JD-TWINS
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Everything posted by JD-TWINS
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My impression of Rule 5 is that the guy has to be on MLB roster - maybe wrong? Anyway, $2.5M is well spent v. having a guy that has 75 AAA at bats……..unimpressive AB’s as well ……..,can’t go there. Trade for a Catcher - young guy that can play - not a high draft pick that’s “expected to pan out eventually”. Give up players to solve this - trade Jeffers to fill the young guy’s spot in trade partner organization. Pitching & an everyday player - whatever they need to piece together to bring the right guy to the Twins.
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I was hoping they may have more time, and could have traded Vazquez and a young arm and $2M somewhere to acquire D’Arnauld as a free agent for $6M/yr ………would have had a 2 year plan and saved $2M/yr. and had better offense. Even discussing Camargo as a potential option (other than emergency injury replacement) is silly to me. .298 OBP at AAA doesn’t translate to MLB consideration unless he’s elite behind the plate - he’s not. Not an option out of Spring Training or probably ever. In a perfect world they trade Jeffers - Castro - Matthews - Paddack - Henriquez to AZ for their Catcher (Moreno) and Jordan Montgomery (Twins take on $12M). AZ gets rid of a mutually bad situation with Montgomery and they get value back! Twins flip Montgomery to Red Sox along with Duran and another piece (Miranda?) for 1B Tristan Casas. To me, targeting Casas and doing whatever to achieve that end is worthwhile. Pertinent here, solves Catcher issues! Also, saves $18.5M. The $$ saved and the individuals can change but the acquisition of those 2 guys allows Team to compete with anyone.
- 53 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- christian vazquez
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Tough to trade guys that can’t earn a spot in the present club……I like them both. They both earned my respect in ‘24. I had high expectations for Wallner and he was brutal early……really came back and produced for 10 weeks! Larnach looked like a professional hitter and just kept exuding more confidence and a calm at the plate. PEN might be OK if it’s erasable ink…. I do think they will be mainstays in the line-up!!
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I agree on the 2.0WAR (or less) veterans being signed for whatever $$, doesn’t make sense …….just play Martin & Kiersey as with through mid-May and hope one of them takes off……..let Emma get more AB’s at AAA so he can drop into a slot by June 1. Don’t need Cahna or Grichuk or similar!
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What do you think his chances are to play decent to good defense in CF and hit similarly to Martin? Seriously. To me that should be a real expectation……300 AB’s - hit .245 - .255 or better - 20 doubles - 9-10 HR - good defense - 90 OPS or better. A fast #9 hitter while Rodriguez develops OR a bridge until they make a trade at the deadline if needed.
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Nobody should expect a “healthy” Buxton to start more than 85 games in CF…….another 25 at DH……that’s a positive volume of action for him! If Kiersey platoons predominantly v. RH pitching, he can pick up 65-75 starts in CF and another 15-20 between LF & RF. He hasn’t shown that he should be relied upon to start more than 90-100 games in the SHOW…..hasn’t shown he should be relied upon to start more than 15 games so far. Kiersey - Martin - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner is the OF …….. Castro (if Julien & Lee & Keaschall can hit some in the Spring) may be available for a bunch of innings in OF if he’s not traded. I’d probably mix Castro with another piece or two in a trade. I think Kiersey gives them a bridge to Emma &/or trade deadline acquisition.
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Agreed! Lots of potential moveable pieces: Duran - Jeffers or Vazquez - Castro - Julien - Paddack - Henriquez - Miranda - Matthews ……..just to name a few. Need a BAT at Catcher or 1B or both!! Personally, I’m fine with not making any OF moves outside the organization. Castro, if not traded, can play LF & CF as needed….Larnach - Buxton/Keirsey - Wallner - Martin are fine with me while Emma gets more ready and Jenkins is a possibility for ‘26.
- 34 replies
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- michael tonkin
- justin topa
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Gotta hit to be available in front of Keaschall - I have little confidence in the other 2B candidates ability with the bat! I think he’s in St. Paul by end of April if he doesn’t start there out of Spring Training…….@ TARGET by end of June.
- 25 replies
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- luke keaschall
- andrew morris
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No more difficult to throw from 2B in St. Paul v. AA - you’re right! Needs to get to highest level sooner than later. Hoping he’s in Minneapolis by late June!
- 25 replies
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- luke keaschall
- andrew morris
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Montas had a few (6-7) very encouraging outings here in Cincinnati. …….similar results over a couple less outings in Milwaukee. He also had a pretty big number of 4-7 run outings over 3-6 innings. He was the epitome of zero consistency. David Festa can do every bit as well & hopefully, better!! Picking up average pitchers for considerable $$ or for low $$ just doesn’t make sense to me. Team has guys with decent stuff at AAA and the major concern with them is consistency. Anybody available under $16M/yr is a major risk when it comes to consistency. Then there’s Blake Snell & his issues with consistency and injury …… for $35M.
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To me, it looks pretty clear that Hays would come in around $6.4M in ‘25, per the post above. His capabilities shown in ‘24 would lead one to stick with the “hard pass” comment from another here. Keep Castro, as he is just as good of an outfielder with capabilities to play 3 spots in the infield. Same cost. Right handed Castro doesn’t fit the bill but Hays doesn’t appear to be a good move w/o a bunch of risk. Better off using youth and rotating them for opportunities with their available options. Can live with Martin’s OF production and defense if they upgrade at 1B!
- 65 replies
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- austin hays
- byron buxton
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I propose a complex set of moves that basically has Jax going to the closer role for this specific post. I propose trading Jeffers - Matthews - Henriquez to D-backs for their young catcher Moreno and Jordan Montgomery. Twins take on $13M of his $25M salary. AZ gets rid of Montgomery and gets a reasonable Catcher in Jeffers along with two young, upside arms. Twins then trade Duran (replaces Jansen) - Montgomery - Paddack - Miranda to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (1B). Castro may need to go to Boston instead of Miranda……..Miranda or Castro give them 3B depth for Devers and Miranda could fill 1B - Boston’s preference? TWINS shed $4.7M - $3.7M - $7.5M in moving these guys. An additional $6.3M if Castro is involved. $22.2M to spend. Most importantly they obtain a Catcher & First Baseman along with FA $$ available to fill a need. Dream world??
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71 innings v. 171 innings …… the reliever v. starter expectations. His pitch effectiveness will diminish, fact that everyone would acknowledge, including Jax. His max level effort out of the Pen, to me, gives a false impression of what he could be as a starter. Now, some due to psychology, it’s a big deal for him to pitch more than one inning - or 25 pitches per outing. He averages 2.82 innings over the 25 week season (71 innings) v. 6.78 innings as a starter over 25 week season (171 innings). Starting is a different world, from the ability to be effective - to maintaining health - to reinventing what’s going on between your ears.
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If he insists, we have to let him be a SP - why? He works for the Team & will be paid around $2.5M for ‘25. This is hardly an indentured servant position………do companies pay/promote the 26 year olds that think they could or should be Vice President of the operation? No. Employees need to be treated fairly but not completely coddled. The Twins gave him an opportunity to be a starter & it didn’t work - they have worked together to develop him into an excellent reliever. Both sides have contributed and both sides have benefited. I think they should elevate Jax to being the closer and trade Duran & others for a Bat. Team gets better - Jax makes more $$ going forward - everybody wins. He doesn’t need to be tried as a starter because that’s what he wants to do………Royce Lewis wants to play SS but that’s not happening! Team doesn’t need a 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation that they have to be concerned about after he reaches 125 innings. Also, they need to maintain their edge in the bullpen as well & Jax is key to achieving that end.
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IMO, Jax throwing 71 innings of .87WHIP baseball is a tremendous value & should not be blended into the rest of the relief corp - he is the backbone of the Bullpen. The risks listed are all very real & probable that one of them becomes reality. Innings limitations at some point and zero gas left in the tank at some point are a very likely scenario even if he’s having great success as a starter. It’s my assumption that he wants to start to be worth more $$. I would try to remedy that by trading Duran and another piece(s) to get a performance BAT and move Jax to the closer role. Highest leverage and more perceived value for future contracts/paydays. The AAA depth with Matthews - Morris - C. Lewis - Raya all point to Jax staying in the Pen being the right move. IMO, Festa is ahead of Paddack for a rotation spot. Paddack helps add great depth to the Pen if Duran is traded or Paddack is traded with another guy or two for a youthful option at some position.
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“Trout had to go back down” ……I realize this is not uncommon. My thought is to minimize this possibility for Emma and not to experiment at the MLB level. I would like to see any player try to work out a big % of his potential struggles somewhere other than in the Twin’s line-up. I don’t think that bringing a guy up in April means he will be solid by June 15. Twins need to focus on winning - you and I are just fans with differing opinions……..how they approach it won’t be solved here. Personally, I don’t see anyone (Emma) that’s only had success through AA (while frequently hurt) take the place of a more proven veteran bat from outside the system (FA) when Spring Training breaks. Have a nice Thanksgiving!!
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Sorry - I need to find your list. Didn’t notice you addressed the others that are better than our 3 guys…..will check it out.
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Outside of the Dodgers & Seattle…..who are these 3 pitchers on one staff that are OBVIOUSLY better than the Twin’s top 3? Statistically, when Ryan went down the Twins were in the mix for a top 3, many of Lopez good innings/starts came in August & shortly after that timing & that boosted his place on the list. Texas has some nice names that are on the 40 man but they don’t pitch much. Pittsburgh is in the come with their top 3. Maybe there’s another one or two?
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I disagree in general but can’t argue that it’s some major strength. Ryan’s health is the biggest question mark for me. I don’t see Paddack in the rotation ……… traded, or he’s the “upgrade” in the Pen. Not going to look it up but SWR must have started 25 games in ‘24……,to me, he’s a reasonable #4/#5 guy & I think he proved that…..ran out of gas last 4-5 starts. I like Festa. Don’t see a real downside having him slotted #5/#4 in the rotation. After a Top 5, Team will be in a similar spot to most clubs, they’ll have to rely on unproven young guys to back fill…….not too many Teams outside of Seattle - L.A. have a long string of quality starters 1-5 plus a few.
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Definitely, if he earns a spot!! My contention is an organization doesn’t promote a guy to get seasoned at the MLB level unless they are rebuilding, i.e. the Brewers when Yount was 19 OR if they have Machado, Tatis, Boegarts, Kim, & Profar to carry the offensive load. To me the Twins are in a win now mode……all the rostered guys need to be competent to produce. Being enamored with the new shiny toy in the minors with great stats at High A or AA or wherever, can’t drive how a team tries to win in the season that’s 4 months ahead. I’m talking in generalities here, not just about Emma. 30 organizations have AAA teams for a reason and development (polishing for the Show) is at least 75% of AAA function. Skipping that is not prudent in my opinion. If he tears the cover off and hits a handful of curves/sliders hard in Spring Training, give him a shot.
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If Teams want guys to be superstars they should jump AAA? That seems to be a pretty out of the norm thinking. MLB isn’t a place to season guys because they’ve been hyped in an organization…….Lee is a great example. Not a huge Lee guy myself…….TEAM needs to win games not focus on creating superstars by letting them practice an an everyday line-up spot. A guy that has serious potential flaws in his approach at the plate in lower levels (doesn’t swing enough to keep MLB pitchers honest & struggles with breaking balls) needs to work on things and have success of some sort relative to those flaws before coming to the Show.
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I don’t understand the logic behind a 22 year old not gaining value in spending 2-5 months at AAA. The guy had 200 plus AB’s in ‘24. IMO, he needs to gain experience AND play a couple months straight without getting hurt. He doesn’t hit off speed stuff well per the post. Just doesn’t seem like a guy who is near ready for the Show. I really don’t see where he would play the first couple months while he’s practicing his hitting approach in the Bigs? He doesn’t displace any of the current 3 options. He needs AB’s and repetition and guidance before he starts dealing with MLB pitchers every day.
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Twins Daily 2025 Top Prospects: #3 Luke Keaschall, INF
JD-TWINS replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
BTW - free agent 1B, coveted by many around baseball, Christian Walker is 6’0” and he seems pretty good defensively at 1B!……..Keaschall is 6’0” as well. -
Twins Daily 2025 Top Prospects: #3 Luke Keaschall, INF
JD-TWINS replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
So, I agree with you that the article reads that he may not be optimal at 1B……..however, this year’s Gold Glove winner, Carlos Santana is 5’11” & 210lb while Keaschall is a “short” 6’0” & 190 lb. Seems like he’d have the athleticism to be fine at 1B. I thought he got to St. Paul before having surgery……..sounds like Best Case for Twins debut may be August. Bummer. I was hoping he may be at 2B or 1B daily by end of June. Just hope he’s healthy and can actually compete by mid-February! -
I like the current Pen potential. Paddack, to me, is a great fit and has the mentality to throw 75 innings over 45-50 appearances. That fits his innings capabilities over a season, with good stuff in essentially every outing. $7.5M is worthwhile for a bridge guy to get from beginning of 6th through 7th. I’d seriously consider, if budget cannot change, trading Duran with other pieces to get a BAT. Jax - closer…….bigger $$ value going forward so he forgets the “2nd chance as starter” whim! Alcala - Blewett - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Tonkin - Topa - Varland (3 guys are hurt - 2 guys don’t perform - still have 8 solid guys) ……….. Canterino - Prielipp if healthy later in Summer ………. Raya in late August out of Pen as well……. if they can keep Duran and get a serious BAT by other means this Pen is elite! Without Duran the Pen is still very solid!!
