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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Live in Cinti……Steer was voted Team MVP in his Rookie season in ‘23. His BA dipped from .271 to .221 in ‘24 (big time streaky). Over 2 years he’s averaged 157 games played - 89 RBI - 107 OPS+ - 2.25 WAR - he plays 3-4 positions. He IS the right handed hitting Corner Outfielder the Twins are continually looking for as a FA. The trade was made - can’t do anything about that but Steer is a solid pro and the Reds are very happy to have him. DeLaCruz - Steer - Nolve - McClean to a man ALL think CES is the best hitter among them based on their AAA exposure - they were all ecstatic when he was initially called up……not happened for him yet but there’s still a successful big leaguer potential with CES as he gets healthy.
  2. JD-TWINS
    There are a million different comments here on the sale subject - gotta chime in a bit. I gotta say that the FO getting static routinely here doesn’t really make much sense to me. They had a progression of salary % increases year over year since the beginning of their tenure - then 2024’s budget reverted back to 2021 spending. This is a full year after committing $35M/yr to Correa. The FO then assembled a Team for the $130M budget that was 17 games over .500 in mid-August. Injuries (Ryan) and more directly, the offense, killed the Team’s chances. Not really a FO problem IMO. The minor league system seems to be graded fairly well relative to the rest of Baseball - the pitching pipeline seems to be working and has a bit of depth. I don’t get why the new owners would pull the pin on the current FO without at least giving them a one or two year runway with a more competitive (Top 14-17) budget going forward?
  3. JD-TWINS
    ………never hurts to have a motivated buyer!
  4. JD-TWINS
    He doesn’t have to be a Top 10 CFer to play there. I think he at least continues to play OF through ‘26……maybe through his contract as he can finish up in LF. If Jenkins has the potential to be ready by ‘26 Buc could move over sooner than later. Buc is ranked #3 as CF, for what it’s worth, for ‘25 by MLB Network. If the years past ‘25 are the worry relative to the $$ factor with Buxton’s contract ………. “meaningful in their situation” seems to be less of an impactful issue with new ownership. going forward. I realize that new owners don’t guarantee a spending spree but I do think that a payroll between $155-$170 for ‘26 seems like a realistic number. Thoughts?
  5. JD-TWINS
    I’d agree. Cannot argue with his typical limited availability! However, even MLB Network’s 2025 rankings for CF’s has Buxton as #3 in Baseball - up from #7 at beginning of 2024. Even with mixed assumptions on availability, his offensive upside and more than competent defense pushes him up pretty far on the CF ladder. Performs above his salary relative to WAR - under Team control - seems to fit the mold for what this list is built around?
  6. JD-TWINS
    I realize the exercise isn’t meant for you to energize the fans here. Lee at #6 is just difficult to get excited about……Julien at #20, even 14 spots lower, is more difficult. Both young and both have had past success….. obviously, inexpensive and controllable. Not real comfortable that either can hit at MLB level, at least in the near term. Fingers crossed for these 2. Thanks for the list!
  7. JD-TWINS
    After a few months, I’m not thrilled with Lee. Have no problem with this type of move. It may be a year late as Mariners saw Brooks at the plate in ‘24 as well. He’s young though! I live in Cincinnati and Castillo is a bit streaky but he typically gives a Team 3.5-4.5 good months per season. Would not turn him away if available. His WHIP has been solid and pretty consistent over last 3 seasons. His K/BB ratio is good. 30 starts and 175 innings last year. Career 3.56ERA & 3.63ERA in ‘24. He’s a lot like Lopez with one less pitch. As you know, they have 3-4 other decent rotation guys.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Acquiring a mid rotation arm……how or with what? 20 other Teams would like to sign a mid rotation arm as well Whether SWR is a 4th or 5th starter as they run out 5 guys every six days, seems immaterial. Festa has better stuff - he pitched approximately 10 outings in ‘24 - he’s 2 years older than SWR - he’s ready to go. IF Paddack isn’t traded it seems to me he’s an emergency/spot starter while working from relief 80% of the time. Doubt he sticks around……hope he does! Nobody thought SWR would last a month last year & he gave them 4 months before drifting last 4-5 weeks. Don’t have the luxury of getting everyone entering the rotation to a perfect spot.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Everyone else in Baseball knows his history as well - everyone has access to data as well. Pretty tough to get any value in trade - I think we all agree there. $7.5M and a guy the organization knows, for 85-100 innings of relief combined with half-dozen spot starts seems like a decent value. Only 3-4 of the starts are likely to be of good quality. My “hope” is that with decent rest and lower innings he can be a good 2 inning bridge guy in the PEN…….something like Sands was earlier in ‘24. He pitched in 3 outings in ‘23 and gave up 3 in one outing and none in the other two - 5 total innings. Can’t really make a “reliever” judgement on that amount of work coming back from year long injury……,.He then threw 3 2/3 in the playoffs over 2 games and he had a .27 WHIP and struck out 6 guys……..doesn’t make him Mariano Rivera, but it is at least somewhat encouraging. IMO, he’s a better #6-#7 rotation filler option than any of the guys in AAA, including Matthews……….at least through May-June. I guess to me, instead of trading him to be some other Team’s insurance, Team keeps him for $7.5M. ……..I think it makes more sense than trading him for next to nothing and then signing Danny or similar for $5M.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Paddack trade doesn’t seem to bring back much value v. keeping him. Use him as max effort guy for 60-70 innings from PEN. Use him 5-7 times as a spot starter and Team gets 100 innings from him, which IMO, he’s capable of without health issues. Good value at $7.5M. A Vazquez trade either costs prospect capital or Cash to share his $10M contract cost. He brings decent defense - good clubhouse attitude - continuity with current Staff. His offense is easily better than anything Camargo would produce. Keep him, unless another young, MLB ready Catcher can be obtained via trade. IMO, Castro can be covered by multiple others that will all be on the roster anyway. Lee - Martin - Kiersey - Miranda can come together to handle the void created with Castro’s departure. Trade Castro - Matthews - Julien - Henriquez - Martin - Duran in some combination to bring back a MLB ready Catcher or an offensive upgrade at 1B……..both would be great! Vazquez or Jeffers should be available to get these positions filled adequately. Festa & SWR have #4 & #5 rotation spots covered. Morris - Culpepper - Lewis - Adams - Raya for rotation depth (assuming Matthews is a trade chip) Varland - Headrick - Topa - Paddack added to some combination of last year’s PEN seems like a serious upgrade.
  11. JD-TWINS
    It seems the F.O. is operating toward a goal of “around where we are at currently”……$140Mish. But, I completely agree on the $130M being stated as “the floor” for this year’s payroll. Haven’t seen anything stating that the Team/FO can’t spend a nickel more than $130M! I’ve stated this logic before, why would the Pohlad’s try to save $12-$20M this year at the detriment of the Team’s success in ‘25 and their level of buyer attraction dropping. Doesn’t seem to be difficult to re-coup $20M in a $1.45B sale. Right?
  12. JD-TWINS
    Correa played 86 games and had 3.7 WAR in ‘24. I understand the frustration with injuries but he played decent Shortstop & hit .310 & was on the All-star Team…….stating he doesn’t have much positive value seems not to be very logical. Julien is a completely different story relative to value as he hit .199 and had a -.2 WAR ……also, struck out looking more than anyone else in baseball. Then there’s his defense.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Only been 3 comments to this point…….am pretty surprised that nobody commented on Correa dropping to 16 from 6 though. How can he be a less valuable asset than SWR? I understand cost and health are involved in the analysis. I like SWR as a 5th starter! He’s a competitor and he performed very well for 4.5 -5 months. The fact that his ability to get through 5 innings is limited coupled with his drift in performance later in the season makes me concerned that his success was due to newness through the League. He lacks an out pitch or he needs to refine his location capabilities with his slider as that out pitch. He’s young!!! A 2.0 WAR was very solid and a 17-11 record in his games started is very encouraging. Correa hit .310 with a 3.7 WAR and he played in only 86 games. He’s a solid shortstop that projects to play 125 - 135 games/season. He’s paid a crazy amount of money - agreed. If offered up for a trade in the market - even at his salary - I gotta think more teams are kicking the tires with real value coming back to the Twins v. trying to move SWR. His health is a concern but I would argue that this is the case for every body in the organization! Just seems to me that he is not really different than last year (better, due to ‘24 numbers) but he’s managed to drop to within 4 spots of Eddie Julien……..Julien could easily be viewed as # 38, IMO.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. Bat speed should be able to be enhanced. Not looking for HR’s but harder hit ground balls and line drives. …….I do think he needs to find a mental space to be able to let it go a bit more ……. a sense of confidence and aggressiveness with his typical “first two strike swings” in the box.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Gotta fill holes - can’t just wait & see, IMO. Santander is a draft choice and about $24M/yr for 3 years at a minimum. Mountcastle seems to be a realistic acquisition possibility. Can’t send anyone from current rotation though. I’d prefer moving Lewis or Keaschall to 1B…….Castro can play 2B almost daily until somebody else can hit enough to play regularly. TD readers/contributors repeatedly suggest Julien could be - will be the answer at 1B. I don’t get that thinking at all? From above, “…Julien’s bat struggled in ‘24, but there are signs he will bounce back in ‘25…..”……..What are these signs? How does anyone know this to be true? Why would anyone think this makes sense?………he lead the MLB in strikeouts looking and the next closest guy had over 200 more AB’s…….he hit .199 for the year and his OBP was down 90 points ……his OPS+ was down nearly 60 points. He hit 1 HR after April 27th in his MLB at bats…..through September. I don’t get how he instills any confidence for ‘25 at this point.
  16. JD-TWINS
    I sure hope he’s physically capable when Spring Training starts - a decent Spring and a couple solid months in St. Paul …….. he could be our floating answer between 1B & 2B!
  17. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand the casual nature that Wallner & Larnach are discussed with here (at TD)? Larnach was viewed as Emma is now 3 years ago. He’s had health issues but IMO he really stepped forward in becoming a professional hitter and key piece in ‘24. Wallner had the best 2nd half on the Team. Power - big arm - why consider trading him to make room for Emma? Both of these corner guys are pieces in the Top 6 of the current line-up. We all “hope” Emma will be good. I’d like to keep all 3 and if Emma can beat somebody out through competition, one of them can DH until there is a clear cut answer in the future.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Prielipp & Canterino are hurt nearly 90% of the time. I am hoping that one or both can get 50-60 innings in this season as relievers. To me that seems to be their only potential path. With health, possible to see one of them at Target in September. Raya is/has been young and thus limited due to continual physical maturing. I like him in relief by late August or September at MLB level.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I understand your slant but Lewis being moved to 2B mid-season & a near Gold Glove right fielder wanting to stick with RF is a bit apples to oranges with Jax. He’s a relief pitcher and the proposed changes are just referencing which innings he’s pitching. Obviously, bridge guy to Closer role is may comparison. Being a starter is a big change in batter to batter efforts & pitch mix, etc. ……..moving our best relief pitcher to a starter’s role because “he’d like to give it another try” is a thing we do not need either, IMO.
  20. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the “worry” with Jax? He’s a human being with emotions, yes, but he’s also a former Air Force officer. He’s of high character and used to taking orders. He is an employee. The concern about him “being unhappy” to be in the Closer role seems to be way over the top to me. Jax - Funderburk - Topa - Blewett - Henriquez - Alcala - Stewart - Headrick - Varland - Paddack - Castellano - Tonkin……….try to sign Coloumbe for $4-$5.5M or like guy. Keep Paddack for 85-100 Pen innings and a handful of spot starts. Canterino or Prielipp or Raya to supplement Pen if needed by August is more of a blue sky thought but one of them may be able to contribute. To me, Duran is a real chip that can bring back offensive help. Gotta fill void at 1B and Catcher. There are other approaches but Team won’t get anywhere if they don’t trade value for value.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. Gotta get a “real” player for a guy as valuable as Duran! I have no problem trading him while his value is still very good/excellent and moving Jax to Closer. The “needs”, to me are offensive!! 1B & Catcher are positions without organizational depth and of immediate need at the MLB level. Don’t need a prospect arm…….,Morris - Matthews - Lewis - Raya are those prospect arms. Couple another guy (Matthews), with Duran, & get a real 1B or Catcher…….not a couple “controllable…….Top 10 organization prospects”……need an immediate above average contributor. It’s a high bar! A young starter and a Top 10 reliever in the game (arguably) is worth “real player” back. IF it’s a Top 5 organization option at Catcher (for only Duran), then you keep both Jeffers & Vazquez to start the year and possibly look to move 1 guy at the deadline. Duran’s salary is projected at $3.7M - not $1.8M suggested above, so there is minor $$ help in moving him as well ……..not the driver for the move since he is of great value! Bottom line is that I think Duran is a big chip! Also, Jax is an employee. He wants an opportunity to make more money. If he’s a Closer and he performs there’s as good a chance he makes as much in that role as he could as an average starter. Comments about him wanting to be a starter aren’t going to drive how the Team behaves. ……….I equate this to the 28 year old that has had some success in business and “wants” to be Vice President……..not happening.
  22. JD-TWINS
    It’s baseball. There’s no crystal ball for FO personnel nor TD contributors. Pretty sure, and I think you are as well, that the FO evaluates talent, position depth, upside, & floor for each player. There’s always “opportunities” but will they pan out? We suggest things - personal thoughts……..FO gets hired & fired based on their abilities over a large sample to perform like a crystal ball. I understand you’d like action v. no action. Not sure who the players that held value last year that were not moved (Kirilloff/Julien?)? To me, Julien was a really nice find after ‘23 & fully expected .250 BA - .350 OBP - 20 HR in ‘24………he was pathetic after April 27. Not sure how any talent evaluator can see that type of thing coming with no change in the player’s health? Anyway, I too hope we pull off a nice trade or two!
  23. JD-TWINS
    .274 - .258 - .283 - .276 ……..Christian Vazquez BA’s from ‘22 back to ‘19. He’s done it before. Can he regress back toward his mean performance at the plate? If he hits .240 plus it would be a nice improvement over his past 2 seasons………..I get the skepticism! Is it crazy for the FO to just swallow that $14.7M for the two Catchers is an acceptable number? Camargo certainly isn’t a performance upgrade. Is this thinking on Vazquez crazy? Most here assume that a Vazquez trade will only really net a $6M savings due to the need to cover a portion of his salary if moved. After they sign his replacement - what’s the net gain for payroll flexibility? Seems pretty minimal. Weigh the $ savings v. continuity in Clubhouse and familiarity with the Staff. If they can trade for a young Catcher and/or move Vazquez with a pitcher or some prospect to avoid spending anything against his salary, great. Just saying that his pluses along with his potential probability to “regress positively” may make him worthwhile to hang on to.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Not sure I understand this? Castro should have been mentioned on the list of potential guys to regress, that’s my assumption. He played in too many games (158) in 2024 and that wore on his sharpness at the plate and it chipped away at his health. I’d like to see him get another dozen or more days off for a total of maybe 140-145 games. In my opinion, that nobody will probably share, is that he regressed in 2024. He played 124 games in ‘23 with a WAR of 2.7……he played 158 games in ‘24 with a WAR of 1.6. He hit .247 in ‘24 & his career average is .248. His OPS was 33 points less in ‘24 than the previous year. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball, but I think Castro will have every bit as good a year in ‘25 with a probable uptick……….. needs a little more rest sprinkled in through the season.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Decent pitching with well below offense was much of the last 6 weeks in 2024. Even with his ups & downs, can’t afford to move Wallner for more pitching. Can add a guy or two via trade or modest FA signing but can’t trade away any of the Top 6 hitters.
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