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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    My understanding was Pohlad’s wanted $1.7B AND a big chunk of their $400M debt covered. Seems I saw that numerous times. (estimated $2B total) They gave up 20% for $430M. $1.5B sale less the $430M (plus some probable additional “return”) leaves them with just north of $1B. Doesn’t seem like a very effective plan for them.
  2. JD-TWINS
    That’s my point……. they want ROI. Investment isn’t a loan……seems to me they are on the hook with full exposure to varying asset value going forward. Can’t have greatly reduced revenues from your customer base over any length of time and sustain profitability. I get cost reduction for a season but the value of the asset diminishes if they have a greatly reduced fan interest. The savings on salary get off-set by 300,000 less people in the stands per season and thousands of fewer TV paid viewerships and reduced memorabilia/clothing sales …… over time, while the asset’s value is diminished. The investors don’t want 20% of an additional $35M - $50M in bottom line for a year or two (which I don’t see being attainable) before it dwindles against $430M of $$ sunk. They want to make money on a pending sale! If the asset doesn’t appreciate on a fairly steep rate they don’t see a good return, maybe for a decade or more……. that’s not their timing model. If Organization squeezes a $60M bottom line for a year or two by reducing payroll more and not spending anything, that’s $12M/yr for the $430M invested……. not attractive ……..The asset has to appreciate for them to be whole! Maybe the strategy from investors is to stagnate the asset value for a bit so they can get the other 80% on the cheap in upcoming years? Not saying the investors are rah rah fans but if a product isn’t attractive the bottom line shrinks pretty quickly…..even with revenue sharing.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Maybe they want some fresh faces in the Scouting Dept? …….. the $1m savings doesn’t add up in anyone’s book……..technology is being used with much lower paid IT guys being used across the game. I don’t see this move having any bearing on how they would spend on roster. If nobody comes to the park - nobody buys TV subscriptions, there’s no profits to help get investors whole. If they fire the Coaching Staff on October 5th nobody is going to think there will be zero coaches next year due to a $$ savings move. Nobody spends $400M on a sinking ship approach - has to be an expectation to be competitive via modest spending!
  4. JD-TWINS
    ‘26 PEN Scenario: Prielipp - Sands - Raya - Funderburk - Topa - Adams - Matthews - Hensley (or like) & the spend is $8M more than today. ’26 ROTATION Scenario: Lopez - Ryan - SWR - Ober - Bradley/Abel/Festa ………. one of which may end up in PEN. Hensley may not be the guy? Somebody will be out there as a FA…….,to me, Matthews is another Varland with a bigger pitch mix. In short bursts from PEN he’d have elite velocity and brings backend upside!! Adams is best suited for an inning at a time. To me, this staff works!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    The details I don’t understand with all the negativity on spending for ‘26 (from pundits and fans alike)……….$400M of investment and an ownership stake doesn’t happen from anyone without EXPECTATIONS! If Team doesn’t spend nobody will buy TV packages/tickets/swag/etc. ………. there has to be some expectation (caveat) for “competitiveness” in ‘26 with the investors - has to be. Nobody gives Pohlad’s $400M as a charitable act - right? They are at $95M total now for ‘26………. there may be a defensive FA Catcher available for $4M - a 1B option at 15M - FA relievers at average of $5M x 2………..that’s $29M. I think they could easily go to $135M……that’s $40M over current total salary………also, it’s $20M less than they spent in 2023…..3 seasons later. I know nearly everyone here (rightfully so) passionately dislikes the current majority owners and their lack of spending & mediocre management ………cannot create interest for a future Sale nor “make a profit”, with a non-competitive Club!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Kelly - Presley - Ozuna are all on very backside of their careers…….Presley might be available for $2.5M & then may be of interest on a 1 year deal. My assumption is Naylor is more expensive than other guys & probably too much risk v reward due to needed length of his deal? To me, Arraez sucks as a less-off hitter because he has zero speed and doesn’t bring any energy to the Top of the line-up. He’s adequate at 1B & could obviously DH as desired. I would pay him as much as $14-$16M/yr for 3 years if he’d go for it ……. and I’d bat him 5th in line-up every day for about 150 games. He’s 175-200 hits/year and he’d be a minimum of 90 RBI guy batting in middle of line-up……..previous RBI totals don’t matter because he’s been hitting in the wrong spot for his skill set, IMO. Buxton - Keaschall - Larnach - Lewis - Arraez - Jeffers - Wallner - Lee - Martin ……. this line-up could use some additional juice either at 1B or DH…….but, I think with 2 FA PEN guys and a healthy rotation, this line-up is very competitive………. Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins can possibly supplement OF from June forward? Again, to me, Arraez (or anyone) that can provide 175-190 hits from the #5 spot in the line-up will produce a bunch of runs!! Don’t need HR’s with RISP - need balls in play and the ability to keep innings going - not a gut that strikes out 25-35% of the time but hits 30HR in a “162 game fantasy season”. As little as I like him, there’s no doubt that Lee has 20 HR power. He’s SLOWLY getting better at the plate and I think that his progress will slowly continue - no need for Gleybar Torres . Keaschall to 1B or DH and occasional Corner OF ……. freeing 2B for Lee, regularly. I’d prefer one of the recent #1 Picks at SS early in ‘26.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Arraez has 168 hits and is hitting .287 - he’s got 3 batting titles prior. ……. not sure what constitutes a good season???
  8. JD-TWINS
    My comment was, if they haven’t shared a plan forward or made real moves by December, “let them have it”………Am not “carrying water” for an ownership family I can’t stand. Am being realistic. The Timberwolves don’t share their player strategy - nor do the other 2 franchises in the Twin Cities, so why would the baseball Team?… P&G doesn’t share their strategic moves with thousands of employees…….. The Board knows and some leaders of divisions……..the rank & file aren’t apprised of strategic moves until they are ready to be marketed. With a piss poor ownership group that reduces spending from ‘23, TWICE in the following 2 seasons, particularly after committing $35M/yr to one guy………it makes it pretty difficult for ANYONE sitting in the GM/President seat……so blaming Falvey can be justified in some specific cases but the REAL blame lies with the ownership. None of the blame placing means that anyone “owes the fans, nor Byron Buxton, or any player” a map of what they think they are planning to do going forward. Correa had a no trade so “to dump his salary amidst the process of giving up in ‘25” they had to have a discussion with him - not because they think he’s some super wise soul nor because they owed him anything. They wanted him to do them a favor.
  9. JD-TWINS
    To me, Julien’s defense isn’t even part of the conversation……….ha has nearly zero power after hitting 17 HR’s in part of a first full season……..he can’t hit .200!!! He has no business on the roster. Miranda is obviously gone. Clemons may get tested next week as he hit 3HR’s & a double last night. He’s a fallback, 13th guy on roster do to his defensive flexibility in ‘26 - doubtful. …….. SWR has to stick, somewhere/somehow.
  10. JD-TWINS
    If Topa’s stuff and Adam’s stuff are considered “reasonable” for the bullpen going forward, how can they not think SWR isn’t able to throw to 3-7 batters per outing? He’s only going to be 24 & he has 4 years of control left ………. how is he potentially a decent 5th starter but not good enough to throw out of the PEN? I don’t know he isn’t the 5th guy in rotation that then rolls into the PEN if someone else becomes a better option.
  11. JD-TWINS
    DITTO on all points. Sonny Gray left for locale to his home & guaranteed $$$$. The B.S. about Baldelli and how he handles the Rotation is nuts. In’23 the Rotation had most innings pitched through August because they had a competent rotation - unlike the Chris Archer days prior and David Festa/SWR rotation since then. Ober/Ryan/Looez ALL pitch into the 6th & 7th routinely if “they are healthy” and if they are not in the midst of an “unusually high pitch count”. Players play and that’s how games are won……Earl Weaver - Sparky Anderson - Joe Torre among numerous others, all state to a man, “good players make good managers!”
  12. JD-TWINS
    Didn’t look hard at comments because my assumption is it’s hate or a whole bunch of hate? F.O. ……… plenty of decent trades and solid FA signings under this regime ……. certainly approaching double digit failures as well, to me, that’s baseball. Cannot go from $154M in ‘23 to $135M in ‘24 to $125M in ‘25 (now under $100M for last 2 months of ‘25) …….and expect better Win/Loss …….not realistic! Can site failures all day but this reduction in salary spend year over year cannot be overcome……particularly when ownership bought into the $35M/yr to Correa. Cannot sign him to those $$ levels and then slash overall spending. Cripples F.O.’s capabilities to better the Club. Lopez hurt - Ober hurt - Festa hurt - Matthews hurt ……….. Paddack was OK but had maybe a 50/50 effectiveness over his starts. Lewis hurt & ineffective - Wallner hurt & ineffective - Keaschall hurt - Correa inneffective …………. to me, these are not F.O. driven problems. Baldelli manages the guys he’s had - PEN was lights out early and better than average up to the deadline………really the only positives with the Roster other than Buxton & a very limited Keaschall. He sends Kiersey, a fringe - speed guy, up to bunt 3 different times over a 3/4 week period and he Butchers it every time. Fans sympathize with Kiersey routinely for not getting consistent AB’s & not enough “bunting practice, due to coaching” and bitch about Baldelli. To me, it’s ridiculous. ………… It’s cited in the article here that his popularity dropped in August (after organization shipped out 10 guys from Roster in 4/5 days) and it leveled in September when the roster was taken into consideration. Same roster in both months, essentially. OWNERSHIP sets the tone with commitment & the hires they make………..this ownership isn’t committed and distances themselves from any accountability!!!!! The ownership is squarely behind the poor results in a broad sense. The Guardians are 75-71 and on the edge of a playoff spot………. this year’s Twins team, with historically average performances by the players, would be right there and assumed to be ahead of this win pace. The team construction, to me, wasn’t the problem (key injuries and lack of performance by PLAYERS) with the lack of success in ‘25.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Bet you didn’t know Guardado & Hunter were coaches in LA until today if you don’t know any Twin’s coaches - right? My assumption is they prefer living in LA vs Chanhassen or like.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree - he’s like the 2nd or 3rd fastest guy on the bases but too slow to play CF? - makes no sense, regardless of his initial reaction time. Assuming Rodriguez can stay healthy enough to play for 2-3 months straight, at any position, is just “hopeful” at this point. Jenkins, I’m assuming, isn’t considered for Big Club until at least later May/June of ‘26. Team needs to concern themselves with 1B (not Clemens daily) & Catcher ……..couple proven PEN guys…… Buxton being moved is just something to write about. OF & Rotation has enough pieces in Sum to find the right answers based on performance in early ‘26………..some may get their foot in the door over next 15 games?
  15. JD-TWINS
    EVERYONE wants to win! Don’t understand why anyone would debate this bottom line premise? ……… loyalty (possibly to a fault), family wishes, and fear of the unknown can cripple anyone’s desire to make a move in any career. He’s human and not just an athlete. Organization has backed the guy heavily & he’s being applauded for surpassing 100 games in back to back seasons. There’s been give and take in the relationship.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Seems they need to be approved prior to transaction - right? Maybe they were part of a group to acquire all control and then split off? Maybe they do not need to be approved if they are not “controlling” interest?
  17. JD-TWINS
    Nothing will change & it will only get worse……🙁 Seems a little dark. FULL rotation in ‘26 - right? Young arms to fill 5 spots in PEN along with a couple FA’s. (Adams - Abel, 3 outs at a time?) Prielipp - Raya & a few other possibilities. Need to acquire Catching depth that’s “ready” and not prospect. This can be trade or FA. Certainly doable……probably not perfect. 1B via FA. OF ………. Larnach - Wallner - Outman - Buxton - Martin - Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins ……, I think they can win with this group. Do they make Castro an offer….,is he a positive? Certainly not too costly. I just don’t see the Club as being that bad. They give up 12 runs every 4/5 days now and lose a tight game every 4/5 days…….. ALL due to 4-5 guys in the PEN not being MLB caliber OR guys that can pitch, being used too often or exposed to too many hitters due to NO options. TEAMS that are 3-8 games above .500 are still in the Playoff hunt on September 11th - pretty attainable bar - one that can be quickly surpassed with some tweaks. Need 2 - FA position signings and 2 PEN signings via FA………..possible to trade for talent but it’s seldom for MLB ready guys & that’s what’s needed. Nobody that has $400M to put into a concern is going to be good with status quo and $100M payroll in MLB…….something positive will happen……..no guarantees it will work.
  18. JD-TWINS
    What is the front office supposed to communicate (or any other business not selling stock) about their plans? What franchises lay out in one season “what the off-season plan is” for the business/franchise? None, or awfully few, from my viewpoint. If there are still crickets in December…….let em have it!!! Until then, they need time to sort things and target specific guys to try and trade for, or sign as FA’s. Pro sports teams don’t expose plans - targeted players - it just isn’t done. Can’t say “we’re going to spend $45M in free agency” ……. agents will eat that up & leverage disappears. They may or may not do well nor what the “fans want”? We’ll see. Deciding they should tell all, in September, doesn’t make sense! From my point of view, again here at TD, the group that threw in $400M have to have some caveats attached to their cash infusion!! STATUS QUO ……..on roster, spending, marketing………isn’t in the cards.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Wallner, as much as I struggle with his plate approach, certainly deserves another year to look over ………. Larnach being considered “too expensive” is nuts ……. he may make just north of $4M in ‘26 ………. he can DH or play either corner OF spot & has a career .765 OPS v. RH pitching. He should certainly hold a spot until Rodriguez or Jenkins are 100% ready for an MLB spot. Can’t take on Roden or Outman as the only placeholders!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Any thoughts on either the ‘24 or ‘25 First Round picks being able to play SS at some point in ‘26? Was hoping Lee may move to 2B or bench guy (back-up across the dirt) at some point unless his level of play elevates.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Just like Michael Hellman in Texas - he’s a star!! 😉
  22. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the assumption by Doc, (paraphrasing) “everyone deserves endless opportunities……”. IT’s PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL not church league softball!!! Kiersey - Miranda - Julien & on & on have had numerous “opportunities” and repeatedly are way worse than sub-par! How did Sano not have enough opportunities? He was in The Show for most of 7 plus years and then went away offensively. In his last full season he struck out 183 times - 34% of his trips to the plate & 39% of the time when he didn’t walk. That was his SEVENTH SEASON in MLB………gotta have some personal responsibility by then! “It’s the philosophy” - “it’s the coaching” David Popkins may get (if there is such a thing?) BEST POSITION COACH in all of MLB this year in Toronto!!! Do I think he’s special? No. Do I think the TWINS PLAYERS sucked in ‘24 and his coaching had nearly zero to do with the huge decline & inconsistency? Yes. Blue Jays have 3 guys above .300 - another above .290 - 6 regulars above .265…………Ty France is hitting .320 in 81AB’s with Toronto and their INEPT hitting coach (Popkins), after being jettisoned from Target Field. I think it might be the Player’s responsibility for their performance.😉
  23. JD-TWINS
    It’s hard, and a lot to deal with between the ears……..his best shot is somewhere else with a fresh start and w/o Royce Lewis squarely in front of him. I wish him well but his steep decline from the guy that went 12-12 in the middle of last summer has washed his chances with the Twins.
  24. JD-TWINS
    All makes sense until the Outman piece (don’t disagree that he may be cooked?) since the Manager/GM don’t need to explain the plan to get someone back on track. This is competitive professional sports and not some politically correct forum. The player acquisition was a flier with some upside potential. Gotta play him to see where he’s at and whether he has tools to continue to work with going forward. Same thing they are doing with Funderburk and Topa in new situations. The organization gave up on “winning” being the driver for balance of ‘25 over a month ago. Outman needs some steady AB’s to see what he can do…….can he show signs of improvement?
  25. JD-TWINS
    I get that Martin’s Season Totals aren’t great nor what Team needs going forward. Maybe it’s because of the mediocrity on the roster now that surrounds him, but I think he’s playing better baseball! He looks competent in the outfield and he’s much more refined in his approach at the plate (has matured?). He’s not going to be a star but he’s definitely a capable #12-#13 guy on the roster. I think Gonzalez, with a few more months of progress, probably displaces him next summer but if Martin progresses just a bit more he’ll stick. To me, Rodriguez is overrated not because he lacks talent to be capable at MLB level but his durability is terrible. Jenkins, to me, isn’t considered to be in the Show until at least June/July. These two guys push Wallner & Larnach to elevate their games or they are pushed aside. A combination of Martin/Lee are the replacements for Castro, IMO. I’d like a quicker & more athletic SS from our system to take that spot in ‘26 on the regular. Need a FA 1B! …….Lewis at 3B - (farm system guy at SS) - Keaschall at 2B……..Lee behind all 3 spots. I still consider Keaschall at 1B & Lee at 2B. Go ahead & sign Castro for 2 years at $9M /yr …….. he’s a know commodity and affordable. So many possibilities if the just spend $140M!!
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