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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
  2. JD-TWINS
    Darvish & Musgrave are locked into San Diego for years - King & Cease are both UFA after ‘25. King has a really good track record…. arguably better than Cease! King is at $8M plus & Cease is at $13M plus in ‘25. I think either can be argued to be superior to the other. SD is more motivated to move the $13M, IMO. Z. Matthews - W. Castro - R. Henriquez for Cease. SD gets a very reasonable PEN option and a fringe MLB ready starter and a solid LF that can bring IF depth. They get 3 players and save $5M at a minimum. Twins trade Paddack - Tonkin - Gonzalez - Julien for Luis Arraez…….SD gets a couple more real MLB arms and shed another $6.5M.
  3. JD-TWINS
    $30M is a piece from $17.2M - I like the aggression though!
  4. JD-TWINS
    ‘25 is definitely his last shot in Minnesota. I don’t ever see him playing SS. I know he hurt his arm 3 years ago - unless he’s still hurt, he was once a shortstop so he therefore has an adequate arm for an OFer. He’s not really “fast” he’s just not Donovan Solano slow - average baserunner is probably fair. Nobody expects the last guy on the bench to be really good at anything……if he can manage LF - a little 2B - a little CF ….,,,he’s a valuable guy to roster………..particularly if Castro gets traded!! He needs to turn into one of the “contact guys” - “situational hitter”…..if he can execute details he’ll probably be part of the 13 rostered guys most of the year.
  5. JD-TWINS
    His instincts as an outfielder suck - he’s athletic & if he played SS at one point his arm is fine. He doesn’t have great OF instincts as he showed both in LF & CF in ‘24. Is athletic enough to have made 4-5 spectacular plays but can look rough on plays just above routine.
  6. JD-TWINS
    They got 28 starts from SWR as a 23 year old…….no doubt, if he stays healthy, that SWR makes the trade just fine from the Twin’s perspective.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Can’t disagree……..My opinion is that it probably has more to do with not being a standout at any position. Managers were trying to find him “a spot.” He’s “adequate enough” to get playing time but doesn’t shine anywhere on defense and at MLB level, is just barely adequate at the plate.
  8. JD-TWINS
    IF Castro is still around, he seems to be the 2nd or 3rd option depending upon Kiersey. Martin is behind Castro as a distant option in CF. At some point, instincts come into play, it’s not all just athleticism in CF.
  9. JD-TWINS
    The best Stat Line in comparing these guys is Berrios will be 31 & SWR will be 24 this season!! …….if Twins can get another couple starts and 30-40 more innings ……he’s a nice piece of the rotation going forward. Maybe a perpetual #4-#5 guy, but effective.
  10. JD-TWINS
    SWR??
  11. JD-TWINS
    So, I get you’re not a Baldelli fan - fine. Making excuses (blaming Baldelli) for Julien’s fiasco of a season is ridiculous though, IMO. The guy had 7 HR by April 27th and he managed 1 more the rest of the year. He lead the majors in strikeouts looking - the next highest backward K total came from a guy with 100 more AB’s. Eddie needs to be seeing a Sports Psychologist about 4 days per week. I’ve never seen a hitter look so mentally locked up at the plate in 55 years of watching baseball. Martin - the organization got him and tried to get him to drive the ball. They tried to get his power stats elevated. Didn’t fit him at all. Through ‘24 he looks overmatched v. power pitchers and I think that’s just his make up as an athlete. This look is 2 years after they let him try to revert back to his natural approach. He’s just a limited MLB hitting talent. To pick out the Manager as the reason he hasn’t been able to be very effective (with consistency) doesn’t seem realistic to me. Baldelli played full seasons in the Show starting at age 21…….he was out with injury his entire 3rd season at age 23. The other 3 seasons, age 21, 22, & 24…….he hit .289 - .280 - .302 and his WAR totals were 2.9 - 3.0 - 3.2 respectively. To continually talk about how he is ignorant on how to approach hitting as a MLB player just seems misguided…….over those first 3 seasons he hit 43HR & had 83 doubles ……he struck out 286 times…. not exactly some power crazed approach at the plate.
  12. JD-TWINS
    So, many thoughts here and not many are very upbeat. I like our talent in the PEN ……our consistent health outlook is sketchy! Certainly reason for skepticism. My PEN (blended as is possible through the year): Paddack - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Blewett - Tonkin - Jax - Duran ………..12 possibilities (maybe 1 or 2 are traded?) ……a potentially effective group!
  13. JD-TWINS
    To me, this is how baseball is played…….. Supposed to be played. If you get a good pitch to hit or if it’s a favorable count one tries to drive the ball. Extra base hits/HR don’t go away……hitters are just smarter with their approach as needed based on the opposing pitcher, the count, and the situation with guys on base and # of outs. The Guardians play this way more often than not. Arraez buzz over the past few days plays into this approach, big time. He had a heavy affect on the Padre hitter’s approach after he came over in late May of ‘24. 170-200 hits in the middle of the Twin’s line-up would be a nice addition with RISP.
  14. JD-TWINS
    His 1st 33 games (22% of his season) were with the Marlins (not exactly Murderer’s Row) ……he also had a slow start in ‘24. He had 75 more AB’s than Castro……Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times………Castro had a 10-15 point better OBP. I’d rather have Arraez hitting with RISP than Castro…….don’t need walks - HBP - K’s with guys in Scoring Position! I put his high contact bat at the 5th or 6th spot and you get protection for the batter in front of Arraez and Luis gets 85 RBI hitting regularly with RISP. High Average doesn’t need to bat 1 or 2. Anybody that averages (576/3) 192 hits per season over past 3 All-star seasons can help score more runs if utilized properly in a line-up.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Keep in mind that Arraez struggled early in the year and that his first 33 games he was hitting in front of Teammates on the Marlin’s roster. Bat him 5th or 6th and utilize his ability to get 175-200 hits to help with RISP! He has value outside of “setting the table.”
  16. JD-TWINS
    Numerous approaches to do both, obviously - one look: Matthews - Vasquez - Castro for Cease ….1 yr (young arm that’s close - Vet Catcher - LF & IF depth)……..sign Luke Maille for #2 Catcher Julien - Paddack - Culpepper - AA guy for Arraez …..1yr (High risk 2B/DH - Vet pitcher w/limited innings - Young improving arm - 3B/1B/DH depth) Cease - Lopez - Ober - Ryan - SWR ……. possible to get 4 guys with 13-16 wins PEN Adds to ‘24 crew Varland - Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Blewett Lee - Lewis - Buxton - Wallner - Correa - Arraez - Larnach - Jeffers - Miranda Maille - Martin - Kiersey - Grichuk/Keaschall?
  17. JD-TWINS
    Vazquez - Matthews (Catcher & fringe MLB ready arm) - Castro (LF & IF depth)….that’s it Gotta be able to acquire a one year contract guy for maximum of 3 players.
  18. JD-TWINS
    So I get some of this but toward the end it seems like we might trade 4-5 guys for Cease and Vazquez isn’t one of them…….my impression was he was their original reason for having a discussion? No way we send more than 3 players total for Cease. As you know, there’s about 27 teams that want Ober, Ryan, or Festa……..they aren’t going anywhere & certainly not for a 1 year guy. Vazquez - Matthews - maybe a minor leaguer? OR, Vazquez - Castro - a lower level arm? I think Raya might be just below Festa in the Twin’s future view.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Castro is undoubtedly a better defender and probably 1.0 WAR better just defensively, easily. Arraez gets negative WAR for his DH at bats. My thought is, if a guy gets 200 hits and only has 1.0 WAR, the defensive negative is dragging his WAR total down ……at 1B or DH Arraez isn’t “hurting” any team defensively, IMO. Also, if a guy gets 200 hits and has 1.0 WAR, he’s hitting in the wrong spot in the line-up! ……,,he doesn’t run well and should be hitting in the 5 or 6 spot. Also, Arraez had a very slow start for him while in Miami for the first 7-8 weeks of the year - not getting driven in much either with the Marlin’s line-up. Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times. Arraez had 75 more AB’s while striking out 121 less times. If there are RISP I would sacrifice the power trade off between these two and the OBP difference. I don’t need a walk or a strikeout with RISP - I need contact and a high probability of a base hit.
  20. JD-TWINS
    They want Vazquez. Cease has 1 year of control. Those are the basics of the deal. I agree, they would like an arm that’s at least “fringe MLB ready”…….to me, Matthews is as high as I go…….maybe consider SWR? Castro, with Vazquez & Matthews, seems to fill out a reasonable package from the Twins.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I do think that a guy that can routinely deliver at the plate is valuable! The conventional thinking in baseball is you bat high average guys “up in the line-up” but I see value in Arraez as a protector of another bat in the line-up and as a guy that can drive in runs with RISP. If he hits 5th or 6th instead of 1st or 2nd he protects Lewis - Correa - Larnach - Wallner……whoever is hitting just ahead of him. Nobody wants to pitch to a guy that doesn’t strike out with guys on base so they throw the guy in front of him strikes! He can play 1B ….. a little 2B …… DH. He’s Donovan Solano versatility wise, only better defensively and much better offensively. I understand that $14M is a fair amount for this Twin’s payroll……….I’d much rather have Arraez coming to the plate with RISP than Willi Castro.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Seems Castro would bring good value as a potential starting LF and as some infield depth for Padres. They have interest in Vazquez. Those 2 guys & a AA or less pitcher for Cease makes sense to me. Cease is only around for a year…..on paper. Maille or Casali could be signed in the $3-$4M range, maximum as 2nd Catcher for at least 3-4 months of ‘25. Not trading Larnach…….certainly not in a deal for a single guy that’s under Team control for only one season.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Grichuk hit .291 with a 2.2 WAR in ‘24 Hays hit .251 with a -0.1 WAR in ‘24 Not thinking Grichuk makes sense but Hays could doesn’t make sense to me. It was Grichuk’s best year, arguably. Hays obviously didn’t have a good year. Seems picking up Grichuk could be a nice fit for many Teams…..at what cost though? He may be in the $10-$14M range in today’s market. I probably stick with Martin & Kiersey behind Larnach - Buxton - Wallner to start the year. Focus $$ spending on 1B &/or Catcher. Castro, if still here, is solid OF depth as well. If they can move Vazquez and Castro to San Diego or maybe Vazquez & Matthews (or like young arm) for CEASE it should be acted on right away. Shifting Ryan to a #3-#4 starter makes the Rotation look awfully formidable!! Keep SWR & Festa as 23 & 25 year olds in ‘25!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. If San Diego is willing to trade Cease for Vazquez and another lesser player it’s a good move……Ronny Henriquez maybe? Nice shot in the arm for rotation and at least gives team, under new ownership, ability to consider extending Cease based on fit & performance in ‘25. Matthews for Mountcastle?…….. Keaschall by June/July as depth at 1B & 2B. Paddack - Topa - Stewart - Varland - Headrick as additions to the PEN as health allows. Need to trade, potentially Duran and somebody, for a Catcher! I guess they could keep the PEN strong and sign a $2-$4M FA Catcher like Maille or Casali?
  25. JD-TWINS
    Nothing wrong with a healthy Larnach at this point…….not specific to you here, but I don’t understand any dissatisfaction with him after the ‘24 season?
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