JD-TWINS

Duran (replacing Jansen) - some prospect arm below AAA - Miranda or Julien or Kirilloff, etc. to Boston for 1B Casas?…….,trade options are so vast that this is a bit silly but could be a nice deal……maybe?

I like a bunch of these points…..clearly, you’ve made up your mind on Kirilloff and I don’t blame you. In his defense, his most games played season of ‘23 he had 281 AB’s with a .348 OBP & a .270 BA with 116 OPS+ with 11 HR……to me, maybe worth considering. Team has to make a judgement on his character - that’s beyond my knowledge. April 1, 2025: 3B - Miranda ….. CC - SS …. Castro - 2B ….. Lewis 1B Lee at AAA to make sure he’s capable offensively……eventually at 3B. Maybe Julien can be a pleasant surprise but he was essentially written off on the MLB level by the end of the season…..wonder about his ability to turn it around. Am hoping Keaschall’s arm is OK by June and he can play 2B a bunch by July. Moving Vazquez, if trying to be competitive, can’t be an option with current depth from system in ‘25. Matthews-Morris-Lewis-Raya are starter depth options with the current 5 guys in the Rotation. Paddack - Sands - Varland - Alcala - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Jax - Duran - Funderburk - Headrick - Moran - Blewett is a group from which something positive could be realized. IMO, shedding Paddack’s salary is an option and trading Duran is an option………I don’t like either but could rationalize supporting one or the other. Jax as a starter doesn’t make sense to me - he’s too electric in the Pen in short stints. Maybe a young, athletic CF is a trade option and Buxton is the RH power hitting Platoon guy in LF? Also, he could be depth in CF……playing 80 games defensively and DHing 40 games? Larnach seems to deserve as much latitude as Wallner at this point…….have confidence in both over long stretches. Both seem to have better approaches as time went on in ‘24.

Thought: Castro - Duran (not signing K. Jansen) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B for Twins future…..crazy for Boston or of value? I may even add another young arm that’s behind AAA guys. Casas is 24 with power & .800 OPS in ‘24. ………….he’s a real 1B and has power to replace Santana. ………..frees up $6-7M toward another bat……..,,stated here because JAX is then our closer for future.

Not personal here - tired of hearing about the plight of Jorge Alcala! Prior to coming into a game to throw ONE INNING v. Texas Rangers on the verge of a sweep, he had a sub 2.00 ERA - he was, by everyone’s standards, being used properly in single inning stints. He was flourishing!! Then HE blew up and gave up 4 runs on 9 pitches v. Rangers……..he got the 2nd out of the inning & then gave up a fifth run on another homer. He didn’t pitch well - no other words need be said. Nobody else’s fault. He then looked mentally washed for the next 3-4 weeks and then got sent down to recover. Personally, I disagree with the author here in thinking Matthews has some spot in the rotation - potential depth guy at this point, to me. Paddack is either traded or, to me, more preferably in the Pen to make it more deep with the addition of Varland & Topa & possibly Stewart. Jax is the clear anchor of the Pen! I would prefer trading Duran prior to putting Jax in the rotation. I’d like them both in the Pen going forward. Jax not going max effort in short stints will diminish his effectiveness & risk his contributions to Team W’s! Lopez - Ryan - SWR - Ober - Festa ……backed by Morris - Lewis - Matthews - Raya at AAA is an adequate rotation group, to me.

No to FA options?? Other than Emma - maybe late in ‘25……,who in the organization has 30-35 HR potential in the OF? One guy with “potential” in the next 2 years doesn’t get me excited for April ‘25! Ohtani & Judge are physical freaks - enough said. Hitting the ball is a way bigger deal than stealing bases……,, Btw, Aaron Judge stole 3 bases in ‘23 & 10 bases in ‘24 - not exactly Rickey like!

Is it plausible that the Organization decides it’s more important, to help get them $1.5B or more for the franchise, to not have complete fan unrest and a lack of competitiveness within their Division? This is my hope once some minds with reason & common sense get in front of the Pohlads…….franchise broker types. Do they drop an extra $20M in ‘25 to go out with a flurry and some goodwill with the fan base……they could even get it back x 2 ($40M) in the sale - right? Seems $18M/yr for Tyler O’Neill makes some sense for a couple years (31 HR & 61 RBI in only 411 AB’s). Boston needs to focus on Pitching and may not push to re-sign him? He’ll be an attractive guy in the market. Hernandez had a great year for him, and he was already at $20M…..,,not realistic $$ spend, and he’s a BIG strikeout potential guy. In hindsight, Thomas from Washington - now under control in Cleveland, would have been optimal. Can Twins find a like guy to trade for?? Maybe there’s a trade to be made but those are awfully difficult to foresee/predict. There’s a big sea of players out there. Probably need to move a AAA pitcher with a Martin level guy to get a reasonable controllable OF guy. Paddack (would like him to stick for Pen depth & quality) could be a chip along with a younger arm from AAA? Could take the Detroit route and just play a bunch of young guys in our open spots and hope 2 of 4 or 5 guys work out ……. with a bunch of mediocre results in short-term? BIG move would be to trade Paddack to get rid of salary, along with Castro - after extending for ‘25 - no tender Kirilloff (sum of $15M) …………those are trade pieces for an OF bat or available $$ to sign a $15-$20M bat to play OF & DH some. There are plenty of young guys to pick for Castro’s defense - all but one of them would already be on the 13 man roster….. Lee - Keaschall - Miranda - Julien - Kiersey - Martin - Hellman …….etc. - Castro did end the year at only .717 OPS.

Chasing “speed” as the central tool isn’t the answer. If Management signed any of these 3 guys there would be absolute insurrection. Iglesias at 35? ……neither of the other two hit….at all. Not good options! Twins could really use another bat - cannot ignore (by promoting Helman - Kiersey - Martin) that losing Santana empties the offense of approximately 23HR & 75 RBI……the BAT is much more important than the speed aspect. Guys that couldn’t crack the ‘24 roster from AAA aren’t necessarily the answer going forward because of some sentimental desire that they succeed as Twins……nor because they are inexpensive. It should be a mix of solutions/options but a new FA bat with Pop needs to be part of the mix! To me, that’s the only near-term need for the Club to succeed.

I’m a proponent of Lee at 3B & Lewis at 1B. Problem is they still have no solid proof that Lee will hit enough after seeing ‘24……,& Julien doesn’t give a warm and fuzzy feeling on offense nor defense. My assumption is that unless Lee is tearing cover off the ball in Spring, he starts out at AAA. Julien is a long-shot at 2B w/o an offensive resurgence. Seems until Keaschall or someone can solve 2B issues, Castro will be the central figure there daily. Lee - Correa - Julien/Keaschall - Lewis has nice “potential” as a unit. Castro & Miranda for depth………guys gotta hit though or defensive alignment is moot.

I do think that Pitching is the potential strength they shouldn’t move off of in ‘25. Lewis - Morris - Matthews - Raya are all “potential” guys that will be getting more experience and polish in St Paul. ……Lopez - Festa - SWR - Ryan - Ober are a nice rotation to start the season, IMO. Paddack - Varland - Topa - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Sands - Duran are a potential strength for the Club in the Pen. …….there are another 5-6 guys with some MLB talent behind them…..Henriquez - Winder - Funderburk - Moran - Headrick - Blewett They have 7 for sure core guys (CC - Buck - Vazquez - Lewis - Castro - Larnach - Wallner), IMO & will fill out the 13 man every day roster with minimum $$ guys (Jeffers - Miranda - Martin - Lee & maybe Keirsey) NEED 1 free agent bat……..not a mid-level “RH corner OF” but somebody that can hit ……$15M plus type guy. Don’t see this type of offense available via trade. Santana lead team in RBI & HRs and posted at 1B whenever asked……,,there’s a void there that a Miranda type - Kirilloff type will have a hard time filling! I don’t have an individual or list but I’m sure the options will be front and center here soon.

Short term cuts that will cut into the viability of the Team’s competitiveness is not a carrot for a buyer. The Team has appreciated over 40 years and the payroll for ‘25 and the $$ to be paid out to players, whether it be $100M or $150M, has no bearing on what a buyer group would be willing to pay. Santana - Farmer - Kepler - Margot are all gone as free agents. Paddack may be dangled to evade his health risk, combined with $7.5M salary. Tough to get value back but maybe that’s not the goal. Vazquez has a contract that is impossible to trade without carrying a bunch of the $$ or adding other prospect value from the Twins …..for essentially zero return. Not happening. Buxton - Correa - Lopez are the attractive assets for a buyer wanting to take over with marketable star power. Companies buy assets and then strip the staff to make money in short-term. The Twins ownership doing a strip, months after they said they were selling, would be an obvious and desperate move that would only devalue the asset they are trying to sell

Exactly, shedding a guy like Lopez (big contributor) to “get the books to look better” is voodoo thinking. Any buyer or interested party in passing, knows what the Twins are spending on and what the results have been. The revenue streams are obvious - the assets - the perceived value of the assets may vary but moving the salary if one in the short-term isn’t changing the sale value of the club………trading Correa may reduce value or at least create that argument from a buyer’s perspective. Shedding salary isn’t going to help increase sale value of a held asset for 40 years. Not fooling anyone nor increasing interest if payroll is $115M v. $155M.

Not sure I understand Castro being MVP? Other TD (different writer apparently) had Castro as 7th in MVP listing. Anyway, Jax & Sands & Santana all have nerdy stats that actually showed up in numerous wins in ‘24. Castro definitely was a major contributor this season but his nerdy stat seems like a serious reach, IMO.

Vazquez

He finished 7th in TD’s MVP analysis. His OPS was .717……he was 3rd in WAR in ‘24 right behind the 2 superduds. I completely agree though that he should be signed with the current potential void at 2B and the tenuous anchors in CF & 3B. $6.25M is not a salary that’s excessive for a guy that can competently play 5 positions and help in a big way offensively a dozen times or more per year.

I can’t imagine that a $5M salary with bonus structure is a big help to payroll v. a probable $6.25M arbitration settlement…..certainly not enough $$ to lose flexibility & competence on the roster. I’d sign him and if somebody comes calling with a prospect of real interest - then maybe move him. I do have very little confidence in trading a middling roster guy for a prospect that may or may not develop into a middling roster guy.

To start, there is no way to trade the Vazquez contract. Him being moved would necessitate the Twins covering at least half of the $$ - no upside there. Unfortunate. I think you are right on the concern of relying on Stewart & Topa. One of them may work out……maybe portions of each over the year? Topa - Stewart - Funderburk - Moran - Winder - Headrick - Henriquez - Blewett ………these guys need to cover 2-3 spots in Pen. Jax - Sands - Varland - Paddack - Duran - Alcala are a very solid core!

I do not see the value in ridding $6.2M to lose a back-up/starter at 5 different positions. Castro isn’t some super hero and there are guys that can be rationalized as “able” to pick up his innings (spread over couple young guys) but they either lack in defense or offense by comparison. Again, he’s not fantastic by any means……..I just don’t see what he’s brining in trade value. We would get back some low level “prospect”. If he could be packaged with another 1 or 2 guys, maybe the return makes sense. Kiersey only bats LH - Martin only RH. Martin could use another 8-10Lbs of bulk/strength just to improve durability but that’s probably not in the cards. He is sub-par to Castro defensively. If Lee showed more promise at the plate moving Castro could make sense. If Keaschall is expected to be available in early months (arm) then it may make sense. If Correa’s feet problems are actually behind him it may make sense. Can Buxton play CF regularly 115 games)? Farmer will be gone and Julien is tenuous at the plate and on defense. Lewis is a coin flip for availability………..to me, Castro is inexpensive depth at 5 positions. Castro - Correa - Lewis - Buxton - Vazquez - Wallner - Larnach are the 7 guys I see as part of the roster w/o question……….that leaves 6 other spots to be filled ……….Miranda - Kirilloff - Jeffers are probable……that leaves 3 spots to be filled…….I expect 2 of these will be minimum $$ guys………who might be the one FA Bat??

The owners didn’t write the article. A fan wrote it with the intent of generating debate. The ownership is selling the Team and has no reason to sell assets that are affordable and are talented on a “League Level”, not just Twins talented. The last thing a “seller” needs to do is alienate the current customer base they and NEW owners want to grow, nor reduce the value of the asset they are selling!!

Would you trade Jarren Duran, at all, period? Seems like a pretty low % move for the Boston FO. Not personal here…..,Nick has written an article for all to discuss - that’s it. He’s not representing the Twins. No way, with 3 years of control, are Ryan or Ober getting traded. They are inexpensive, veteran arms that have been steadily improving. They both fall in the Top 40 starters in baseball. Lopez may be a guy one could look at trading at the deadline - very doubtful in ‘25, better potential in ‘26 with one plus years of control remaining for trade partner. His salary makes more sense to move if $$ are a terribly big need. With the Team being up for SALE, I don’t see any talented, high profile players getting dealt……,.moving him would not be a good look for a new regime either. Morris - Lewis - Matthews - Raya (one or two) need to really show something special at AAA for any of the core rotation guys to start being discussed as potential trade pieces.

Really think with SWR & Festa maturing and refining, there is a chance the 5 guys that would be initial rotation are solid. Duran - Jax - Topa - Stewart - Sands - Alcala - Paddack - Varland can be the headliners for the Pen that can be Top level. Moran - Headrick - Funderburk - Henriquez - Winder - Blewett. Per your comments….the core, Correa - Buxton - Wallner - Larnach - Lewis, are the guys I don’t see the FO moving off. Vazquez is a fixed asset. Castro is probable due to flexibility. Everyone else that’s on the offensive side can be expendable or replaceable. Should be interesting to see who’s around in late March.

Thanks for the background! Lemon was a player my Mom talked about in my youth as a favorite of hers………I was born in ‘62 and just always assumed he had more success in Minnesota. Good background here. ………………………. Was curious about how Killebrew had done in Washington - a contrast of some of your numbers that Lemon had put up: ’59 - 42 HR….’60 - 31 HR…’61 - 46 HR….’62 - 48 HR……’63 - 42…..’64 - 49 In ‘59 at age 23 he lead the AL & then again age 26-28 he lead 3 straight years. TWINS fans must have been completely jazzed about Harm!!! …….then a Series in ‘65

I can’t imagine that Jax wanting to be a starter having any more weight than the 2nd year salesman for XYZ company wanting to be Sales V.P. - glad you both have ambitions! Paddack - Varland - Topa - Stewart ALL being added to Sands - Alcala - Jax - Duran makes the ‘25 Pen elite. Stewart may only throw 32 innings ……. Topa may only throw 40 innings but if they are both available for October I am happy with that. Blewett a possibility to keep? Moran or Funderburk throwing to adequate levels? Winder & Headrick for depth? Ronny Henriquez will be in play! Lopez - Festa - SWR - Ober - Ryan Morris - Lewis - Matthews - Raya readying at AAA. I may be naive or dreaming but I think this staff gets it done. NEED a BAT!!!!

Not in major disagreement with this and have no serious ill thoughts about ownership in 80’s v. 2020’s. It seems though that Carl & Mrs. are getting painted in some very glowing fashion here. They did deliver the fan base from the Griffith’s - that was a big deal!!!! However, they also owned the team when MLB was going to contract the franchise and Courts stopped that action in the near-term. Players had success and it all went away - Carl & Eloise weren’t stopping the contraction movement to my recollection.

Cannot say this slant on “what may be coming” is not accurate. However, the Orioles roster is one high ranked or previously (young) high ranked prospect after another. The ownership group has been there for months at this point. Inherited low payroll with (theoretically) a bunch of young talent. A previous ownership that wasn’t going to spend. They went out & got Burnes immediately and had Kimbrel on payroll & made some deadline moves……….my point is that the $20M less payroll than Twins isn’t necessarily the mindset for the organization going forward…….will be interesting to see how they treat the Santander free agency. Bottom line is numerous posts here state that there is uncertainty with new Twins ownership, if & when there’s new ownership. Fingers crossed! My thought is that it’s hard to imagine an ownership group putting together $1.5-$1.7B for meager operating profits and a sub-par ROI and not being motivated to get a kick out of WINNING!

Not sure how one turns $44M into $1.8B in traditional market investments? I get it’s over 40 years ………. but if you DOUBLE the investment every 10 years it’s $704M. This is with ZERO profitability in operations over all 40 years combined. Is my math or thinking way off??? LMK…..btw, doubling an investment’s value every 10 years is essentially a fantasy.