JD-TWINS

First, Alcala threw 9 pitches and the game was tied………once it was tied he got the 2nd out……seemed to have settled himself. Not burning a stopper at 4-4 in mid August. Alcala sucked and it’s in him - 100%. Second, rules are a pitcher starting an inning has to face 3 batters. There is no 2 pitch appearance that’s feasible nor logical. Three, the guy was put into the game to do his job. His ERA at that point was under 2.00. Why, with a 4 run lead would a Manager freak out and get somebody up after 2 pitches when Alcala has been nearly bullet proof for 60 days? Everything is SO CLEAR in hindsight……,getting Alcala out of that game in a heartbeat made no sense in real time.

It’s not & the Twin’s season turned south with their inability to hit and score runs! Strategy and line-up choices didn’t lose games it was guys not performing in the batter’s box over vast majority of 6 weeks.

Carlos Correa just needs a little veteran company to lead the youngsters ……..maybe an arm? I see their needs as 100% on offense but that’s just me. Adding “successful” veterans is the point.

WHY is the sentiment that the Padres have done something magical with their salary spend in ‘24? With Maeda and Baez the Tigers payroll in April was $98M ……. very modest!! The Padres payroll after the trade deadline is $169M. I get the enthusiastic S.D. crowd and players reactions after winning makes everything seem cool! The reality is that the Tigers and Padres payroll couldn’t be more different…….$73M different. I don’t get the comparison or supposed symmetry? $90 million reduction in payroll from some drunken sailor spending at $260M isn’t some great feat by Preller. I like their Team and they have spent at a level that would almost certainly take the Twins into a great spot in the AL. Sure, Tigers caught lightning in a bottle but 8-10 games under .500 in August is a tenuous spot to be in and it’s doubtful a Team will find themselves in the playoffs from that spot.

Not really sure what this article nor your comments are supposed to compare? Both Team’s had to cut payroll in ‘24 is the baseline I guess? How is there any real comparison that makes sense if the Padres cut to get to $162M ($169 after All-Star break adds) and the Twins cut to get to $124M? There’s a payroll discrepancy of $45M……and Preller is made out to be a genius v. Falvey……what am I missing. The Padres are 14th in MLB in spending and the Twins are about 20th or higher in MLB & the Padres are doing better with their roster……surprise?? Do we really think that with $45M more to spend in ‘24 the Twins wouldn’t be in the Playoffs? Last year Falvey got nothing but static about signing Solano & then he had a really good year and nobody said a thing, other than, don’t re-sign him……let youth have a chance! Acting like not re-signing Solano was a mistake compounded by signing Santana is nuts. Santana hit .238 but he played Gold Glove first base and he lead the Team in HR & RBI…….hardly a mistake!! Wallner had consistent playing time in April and hit .085 - had to be sent down. Julien had consistent playing time and was terrible and sent down in June/July. Kirilloff had a 117 OPS+in ‘23 and with his playing time in ‘24 he managed to hit around .208. Lee, when he was healthy enough to play, got chances at 3 different positions so he could be in the line-up regularly and he had under .600 OPS. Who signed Farmer in ‘23? Who signed Solano in ‘23? Who signed Castro in ‘23? …….he can’t make a good deal to save his life……

TWINS beat Toronto last year in the Wildcard round - right?

$98M for their full ‘24 roster (Baez & Maeda make up $39M) ………Skubal - Keith and another guy bring the total to $46M for 5 guys……everyone else makes essentially, $740K. It’s a huge leap of faith leaning into ALL young guys.

Festa has 3 pitches (needs a better change of speed pitch) - he’s got 96Mph velocity - good slider - in his debut season he was a #5 - #4 guy. With Lopez/Ryan/Ober, he’s not passing them most likely, in ‘25. He’s definitely got an opportunity to be a Top of rotation pitcher going forward though. Raya, drafted at 17, does have smaller stature. Would assume, he was probably still growing and filling out through ‘22-‘23. 5 inning start in St Paul recently at age 22. He’s going to be OK with this progression. Woods was #6 - then #5 - then all the way up to #3 down the stretch. He’s 23. His velocity is better than Ober’s, with less extension and a more traditional release point, but it was his first season in MLB. For instance, Ober was on innings limit first couple forays in the Show. I don’t think SWR’s stuff has him vaulting forward in the rotation but with experience and gained stamina, he can be a solid guy extending his successful start in ‘24.

Festa potentially to the bullpen? Waaay premature for that thinking. I agree with the World that he needs a change of speed pitch - occasional curve ball. SWR is the #4 starter in ‘25 unless he’s hurt. Festa is #5 unless he’s hurt. If they are flipped - no big deal - they are in the rotation. Would like to see Raya in long relief by September at Target to get a little experience and, obviously, help the Club. Looking at ‘26 for a possible competitive look at the Rotation. Matthews needs to develop his “in zone command” with his fastball. Gain experience with his off speed. Slider is encouraging! Would like more info on Morris’ stuff. His MiLB numbers look great but don’t know what he throws nor velocity………..he appears to have promise.

I don’t doubt that this may be a positive move. In late April he had to go……..by the All-Star break he had righted the ship & guys were striking out much less with the bat to ball approach…way better approach…….the last 6 weeks were a consistent failure. (in the middle of bat to ball they hit a Hime Run in a bunch of consecutive games) I struggle with coaching being the driver for a batter’s success…….players play. Hitters have been prone to multiple week slumps at various times through the summers for as long as there have been baseball seasons. Coaches try to create a positive mindset - a process to use as a crutch - history and strengths and weaknesses, the tendencies of opposing pitchers. Bat speed and bat to ball skills & confidence are all on the hitters. I don’t think he waved a wand after game 20 in April to get things going and I don’t think that the approach with nearly every guy in the line-up changed for the worse in mid August. Guys get dinged up - guys go 0-10 over 3 days and lose their edge - guys get mentally & physically fatigued in the dog days of August/September. I struggle with “things were great & then the coaching got bad” type of thinking. Hope new guy helps bring some success!

They went from 10 games over .500 to 17 games over .500 without Correa….. Santana on both D & O is tough to argue - the guy Posts as well!! Buxton was effective for 3 plus months after a couple lulls. Correa was definitely their most polished hitter and his D was consistently good, when he played. Jax, maybe not the MVP but he played the best……. appearance after appearance. Great mindset - great stuff!! Aggressive and competitive on the mound in every situation. Fun to watch………reminds me that at one point this year I referred to him as a guy with “wiffle ball stuff”. He’s electric!

Agree - apparently, what was anticipated/expected and how they performed against that expectation, that is the scale. Starters, on a level curve: Ober B+ …. Lopez B- ….. Ryan B ……. Festa C ……… SWR C+ …….. Matthews C- ……..Paddack C ……. Varland D- Pen is too big…….Duran C+ (1.16 WHIP - 3.64 ERA - 9 LOSSES) ……Jax A ……Sands A- ……..Alcala B- ……..rest of guys were all over the place and a bunch of it was poor. In ‘25 Lopez needs to tighten things up some - B+ would be fine! Ober and Ryan keep doing what they did, with a bit more run support & all is good. SWR just needs to continue to refine - he’s 23!! Festa has stuff - needs more durability and maybe some off speed variant pitch. Maybe a curve every 10-12 pitches. His change-up is 90 - his slider is similar speed - fastball ……..needs a “once in a while” off speed pitch. New grip change-up? Paddack - Varland - Sands could be a 3 headed middle relief bridge to Jax & Duran……..I like the two former starters in the Pen….. it could be the Team’s strength - they need one!!

Santana is maybe a 30% chance of coming back. …….. ”…….one of the least clutch hitters the last couple weeks”…..Santana & about 6 or 7 other guys! Lead the Team in HR & RBI - Gold Glove at 1B……big hole potentially…….$5M and he starts at 1B v lefties, starts maybe 30-40 other games at 1B and pinch hits……batting 8th in line-up. Good depth guy - insurance! Correct, he cannot run well but that seems to be the Team mantra - Jose Miranda is 13 years younger and doesn’t have more than a half step on Castro.

I love Kyle Farmer and he deserves nothing more than a D ………..Brooks Lee deserves a D-…,….Martin, relative to expectations, deserves a C in my opinion. Vazquez had a hot 5 week stretch, probably a C-. Miranda doesn’t seem to have the physical strength/fitness to play a whole season at a reasonable level. I really don’t care if he hits 5 HR for the year but the line drive doubles gap to gap need to happen regularly for him to be on the Team as he has no defensive strength - he’s maybe OK. C for Jose IMO. Jeffers is C- at best ……he had 10 of his 21 HR before the end of May. He had a nice 2 strike approach and then he seemed to lose that ability to choke up and make contact. As strong as he is, he should choke up ALL the time - his higher barrel rate would allow him to continue to hit HR’s and Doubles and make more positive contact to RF. Julien, D-! That’s a D ….. D- …… D- for the core 2B on our roster according to me. It’s rough any way you look at it…..

Dobnack is shown not because anyone thinks he’ll be on opening day roster nor “any day roster” hopefully, his salary of $3M is committed as part of the ‘25 budget spend. I think Raya may be available as long relief by August. He had at least one good 5 inning start late in St. Paul. Keeping Paddack for Pen and lining him up as 6th-8th inning guy with Sands & Varland sounds really good to me. This lets Stewart & Topa be spot guys 5th-7th innings. Jax & Duran cleaning up late! ………Henriquez - Funderburk - Winder - Headrick - Blewett all in the mix for the 8th spot. Maybe Canterino & Prielipp will surprise us all and be able to pitch in ‘25? Festa - Lopez - Ryan - Ober - SWR works for me ….. Zebulon gets some time to refine for a few months. I think any spending has to be on BATS!!!

Whole bunch of differing or alternative thoughts. Will wait for the Complete Plan coming later. First thought though is the budget will not pass $140M and I think that’s very rich based on comments to date from ownership. You or DF may be selling but I don’t see Pohlad’s buying. Your $165M needs to be tempered, IMO, before any real potential plan is out together.

I noticed Jax $$ value that’s assumed as well ……….can’t imagine how he’s not worth at least as much, if not more than Duran? I’ve seen a couple places now that Duran will get $3M. Doesn’t add up to me………..on another note, Jax stuff doesn’t play over multiple innings because his success now is ALL OUT for 3-5, outs, maximum…..,hope he doesn’t have angst staying a reliever!

Actually, there are 26 spots. I get your point but Castro can play one spot at a time, so, 2 of the 3 guys I suggested can displace him, his versatility, are going to be on the roster anyway.

Sure, Buxton & Correa are key pieces! However, they played pretty well over the last couple weeks they were back and still very few runs & very few wins. Wallner went down late - didn’t help. The issue is the rest of the gang……Miranda - Jeffers - Lee - Julien - Lewis - Castro, they all produced very little over either a few months or at a minimum, the last few weeks. One night Team had 7 hits from top 3 guys in line-up (Buxton - Larnach - Correa) and ZERO from the remaining 6 guys……Lewis got a PH. That lack of contribution from “the cast” is what is of concern to me, not Buxton & Correa’s salary nor their performance.

Santana had 2.5 WAR …….109 OPS+ ……..lead Team in HR & RBI. Big hole with him gone & nearly all year every one of us thought it would be best if he were not around in ‘25. Risk at age 39……..other player reports suggested he’s a health and physical fitness enthusiast……maybe worthwhile. Somebody will pay him $5-$7M.

Haven’t given next year’s roster a bunch of thought - will try to enjoy playoff baseball for a month………..in reality, $$ Twins will spend is complete guess work at this point. Again, maybe more emotional than rational? To me, Paddack is a decent value for many MLB Clubs…….probably not for the Twins. I can’t see how Festa isn’t one of the Top 5 starters going into ‘25. I would love to have Paddack as part of the Twin’s Pen in ‘25…..he and Varland combined make Stewart a real luxury! Paddack to the Pen v. signing a “real experienced reliever” seems to be better than a push for the Twins. We’ll see - $7.5M Castro can play a bunch of positions and is competent at nearly all 5 of them. Most AB’s on the Team and offensive production that is/was OK (.247 BA - same as career average …..with 12 HR….102 OPS+) at best in the end. A combination of Lee - Kiersey - Martin cover essentially everything Castro provides. But not Lee has less speed. Not pushing Willi out the door but - $5.5M. Jeffers, (haven’t looked at associated Catcher Defense thread) to me, just isn’t cutting it 70% of his games behind the plate. His offense completely tanked after May. A “probable All-star” at beginning of June & ended up hitting 2.5 HR/month the last 4 months. 103 OPS+ at season’s end. With 2.1 WAR, he’s affordable at his salary but another guy that brings better defense for $2M may make more sense - doubtful, but worth considering. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear Twins have any reasonable depth in the system - Camargo looked brutal at the plate in his handful of opportunities this year. I assume there would be interest but is Jeffers worth moving - $4.5M. This is $17.5M……if payroll is increased a modest 5% ($6M) ………potentially could have $23.5M to spend, less Kiersey & Festa at $.8M each. Need a catcher in this scenario…..,maybe Jeffers is the guy at $4.5M? Somebody of $$ value has to replace Julien in the DH slot above. Santana in ‘25, batting 8 or 9 along with his defense, is a serious option. He did lead Team in HR & RBI. Gotta ease somebody else into 40-70 starts at 1B as the future……..not sure that Miranda’s body holds up playing 1B everyday. Maybe 40 starts there and 40 starts at 3B for Jose?

I came here to echo what you said - 3 runs or less, through 9 innings, in 11 of last 16 games played. What’s the expectation for winning ballgames scoring 3, 2, or 1 runs? Offense, lack of, was the problem!!! Weak performances by staff and overuse of bullpen show up when Team is under stress due to no offense. Miranda hurt in the end & ineffective mostly since late July. Castro faded back to just OK after a ton of use. Jeffers disappeared after May (10 HR over last 4 months). Wallner not up to speed until nearly August. Julien completely crumbled after April. Lewis was bad after July. Lee was terrible at the plate after about his first 10 days…………….to blame the FO for not signing different complimentary, depth players and saying that’s what sunk the season…don’t agree with that sentiment…...the core for the future didn’t perform as a group over a third of the season or more. Scary for the future - the pitching staff going forward looks bullet proof compared to the offense! Larnach - Wallner - Buxton - Correa - Lewis are what Team is leaning into for ‘25. 2 up & down guys that are showing real promise after ‘24……………3 other guys that can be big stars but are all injury prone. That’s it………FO has a lot more line-up work to do for ‘25 than I thought!!

……Or, instead of pointing at front office & owners for more $$ (always nice - but necessary?) or the Manager for not understanding baseball after 20 plus years affiliated in MLB, the guys who said they were to blame - the players - showed some character and played to their abilities as grown men & professionals!! Guys that are 24-38 years old should know how to execute their profession….,,,run bases …….bunt……..put the ball in play to drive a guy in from 3B. The fans here act like Baldelli is managing a bunch of ignorant, mind wandering 16 year olds. Jeffers doesn’t know how to execute a bunt to the proper side of the field?………..Santana isn’t aware enough to watch the bunt & when it’s popped up, haul ass back to 2B ?……these are not things MLB Managers should need to worry about Teaching grown players getting paid $750k - $35M!!!!……….the players said it was “their fault” and they are right? Detroit - K.C. - Cleveland all managed to get past us in ‘24 and I don’t think any of the 3 outspent the TWINS. Their players sure seemed to have more enthusiasm and energy than the Twins……..I guess that’s the Manager’s fault though?

Just to be clear, there are many more Packer fans in Milwaukee and suburbs than there are in Green Bay. The Packers operate (due to chance, of the Team history) in what would be Winona relative to the Twin Cities. The competition in a metro area is still there, 100%. I used to attend Vikings games in Milwaukee…….. Anyway, Cards are heaped in History, as you point out and Winning! The Brewers Win regularly and are a great underdog success story year after year. Being successful on the field - court - rink will always bring fans!! Once people start to come for a winning product, optimism gets into fan’s blood and they come back under all kinds of circumstances. Twins reverting to ‘21 payroll, having major local TV issues, and starting 6-13 all contributed to this year’s issues with fandom.

St Louis secret sauce is two fold, IMO. (I worked there 5 years from 2011-2016) Tradition & location. The Cards have won the 2nd most Series titles behind Yankees. Kids grow up going to the Park and it gets in your blood as part of a fun/winning experience! To be succinct, there’s nothing else to support in St. Louis and surrounding area……it’s a big draw for people from Western Tennessee - Western Kentucky - Arkansas - and a bunch of Missouri - Illinois - Iowa………….the radio history getting to people for 100 years (mostly 100 - 40 years ago) got “families” attached to their Cards and the fandom perpetuates through to today’s generations. Many of the Twins fans at TD are obviously 60+ and attach to their team similarly ………..the Twins lack of real success, other than just making the playoffs, over the past 30+ years has caught up to Today’s potential fan base. The historical connection is waning and it reflects in attitudes about the Team from many aspects & points of view. Winning cures all ills: 2006 & 2011 Series Titles in St. Louis and ELEVEN overall. 100 wins in 2015 & over 90 wins three other times since ‘15. That’s probably the obvious “secret sauce” in St Louis.