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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Past 40 years the mid-market/small-market teams in the AL Central have won 5 World Series Championships. 12.5% of them………6 divisions now, 16.6% would be totally balanced outcome. We are poor as a Division now because Reinsdorf is ancient, lost touch - KC doesn’t seem to care about record - Detroit is nearly a continual rebuild - Cleveland (sniffed a Series Win for years) seems too frugal now to win a Championship. The Guardians will remain competitive but maybe not strong enough? Twins seem to be headed in right direction both with young talent on the scene now - more young talent over the next 2-3 years - proper spending. Willingness to spend & be patient both - needed traits in the FO. I don’t see doom & gloom in the AL Central going forward.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think Terry Francona would work for an owner that doesn’t care. He has a budget - no doubt. They are a proud group. They had Bell - at some market price. He gave them blah results - sparked the Marlins a bit. They could pick up the CF from Colorado via Angels - Grichuk(?) & Renfroe via Reds……….both affordable options and with Kwan, a solid offensive outfield. Naylor’s can both hit. Rameriz is fantastic - under rated All-Star. A guy like Brantley (Houston this year) as an inexpensive DH? I assume they have somebody that’s not a pitcher that’s a decent prospect in their system. I am not saying they are a guy away from the ‘27 Yankees but I am saying they aren’t that far from being a playoff potential team. Pitching wins and they have young arms. The fact that Francona seems 90% of the way out the door hurts them the most next year. Not terribly fearful of the Guardians but they have a chance to be decent in ‘24. Will they spend $30-$40M? Their current payroll can’t be much more than $60M.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Like the previous comments, I too dislike the typical negativity about the team - individuals - the FO. Great to hear up beat point of view. While I agree with most of what you say about the Twins competition in the Central, the Guardians are certainly not that distant from the Twins going forward. Their Pen is easily on par or better than the Twins as of today…….I do like our upside with a little bit of improved health……….. Their rotation, once Bieber & McKenzie return is on par with ours as well! So, if pitching is relatively level, it doesn’t take big adds to the Naylor Bros. - Rameriz - Kwan to be competitive. They let Civale go & they traded Josh Bell …….nothing stopping them from getting an offensive OF in free agency and they’d have 5-6 good major league weapons in their line-up. I do agree, Lewis - Kirilloff - Lee, along with Julien & Wallner seem special to us/me, but I know nothing about their farm guys. If they touted system depth backed by Larnach & particularly Miranda, I would chuckle at their optimism! Fandom goes only so far before reality has to take hold. I like our chances in first 2 rounds this year - no guarantees but a real chance! Going forward, if we can have reasonable health, we look strong and the organization seems to spend enough to help supplement the farm system………very encouraging stuff for next 5 plus years!!
  4. JD-TWINS
    To me, Stewart should be left alone this year - awfully late in year to be returning w/o a handful of appearances to get sharp. Alcala, Paddack, Stewart all fall in same category to me………..let’s look again when healthy in February!
  5. JD-TWINS
    We can shuffle the roster/staff for each series. Only need 3 starters but we’ll roster 4 for the Wildcard Round. With 4 starters & travel days there’s no short rest for anyone starting. I like our existing 4 Pen guys (Pagan-Jax-Thielbar-Duran) plus 3 added relievers. I was into Ryan’s velocity being in the Pen along with Varland & Funderburk. If Ryan keeps throwing the way he has his past couple outings, he needs to be our 3rd starter. Due to his effectiveness over 3 months and the rest he’s getting now, my assumption is Ober will be our 4th starter, as needed. Maeda, most likely to the Pen. Kuechel has a long shot chance at a Pen spot but I think they’ll maximize the number of bats/position players and just carry 11-12 pitchers total.
  6. JD-TWINS
    If he does, somebody got hurt, or it’s a 2-3 inning “opener” ploy. I think it would be interesting to see Kuechel/Varland/Funderburk - /closer in September just to get a feel for its effectiveness. May be some merit to this!!??? 2-3 innings - 3-4 innings - 2 innings
  7. JD-TWINS
    Vazquez is a veteran, a career .270 BA guy, a winner, good chemistry guy & his high energy all matter. Solid defense - not supreme but solid. On the statistics side, Camargo’s .247 BA in St. Paul doesn’t translate to any better than Vazquez’ .226 BA in the Show. He’s overpaid at his current level of offense, no doubt, but he would be considered an excellent back-up/2nd catcher in the game. Other than Texas, I don’t know of any other team with two good offensive catchers? Can’t release a solid guy & pay him $10M a year at a position where depth is king. Knock on wood, we’re lucky neither catcher has been out more than a couple days this season! Gallo had a terrible history & we took a shot - a failure in the big picture - couple cool highlights, that’s it. Vazquez had a solid history and we were a bit desperate for depth so we grabbed a guy at the end of his productive years. Farmer - Vazquez - Solano - Taylor………all part of a plan to have experienced depth when needed. Been working - not perfect but effective.
  8. JD-TWINS
    One can tell they really like his 1B defense since last night they could have pinch it Vazquez v. LH pitcher with RISP & then had him play 1B. Instead they left Gallo in the game and gave up the automatic out with Gallo at the plate. Once Kirilloff is back & Castro is back, the expanded roster starts to clog & Joey may be gone quickly…….Luplow v. Gallo??
  9. JD-TWINS
    Solano is batting .294 (or close) after going 4 for 5 last night, his only out was a line drive 390ft to the track in center. Kepler pinch hit - came through against lefty - fled to track in left for an out - then got another hit. Polanco is hitting from both sides of the plate. These guys, with Lewis & Kirilloff, need to be the meat of our line-up! I would certainly move CC. The double plays & lack of any thought to give himself up to move runners isn’t tolerable. Everyday v. RH pitching I would bat 1-6, JulienDH-Polanco-Kepler-Kirilloff-Lewis-Walner, with CC-Jeffers-Taylor……… V. LH pitching I would bat CC-Lewis-SolanoDH-Jeffers-Kirilloff-Farmer-Luplow-Walner-Taylor Castro-Vazquez……maybe Buxton for our 14-15 guys/bats in October. 11-12 pitchers depending upon which series. Seems any move from the 3 or 4 spot reduces pressure on Correa.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Sure would expect a minimum of 5-4 through those 9. Can we go 10-8 in the other remaining games? That would get us to 85 wins……sure hope that’s our minimum. Good news is, with our stater depth on the staff, even if we dial a couple guys back, we’ll still have quality on the mound each day in the last few series.
  11. JD-TWINS
    8 guys, maybe only 7 guys in the Pen in October. Can shuffle roster after each series. 11 or 12 man staff: Extra hitters!! Could non-roster Ober in first 3 game series for an extra bat? Rotation: Lopez, Gray, Maeda, & Ober Baseline Pen: Thielbar, Pagan. Jax, & Duran Options: Ryan, Varland, Kuechel, Funderburk Maybe’s: Stewart Varland & Ryan are hard throwing - 2 inning guys that can get us the 6th & 7th alternately in playoff games or the 7th & 8th. Baseline 4 above typically handle 8th & 9th! If Ryan keeps throwing well, deeper into September, it’s difficult not to exchange him with Ober in rotation.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Music to my ears, Varland out of the bullpen! Varland average velocity 97MPH plus. Kirilloff 3 hits - back to Twins soon!! I think with the offensive issues v. LH pitching the team has had, it will be tough to release Luplow this month. With Castro back & Kirilloff back I can’t see any justification to keep Gallo on the roster. They can move Stevenson back & a pitcher to open roster spots for those 2 guys in the short term………..Buxton has to displace Gallo later this month. Hopefully, Varland will displace Floro some time soon!
  13. JD-TWINS
    -9:00 p.m. - good call - Guardians grabbed all 3 pitcher - blocked us from grabbing Moore
  14. JD-TWINS
    It’s a tie game in extra’s and you are in scoring position - no earthly reason to be aggressive on a pop foul ball on the infield! I understand he didn’t plan on falling down but after the catch we got 2 more shots at driving him in for the win - then no chance - come on Joey.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Kepler’s .250BA - 21 HR - .802 OPS & solid D makes him one of the top 3-4 Right Fielders in the AL ……..Top 6-7 in the game!! Verdugo - Garcia are similar offensively with BA & OPS & just a few ticks ahead of Kepler. Don't see other guys play much but Max’s defense is still top shelf!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Farmer - Solano - Kepler are just getting hits & more hits. For Kepler to be up to .250BA & over .800 OPS is unbelievable, frankly. He may be the best all around right fielder in the AL right now? He’s batting 3rd and getting one or two hits a day. Kuechel has given up 7 earned runs in 4 appearances to date (6 in one inning) over 18 innings. ERA of 3.50……outstanding pick up. Got Ryan healed and only one rocky game. Like the piggyback concept. Maybe do it with Kuechel & Winder to give Ober a skipped start? He needs a break! Ober can be optioned - could bring Varland up and get 2 skipped starts for Ober? If we had Old School management, Joey Gallo would have been DFA’d at about 6:00 p.m CST today……….what kind of base running was that??? Castro will be back Friday (3 games to get through) with roster expansion and should be in the OF daily to hide Luplow/Gallo & Taylor til his leg is right. Best news of all is Kirilloff is nearing a re-hab stint in the next 7-10 days……really need that guy! Solano is playing almost flawlessly in Kirilloff’s absence though! Batting order with associated OPS: Julien.. .857 - Polanco.. .750 - Kepler.. .801 - CC.. .715 - Kirilloff.. .799 - Wallner.. .878 - Lewis.. .885 - Jeffers.. .884 - Castro.. .692 v. RH starting pitching………coming soon!! 6 lefties that can hit + Lewis & CC & Jeffers Expanded rostered guys: Taylor/Solano/Farmer/Vazquez …..probably Luplow & Gallo……Buxton displaces one of the last 2 guys at some point mid-September. 18-13 from here on out to get to 86 wins - nice goal for the Division title!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Taylor, theoretically, is a guy to specialize v. LH pitching…….has been forced into everyday role and gas probably started v. 80 RH this year. Mediocre results. % go to Gallo v. Scherzer ….but I think the biggest reason Luplow & Gallo played was due to Taylor’s “tight hamstring” mentioned only briefly on the telecast. Seems his leg’s not right……….Might see an exchange on IL with him & Castro in next day or two. Maybe your guy Martin by the end of the week?
  18. JD-TWINS
    Liked the last comment on Varland…..we don’t NEED to give him a chance, he needs to prove he deserves a chance. Being a good guy - being from MN doesn’t matter. Nobody handed Ober a spot - that’s for sure. Maeda is worth a 2 year deal for $25M -$28M if he finishes well in ‘23. I like the “mutual option” for ‘25. He’s been making a base of $3.1M for 8 years……along with incentives that could earn him another $2.5 - $5M if he was healthy, based on innings and # of starts. He needs to be paid. He seems to like our team - we’ve treated him well & even though he’s 35, he has a rebuilt arm and he gets guys out. Basically, we would extend him for less than what we would be paying Mahle. Mahle - Gray gone, that’s $25-27M saved…….if Maeda is making $5.5M this year it would be a decent raise at his age to $12.5M Take some of the other $ left and try to add some depth to the Pen - just one guy with a track record……doesn’t have to be a star…….. just a 65 inning/yr guy with ERA under 3.80. Use some of other balance of $ to tie up Jax & Duran.
  19. JD-TWINS
    It’s got 2-3 too many guys…..hoping for 7 man Pen in Playoffs……certainly a max of 8. Once Cleveland “SOLD” Civale & Josh Bell the FO recognized the Division was pretty tough to lose. No need for knee jerk trades for a reliever that may or may not be effective. We’ll need 4 guys in the rotation in October: Lopez-Gray-Maeda-Ober 7 guys for relief with the off days: Ryan-Varland-Jax-Pagan…..Thielbar-Kuechel… Duran Funderburk or Stewart are still possible contributors in the Pen. We’ll piece it together for 33 more games & then it’s on. Assuming Varland will be moved into position for 2-3 appearances by September 20…..possible we could experiment with Kuechel in that same time range, late next month. Need a tweak or two in the Pen during the off-season.
  20. JD-TWINS
    4 guys in rotation for playoffs ……probably 7 guys in the Pen. 15 bats. Lopez-Gray-Maeda have been our top 3 pitchers for 2 months! Ober is a starter due to consistency & mental make-up. Agreed on Varland & Kuechel. October Pen: Ryan - Varland - Kuechel (3 solid long guys) - Jax - Thielbar - Pagan - Duran If Kirilloff or Buxton aren’t ready to go by September 1 roster expansion, I see Martín being a good idea. DFAing Donovan Solano or having Martin plug in at 1st base is nuts though……don’t see any logic in either of these moves. We won’t let Julien play first base, for good reason - why would they have a kid come up and play somewhere he isn’t familiar with in the middle of a Divisional race??? Solano plays first base and is clutch & is batting .285 over 110 games - 308 AB’s with a .770 OPS……he’s our 3rd or 4th best hitter. He’s getting it done! Roster expands in 6 days - Solano & Gallo are at 1B through September until Kirilloff is back! Luplow got claimed & rostered ahead of farm guys coming up because he’s got a floor they can live with - he’s got nerve - been in the Show - fits in & they can cut anytime due to no future with club. Tough to have a kid come up and get 11 AB’s & get sent back down due to lack of performance or some mistake. We need to focus on October’s roster……Luplow is the 15th bat or DFA’d by then. Gallo will be dressed and non-rostered by Oct 2. If guys don’t heal we’ll see a couple young guys by next Friday. Hoping Kirilloff spoils somebody’s chance because we need him!! Completely open to Funderburk and we can figure out the 40 man roadblock. No need to worry about Nick Gordon the remainder of this year. Castro will be back, worst case, by next Friday. 19 runs in 2 games……no guarantees but I think we’re fine.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Correct. Professionalism - experience - nerve are the reasons Luplow was picked off the waiver wire over our Farmhands. Seems obvious. We have a half dozen guys that could be argued have a better upside than Luplow this year & almost certainly in the future. He fits in - he’s been in the Show…….his floor is higher and his mindset & ability to fit in are proven.
  22. JD-TWINS
    An aside from topic: Kepler - .244BA - .792OPS Solano - .282BA - .770OPS Jeffers - .288BA - .884OPS Wallner - .244BA - .878OPS Julien - .285 - .857OPS Lewis - .328 - .885OPS When Polanco - Correa - Taylor - etc. are your weak links, your line-up is in good shape! Never gonna be perfect, but if we could get Kirilloff (.270BA - .799OPS) back we stack up with anyone in baseball! Get the pitchers some rest by utilizing Kuechel & Varland over last 33 starts & am optimistic about hosting first round.
  23. JD-TWINS
    It would be great to skip a start or two for Ober! No 6 man rotation/piggyback. Maeda is strong with the rebuilt arm & rest he got early this year & pitching well. Skip a start in late September. Gray & Lopez could use 1 skip each at some point mid-month. Sooner the better. 4 starters in Playoffs is plenty with the travel days in 7 games series………..5 starters may be an advantage just because teams don’t see the same guy twice in a week. I think we go with Lopez, Gray, Maeda, & Ober in rotation & with Ryan, Kuechel, Varland, Pagan, Thielbar, Jax, & Duran. ……4 starters & 7 relievers gives us 15 bats in October.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Appreciate the details. Does it not make sense to do a similar style deal with Ryan/Ober (if confident in their health) at a smaller number or whatever seems market appropriate for an early deal? I get Lopez was deeper in his career so therefore the smaller number for a firm deal with these less experienced guys. All 3 are 27, I think? I guess your point is Lopez was free after ‘24 and these guys are not until after ‘27 or so.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Royce Lewis is a weapon isn’t he!! Really hoping for some good news on Kirilloff to really lengthen the line-up soon. Any news on his health? Veteran pick-ups by FO paying off again……Farmer - Solano - Taylor all hit the ball & played solid Defense. How about Solano at 2B, after all night at first, in the 9th and initiating the double play flawlessly? Nice! CC - RBI big double after Wallner’s laser off the wall. Sweet base running by Wallner to score. Looked like a complete club last night even with Pablo struggling through 5.
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