Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

JD-TWINS

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,212

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS

    Seattle wants Polanco

    JD-TWINS commented on Brandon's blog entry in Blog Brandon

    I don’t like making a foe stronger - there are other FA pitchers out there w/o giving Seattle guys to plug their holes. If we’re a virtual lock to win our Division we need to consider who we may need to get through to advance. I’d pursue other options but if we can move Polanco’s salary, along with depth for Seattle, in Gordon, plus a prospect like Rodriguez, all for a young starter, we need to consider. I’d trade for a solid reliever (Devin Williams) & sign a FA pitcher…….move Varland to depth 5th starter position. Then trade Polanco for prospects or as part of a package to get Williams.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I get it and the assumption from management and/or fans would be that he needs a lot more than 100 plus AB’s to sort out pitching at the MLB level. The thought was contrasting him to Julien, who most often would sit v. LH pitching. Now, he too may benefit by seeing more reps v. lefties. Currently though, if he’s sitting against LH & plays somewhat limited defense, long-term, Lee looks advantageous to many.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Agreed on the “peak value” assumption being awfully misguided. Nothing but praise from guys doing the games in playoffs - there’s something tangible there! His relative awkwardness on defense v. a guy playing solid shortstop, solid defender - switch hitter (no platoon), is a big part of the critique I think. You are right - he had a very good 1/2 season in the Show! I have a hard time seeing where he plays for Twins very far forward with us being stuck with Buxton at DH - realistically, he’s there for 5 years. The miraculous CF comeback is pretty slim IMO. He has never been healthy - DHing after surgery may change that, to Julien’s detriment.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati & when they were moving Mahle & Castillo I was preaching to focus on Castillo at whatever cost…….he’s electric! Mahle was/is mentally soft, continually pitching away from contact, too many pitches & getting in trouble - then a HR. Fortunately, we can sign a 6’5” durable guy with a great track record for the same $$ - Jordan Montgomery for 5 years & $115. Not as exciting to watch as Castillo but he gets guys out & he’s durable. ($20M x 2 & $25M x 3)
  5. JD-TWINS
    With arbitration done I’ve seen we are at $120-$122M total salary. We need to move Polanco and that gets us to $111M. It seems to me I’ve seen a ceiling on payroll of $140M…. repeatedly, for what it’s worth. $29M is a decent top end number to spend. I’d focus strictly on pitching as getting marginal hitters “that have had decent years in the past, prior to last year” is a big risk & of not much value with 2-3 young guy’s potentially ready at some point this summer. FA - J. Montgomery for 5 years at escalating salary. $21M x 2 yrs & $26M x 3 yrs. IMO, we could move Varland to the Pen & stop there at $132M this year. This would be great! In addition in trade, we could really get good & make a serious run by adding Devin Williams for $6.2M…….package Miranda - Gordon (or Polanco if they like) - Festa & maybe Rodriguez? The trade package isn’t terribly important as we need to give up something to get a true top line reliever! $138-$139M total.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I keep hammering 2 years of control for Devin Williams……..much more value in a trade with the 2nd year & more affordable once he’s on our payroll…….he brings enough to the Staff to enable Varland to start & still maintain an excellent Pen………..$6.2M We move Polanco’s salary to Brewers & let them trade him for prospects as they rebuild if they like ………..package him with 2-3 other guys …….Gordon as an inexpensive flexible guy that can play a bunch of 2B if needed with some upside …….Miranda, if they like - they’re looking for a 1B/DH………..Festa & another prospect as needed. Eliminating Polanco’s salary allows for some spending. $112M + Williams is $118M…….. Maeda or Severino or Seth Lugo all in the $11-12.5M range. Or, we could max out in the $143-$144M range & sign Montgomery for $24-$26M with an escalating salary from $20M to $22M to $26M x 3 years. Maeda or Severino would be acceptable. D. Williams would be great! Montgomery would be fantastic!!…Varland to Pen How about Williams & Montgomery….can’t imagine. It’s realistic…..we keep Kepler & Farmer and still only spend $138-$142M this year and next year we clear Kepler & Farmer with youth & can afford Lopez bump of $16M in ‘25. Salary is “expected” to increase 5-10% per year per many experts here. This is an 8% reduction in payroll and we can essentially maintain it going forward in ‘25! We’re getting a TV deal somewhere this year - the Major League, Division Champs will be televised - there will be some reasonable level of $$$ to the franchise for TV/stream.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see Mariners moving Gilbert - particularly to a team in same League at a similar level of post-season capabilities. Manoa seems like a head case with a lot of risk …..”didn’t report after being sent down” NOT cool! His ERA had nearly tripled, had to go down to work on some things. Keller makes some sense - I’d try to find an alternative to Wallner as main trade piece Blackburn isn’t worth pursuing Burnes is too much player capital for a one year rental However, we use similar trade pieces to Milwaukee and get back Devin Williams for two years at just over $6M/year. Move Varland to rotation. Sign Seth Lugo for 2,years at $25M total. Rotation is stellar & Pen is better!! Staff is solid and we trade Polanco to get his $10.5M freed up and the pitching adds are $18. Low $130’s Million for total spend for ‘24! Festa - Miranda - Gordon - E. Rodriguez
  8. JD-TWINS
    Who is the clear cut team aligned with kids from Mississippi?? I don’t like the risk but really don’t like the zero contribution in ‘24!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Sorely lacking …. “….dynamic multi position player….” sounds to me the exact definition of Wiili Castro in ‘23 - not sure what Mr. Fangraphs was watching??
  10. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the predicting of guys stats to change for the better, or for the worse depending upon what we want to happen. We can hope they go one way or the other but have no idea & neither do they. You could have said the same thing about Kepler and his return to form at beginning of ‘21 & again at beginning of ‘22…….nobody thought fans would rally around him now, at the end of May ‘23. Nobody knows. I know Alonso hit .217 & struck out over 150 times - the impression I have is we already tied for the league lead in HR……& the league lead for K’s. Nobody’s paying part of his salary to take him! We can’t sign him at a minimum of $25M going forward. He’s a lower value with a one year stint being the ceiling. Moot point to justify IMO. I’d trade Polanco to free up his $10.5M & focus those $$ on pitching.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Last year was rough to watch - one feels for the guy……,but if you drop his first year breaking in at age 21, and the shortened Covid year of ‘20, & include his 140 game season ……..it’s 7 years of averaging 83 games per year. Last year or the last two years haven’t been the problem - it’s his entire career. His injuries are routine and doubtful they can be solved.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I might slide Carew & Oliva in there as franchise competition but he’s at a vibe I haven’t had since Morneau was healthy!
  13. JD-TWINS
    I guess one can hope for an outlier from him……..other teams pay attention to an entire career though and a few months of him getting hot in ‘24 won’t override the past 10 years. …….If he plays well, we won’t want to trade him……,.I like the guy! Loved watching him play CF at the highest level but I seriously doubt there’s any chance he’s going to be physically “better than ever” this Spring. Reality is, he played 140 games one year. The other 8 years combined he’s averaged 66 games per season…..that’s pathetic. No offense to Byron but it’s not a good history!! He’s a great athlete but he’s fragile - it’s not a decision of his, just the way it is.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Trivino seems like the only possibility to me. Can’t have uncertainty in the budget and pay Woodruff $11M to not pitch in ‘24. Then there’s the ??? of whether he’ll be effective in ‘25. I’d stay away from these other possibilities.
  15. JD-TWINS
    To me, Jenkins is a great prospect, described as “Roy Hobbs” by one contributor. Am not going to debate his ceiling. However, after year 1 in the SHOW, if we traded Royce Lewis it could be the worst trade in MLB history - up there with the Reds trading a “too old for his age” Frank Robinson or the Cubs trading a young Lou Brock. Royce Lewis is on the fringe of Stardom in the League after only a few hundred AB’s! Can only be stopped by health issues.
  16. JD-TWINS
    NO team would ever trade for Buxton…….even if the Twins paid 70% of his salary…….he doesn’t play & never has. 1 normal year of availability in 9 seasons. I too think Jeffers has more or at least “like value” to Ryan.
  17. JD-TWINS
    We can trade Polanco along with others on 40 man (Miranda - Larkin - Gordon - Headrick - Balazovic, etc.) as well as prospects outside our “no trade” list (Rodriquez - Festa, etc.) I let Varland be in the mix for 5th starter………sign a $10-$14M free agent arm like Severino to add depth & high upside. Trade is to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to push our Pen to elite for 2 years. The big guy in Pittsburgh could be a target as well although they probably don’t move a local & fan favorite.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Not a bad thought on how to get something done - we probably send Rodriquez & Gordon & Festa to Milwaukee as well as Polanco & an A ball guy to a contender & they send Milwaukee a prospect……..we get Devin Williams for 2 years.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I like Polanco to the Brewers for 2B help they need. They probably don’t want to spend $10.5M during a rebuild…..theoretically they are going to trade some pieces & rebuild in ‘24. They want guys that can help them going forward and with some control. I think we try to include Polanco as part of our package & let Milwaukee move him for prospects with another contender. Inexpensive alternative to Polanco, with some upside, is Nick Gordon. He obviously brings some flexibility to use in OF as well as at 2B. Burnes would be nice. However, he’s almost certainly a one & done rental though…….so I’d move off him and target Devin Williams. He’s under 2 years of control and he’s dominant in 8th or 9th inning. Also, he’s only about $6.25M this year…….this allows Varland to move back to 5th starter & a guy that can come up & down if needed from AAA with options. Polanco - Gordon - Festa - Rodriguez ……..Brewers will want top line prospects for one of the best relievers in the game! We take another $12.5M and sign Severino as a FA from Yankees…….that’s less than $19M to payroll to make our Staff elite. Severino is a health risk but has ACE stuff when right. Worth a shot.
  20. JD-TWINS
    These moves EXACTLY! Trade a couple prospects (Rodriguez & Festa) & Miranda & Gordon or Larnach to Milwaukee for Devin Williams. ($6.2M) Pen is now set for 2 years. Varland moves back to 5th starter. Sign Severino as FA from Yankees for $12.5M - risk, but great upside, & starter depth. Use Varland’s options as needed. My estimation after Polanco trade is $114M on payroll - we add 2 pitchers for additional $18.7M & we’re under $133M total! OR skip Williams & Severino & sign J. Montgomery for 5 years with escalating salary starting at $20M - $23M - $26M - $26M with player option in year 5 for $26M.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I was behind his .272 BA - defensive uptick in CF - 28 doubles & 9 HR all in just over 400 AB’s…….almost every day. Stuff happens. Miranda’s expectations to be a key piece in the core of our line-up were strong last spring. I hardly have given him a thought since July 1. Stuff happens Castro has stepped up - decent CF with a big arm - steals bases - tough to displace! Solano had a better year than we expected from Miranda for $2M. Trams evolve & move on with guys that are performing.
  22. JD-TWINS
    chpettit……even I think the trades suggested for Polanco & Kepler are far fetched to the max…….you shot me down the other day, rightfully so, with Polanco - Miranda - Winder - Rodriguez & somebody else for 1 year of Burnes……,,Peralta for 3 years at $6-$12M over those years IS THE BEST trade target for pitching in MLB……..,Jorge (plus 3 prospects, maybe) for him is pretty silly to discuss.
  23. JD-TWINS
    What happens if Buxton isn’t healthy (about 60% chance is my estimation) & Martin & Gordon aren’t hitting by late April. Grim!! I like to be positive here but the above scenario is very possible ……I can’t trade Kepler until somebody is pushing him out with their bat - not just an ability to catch a fly ball. I realize Kepler sucked for 2 yrs plus but he seems (over most of 4 months) to have found himself in ‘23. Gordon, with Castro - Wallner - Buxton - Kepler & Martin in the wings in St Paul with options makes more sense. Could trade Gordon with a cluster of other guys, i.e. Winder - Rodriguez - Festa to Brewers for Devin Williams? or with whoever for whoever - he needs to be lumped with other guys to bring back value……… Larnach becomes opening day 5th outfielder.
  24. JD-TWINS
    In another Forum Article I mentioned going after Burnes or Devin Williams. Burnes allure is obvious - only for a year though. Williams is controlled for 2 years. I really didn’t think Peralta would be available with 3 years of control left with Brewers. If we could do that - fantastic - I can’t begin to assume I know what the expectation might be for a Peralta. I like Williams because he’s generally been durable - he’s a fantastic 8th or 9th inning guy! His 2 years of control & only $6M range salary makes him very attractive. Festa - Gordon - Rodriguez - Winder……..all for Devin Williams………frankly, other than Raya - Lee - Jenkins everyone not on 26 man is up for consideration! This allows us to move Varland back to the 5th starting spot. We could go sign Severino for $12.5M as a FA depth piece that has real potential, with risk, but ACE stuff. If they move Polanco, & satisfy guys in arbitration (i.e. Farmer, Castro, etc.) the current spend is around $114M…………getting Williams & Severino takes us to elite staff status. Total budget at an acceptable $132M.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Seems like fairly logical progressions for the group………Soto is young & seems like a blue sky guy but am not close to the details. The MOST encouraging thing is that it seems to me, we need no action regarding CF help in FA or trade market. Obviously, need live bodies in ‘24 but the future looks solid!! Castro/Buxton/Gordon can hold it together, I hope! CF options going forward: Martin - ‘24 …Rodriguez - ‘25 …Jenkins - ‘26 Wallner moved to RF & Martin drifts to LF over time? With CC in place for 5 years……Lewis - Lee - Julien - Kirilloff - Severino as additional IF pieces, how are we serious about any other IF prospects we have in our system due to be ready in next 3-4 years?
×
×
  • Create New...