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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    No issue with trading DeSclafani’s salary away for little return to help pay for Montgomery!!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Similar thoughts: 1) Played about as poorly as possible on offense from May 1 - July 20. Actually, not much better in April, just won more. Gotta be better with the line-up going out there in ‘24. 2) Both guys were in their 2nd years in the Show last year. With health, they have to improve. Frankly, I don’t think Ober can be much better other than just remaining durable and taking the ball - his performances were generally pretty good! Ryan needs to master his command, very difficult thing, to be more effective in ‘24. 3) I think they could add to the Pen to offset any Starter deficiencies. I’ve said 15 times here they should push chips to the middle for Devin Williams - more control (2 yrs.) - affordable $7.25M - lights out pitcher. Otherwise, if they can’t spend much, sign H.J. Ryu to split the #4-#5 slot and move Varland to the Pen……..OR, if Varland looks really good, maybe the better way to get innings that matter with least risk of overuse, is to put Paddack in the Pen? He looked really, really good in September & October. Ryu - DeSclafani - Festa - Paddack could over the #4/#5 slots. ……………… Jordan Montgomery would simplify everything!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    The ACE talk is oversimplified IMO. It’s great to say we need an Ace - we need at least a #2, but it isn’t a simple thing to make happen. Can’t sign Snell due to years/$$, nor should we sign Snell. Jordan Montgomery for 5 years and $130M is a big stretch & that’s his low end - oh, & there’s probably 6-10 other teams in the mix for him. Clevinger could be a #2-3 guy but not any more consistent nor better than the Ryan/Ober combination. H J Ryu could be an uptick over Kuechel - great history - low ERA - been hurt most of last 2 years. ”Trade” for one………..teams really like to keep their best 1 or 2 pitchers! Burnes would have been a wasteful one year rental that would have depleted young assets. I target Devin Williams in the midst of the Brewer reshuffle ……..he’s got 2 years of availability & they need some starting pitching. We could TRY with DeSclafani - Winder - Headrick - SWR & the late #1 compensatory pick we’re getting for Gray. The Brewers have traded Houser & Burnes & lost Woodruff. Need some MLB arms to eat innings & be competitive. Williams is maybe the best reliever in the game & he makes $7.25M & then $10.5M. Adding him & Topa to our existing mix would establish a dominant Pen for next 2 years. With the DeSclafani exchange the Twins only spend $3.25M more $$. #5, roll with Varland - Festa ………..sign Ryu or preferably Clevinger. With TV $$ seeming to be more & more certain, taking the payroll to $142M seems realistic - still an 8% reduction from last year.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I think Louie can succeed but it sounds like the Everly Brothers in the background, Dreeeam - Dream, Dream, Dream - Dreeeam. Lopez threw 194 innings in ‘23 and we’re expecting/hoping for 200 innings from Varland? Ober threw 164 innings last year - we think he may back up & not reach 150 but hoping Varland throws 200??? Louie should be expected, like most full season, first year guys, to hit 115 innings. Lopez at 190 again - Ryan at 170 - Ober at 160 - Paddack at 115 - DeSclafani at 100 - SWR & Festa maybe 90 innings combined. That’s approximately 940 innings by starters. Some of Desclafani’s & Varland’s innings may be in long relief? 1450 regular season innings to be played……this leaves 510 BullPen innings. Seems to add up with 11-12 guys through the year in the Pen.
  5. JD-TWINS
    I saw some video of Festa a couple days ago - he’s got 4 decent pitches! I think he will be able to throw 75 innings in the Show from July toward October. His curve looked good - sinking change-up - high riding fastball, like Ryan’s - along with a slider. I was impressed.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Farmer & Santana are the two depth guys for the infield. Miranda has essentially zero chance out of Spring Training to play for the Twins - he may play somewhere else? Santana has missed only a couple weeks since 2014 due to injury and Farmer was available every day last year other than the few weeks out after getting hit in the face. Santana has experience & no mental issues with being DH. Sound defender at 1B. 2 catchers…………that’s 8 on the dirt. Wallner - Buxton/Castro - Kepler………Gordon or Martin or FA signing of Duvall for the 5th spot. I can’t see Larnach because he can’t add depth in CF. Larnach could make it if RAKING in Spring Training since Martin has options, so he could be up & down as Buxton’s availability goes up & down. Good problems - position players seem set & if they add Duvall, with Martin as his back-up from St. paul, it would be fantastic.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Santana’s the insurance policy needed - his blah year in ‘23 stacks up as even to, or a little better, than Miranda’s 2022……..and he’s way better defensively. Just makes sense to establish a floor for offensive expectations with some potential for better results when mixed into a better line-up. Miranda’s WAR in ‘22, with roughly 440 AB’s, was 1.0. Santana’s WAR in ‘23, with roughly 550 AB’s, was 2.7. He hit 23 HR’s last year. He plays every day if needed. Seems to be a no brainer!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Gallo didn’t displace anybody in ‘23 ……so, they may have spent $5M more than everyone would have liked. It was a risk & he was pretty good well into May. After July 15 it was obvious he was just around for defensive insurance & his flexibility defensively. He had no shot at the Playoff roster but they didn’t want to release him because he could defend across the OF & play a good 1B. They were paying him either way and couldn’t option him. They kept him in September with the roster expansion and on October 1st they tipped their hat and removed him from the 26 man. It was frustrating to watch but he actually brought value most of the time (not defending 3K’s per game!) with some surprise HR’s and a great glove.
  9. JD-TWINS
    My timing is such that I’m aware of the Santana signing……an advantage! Julien will start every game there’s a RH pitcher, plus some pinch hit opportunities. He’s in the line-up as a starter 70% of the time, minimum. He won’t get a moment at 1B regardless of what he said at Twins Fest……,maybe, if Kirilloff goes in IL for extended period of a month or more. Santana posts - he’s a switch hitter - that’s his M.O. & he’s a good defensive guy at 1B. Kirilloff starts 70% of games at 1B as his health allows. Santana the balance of starts. Farmer at 2B, 25% - 30% (45 games) of the time facing LH starters. Rests CC as needed through the year (20 games). Rests Lewis as needed through the year (30 games). Pinch hits a dozen times or so. 4 games started per week where & when needed. Farmer & Santana are the depth guys in the infield. Castro is depth guy behind the Wallner/Buxton/Kepler trio playing CF a bunch as Buxton will need to DH to stay healthy. Last OF spot?? I do not think they can carry Larnach because he can’t play CF. Gordon needs to hit in Spring Training or he’s gone. Martin fits the flexibility mold and hits RH. We’ll see………..don’t see anymore position signings………Duvall would fit but that eliminates Larnach & Gordon from being involved on the club in ‘24. Martin can go up & down from St. Paul. With Santana signing, Miranda, as well as Larnach & Gordon are all prime trade guys that may not have extreme value but they are better than prospects for some other teams.
  10. JD-TWINS
    It’s a move Team’s make - the Defending World Champs claimed him when Reds released - are they clueless as well? I live in Cincinnati & have seen him 6-7 times. He’s Pagan like to fans, but only 27. He had a 3.69 ERA. He’s not a multi-dimensional guy and he has some control issues. He can look very good at times as well, hence the ERA. If Twins can work with him in St. Paul, his velocity may jump 1-2 MPH &/or they work in another pitch &/or his control. Worth a shot with an option left!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Santana is the perfect compliment to Kirilloff in the RH batter’s box. If Kirilloff gets nicked they have a guy that posts every day he’s asked to play. He can play two months straight if needed. Also, as a complete aside, I’m assuming he can handle the bat and advance runners with contact if overmatched & can bunt as well. Veteran that doesn’t strike out at a high rate and walks at a good rate & plays great defense (that seems overlooked here) at 1B —- with 23 HR power as recently as 2023!! This is the front office adding a guy of value and getting mostly nothing but static about the move - lots & lots of critics last year with Solano signing as well! We’ll see.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Team shouldn’t develop in Minneapolis, develop in St. Paul. He establishes a floor at 1B. “Chances” in the Show come in rebuilding organizations or out of desperation. Santana’s actually better on defense than anyone else we roster……..+11 in one rating & +2 in a second rating. Can move his salary somewhere at the break if he’s underperforming (via trade or release) or if Miranda - Severino & Co. are pushing their way in to the team. Better than getting to Spring Training with a clear option v. hoping Miranda can get back to similar production to that of typical Santana. Miranda’s 2022 (his good year) he had a .325 OBP & .751 OPS with 1.0 WAR & 15 HR in 444 AB’s. Santana’s 2023 was a .318 OBP & .747 OPS with 2.7 WAR & 23 HR in 550 AB’s. The WAR is higher because of 110 more AB’s & much better defense. They established a Floor for that role and it matches up favorably - at least level, to Miranda’s 2022.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Still think the rotation on the dirt is very solid……….can’t discount that even with his solid contributions in ‘23, he only played in 80 games - didn’t start in some - DHed in some. The infield did pretty well w/o him, not perfect. Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff (Farmer/Miranda) & Castro in emergencies is a good group IMO. Farmer is depth at SS & 3B for rest & he platoons at 2B.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Predicting 30-40 games in CF, as if I know. Balance of 120 total (80) will be at DH. Duvall can catch the ball & had 21 HR in 92 games last season. Can use Martin’s options to fill in if Duvall is hurt for couple weeks at a time.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Duvall is a better fit…….less cost, maybe $10M & just 1 year or with some flexibility with a buyout for the 2nd year. He hit 21 HR in 92 games in ‘23. He’s a veteran with playoff experience. He can play CF/LF/DH as needed. Solid player, when healthy. He could be combined with Martin as a AAA back-up. Buxton will principally be a DH so defensive depth is necessary. Soler can’t really play defense……a liability.
  16. JD-TWINS
    ‘23……..Clevinger 9-9 with the lowly White Sox. 131 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He seems to work well at $16-$17M - flip DeSclafani’s salary in a trade and there’s $12M available against Clevinger’s number. 2 year deal & 2nd year mutual option. Montgomery for 5 years is the best move to me.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Maybe Duvall fits the high end of that $$ available number??
  18. JD-TWINS
    Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/year with player option in year’s 4 & 5 would be a fine signing to me. Martinez & Soler are both essentially just guys that DH………we have Byron Buxton slotted there for a big chunk of games. Lack of position flexibility/ability seems to be counterintuitive to the Twins M.O. Both more $$ than willing to spend for offense…….Duvall is much better value. Chapman is a non-starter with our infield depth. Signing Snell is nuts with his health history……….more Cy Young’s than complete games as an aside. Bellinger - 12 years - seriously? Even 5 years seems like a stretch and anything more than $20M, with his ‘20-‘22 seasons factored in, the equation makes him seem like not somebody to consider.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Don’t disagree, just because there are guys with potential all around him……waiting to succeed. Buxton is a physical freak when healthy so tough to compare him with most guys when he’s healthy……….been 9 years with Byron though - 1 year above 100 games. Kirilloff has been up for 3 years……..wrist in ‘21 - ‘22 - early ‘23. Assuming that’s fixed now? Messed up shoulder that’s fixed now? He should get a year’s worth of runway with only 700 AB’s to date. Buxton career: .239 BA - .300 OBP - 106 OPS+ Kirilloff career: .259 BA - .319 OBP - 104 OPS+
  20. JD-TWINS
    As stated, I like Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B and that’s it ………. hoping for 20 years from now it’s F. Robinson, Henry Aaron, & Royce Lewis as great corner OF’s! They tried him due to ability & fit in CF - unfortunate injury. Seems he could handle LF to get the other guy’s bats in the line-up?………maybe he’s at 1B & Kirilloff moves to the grass? Farmer is the back-up SS - back-up 3B - platoon 2B. No first base, as you state.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Last post of the day - BIG error by me above here, not trying to confuse……mixed up Julien’s PA’s with AB’s. (16 HR in 338 AB, so HR every 21.2 AB) my bad! Eddie with mild power advantage. Point is still that they are both good players/hitters. That said - was watching Hot Stove a bit on MLB. They were saying Josh Naylor was going to lead the Guardians back into the “Central mix”. ’23 comparison for kicks: Naylor - 17 HR in 452 AB - .354 OBP - OPS+ 133 Kirilloff - 11 HR in 281 AB - .348 OBP - OPS+ 117 Julien - 16 HR in 338 AB - .381 OBP - OPS+ 130 Both Twins players outshine Naylor with same AB’s & Guardians are building around his lead. Seems we have a couple of keepers!
  22. JD-TWINS
    No issue. Assuming Farmer is the “rest guy” for CC and the “rest guy” for Lewis, especially if Miranda doesn’t make the 26 man. Also, he’s the platoon at 2B v. LH pitching most of the time.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I saw $118M was the expected player spend/payroll for ‘24 about 10 days ago from one, somewhat confusing, source. Twins moved Polanco, reduction to $108M. They got $8M in cash supposedly in the trade, spend reduction to $100M. Add Topa & DeSclafani’s salaries of $13M, total now to $113M. Last season payroll at $154M…….typical add to payroll is 5% minimum in MLB. That number would typically bring the total to $162M. The impression I got from reading here, the lost TV revenue was 50% of the contract total with typically half going to MLB. Not sure of these details but I think that’s accurate. There will be some TV revenue to be had - just no guaranteed path nor number at this point. Getting close to a solution per yesterday’s Athletic. Assuming zero TV revenue - $162M expected spend after going to 2nd round of playoffs and typical 5% add, then less the $27M of actual lost TV revenue = $135M payroll expectation at a minimum. Sign Solano & Clevinger - go to Spring Training.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Love position flexibility - am doubtful though that Eddie Julien should be part of this type of approach. Sounds good, but expecting him to move around seems to be outside of the scope of sound judgement. I don’t have a crystal ball but it seems to me that mastering/becoming adequate at 2B is a high enough expectation. Good hitters are hard to find - cultivate. Kirilloff - Julien - Wallner - Lee - obviously Lewis - Jeffers, these are ALL guys the organization needs to hold on to with their upside. Jenkins is untouchable. Can’t make trades just to be active or interesting for the fan base. That said, any other position players should be on the “available list” for trades. Maybe we can’t get a #2 rotation guy via trade by holding on to these guys - gotta take the bad with the good IMO. Sign a FA pitcher & all good!
  25. JD-TWINS
    So I agree on a back up plan - gotta keep rolling if Kirilloff is hurt. Prudent to try Julien there some in the Spring. Seems most of the friction on Kirilloff comes from Lee needing a spot on the dirt. Last year, when Lewis only played 3B about 58 games, the slant was Lee slotted best on the left side and could drop in at 3B flawlessly. I see Lewis as the most athletic and capable to switch positions. Going forward into ‘25 (assuming a blended approach in ‘24) it could be Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF OR Lewis at 1B and Kirilloff in LF. Let Lee play 3B & Julien play 2B and let them get secure in those spots.
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