JD-TWINS

What happens if Buxton isn’t healthy (about 60% chance is my estimation) & Martin & Gordon aren’t hitting by late April. Grim!! I like to be positive here but the above scenario is very possible ……I can’t trade Kepler until somebody is pushing him out with their bat - not just an ability to catch a fly ball. I realize Kepler sucked for 2 yrs plus but he seems (over most of 4 months) to have found himself in ‘23. Gordon, with Castro - Wallner - Buxton - Kepler & Martin in the wings in St Paul with options makes more sense. Could trade Gordon with a cluster of other guys, i.e. Winder - Rodriguez - Festa to Brewers for Devin Williams? or with whoever for whoever - he needs to be lumped with other guys to bring back value……… Larnach becomes opening day 5th outfielder.

In another Forum Article I mentioned going after Burnes or Devin Williams. Burnes allure is obvious - only for a year though. Williams is controlled for 2 years. I really didn’t think Peralta would be available with 3 years of control left with Brewers. If we could do that - fantastic - I can’t begin to assume I know what the expectation might be for a Peralta. I like Williams because he’s generally been durable - he’s a fantastic 8th or 9th inning guy! His 2 years of control & only $6M range salary makes him very attractive. Festa - Gordon - Rodriguez - Winder……..all for Devin Williams………frankly, other than Raya - Lee - Jenkins everyone not on 26 man is up for consideration! This allows us to move Varland back to the 5th starting spot. We could go sign Severino for $12.5M as a FA depth piece that has real potential, with risk, but ACE stuff. If they move Polanco, & satisfy guys in arbitration (i.e. Farmer, Castro, etc.) the current spend is around $114M…………getting Williams & Severino takes us to elite staff status. Total budget at an acceptable $132M.

Seems like fairly logical progressions for the group………Soto is young & seems like a blue sky guy but am not close to the details. The MOST encouraging thing is that it seems to me, we need no action regarding CF help in FA or trade market. Obviously, need live bodies in ‘24 but the future looks solid!! Castro/Buxton/Gordon can hold it together, I hope! CF options going forward: Martin - ‘24 …Rodriguez - ‘25 …Jenkins - ‘26 Wallner moved to RF & Martin drifts to LF over time? With CC in place for 5 years……Lewis - Lee - Julien - Kirilloff - Severino as additional IF pieces, how are we serious about any other IF prospects we have in our system due to be ready in next 3-4 years?

If Twins are able to make a move for a rotation piece then having Varland working out of the Pen and being an “opener” once or twice a month is a great use of his abilities. Funderburk - Jax - Varland - Thielbar - Stewart - Duran are a nice front for the Pen. I do agree that it sure appeared the Twins were going to give Varland a chance to start - per conversations from both parties last September.

So after all the fury, your last 2 sentences are my point. I do know the Brewers are rebuilding so, though I don’t have their list of prospects & 40 man memorized, they need somebody in return for these 2 guys at some position. We have prospects at many positions that aren’t Lee & Jenkins. Maybe not good enough but worth a conversation here. The trading partner with the Brewers has some leverage as Burnes goes away for free at end of the season - yes, they’ll get other offers but I’m assuming the big boys with $$ wait til the deadline or after the season to try & get him for less. Do the Brewers want to spend $6.5M to keep him til the deadline or do they just move on? Would assume there’s still a little angst from Burnes over last year’s arbitration “cheapness” shown by the Brewers?!!? I like Williams just as much - just changes Varland’s focus & we improve. I agree, we disagree.

“….add an arm from the Farm” (maybe Festa?) ……along with Rodriguez and Winder & Larnach……I think that’s a real possibility (as good as they might be offered) for Williams. How many teams are going to go that hard for a reliever? It would be a hell of a risk for Twins! Polanco - Moran to a contender for a prospect & deal prospect & Henriquez to Milwaukee and try to get both arms from them. It’s a starting point. Either guy would elevate Twins big time in ‘24! We find out if they really want to move Williams and/or Burnes or if they are just talking.

Winder - Polanco - Rodriguez are all valued players. Maybe it’s Moran and one of our Top arms from the Farm? Larnach & Miranda are 2 guys that 1/2 of TD think are going to be revived in ‘24 in the Twins line-up……….I don’t necessarily agree. Brewers need guys that can play - another one or two with upside (agreed) and they need to dump salary. We can afford to give up an arm from the farm along with Rodriguez. As I said - my assumption is they trade Polanco to another contending organization for another prospect. Sort out any 4 of these guys, along with Polanco for either Burnes or Williams. Williams may be the better deal - a little longer control - he’s a lights out reliever in either the 8th or the 9th…….allows Varland to get his wish and maintain his spot in the rotation.

Often in the TD submissions I see naysayers sighting that we play in a weak Division and that we made the playoffs in ‘23 with a weak line-up and we were “lucky” to get in with 87 wins. Now that we have beaten the Blue Jays & were competitive in playing the Astros in October it seems there would be many more believers. I still see comments stating that if we don’t sign a Power hitting 1B or a FA Centerfielder or if we don’t trade for a #1-#2 starter to replace Gray we’ll be sunk. Other observations…….we were 14-5 during the regular season v. the last 4 teams standing in the NLCS & ALCS. We didn’t get all of our wins against the Central Division. In ‘23 we were 15-19 in games that were started by Sonny Gray. I’m not saying he wasn’t a very solid piece to have, but his presence obviously wasn’t the key to our finishing 87-75! …….Can Louie Varland be part of 15 wins in 34 games started? Seems plausible to me. Would I like a more proven starter - absolutely. The TD Forum had an author either today or yesterday that had the ratings of each team’s roster as presently constituted, with FA’s blowing in the wind at this point. The TWINS were ranked as the 6th Best Roster in the game at this point. If Kirilloff is healthy & we can make a deal for a pitcher via FA ($$ available once we trade Polanco) or some extravagant trade move (5 guys for Corbin Burnes) we have an excellent chance of winning the Division. PLAYOFF ROSTER has Varland back in the Pen with Stewart - Jax - Funderburk - Thielbar - Duran……..,Rotation may have a new guy or we go with the Core Four we presently have. Line-up has healthy Kirilloff playing 1B hitting .275 with Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & CC and Lewis on the left side. Wallner - Castro/Martin - Kepler and Lee & Buxton available to DH with the 2 catchers. That’s a solid club without us turning the present roster upside down! I don’t think we’re very far away with the guys we have as of 11/14/23.

Agree with the overview of Larnach - the desire to give him a chance - couldn’t play him at 1B ahead of Gallo (not an option) late ‘23 - Gordon should maybe be offered up first….etc. To me, heavy watcher of MLB Network ….skimmer of The Athletic…….every day reader of TD Forum, there’s no obvious trade partners for pitching ……..who wants to trade proven starters or arms in general???? …….NOBODY, except maybe the Brewers. My slant is the following: Either Miranda or Larnach (1 of them minimum) has a chance to be on an MLB roster for a number of years - maybe both. Maybe not stars but functional, depth pieces at a minimum - reasonable thought? Winder (when healthy was on a Bailey Ober level in ‘22) Moran - Sands (1 of them minimum) have a real chance at an MLB roster year in & year out - maybe 2 of the 3 - reasonable thought? Rodriguez our 20 year old power hitting CF…..a highly regarded prospect with a nice upside. Jorge Polanco - would rank #1 or #2 Free Agent 2B available IF a FA. Solid D & switch hitter with Pop, when healthy……$10.5M salary comes with him. We trade these 7 guys to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams……one year rental on Burnes & Williams for a couple years. Our staff becomes elite immediately! Brewers shed salary and start their rebuild with 6 guys under team control for a handful of years……..the assumption is they do not want Polanco’s salary so they investigate a separate trade partner for Polanco to get a couple of prospects to help their rebuild. Can others out there get behind this thinking? Maybe we alter it a guy but the gist is we believe in our offense and with these two guys totaling $18-$22M total (saved $10.5M with Polanco move & have now to spend) we have the best set-up guy in the game, in Williams, to go with our best closer in the game, Duran. We then have Stewart - Jax - Varland - Funderburk - Balazovic/Alcala - Thielbar to go along with Williams & Duran. Corbin Burnes added to our rotation along with Chris Paddack gets us back, at a minimum, to where we were with Gray & Maeda in ‘23!! Best staff in the game and we don’t alter our core with Polanco, being the only real contributor being moved, and Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B to take up the slack.

Very good analysis be Nick! Farmer is better on D at all 3 positions he or Polanco may play. The $3.5M difference in salary………. .255 BA (career .255) & 120 games (lost a month after getting hit in the face) in ‘22 for Farmer…… .256 BA (career .270 & .235 BA in ‘22) & 80 games in ‘23 for Polanco. Cost - Durability/availability - D flexibility - consistency all fall to Farmer. Keep Kepler - Farmer - Vazquez…….he is 4th best defensive catcher in league & can’t trade his $10M salary I throw Castro - Gordon - Martin into our outfield options………all ahead of Larnach.

I completely agree on Farmer. Gallo is gone - Polanco is still hanging on for $10.5M……..agreed there as well, he needs to be part of a trade. Julien/Farmer in a platoon at 2B………Lee is coming by July 1 to some infield position. Gray - Gallo - Polanco - Maeda - Mahle - Taylor - Solano are all gone and that’s approximately $52M!………arbitration guys will cost an additional $7-$8M up from last year. If we can trade Polanco (to shed his $$) & maybe re-sign Solano for $3.5M the budget is around $155M - $52M + $7.5M + $3.5M = $114M at this point. If we believe what we read…….before re-signing Solano…….we are at $111M & have $10M - $30M to spend and still reduce budget into range FO has stated as acceptable.

Don’t understand how the Staff is not up to speed? Losing Gray doesn’t help - understood! We were 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. With a new arm, we have a good shot at equaling that success rate or better, especially with the offense you describe. The ERA will inflate & more HR/9 than Gray, but still competitive…….I AGREE, we should add an arm or two through various potential paths…….we’re not weak with existing roster though. Potential Pen: Balazovic - Thielbar - Funderburk - Alcala - Jax - Headrick - Stewart - Henriquez - Duran - Winder……..3-4 other guys on the fringe Rotation: Varland - Ober - Paddack - Ryan - Lopez

I like Farmer too: What’s the difference between his probable arbitration bump to maybe $7.25M and some lower number ………maybe $5.4M? The whole reason the two sides negotiated arbitration into the bargaining agreement is so they (either side) don’t get unfairly leveraged. $1.8M (or any negotiated $$ #) isn’t moving the needle on the budget. Keep Farmer at the real number due to his capability at 3 positions & trade Polanco to shed the $10.5M he’s owed. Farmer is routinely available (other than when hit in the face - lost a month) 265 games over past 2 years ……..Polanco is not always healthy……190 games over past 2 years.

Can’t imagine anyone trading for Vazquez at $10M per year unless they have a frontline injury. He’s 4th best defensive catcher in league so we probably want to hang on to him. Castro - Martin - Buxton ………& maybe Gordon will be holding down CF until Rodriguez or Jenkins are ready in ‘26. I re-sign Solano for $3.25M and let Severino get another year to develop at the plate in St. Paul………Miranda does not seem to be in the plans realistically.

Polanco, if they like, Winder - Moran - Sands - Rodriguez - Miranda - Larnach………..6 potential solid contributors and 5 under team control…….,couple former top prospects & a new power bat with potential!! Three arms to help fill the void left in the trade. Jorge Polanco…….they may use in an additional trade? Opens some slots on our 40 man as well. For: Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams. They want to rebuild & shed salary - could be ideal! Burnes as a 1 year rental with Williams for a couple years………add them to our staff & we’re elite!

Who/what are we trading for? Prospects? Nobody is trading a decent pitcher for anyone we would part with - unless multiple guys from us. Real trade pieces & why: Polanco - lack of availability & cost relative to internal options Rodriguez - Jenkins is right behind him Julien - defense lacking? Wallner - lots of K’s? None of the pitchers named above are going anywhere. Sands - Moran - Headrick - Balazovic are all guys we could pair with a couple bats to do something positive. We NEED to clear 40 man space. Polanco - Miranda - Larnach - Gordon - Rodriguez The Milwaukee staff has 4-5 guys to consider a trade for with varying control. Relief studs & impact starters. Williams in our Pen & Varland back to rotation seems feasible. Polanco - Larnach - Moran for Devin Williams? Better package for 1 year of Corbin Burnes? I don’t see any non-contender taking on Polanco’s salary. How about Polanco - Sands - Miranda & maybe Gordon for another Miami arm? Luzardo & the rookie are untouchable but there may be more there? They are down Alcantara to surgery so they may be too thin? They still need offense & Sands may help ease some depth issues? Milwaukee seems to be the best partner but we’ll have to overpay with controllable potential. They have worthwhile pitching! Rodriguez - Polanco - Miranda - Moran - Gordon for Burnes & Williams………..couple potential cheap bats that have upside after injury’s in ‘23. A big time power prospect! A solid guy to plug existing hole at 2B. An upside pitcher to work with maybe………….. Sands/Moran/Rodriguez/Miranda/Gordon if they don’t want the Polanco cost?

has already declined! - you’re right on with his defensive limitations on left side of infield! Julien v. RH pitching at 2B with Farmer at $7.25M to supplement time there - Farmer another 20 games at SS & 30 games at 3B. Late inning D as well as pinch hitter.

No offense here…………but a Reality check on Polanco: .235 BA in ‘22 and played 108 games .256 BA in ‘23 and played 80 games .270 career hitter Not available and hitting skills declining & making $10.5M Farmer makes, or will, $7.25M and played 145 games and 120 games last 2 years & hit .256 & .255………..missed time this year due to pitch to the face. Career .255 BA - no decline & available! Better defensive skills at all 3 positions than Polanco! Julien needs to play 2B v. RH pitching……..Lee is coming by the All-Star break to play somewhere. No reason not to trade Polanco if we can couple him with Miranda - Larnach - Moran - Sands - etc.to get back some decent value.

He’s hurt year in & year out is your point & I completely agree. The fan base seems clouded by some inaccurate memory of his career. 140 games 1 season …….. 530 games in the other 8 seasons = 66 games per season average. Last year zero in OF. Fans want him to roam CF as a Gold Glover “like he used to back in the day”…….reality is, the good days were very few and far between!!! Another fan issue………What he’s paid has nothing to do with what we should expect of him - he can only do what his body allows, doesn’t matter what organization is paying him. In ‘24, Buxton for maybe 40-60 games in CF this year if the knee is finally cleaned up. DH for 70 games, if he’s hitting. This is a best case!! Castro/Gordon/Martin have to be adequate as the alternative to Buxton in ‘24.

2-3 months in St. Paul & see if he advances a bit more with bat to ball skills - an option if we have depth/injury issues at 1B. Adding him to 40 man is a commitment move from FO.

Out of Spring Training the Buxton/Castro/Gordon combination in CF has to be the solution at least through May. Martin may be a big part of the mix by July 1 but he needs another 50-60 games in St Paul before coming to the Show. Good speed - RH bat - he fits well if the other guys are struggling at all. I sign Solano & roll with him & Kirilloff again. at 1B. If Kirilloff is mending too slowly, Gallo could be signed for $2.5M to play 1B for 6 weeks. I know that sounds crazy but it’s better than losing some viable prospect in a trade & possibly overpaying at 1B. Can upgrade here at deadline if absolutely needed!! Who’s the best guy for Twins to trade for value? Polanco/Farmer/Julien? Who do we hurt least losing & who brings something in return? Polanco isn’t available enough & costs $10.5M……,,Farmer costs $3.5M less than Polanco & is available every day (both hit .256 in ‘23) ……,.Julien has too much upside to trade. Polanco - Miranda - Moran - Larnach - Headrick - Sands are guys (3 of them) that could help a sub .500 club be more competitive. Polanco & 2 guys under team control for a while makes sense for a trade partner. Our problem is we probably can only target a blah to OK pitcher (a stretch) or prospects. Getting Devon Williams for couple years of control or C. Burnes for a year (Varland to Start or in Pen depending on the guy in trade) rental and creating 40 man space by moving 3 guys works for me? Martin & Lee are the 2 shot in the arms we will need on offense by mid-summer.

Doesn’t really matter what you want to trade Polanco for as an observer…. your video comments seem to be a bit sentimental, understood, but team can’t be built that way………what do we need & what can we get? We can’t trade a broken down (108 games & 80 games last 2 years) 2B straight up for anything but prospects. Mediocre - Bad - Rebuild teams do not want a $10.5M contract……..good teams aren’t trading starting pitching!!! Don’t need $26M of salary (Buxton/Polanco) available 40-50% of the time. Outside of 1 season Buxton averages 77 games/year over 8 seasons. Can’t make that situation worse with Jorge!! Can’t! Now, Polanco - Larnach - Miranda in a package ……..maybe Moran or Headrick tossed in for one of the other 3…………this may land good pitching prospect or even a reasonable current starter at end of contract (Corbin Burnes) from 2-3 organizations…….Milwaukee - Pittsburgh - Washington - Miami? CF is covered internally. Buxton/Castro/Gordon/Martin…..something there has to work. NOBODY is trading starting pitching at the level we need - only target staff with enough pitching to consider or I can envision is Seattle & we don’t want to make them better with 2-3 every day guys!! .235 & .256 last two seasons for Polanco ……..Farmer is better defensively at all 3 positions they may share in ‘24 ……he makes $3-$4M less……..he hit .256 in ‘23 & played 145 games & 120 games last 2 years. Gotta be Julien & Farmer at 2B…….with Farmer being depth at SS & 3B. Polanco needs to move to maybe Milwaukee - Washington - Miami - Boston along with a couple other guys under control for the receiving team.

You think Miranda will come back - maybe so? I just see him as an insignificant piece in the organization. Trade now or later - don’t bank on him helping the Big Club is my opinion. Respectfully, saying you have faith that Polanco will have a very good season is like me saying I think Buxton will have a very good season. Polanco 104 games & hit .235 in ‘22 & 80 games & hit .255 in ‘23. No real reason to think he’s going to be more physically available this season…………..at this point Farmer’s D is better at all 3 positions they may play………..Farmer hit .255 in ‘22, played 145 games & he hit .256 in ‘23, played 120 games (.255 career hitter) while he missed about a month after getting hit in the face. Availability & consistency! If Larnach is playing well this year he should be on Big Club….I don’t see him lasting with organization until Spring Training. He’s shown flashes 3-4 times but doesn’t seem to sustain. He looks good but again, hasn’t been consistent.

If we want contact - less K’s - consistency at 1B how about starting Kirilloff 130 games? He carried us for a month after he came up late last spring. He was solid until he hurt his shoulder. He just needs to heal and be penciled into the line-up…….he was our best prospect 2 years ago……pure hitter if he can stay healthy. Kirilloff at 1B & Castro/Gordon/Martin in CF is just fine. Julien & Farmer have 2B covered. Trade Polanco………….Spend the saved $$ on pitching!