bird

Just a guess: Noah Miller?

I'm not certain about this, But one source said that Byron Chourio is not a sibling of Jackson Chourio and Jaison Chourio. Unfortunately. But perhaps he's related? A cousin? Jackson Chourio is a Guardian prospect of note. Recently one prospect guy said he was mindful of Ronald Acuna, Jr. Wouldn't it be fun if OUR Acuna and OUR Chourio were mindful of Ronald Acuna, Jr. or Jackson Chourio? Make it happen, Seth. Do a re-write.

It won't happen, but it's my recurring dream: Winder, Varland, Ober, and SWR ALL look to be at least mid rotation guys, and are ready to roll. Martin moves to the OF and looks awesome in LF and CF, and continues his AFL tear. Wallner surprises with his play in RF and hits bomba after bomba with the Saints. Headrick looks like a great lefty reliever. Royce looks like an every day SS, and Correa moves to 3B to make room. Brooks Lee pounds at the door at season's end. In the meantime, back at Target Field, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda are studs. The bullpen is rock solid. Falvey, at the deadline, despite the Twins holding on to first place, decides to dangle a bunch of surplus vets, and gets a massive prospect haul for Sonny Gray, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Michael A. Taylor, Caleb Thielbar, and Emilio Pagan. Oh, and Dobnak, who's lighting it up in St. Paul, but is behind Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Sands, and Enlow on the depth chart over there. And the plan for a repeat of their 2023 WS win in 2024? An OF of Larnach/Buxton/Wallner/Martin/Gordon, an infield of Correa, Lee, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Farmer, with Miranda the primary DH. No change at catcher. They bat 9th. Easy peasy.

My bet is on Ronny Henriquez, early, as a bullpen piece who establishes himself immediately as integral. My hope is that his role is as a 6th inning type, preceding a group of effective rp's that include Pagan (yeah yeah, I know), Moran, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez, and Duran. Wishful thinking, I know.

I get that, Mike, but that potential doesn't fade away as often as you might think when it comes to prospects as highly-rated as Martin and SWR. Some examples from 2022 of prospects in the system with reasonably comparable FV's to SWR and Martin: Louie Varland, Jovani Moran, Cole Sands, Matt Wallner, Ronny Henriquez, Jhoan Duran, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Jose Miranda, and Royce Lewis. Ten players who played for the big club last year. Add SWR to the list. Oh, and Spencer Steer with Cincy. If you look at the Fangraphs 2022 list, you'll see that 7 out of the first 10 prospects on that list made a MLB appearance, including SWR. Now, not all of them are going to be Miranda, Ryan, and Duran style successes of course. The 3 who didn't make it were Martin, who blew up the Arizona Fall League, Canterino (injured), and Balazovic, who could be a guy with potential who fades away. Of course, a few of these prospects won't amount to much. But I think this is evidence that the chances are very very good that Toronto overpayed for a declining Berrios, who will get paid roughly $20M each year through 2028.

I'd say the answer to your first question is Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Jorge Lopez. Both Raya and Festa are perceived as being better bets to succeed than either Hajjar or Povich, but I guess my question is, if Festa and Raya's chances of becoming a solid Twins SP are low, then why wouldn;t the same thing be true of the prospects we traded for Gray, Mahle, and Lopez? Aren't the odds a lot better that we get decent production from those guys than we would from Povich, Hajjar, and even Petty? But I certainly agree that the more candidates, the better, and IMO the pipeline is a bit thin on the pitching side right now.

I guess I'm just more optimistic than you are, Kirby, for many reasons that can best be summed up by the word "possibilities". It's a numbers game. I'm less pessimistic about the pitching pipeline than you. Fangraphs thought more highly at the start of 2022 of six pitching prospects than they did SWR. They had 14 pitchers ahead of Varland. There's a story behind each of those 13 prospects not named Varland or SWR, and while I don't have a clue myself, there are plenty of evaluators who have a more promising outlook than you do about guys like Ober, Winder, and quite a few others among the 13.

We're not far off, Dman, but we're looking at the same thing and observing slightly different things. GM'ing is hard. I think Falvey's sustainabilty strategy is to maintain a quality balance between the pipeline and the MLB team. Avoiding valleys is hard. The main culprit? Performance volatility of human assets, especially pitchers. Injuries have a massive influence on things, but even without injury issues, players have astonishingly variant performances year to year. Falvey's record is mixed. Like most GMs. Two things I want him to do? Add numbers because it's a numbers game. His pitching pipeline, while better, is still too thin. And trade like a maniac, winning more often than you lose. Trade from MLB surplus primarily to shore up the pipeline, and trade from the pipeline to plug holes with the big club. If I'm the GM, the standings are virtually irrelevant. If they're in first place at the deadline and Lewis looks like he can hold his own at 2B? See ya, Mr. Polanco, even if he's doing well, assuming an overpay surfaces. My arbitrary standard for Falvey is Top 10 in the MLB power rankings 90% of the time and Top 10 in prospect rankings 100% of the time. I believe if he can do that, we'll stumble upon front rotation guys and win a bunch of post-season games.

It's irrelevant to me how those prospects were acquired. Cruz was a FA at season's end. They weren't interested in re-signing him. They got a steal. Eduardo Escobar was looking for more money than the Twins thought he was worth. Hence Duran. Same with Santana. Potentially a great trade. I'd say these trades all qualify as part of a highly sustainable overall approach. Which of these trades would you take back on the basis that they were "selling"?, Or for any reason for that matter? As far as starting pitching, they'll be just fine. Lopez, Ryan, perhaps Mahle extended. Perhaps, among Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Sands, Enlow, Canterino... they get "lucky" and discover a couple viable startersand a RP or two, maybe pick up another via a trade of guys like Polanco and Kepler, and maybe they finally get another Shane Bieber-type surprise to go along with similar Bieber-like prospects (Ober and Winder) in a guy like Headrick or Festa, or maybe a couple years down the pike guys like Raya or Prielipp pan out.

I'm gonna push back a bit: 1) Falvey hasn't been stacking up prospect-for-vet deals at an excessive clip. He's added prospects pretty much as much as he's traded them, and one could argue that the quality of prospects added surpass the talent traded away. The farm system is not close to barren. A lot of our better prospects were acquired in trade, just as a lot of our 26-man this year will be acquisitions that cost prospect capital. Feels like a pretty balanced approach. 2) The playing field has evened out dramatically when it comes to the drafting process. Technology has closed the gap regarding development efficiencies, and league-imposed spending limits curb competitive advantages as well. How does a team gain an edge these days? Smart trades. So, I'd submit to you that their philosophy is to trade effectively, and often, rather than to deplete the farm as you're suggesting.

I get your concern about this, but wonder if it's warranted. I believe the average team uses 22 pitchers during a season (this may be an old #, but the Mariners I think used 42, I kid you not, in 2019). We should unfortunately expect one pitcher to be lost for the season, another to be out for better than half, and a third to flop. If a prospect shines, he'll get opportunities. I'm all for trading Polanco and/or Kepler, but I want them at closer to peak value for one, and I want an overpay if possible. With that in mind, Kepler stands a chance to be much better without overshifts, and Polanco might be healthy. Give me that and a contending team desperate to upgrade at the deadline, willing to overpay. Oh, and Lewis/Julien and Larnach/Martin lighting it up.

Lots of astute observations so far, and also good assessments that question the notion that the Twins have shown some sort of pattern that suggests a defined "model" for sustainability. To me, if one could describe the various means by which the roster and the pipeline have been developed? I'd label it "opportunistic." Maybe that's a model? Sure, plenty of players have been acquired by dealing prospects (Maeda, Gray, Mahle, Jorge Lopez, etc.) But there have been just as many or more trades of vets that have landed us promising prospects (Ryan, SWR, Austin Martin, Jose Salas, Ronny Henriquez, Alejandro Hidalgo, and earlier Alcala and Duran, etc.) And I personally think the homegrown aspect is underrated by fans, especially of course position players acquired in both IFA and Rule 5. But Falvey has also made a few decent vet for vet trades, most recently of course for Pablo Lopez. If I see any patterns, it's these: 1) a risk calculation that makes them favor position players early in Rule 5 and throughout IFA scouting, and 2) an economic AND risk calculation that steers them away from FA acquisitions of starters. The "model" I want to see, and think I might be seeing? Creating sustainable success (trying anyways) by maintaining a healthy pipeline at all times, and a penchant for trading surplus MLB assets primarily for prospects. Contrary to some beliefs, the pipeline isn't depleted despite all the recent trades. They have about a half-dozen Top 100 prospects, most of them on the cusp. It's not Cleveland's, but it's better than KCR, DET, and CWS despite their more favorable draft positions in a majority of the past 10 drafts.

Good info, thank you. Looks like the Twins have plenty of options.

Yeah, I think they absolutely need to have another multi-inning RP in the mix. at all times. One of Ober or Winder make sense, with the "loser" in the rotation across the river. I can imagine a St. Paul rotation of Winder, Balazovic, SWR, Varland, and Enlow perhaps, with Dobnak. Henriquez, Sands, and maybe eventually Canterino going multiple innings out of the pen, and with a bit of musical chairs to give all or most of these guys some opportunities to start during the course of the season. If history is any gauge, about a dozen of them will get some MLB action.

Yeah, but I'll miss him more than Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. What I certainly won't miss? That Bundy, Archer, and Smelter started about a dozen more games than Gray, Ryan, and Ober (or Winder) last year. Those three were pretty much unwatchable for me.

Your viewpoint doesn't reconcile with the numbers. In 2022, Taylor had the second highest WAR (3.2) on KCR, much better than Gordon's 1.4 WAR. Taylor would have slotted in at 4th best on the Twins. I for one am looking forward to not shuddering over the shoddy defensive play all around the field. Would you not agree that Taylor is a vast improvement, defensively AND offensively, over Celestino, Garlick, Cave, and Contreras? Gordon still gets his playing time, just not against LHP. Both Sisk and Cruz have serious and longstanding command issues that make me skeptical that they'll be fixed. Neither are exactly spring chickens or new to those efforts.

I get your point, but I believe we can observe specific signs that allow for justifiable speculation at least. Most telling for me? How often a player credits another teammate for someting they did or said that that player claims was beneficial. In that dimension alone, my own personal observation was that Cuddyer and Hunter "showed more leadership" than, say, Mauer and Morneau. The second thing I personally find to have at least some value is observable body language. I think we can see plenty of hints. The third valuable tell? Certain competent beat writers and column writers who really do their job. They are not in oversupply.

Rocco Baldelli leaves me with the impression that he's all carrot and no stick. Attaboys motivate, but so do sanctions.

Although none ranked highly, Fangraphs noted that the Twins are "loaded" with depth at catcher, and mentioned six catching prospects, including Camargo. They did not mention either Caleb Hamilton or Chris Williams, both of whom would likely merit a mention if the list was redone. Importantly, I suspect Fangaphs will grade a few of these prospects more generously this off-season, especially Cardenas, Williams, Camargo, and maybe even Jeferson Morales and Winkel. So, if Caleb Hamilton, who got his cup of coffee this season, is not regarde by scouts as highly as a bunch of these other guys, that probably bodes well.

Respectfully but also forcefully, I call BS. I'm not gonna bore myself by going back to dig up supporting data, but I sense your perception is complete nonsense, and I'll simply offer Garlick and Gordon, two ballplayers most everyone considers expendable. My believe is that you're no more able or willing to produce data to support your notion that the development staffs of the Guardians and the Yanks have this elevated understanding of how to hone a player's "situational hitting" capacity. Especially when you're talking about a guy in Urshella who was practically booed out of New York.

I DID read your article and all the comments, including yours, my friend. Not everything I commented about was addressed in one fashion or another. A few points of distinction between your view and those of some of the experts come to mind. For example, your opinion that the system is pretty empty and that Falvey's living off the previous regime's draft results, and your opinion that the system very well could grade out as bottom 5. We'll know soon, but I really doubt that will be the case. I get that fans tend to over-rate their own prospects, and I can certainly be guilty of that. You changed my thinking, for example, about Canterino's prospects. But I also think that guys like Larnach can be overlooked. There were 19 prospects selected ahead of him, and 15 of those picks appear headed to have less impressive careers that him. I simply suspect that the system is in better shape than you think, and that Falvey, in pretty much every respect, has significantly improved the draft and development capabilities since taking over, not to mention what I think is an appreciable improvement in trading and other areas of player asset management.

Fangraphs didn't share your opinion, prior to the deadline, that Falvey's farm system is pretty empty. And, depending on one's definition of what a "stud" is, I'd argue that Mahle and Lopez qualify as studs, and they're a product of Falvey's farm system, as is Paddack, and who knows, maybe Brayan Medina becomes a stud later. Royce Lewis will be a stud, IMO. The jury's out on Kirilloff and Larnach after fewer than 500 MLB AB's, especially given their injury histories. I think we may be slightly and pleasantly surprised at how the experts view the system in the next round of rankings. And let's put things into context. Falvey's draft order since 2017 has averaged #16. Compare that to Detroit (#6) or KC (#9) or even CWS (#13), and keep in mind how greatly your odds improve when you have a top 5 choice, as Detroit has during Falvey's reign 4 out of 6 years, KC twice plus two other top 10's, and CWS with two top 5's. The Twins? Royce Lewis, and now Brooks Lee at #8. It's my opinion that the Twins have the second best draft and development capability in the division, and they're not far behing the Guardians, particularly when you factor in the IFA signings. And again, I'll mention the value of depth, where the Twins have a decided edge over all but the Guardians. Are you possibly under-valuing this?

The last few comments have been insightful, and seem to share a view that perhaps things are better if we take a harder and more nuanced look at things. My belief is that one cannot make a proper assessment of the quality of the draft and development process without taking a combined look at the MLB and MiLB talent. Three primary reasons: 1) recent graduations making contributions to the big club; 2) Acquisitions to the club using the MilB talent; and 3) paying consideration to the injury situation. I'm a huge believer in maintaining some "talent balance" between one's MLB and MiLB talent pools. Why? Because I believe the ONLY way, these days, to outflank the competiton on a sustainable basis is to trade a lot, to trade surpluses to solve shortfalls, and to "win" those trades fairly consistently. Personally, I like to look at "rankings", for example ESPN's Power Rankings for MLB, or systems rankings from Fangraphs and Keith Law (not MLB please). My conviction is that if either ranking falls below the median on a consistent (3 years?) basis, you're gonna be in deep doo doo. Things need to have some cyclicality, in that sometimes, you're trading surplus capital from MiLB to augment MLB, and sometimes the opposite, and if you have good quality in both, you can do some of each. An example from this trade deadline is that Fangraphs viewed the Twins as having the second best results in terms of "improving their postseason chances, and they did that without losing a singlr prospect with a FV of more than 40+. CWS, by contrast, did nothing. Why? Because they HAVE nothing to trade in their MiLB system. They have a total of seven (7!) prospects with a 40+ FV or better, and none above 45+. Two last points. To make a fair assessment, we need to look at things relative to other organizations (I use the AL Central because , well...) And we have to account for advantages in the draft order over whatever period we're studying. The pundits are biased in favor of future all-star types when they grade farm systems. They greatly underrate depth. So far in 2022, other contending teams in the AL Central have had three or four members of their rotations give them 19 starts or more. The Twins have zero, and the Twins starters with the most starts are Bundy and Archer. So why are they still leading the division? Greater depth. In every day players (Cave, Contreras, Palacios, Beckham), in Injury replacement starters (Smeltzer, Winder, Sands, Sanchez), and even RP's (Megill, Cotton, Cano, Moran)< to name just a few examples. Detroit, Chicago, and even Cleveland cannot match this. Sorry for the length. In summary, I think the system is in better shape than most people think.

And now add Alcala. Invincible.

Fun fact: Hamilton is the only player from that 2016 23rd round to play a game in the big leagues. And only one other prospect drafted in that round, an unsigned Dodger's pick, has made it after being drafted in a more favorable round later. A guy named Bailey Ober.