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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    This Columbian kid might be a very interesting prospect to follow, in part because he's a catcher. FG has him at 35+FV already, a half grade better than Raley. The Twins have two other catching prospects valued by FG at 35+FV, Caleb Hamilton and Charles Mack, a converted MI. Rortvedt is a 40FV, and Jeffers is a 45+FV.
  2. bird
    Yeah, and aside from Cave, Wade, Kirilloff, and Larnach, they also have all of these outfield prospects valued above the 35FV Raley: Rooker, Celestino, Urbina, Baddoo, Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Edouard Julien, and Willie Joe Garry, all at 40FV or better. That's a dozen more promising outfield prospects, and they might have to move Royce Lewis and/or Blankenhorn there too.
  3. bird
    FanGraphs is not one with high hopes for Raley. They found at least 43 prospects in the system that they liked better than Raley. A ton of them are outfielders.
  4. bird
    Is it possible you are underestimating what the Twins (and others) know about these guys? Is it possible you are overestimating the significance of what very very very little you (and others here) know? They DO have a ton of information. We DON'T. The Twins just concluded their pitching minicamp, where invited pitching prospects came in to work exclusively on improving or maybe developing a single pitch. You and I have zero idea about the outcome of all this. We don't even know which prospects participated. So, for any of us to rattle off a bunch of plus plus stuff from an old scouting report written by an outsider seems a bit silly and maybe a bit arrogant to me. FanGraphs, who I think most of us here find more credible than MLB, gives a 50FV grade to Balazovic, Graterol, Duran, and Jeter Downs. I think, without knowing more, us outsiders would have to say they are comparable talents. The reason MOST of us view the other three to have more value than Graterol? 1. More pronounced injury risk. 2. Starters versus bullpen, at least temporarily 3. More past and projected performance volatility Still, you might be right. Most of us aren't confident enough with what we know or what we can predict to have your level of conviction. Labelling it a stupid decision doesn't sound smart to me.
  5. bird
    Again, could be, but I'd still be inclined to think the medical review starts earlier with the sharing of existing medicals, and then the trade only becomes official once the acquiring team's own medical staff has a chance to complete a scheduled physical of the player. Personally, I find it utterly unfathomable that the Dodgers would take on half of Price's contract without first seeing what the existing medicals tell them. But hey, what do I know? No more than your average beat writer on the subject i'm guessing.
  6. bird
    That could be, but i very much doubt that teams are in the habit of negotiating and agreeing to trades like this without receiving the medicals. Skipping that kind of due diligence, even when the decision can be reversed at the mere cost of a monstrous hit to a firm's reputation, would be an act of negligence in any industry that I've ever covered. I agree that the Twins were under no obligation to share their own conclusions, even those based on medicals.
  7. bird
    I can only imagine their reaction is related to one of three things: 1) a failure to do a thorough review of the medicals; 2) criticism beyond what they expected; or 3) actual new medical information previously unshared. The first two indicate being "pretty naive". I pick Door # 2, but it's just a guess.
  8. bird
    Like others, I'm guessing Chaim Bloom has some buyers remorse and feels the sting of the critics, and that the hesitancy is unrelated to new medical information. However, I'd also guess that Boston can figure out a way to look at those MRI's and find language that describes what's in those images in new and creative ways to make their case if they so choose. I certainly have no reason to expect, you know, some form of honesty somewhere in the mix. Not in this industry.
  9. bird
    Sure. I just happen to remember Pierzynski, Mauer, Garver, and a number of other hoarded catching prospects much more fondly. I believe it's a false celebration and a false description, this whole "end to hoarding prospects" thing. I believe what we're seeing is further evidence that Falvey has a BALANCED and strategic approach. He's trying to win now and simultaneously accomplish three things: 1) have a deep and talent-rich MLB club, capable of being good enough to get to the postseason, good enough to overcome injuries, strong enough to have tradeable redundancy there, and lucky enough to make a run in the postseason; 2) keep enough powder dry in case an opportunity presents itself (by avoiding financial inflexibility); and 3) maintain a pipeline that continuously, without interruption, feeds the major league club. He's almost there already. It's an elite group of about a half-dozen organizations.
  10. bird
    Told you so
  11. bird
    Sawyer is a non-roster invitee to the NYY camp, along with Zack Granite.
  12. bird
    My guess is Falvey views him as cheap insurance in the event that none of Thorpe, Dobnak, or Smeltzer look like they deserve the job.
  13. bird
    My personal wish is that every time the Astros go on the road, the home team situates the team mascot on top of the home dugout during the top of the order, and when the home team pitcher goes into the windup, the mascot gives the signal for the fans to yell "BANG BANG" in unison. Until the league makes them stop, because, you know, that's cheating.
  14. bird
    There's not one hard thrower in the entire system who has even hinted at having the kind of durability of those four Hall of Fame pitchers.
  15. bird
    Much to his credit, Falvey was aware that he inherited a scouting department that was very good. Most of those people remain, and now they are supported properly. Ryan deserves credit for hiring exceptional scouting personnel and establishing a culture where they will not be outworked in the search for talent. And now, Falvey has them thinking smart too. Of the 250 players to make postseason rosters, only one was discovered laboring in the independent leagues. That was Randy Dobnak, and I think he was a byproduct of Ryan's lingering influence. It's nice to have a plethora, a surfeit, of options. Funny thing, in the Zips piece, at the end, the author rattles off about a half dozen names as viable backup options, and most of them make TD readers either gag (Harper) or raise an eyebrow and go "huh?" ( Vasquez). Falvey also identified the deficiencies in development. Pohlad has cut the checks and Falvey has dramatically increased the annual budget and expanded the organizational capacity to a point where other organizations are raiding the Twins for talent.
  16. bird
    Atlanta fans, upon hearing the news: "Cloudy Day" JJCale Twins players, upon hearing the news: "Riders on the Storm" The Doors White Sox fans, upon hearing the news: "Crying in the Rain" The Everly Brothers Donaldson, facing Detroit and KC pitching: "The Sky is Crying" Tedeschi Trucks Band Donaldson home run trot at Target Field: "Slippin' and Slidin'" Otis Redding Donaldson shattering the water cooler in a slump: "Dry Lightning" Willie Nelson and Emmylou Harris A standing ovation after a 3-homer night: "Shower the People" James Taylor His Age 38 season: "Storms Never Last" Phosphorescent
  17. bird
    Maybe I missed it, but when the local beat writers were "interviewing" players, did anyone ever ask the most important direct question of these pampered jerks?: "Did you cheat?" "Did you know cheating was going on?" At least make them utter a pathetic "no comment". I recall one wimpy reporter asking Altuve how he feels when someone calls him a cheater. Pretty much as if he's a victim. Gutless, and the failure to stand up for the fans in a time of moral outrage and instead cowtow to the athlete? Sickening.
  18. bird
    I'd like someone to give me one good reason why induction of these cheaters shouldn't be postponed until after they're dead. At least deny them THAT.
  19. bird
    This point needs to be better understood in my view.
  20. bird
    I'm not sure it makes sense to think in absolute terms when it comes to the Prospects versus established player debate. I think what DOES make sense is having a strategy of: 1. Avoiding holes in the major league line-up. Holes being defined as negative WAR guys. Not every player has to produce 2WAR, but when they don't, you want them to be guys like Rosario, Cron, Castro, and Gonzales. Guys that don't crush you when they're in the lineup. This hold true for pitching too. 2. Not letting your prospect talent become a below-average asset. This is a fluid thing. Most of a system's authentic value is produced by a half-dozen prospects. However, it's absolutely essential to have numbers too, meaning high numbers of those 40+ FV prospects and above. Guys like Duffy, Arraez, and Rogers emerge from these numbers. 3. Trading from surplus, and being rather agnostic about whether that surplus is being dealt from MLB or the pipeline. It only matters that the replacement for that established player project to be an almost immediate production upgrade. You trade Rosario to make room for Larnach. In 2021, not 2020. If Lewis isn't an upgrade over Buxton when the time come? Goodbye, Mr. Lewis. The Twins are in elite territory at this time. They're in the top half dozen in MLB power rankings (SI). They've been in that same range in prospect rankings. I believe that's Falvey's intent.
  21. bird
    Can we assume you will not be in attendance?
  22. bird
    Yeah, and I'd be more concerned about health if they didn't have both quality depth on the 26-man and a handful of prospects who have at least a remote chance of emerging in similar fashion to how Arraez surprised us.
  23. bird
    True. Let's just hope it's not most of them, and it's unlikely that the group that went from "meh" to "cool" last year will all return to "meh". Garver, Kepler, Arraez, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, even Cruz exceeded almost everyone's expectations. How many of those players are going to suffer serious regression?
  24. bird
    Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey, Dobnak, Thorpe, Pineda, Hill, Smeltzer, Graterol, Duran, Poppen, Colina... It would be a minor risk to start the season with this slate, but it might be enough to win the division. We have an overwhelming consensus about both the quality and depth of the position player roster, with Gonzalez, Avila, Cave, Adrianza, Wade, and Astudillo as first responders to any injury. This may not come into play in early 2020, but the reality is we have 7 quite promising prospects fairly close to ready in Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers. The trade value of these prospects, or alternatively of the current regular any of them would replace, is a lot higher than what we're used to having available for trade. With this as the backdrop, it wouldn't surprise me if Falvey waited to make another rotation move until he can zero in on a stress-related opportunity, either yet this off-season (Boston?) or next trade deadline. Bottom line is that their prospect capital is still there and the final hole in the roster is one front line starter.
  25. bird
    Yep. Another $18M lining Jim Pohlad's protected pocket.
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