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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    This is simply a gut instinct based on reading a few descriptions of Martin’s skill set (as opposed to potentially misleading stats): I can imagine the field evaluators projecting Martin’s offense as superior to both Gordon and Castro even. And seeing his CF defense as superior to both. Additionally, it’s my view that the Twins need a bump in OBP more than they need a bump in SLG or even OPS. so Austin Martin, please. Please!
  2. bird
    Austin Martin, please. Please!
  3. bird
    Yeah, someone should invent a left-handed pitching machine.😏
  4. bird
    This, exactly this.
  5. bird
    I understand your POV, Mike, but my own concern is for those who would enjoy having the financial wherewithal to take a family of four to a MLB game, even once a season. I’m all for any behavior that puts a bit of pressure on the oligopoly that is MLB. Mr. Douglas was wrong. Greed sucks. And there’s no shortage of participants in that greed. It’s not just owners, players, and agents. It’s also us fans who can afford the ticket and glamour for our team to continue the craziness that is the current economics of professional entertainment.
  6. bird
    Hmmm, let me think this through. So, the Royals, picking at the top of the draft seemingly for a decade or so, can’t place a single prospect on Keith Laws’ top 100. Another season with over 100 losses under their belt, meaning they’re a bottom 10 in the power rankings and farm system rankings. Whereas the “embarrassing” Twins get top 10 rankings in some corners with respect to both MLB and prospect rankings. Seems to me this article should be about how embarrassing it is for the Royals to outspend the Twins.
  7. bird
    If I were the GM, being top 10 consistently in both categories would be the goal. The be a prolific horse trader, a constant “seller” from strength and surplus. MLB players for prospects, minor leaguers to solve deficiencies and to stick the farm when that opportunity comes along.
  8. bird
    Speaks to the argument that, all things being equal talent-wise, take the position player. Although, in the Twin’s case, they made the right choice but got a little unlucky on the injury front.
  9. bird
    If TD writers were relying on their own eyeballs in producing these reports and rankings, I certainly wouldn’t be reading this stuff. Fortunately, they’re pouring over things written by people with more expertise, and when available, doing a terrific job IMO of analyzing the stats when available. As a long-time reader here, my observation is that their track record is nothing short of superb.
  10. bird
    You’re probably right. My expanded optimism is Lewis moved to the OF and Lee bursting onto the scene at 3B. :)
  11. bird
    I’m in the minority I’m guessing, but I think the need for a RH bat from outside the organization is overstated. My logic is based on a few iffy assumptions I suppose, but hear me out. 1) Ass. #1 is Buxton and Kirilloff both returning in good condition. 2) Ass #2: Farmer and Castro are back and can spell/platoon when matchups dictate a day off for Julien, Wallner, maybe other LH starters. Good hitters, and pesky. 3) Ass #3: Martin is MLB ready. He can join Gordon and Castro to back up all 3 OF spots. 4) Ass# 4: Miranda, a wild card, has been worked over by the field staff, comes back healthy with an approved approach. 1B when Kirilloff should sit. Maybe there’s one too few roster spots for this plan. I don’t do arithmetic well. But I don’t want resources spent on Pham, Solano, Taylor, etc. Plus, I like the roster balance of pesky, annoying hitters and baserunners, or decent defenders like Martin, Castro, and Farmer.
  12. bird
    I see Bowen at #22 with a 35+ FV, Gonzalez as #10 and at 40+FV as you said, and Topa at #12. These are 2023 assessments, so with Gonzalez and Bowen, it will be interesting to see if those FV’s change when 2024 is revealed.
  13. bird
    We’ll put. The objective of this trade may not have centered on 2024, but it’s conceivable that it does. The Twins have depth in terms of options for the back end of the rotation (the new guy, Varland, Festa, and then a whole slug of guys who shouldn’t yet be counted out like SWR, Winder, Headrick, Sands, etc.) But don’t sleep on Topa. He may not pan out, given his injury history, but if he does, the team is already better in 2024. Polanco was no longer a difference maker. Topa might be. Longer term, Daren Bowen may be what makes this trade an excellent one because he’s a promising development project, which plays into a strength of ours. And Gabriel Gonzalez is a 45+ FV guy! Solve his plate discipline issues and you have a top 10 prospect.
  14. bird
    Nice list. Although I have the sense that we’ll see a number of prospect gurus rank Danny DeAndrade ahead of Yunior Severino, Jose Rodriguez ahead of Kala’i Rosario, and Connor Prielipp will also make some lists.
  15. bird
    Agreed, they can’t predict production volatility. They assess innate talent and separately, current skill level, and then make an extremely educated guess as to whether that gap can be closed. For the reason you mentioned, I’d peddle Polanco for a”diverse” prospect haul, now, while he can fetch a return. I have no clue what they think is Wallner’s or the other diverse list of players I mentioned, but certainly they have an opinion and a level of conviction on each. I would bet they already have confidence in three things about Polanco: that they have his replacement(s), that he’ll bring them a decent return, and that getting his salary off the books gives them, um, financial flexibility. As for Kepler, it might be wishful thinking on my part that his production can be replaced. As I said, if I’m GM, and I should be 😏, Lewis takes LF, Wallner goes to RF, and the backup spots are a competition among Austin(my pick to stick), Kirilloff (if they believe in Miranda or a move to 1B for Julien), Gordon, Castro, Larnach…who am I missing? Or is this enough diversity to satisfy my pal Riverbrian? Again, if none of this diversities group of options is viewed favorably by my field staff, I hang on to Kepler. But I’m still more interested in a trade haul than a QO draft pick.
  16. bird
    Use apples, dummy.
  17. bird
    I get your logic. 1) To clarify, my field guys have been continuously assessing the MLB readiness of players such as Lee, Miranda, Kirilloff, and Austin, four assets who matter in my decision. So I misspoke inferring that I’d rely on a spring training assessment per se. 2. I have tho option regarding which bets I’m willing to take. Your approach, in my view, is taking MORE bets, each with greater uncertainty, relying on the performance of a single player who has exhibited disturbing performance volatility. I want a “bird in the hand” (prospects), and I want more of my bets tied to my people’s ASSESSMENTS, avoiding some of the performance uncertainty. Of course, I’m assuming, perhaps wrongly, that my returns for Polanco and Kepler will be more than satisfactory.
  18. bird
    If I’m the GM, the QO is not even a remote consideration with regards to either Polanco or Kepler. My first consideration is whether I project that I can replace them out of surplus assets and get like or better production. In my view, the answer is yes on Polanco, with Julien for now and perhaps Lee or Lewis later. Kepler is more complicated, but hear me out. I’d consider moving Lewis and/or Kirilloff to the OF if I wasn’t projecting that some combo of Wallner, Austin, Castro, Gordon, and Larnach, expecting improvements by a couple of them, would give me like production, offensively. Part of the calculus would involve assessments of Miranda and Lee this spring. If I wasn’t confident about it, Kepler stays. But if I’m confident, I’m salivating to pick up prospect packages for each of them that, in our projections, add up to future production that surpasses what those players gave the franchise. If I get a talent premium due to how far the prospects are from MLB, I like the deals even more, because I have my replacements for Polanco and Kepler.
  19. bird
    I often wonder why so few exclusively minor league trades don’t occur more frequently. It seems logical for a “top heavy” org like the Twins to identify orgs with a weak 40-man and propose trades of prospects like Helman and Prato for low minors prospect that perhaps the Twins scouted, liked, and missed in a draft or IFA windows.
  20. bird
    Let’s take a more overall view of this. As a 12th round pick in 2017, would even his agent or his mom think that his 4.4 WAR, which exceeds the NEXT highest in his round by 3.1 WAR, is anything less than a resounding success? Don’t you think Bailey Ober is grateful to this organization? He hasn’t been mishandled at all! He’s been handled beautifully. Kudos to him, and kudos to the organization!
  21. bird
    Interesting trivia: Castro's 1.4 WAR ranks right around 9th among the team's position player. Right where a bench player is expected to rank. Correa and Buxton must be envious.
  22. bird
    Yep. However, this whole season is inexplicable. Undulating as hell on an individual player level. Very few constant success stories, among position players, and only three consistent disappointments (so far): Correa, Buxton, and Miranda. Weird year!
  23. bird
    Yeah, I think you're probably right.
  24. bird
    I'm not as confident about that. I would imagine their decision might be influenced by: 1) the performance and their perception about how viable Wallner,'s and perhaps even Larnach's futures are; 2) what kind of trade value, interest, and offers for Kepler are in evidence; and 3) their confidence that a free agent or trade candidate RH OF, one better than those available at the '23 trade deadline, are an achievable goal.
  25. bird
    First half: Fruit Loops Second half (so far): Lucky Charms Count me as a hoper, but not yet a believer.
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