bird

God I hate Paul.

Got me.

I blame Paul. And Dylan.

IMO? Paul.

Yeah, I wonder if the plans they have on tap down in Ft. Myers won't be more efficacious than we're imagining.

My guess is what.

From my perspective, I'd probably regard Cavaco, Thorpe and Sabato as slightly more likely than either Celestino or Jeffers to eventually capture roster spots and have long careers in MLB. Why? Simply because, in the case of Cavaco and Sabato, they were prized prospects by the Twins, and these first round position guys usually make it. Thorpe has shown glimpses already. The fact that Cavaco and Sabato haven't shown ME anything couldn't possibly be more irrelevant. Every one of these prospects naturally has to overcome unanswered questions. Jeffers' defense, Thorpe's command, Cavaco's bat, Sabato's glove, Celestino's next step... Not a bad 6-10.

Certainly the organization would like these prospects to be playing games here in June. However, I'm not sure we have an accurate depiction of what's happening. So much of what takes place is outside of the lines of minor league games. The FanGraphs interview with Matt Canterino, IMO, is highly instructive. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-minnesota-twins-2019-second-rounder-matt-canterino/ Whether some of these guys got tons of innings or not, I think it's reasonable for us to assume each of them got plenty of development attention and still are despite the incredible obstacles.

I get your concerns, but have a couple of thoughts. First, Falvey has already departed from Ryan's past history of over-valuing and hoarding prospects. He parted with high draft picks and a Top 5 prospect in the Donaldson/Maeda transactions for example, and they've articulated clearly that trading prospects is something they're going to do. They've traded several other highly-regarded prospects, too. Second, my guess is that they don't believe they need a half dozen positionally unlimited players on the roster. Maybe they'd prefer that a couple of these top guys were more skilled defensively, that's valid, but i question how much of a concern that is at this point. Larnach, Kirilloff, and Jeffers may not be great defenders, and aren't veratile, but they aren't slouches either. Rooker? Yeah... It would be fun to run an exercise based on an assumption we're all still TD pals in 2025. Pick your favorite available pitching prospect, and then your next two fallback pitching prospects. You'll have a huge advantage of ignoring all the price tag stuff. For example, you might pick Cole Wilcox, who fell due to bonus demands, demands which would have prevented the Twins from considering over-slot prospects Raya and Rosario most likely. Let's see how Sabata stacks up in five years against those three choices. My guess is that one out of the three fares better. And maybe we don't care about that too much because Rosario or Raya are the real deal. So, like you, I would like another Berrios signing every year. It will be interesting to see if Falvey is as adept at developing elite pitching as some think he will be. Deliberations continue.

As a point of reference, like 2020, the 2015 draft class was supposed to be exceptionally strong pitching-wise (Brady Aiken, Dillon Tate, many others). Of the first 42 picks, 18 were pitchers. So far, 2 of 18 have produced 1 WAR or better, and very few still are thought to be likely to come through. (Although the 2 that did, #24 Buehler and #28 Soroka, have come through big time.) Bottom line is the failure rate on pitchers is so vastly higher than with position players that there is logic to taking your chances with later round pitching prospects. I mean, Cody Stashak #380, round 13 from 2015, is probably going to produce more than all but a half dozen pitchers from that entire 40 round draft. Andrew Vasquez, #950, round 32, got 9 games with the team in 2018 before injuries derailed him. So I think the Sabato selection is partly a function of a conviction that Falvey has that the talent differential diminishes quickly after a handful of guys and development capability is the secret sauce. That, and they must be in love with Sabato's potential.

And it's always been a reasonable question, Mike. The answer is complicated, IMO. Because we have to reconcile that there were about 6 available pitching prospects in the first round of this 2020 draft who have similar talent, and 2 of the 6 will likely end up having equal or better MLB careers than Sabato. But 4 of them will likely peter out. The answer to your question involves the question of "which 2" will it be. And in this area of the draft, even the successful ones are mostly mid rotation guys, at best Kyle Gibson types, and my theory is Falvey believes the chances of finding and developing that kind of pitcher doesn't diminish that much in rounds 6-10. In this draft, there won't be 10 first round pitchers worth much, and 10 pitchers had already been selected prior to pick #27. Evidence of that belief comes from the fact that they loaded up on college pitchers in recent drafts, tons of them, playing the numbers game you've alluded to be a necessary tactic. The other things that come into play are that the organization can certainly horse-swap or sign FA pitching talent, Odorizzi and Maeda being recent examples. Plus we need to look no further than Randy Dobnak or Devin Smeltzer to catch on to the reality that Falvey is banking on development prowess. Will that work? FanGraph's interview with Matt Canterino is enlightening and encouraging. So it's not as if failing to draft pitching "early" in Rule 4 is some sort of death knell.

Not sure how you drew this conclusion, but it seems premature and overly bleak. One could as readily adopt the opposite stance and conclude we just drafted the next Marwin Gonzales.

I'm not sure the author mentioning Willie Calhoun means he thinks Alerick's ceiling is similar. Calhoun plays the field like he's wearing Grandma's oven mitts. Alerick may be no better than mediocre defensively at a handful of positions, but he played CF and wasn't dreadful. Alerick was picked #59, Calhoun was a #132 pick. In that 2015 draft in the 2nd round ( picks #43-75 ) only 2 of the 13 position players in that range have produced WAR in MLB, so it's advisable to temper both expectations AND CRITICISM regarding the specific selection. Draft strategy is open game though. Maybe our #80 pick from that draft, Travis Blankenhorn, would be a fairly good weather vane for what to expect. But OTOH, we can dream a little, right? Who knows?

The club's success in IFA is highly attributable to Billy Smith, Jim Pohlad, and Andy MacPhail. It's that threesome that convinced Obstinate Carl to approve a massive new budget that included both capital expenditures and budget room to greatly expand the international scouting ranks. It wasn't until the Twins established a beachhead in the DR and began nurturing relationships with the buscones that things started to look up, and that took years! Credit Billy Smith for very competently overseeing the physical facility stuff. Credit Ryan for hiring and retaining scouts with the talent to build relationships. Credit scouts like Fred Guerrero for uncovering and negotiating and then recommending the financial offers. Just don't simplistically and wrongly give sole attribution for ANY of these signings strictly on the basis of who held the GM position when. It's truly a distortion of the picture and void of meaningful context. Give credit for the right things, I say.

Mike, it's not too early to see a ton of hints. Enough to conclude that things are heading in the right direction, and fast: Randy Dobnak, out of the independent leagues, 3 levels, some success Taylor Rogers emerging as one of the best Unheralded prospects emerging on the scene, like Colina, Balazovic, Sands, Duran, many others Devin Smeltzer, relegated by his former club to relief, gets here, gets converted back, 2 levels, not overwhelmed whatsoever in MLB Cody Stashak, from out of nowhere Sean Poppen, from out of friggin' Hahvahd Tyler Duffey, emerging as a force Trevor May reincarnated Ryne Harper rising from the scrap heap Zack Littell, ratcheting it up There's 10 strong hints.

A bunch of randomness: 1. Agree with gunnarthor: a good not great pipeline. Importantly, many of the same talent evaluation eyes were on Duffey, Rosario, and Garver AND Littell, Rooker, and Jeffers. I have a fair amount of skepticism, despite the absolutely abysmal optics, when a litany of past failures (Wimmer through Jay, 2009-15) are attributed summarily to EITHER crappy talent evaluation OR bad development expertise. Some things are just plain gonna happen. Meaning yes, and no, to both functions, and to both the question of good or bad. It's complicated. For ALL clubs. 2. Kirilloff and Larnach, with picks #15 and #20? Kudos to the scouts. A majority of clubs will want to trade their own first round picks from those drafts retroactively in both cases. 3. Was development good or bad in the past? Nick and gunnathor, you're both wrong. . What's important, we all know, is how much better it really is today, especially compared to the competition. We know Falvey has convinced ownership to blow open the budget. They've added people, knowledge, processes, technology, and resources of every kind to the development endeavor. Results may be inconclusive so far, but it's almost inarguable that we aren't seeing a myriad of hints, if not proof, that development is happening now in ways it never has and up there with the best practices in the industry. 4. The trade record is mixed so far. Besides Graterol and Duran, we haven't traded away or acquired Top 100 prospects. Still, the system would be ranked a couple of slots higher with Diaz, Jaylen Davis, Berroa, Teng, Gil, etc. and one could argue that so far, the production of Cave, Littell, Smeltzer, etc. makes the record mediocre. But hey, I say "Falvey, stay active!" Because if you're drafting late, you better be excellent at getting value for your redundant major leaguers and optimizing trade opportunities. Otherwise, you'll go right back to the old pattern where the system goes from #3 to #22 in two years. 5. If this club is to sustain its current excellence at both levels, they HAVE to have a very high success rate with those middling first round picks like Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker. They HAVE to score with IFA prospects, so they need Emmanuel Rodriguez, Misael Urbina, Edwar Colina and Wander Javier types to ALSO pan out at a high rate. And they have to reel in a Jhoan Duran type frequently when they trade a proven MLB player.

To me, the distinction is between athletic talent (tools) and skills, which are sometimes developed and sometimes not. And sometimes, that tools-to-skills gap remains open through no fault of anyone but the player. Say howdy to Delmon Young for example. I think that's why in large part talent evaluators pay attention to "makeup".

It would be great if Cave had the capacity to transition from an excellent #4/5 OF into a consistent 2WAR starting player, but here's the thing that confounds me: 1. First, let's not replace ANY starter with someone who is not an immediate and appreciable upgrade please. People who are convinced Cave is an immediate and appreciable upgrade over Rosario, I believe, are under-appreciative of how often Rosario is MUCH better than his numbers, on both offense and defense, and perhaps also in the dugout and clubhouse. Simply looking at his slash line invites myopia IMO. 2. The bet I'm making is that Rosario can calm down and achieve more consistency and exhibit less brain flatulence. And if THAT happens, I can't imagine Cave's BEST stretches being as good as Rosario's production. 3. If anything, I see BOTH Rosario and Cave as possible trade opportunities, along with Gonzales. I can see Larnach or Kirilloff, possibly not perhaps until 2021 of course, being an appreciable and immediate upgrade over Rosario. I can see Celestino, Rooker, and others as possibly a superior #4/5 OF, making Cave expendable. I can envision someone stepping up, perhaps in combination with others, to be a better option than Marwin. Maybe Gordon/Adrianza/Blankenhorn? 4. But FGS, do not trade out Buxton for Syndegaard with thinking that, hey, let's just plug Cave in. Please don't create one massive hole to fill a smaller one.

The Twins signed 17 college pitchers, all but one in the mid to late rounds in the 2019 draft. That's a really big number. I'm not sure we can say this will be an ongoing strategy, but it hints at a conviction in their ability to develop pitching. Or maybe at a realization that you gotta keep throwing lots of stuff at the wall hoping it sticks. Probably both.

Guess they gave Raley a slight raise when they moved him after giving him an earlier demotion from his 2019 FV. Either way, he was still behind a dozen outfielders, talent-wise, in the system. Jair Camargo represents a minor upgrade in value, if for no other reason his position and his youth.

Nebraska. South central Nebraska.

But you're right. Acts of contrition would go a long way beyond words that were coached and then a message to us all that we don't deserve having our questions answered. Great he feels remorse. About what exactly? About what damage? Who is he personally responsible for hurting? Besides his fans? Give me a better reason to forgive you, Marwin. SHOW some accountability.

If Carl Pohlad supplies the syringes? His commish gets laryngitis real quick-like. But you're right, only after telling all of us it was all player-initiated and clubs were clueless.

What bothers me the most, once again, is that "MLB" was cheated on, once again, by one of their own. The players were complicit scumbags. Nothing new there either. Teams will continue to be let off the hook. Not JUST by their puppet commish, but by the media and the fans. Just like they were when some clubs, after agreeing to limits, thought it was okay to damage their fellow league members by paying a laughably tiny penalty as they spent tens of millions in IFA that they had agreed they would not spend. The rationalization in defense of crooked owners and management was already in full gear here.

With a Forward by Commissioner Manfred. I don't give a rat's tail about league punishment of players. I'd prefer the ballplaying cheaters to be subjected to the court of public opinion, but we know THAT's not gonna happen either. Nope. He's done talking. Grrr. Until the commissioner is hired and reports to an independent outside Board of Directors instead of being employed directly by the people most in need of oversight, he's guarding the chicken coop like a good soldier. Us chickens will be cheated on by the game again, and soon.