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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    If we hadn't suffered through June, July, and August last year watching him implode, we would likely be pleased that they had "taken a flyer" on this Pagan fellow, who has had some success in the past and seems to have good stuff with a little turnaround at the end of the sason. This sort of stuff happens all the time to the Twins and other teams with relief pitchers. I say give him another shot, but this time let him build up his value from the bottom of the pecking order so he can gain some confidence and hopefully work his way into being a high leverage guy by the end of the season. If that happens, we'll all be here talking about how smart is was to hang onto him.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    Honestly, it would be fine if these were the guys that were outperforming the projections, but it really doesn't matter where the production comes from. A Cy Youngish season from one of the pitchers (Lopez? Gray? Ryan?) or a big offensive season from one of the hitters (a 140 game season from Buxton, Kepler remembers how to hit the ball?) would have a big impact on the team's overall chances. These four just seem like guys who could likely be poised to outperform, or maybe we just don't want them to be as bad as their projections. I will say however, that this might be Larnach's (and maybe Kiriloff's) last shot if they want to stay in the mix for playing time. If we hadn't seen such flashes of potential in the minors, we wouldn't be continuing to give them more opportunities this year.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    I like it. That puts all five of the pitchers in our projected starting rotation in the top 80 pitchers of MLB. Maybe our #1 starter isn't Cy Young, but having all five to be projected in the top 50% is pretty awesome. As much as Pecota was maybe a little bearish on the offense, it seems to be bullish about the starters (and the relievers look pretty good also). I'm going to avoid getting too excited about this in the same way that I avoided getting too depressed about the offense. Let's play baseball!
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    How about a Mount Rushmore of Twins pitching seasons? It probably needs a limit of one per pitcher or It might be just Santana and Blyleven! Johan Santana 2006 Bert Blyleven 1973 Frank Viola 1988 Jim Perry 1970 OR Throw in a reliever -- Joe Nathan 2006
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    Ouch. . . I just looked. The preseason Pecota prediction in 2019 was for 81 wins. If I recall, the end results were somewhat better. . .
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    There are a number of players on the Twins that are very difficult to predict (Kiriloff, Larnach, Gallo, et al) due to previous injury or wide variation in performance. At the 50th percentile, many of the Twins players don't look that great but neither do other teams' players. It is the team whose players exceed the projections that will be successful. The law of averages says that half of these guys will outperform their projections and half will underperform. The degree is what will matter. If the underperformers hit their 45th percentile and a couple of the overperformers hit their 95th percentile the overall numbers look pretty decent. If the opposite happens, look out. We're in trouble. I'm betting on a team win total in the upper 80's, but hey. . . I'm an optimist. I would love to know what the Pecota projections were in 2019.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    The AK injury seems very worrisome, although as a previous article pointed out, the procedure has been done successfully before. Between AK and Larnach, this would seem to be the year that they either take a very large step forward or get passed in the pecking order. For all of their potential, they have yet to show any solid sustained production at the major league level. As for the pitchers, it seems likely that at least one them won't work out (wish I could tell you which) because that's how pitchers go. My hope is that there is enough depth to anticipate that happening and to be in place to prevent the number five starter from being a dumpster fire.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that Megill is the potential surprise candidate for a breakout - not a Duran type breakout, but more like a Tyler Duffy breakout from a few years ago. As indicated, the stuff is definitely there, and he seems to be willing to keep working on his pitches as well. It would be great if he were really solid in a lower leverage role in the bullpen. That would mean that everyone else is doing their job and things are going well. Where it gets a little scary is if he is forced into a higher leverage situation than he is comfortable being in. That probably means that some of the rest of the bullpen is either injured or ineffective.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    EXACTLY THIS. At some point, we need to trust the talent evaluators and hope/believe they have done a good job in putting this together. One or two injuries to the wrong people derails the entire plan, but again, it’s the same for every team. Plus, it really is possible to build the bullpen on the fly at least to a certain extent. As to the naysayers about “this mediocre starting pitching staff” or “this disastrous starting rotation”, WHEN exactly have you as a Twins fan EVER seen a better starting rotation for the season on a MN Twins team? I only go back to the mid-seventies so if you hit me with Camilo Pasquale, Mudcat Grant, Jim Perry, et al, perhaps you may have a point, but since then. . . I don’t think so.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    I do agree that this is a make or break year for Jorge Polanco. I also agree that may have much more to do with the kind of pressure put on by Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, et al. If some of those guys start to force their way to the majors, Polanco becomes a logical candidate for trade, whether at the deadline this summer or next offseason. His value should be pretty solid, with two years of control after this year, and at a reasonable price. If he can be adequately (or superbly!) replaced by one of those players it will be time for the Twins to move on and cash in on any value that he has at that point.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Actually it kind of is. That 0-18 record against the Yankees was compiled over MANY years by many different groups of players on both the Twins and Yankees teams. It is an anomaly if any team wins 18 in a row over another in baseball and winning them over a period of years is even more so. Baseball just doesn't work like that. At this point that record is kind in people's heads -- perhaps even more for fans than for players. I'm not saying that the Twins team will be some sort of juggernaut this year and go blasting through the regular season at record pace, but I do think if reasonably healthy they are certainly improved over last year's team. Remember in baseball, the worst teams win about 40% of their games and the best ones win about 60% of their games.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that moving Miranda back to his original position, 3B, is reasonable, especially when you combine the fact that he was nothing special defensively at 1B and has much more experience at third. A slimmer version of him will likely be a little quicker and more nimble and will likely improve his defense. I also think that opening up 1B for a guy who seems to be very solid defensively there in Kiriloff, makes a good deal of sense. IF (and it's a big if) he is recovered sufficiently from his wrist issues, he has excellent potential as a hitter. If not, we have several backups there -- it's not the top of the defensive food chain. As to Miranda, slimming down does not equate to removing strength or muscle. Miranda carrying a few less pounds of fat will likely make him a better hitter with just as much power -- if not more if he gains some strength through more muscle. It would be trainer malpractice to tell players "Don't worry about your body. You don't really need to report to camp in your best condition."
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Thank you for this fine article about a forgotten but important player in Twins History. He was the Twins #1 post-Blyleven and pre-Viola. The 1977 season with the monster seasons from Carew, Bostock, and Hisle with the 20 victory season from Dave Goltz certainly was exciting even if it didn’t end in a division championship.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    I agree that this is an early point to be considering his HOF case, but this is when the really great players start to separate themselves from their peers. There are lots of players who are on a “HOF Trajectory” when they are 26 and have a couple of exciting years, but their candidacy starts to fade when they can’t sustain the production and/or Father Time or injury steps in to intervene. Sometimes when that happens, the thought that we considered them HOF material becomes laughable (HOF’ers Kerry Wood or Mark Prior anyone?). I think that Correa has a very strong foundation to his case at this point. If he continues to put up 5 WAR seasons for the next 5 or 6 years, his case becomes very strong. An added MVP and/or World Series title will add to the mix considerably. If he is in the top 35 before he hits 30 years old, he only moves up from here. Since his game isn’t built on speed, he may age better than people think and could put himself in position for election to the Hall. As an added bonus, if he has those kinds of seasons in the next 5 or 6 years, the Twins will benefit greatly. I don’t know if that will translate into WS appearances, but it is certainly something to hope for.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    I always like these prospect rundowns by people who are actually paying attention. Some of the national coverage can be a bit lacking. Recently they still had Luis Arraez playing second base all of last year for the Twins and I remember when they had Joe Mauer still catching two years after he had stopped. Those folks just don’t do their homework like you guys do. Of these prospects, I really like Waller and Festa the most. I think they both have potential to make some real impact with the big club - probably not much this year, but in 2024 and beyond. Yassir Mercedes is a player that I remembered them signing (vaguely) but didn’t really know much about. It’s good to get the update. He’s still miles away from the majors, but his potential is definitely strong to be an impact player a few years down the road. Thanks for not letting us forget about these prospects who don’t make the Top 100 lists. They often become very solid major league players.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    I really want Kiriloff to be back in full force but I’m skeptical about the wrist. I have much more faith in Larnach. He had an injury that he has healed from, but I fear Kiriloff has more of a “condition” that will result in a chronic ongoing situation.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    I agree with your thoughts on Julien. I think he has the potential to be really good. I just really want him to get some AAA time this season before he gets the promotion. Even with his Arizona fall league success, I think that some time in St. Paul will help his long term development a great deal.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    If he could hit the Steamer projection, that would be a great year for him and hopefully be an even stronger foundation to continue to build upon. I feel like that makes his success more sustainable over several years than a big spike in year two with all of the added pressure and expectations that would immediately come with that. If the Twins can fill their team with “very good” players in many positions it will do as much for them as “great” players in one or two spots. Ask the Angels how that’s working out.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    Excellent summary of the offseason moves as well as putting them in context of the current team. It would be difficult to argue that the Twins ignored last year’s issues during this year’s off season. There is approximately 100% chance that some of the moves won’t work out, but that is to be expected. We just need to hope that the ones that don’t aren’t in a place to hurt the team too much. Go Twins!
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    While I might agree that this article is a little optimistic (but not nearly as much as a lot of folks think), going into the season in 2019 there were VERY few people that would have predicted a 101 win team. Some may have had a division winner in their prediction, but it took career years (and fluky ones -- 38 year old players with 40 home runs) for 101 victories to happen. Barring the kind of injuries that the Twins had last year, the results should be substantially better. In fact, I would argue that even WITH the kinds of injuries that were had last year, the floor has been raised substantially on the hitting, the fielding, and the pitching bench. I think that a first place finish can and should be the hope. Remember neither Cleveland nor Chicago are great juggernauts.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    Luis Arraez is one of my absolute favorite Twins ever. I hate the fact that he won't be playing for the Twins anymore. That being said, I think this is a fantastic trade. Aside from the generic "you can't ever have too much pitching", which is true of course, the Twins are a better hitting team than pitching -- and may still be so after this trade. Lopez is a pitcher in the same class as Gray and Mahle and whether he slots in as #1, #2, or #3 is irrelevant. He makes the team better and that's what any trade is really all about. We are trading two years of Arraez for two years of Lopez, which I think is a good trade -- pitching is usually harder to get than hitting. The final year of controllable Arraez is being traded for one excellent prospect (top 100ish) and one good looking prospect who is miles away from the majors, which is also reasonable. Untalked about here and elsewhere is that if Arraez had collected four less hits this season, Aaron Judge would have won the triple crown and Luis Arraez would have just been a "good hitter Luis Arraez" and not "American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez." Perception matters a lot and it probably contributes greatly to the value it brought back in this trade. I think there is a good chance that Arraez wins another batting title, but I still think this was a good trade.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Taking a flier on a guy like Adell could be OK and trading a pitcher like Sands doesn't really hurt much either, since I'm pretty sure he has been long passed up in the pecking order -- if he was ever really in it in the first place. If that's all it takes, I say go for it. It's definitely (washout) low floor and high ceiling for some future year. Signing Sano to a minor league deal is actually pretty similar, but Sano is a guy the Twins have already failed to "fix" so it doesn't seem like doing that is going to work. As has been mentioned earlier, skill sets and problems are similar, but maybe Adell just needs the right person saying it to him in the right way. I don't put much weight into him having Mike Trout whispering to him in previous years. Mike Trout is an amazing ballplayer. I wish he was on my team, but how many actual baseball problems do you think he has ever had to work through in his life? Not many, so figuring things out and expressing them is probably not his strength. He definitely has a "relatability" problem as an instructor, and so far, Adell has had a "teachability" problem.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that difficulty here is that Luis Arraez has come to be a fan favorite, including for me. That unfortunately means that we no longer look at him objectively when it comes to either how much the team depends on his particular skill set or how much he would/should be worth in a trade. The downside is that he doesn't really have a natural position in the field, has balky knees, and doesn't hit for power the way an ideal DH would. However, if we think that this year's batting championship is just the beginning of a long run of Tony Gwynn-like or Rod Carew-like hitting prowess then it really doesn't matter. The upside to trading him now is that he may be at his peak value and could actually be used as a major part of a package for an ace caliber starting pitcher. If he hits .260 next year, that value is minimal. As much as it hurts, I think we need to trade him for the right pitcher.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    I really like your take on things. A little reasonable optimism isn't unwarranted. Right now everyone's sky is falling and the Twins will be terrible, maybe the worst ever. . . and the front office is the worst ever. . . and the manager is lousy. . . etc. There are plenty of younger players and pitchers to be excited about this year, plus we almost always score runs somehow. I don't think they are going to win 100 games (although who thought that in 2019?), but I think they'll be competitive and play compelling baseball this year. Correa would have been nice to have, but we have a few other players who are nice to have as well. Injuries may indeed come into play. Or not. Or maybe they will for our competition. That isn't predictable for the most part. I've lived in the Chicago area for about 25 years. White Sox fans are mostly pretty realistic. They got really excited back when they won the World Series, but since then have continued to be happy with some good teams and good baseball, even without being amazingly good. Their glass always has something in it. Cubs fans (Bears fans even more so, but that's a conversation for another day), on the other hand, think that every year the Cubs are amazing, until they are not. . . and then they want to fire the management and trade/cut all of the players. Their glass is either overflowing or shattered. I fear that Twins fans are becoming more like Cubs fans. Sadly that is not a good look.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    I am very pleased with this trade. Gray is without a doubt a solid MLB pitcher -- likely won't win the CYA but also likely about as good as Berrios was last year. We gave up a guy who was several years and several stages of development away from the big leagues -- IF he actually gets there. I am pleased that they traded a player when his value was (likely artificially) high instead of waiting until the shine came off and he had no value. We have a large number of young pitchers with potential and we just used some of that future potential to help us now. I'm hoping that they aren't done making deals. Let's re-tool and make a good run in 2022! Go Twins!
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