Rod Carews Birthday

Hopefully those college arms will be rapidly developing. That could make the situation better in a hurry. With H.S. pitchers, it just takes. . . so. . . . darn. . . . long to see them in the majors, even if they are very good.

Taking Farmer out of the equation, I think it will be Willi Castro. He did very well last year and history aside, I think will sustain his production. He's still young enough that I can chalk it up to "development". (I'm actually more concerned about Lewis and Julien sustaining production -- the bar is much higher for them). I'm going to bet that Austin Martin will become the go-to CF option, hopefully with Buxton, but he may hold his own better than we think. I understand why the Twins kept Gordon, he has some value, just not very much to the Twins. I think he gets traded this winter, either one for one for a relief pitcher flyer or as a throw in to another trade for something more.

Is it common for a lot of players to be picked in the minor league portion of the Rule 5? Four picks seems like a lot, although they seem like reasonable flyers. Just curious.

Since we have learned that Buxton's bat doesn't really work if he's the full-time DH, plus it clogs up the offensive side of the lineup in a big way, Buxton in CF is the best and really only option. I say play him in CF (with reasonable days off) until he can't do that, and then put him on the IL until he recovers enough to do it again. That is how he will be most valuable to the Twins and likely at his most productive level. On those days and during those periods of time when he is unavailable, some combination of Castro and Martin can take over CF. I don't know that I would go so far as to also trade Kepler, but it isn't a crazy idea. Save the money that would be spent on another outside option for CF and use it for another starting pitcher, whether through trade or free agency. We also need to get past the notion that his salary is breaking the team. If he doesn't play a lot, it's $15M, which is a lot to you and me but not the salary of a superstar player. If he plays a lot and produces a lot, he will be paid like a superstar and the Twins will be happy to do it. When he isn't playing well (or at all), we get frustrated by the contract, but in retrospect it was a pretty smart play by the front office and probably worth the chance. As has been said, even 60% Buxton is a pretty good player. Last year, unfortunately, I don't think we really got that.

I think your assessment is pretty accurate. They seem certain to be ahead of the Sox and Royals; and likely the Guardians as well. Hopefully they don’t have one of those “young team gets really hot and overachieves for no understandable reason and wins the division” kind of season. The Twins will be better on paper; but we have to play those pesky games in the regular season. I do think the Tigers with their young talent will be an increasing threat moving forward, but for now we should be safe.

Twins perceived depth chart at CF. Buxton Castro Martin Gordon maybe Keirsey jr.? And that’s without an outside signing, which still could happen plus Kepler in an emergency. If he’s the #5 guy on the depth chart at 27 years old and has only had a little bit of AAA time, I can’t be too upset by it. I’m low enough on Gordon that he might be #4 and I’m still not concerned.

Understatement of the year here. Byron Buxton's health might be the largest factor toward this off-season's plan and for next season's success. If he can play CF and get out of the DH spot (except rotationally, like others), that means that we probably don't need another outfielder that can play CF outside of Willi Castro and Austin Martin freeing up $$ and/or prospects for pursuit of a starting pitcher. Also, needless to say, he can be (and has at times in the past been) a tremendous RH bat that we really need right now in the lineup. Two problems at least partially solved. Oversimplification of the year next. The Twins say he's good to go from a health standpoint. Maybe he is. Maybe he's not. His knee might look OK now, but what weak spot in the waterballoon bursts next and gets us all wet? I don't think I've solved anything with my speculation, but hopefully the Twins know much more and aren't fooling themselves with what he will or won't do. Last year they were looking through rose colored glasses. Hopefully they are clear-eyed about this now.

Oh, I think one can imagine!

Hey! Round is a shape!

Every one of these guys qualifies as a player who I would rather not trade, but for the right offer, as has been said by many, no one is untouchable. I also agree with @chpettit19 that there is always a question as to whether young players and prospects will ever actually develop the way we hope they will. If you look back and project from when they were minor leaguers, did Eddie Rosario or Miguel Sano? Byron Buxton's career has been a long ways from poor, but when we compare him to the expectations for him, it looks like a train wreck (comparison intended). Polanco has probably lived up to expectations. Kepler has lacked consistency but has shown flashes of who we thought he could become. Every team's past is littered with top talented prospects that didn't completely work out as planned. I absolutely love the potential upside of Wallner, Julien, Rodriguez, Lee, Jenkins, Lewis, et al., but they aren't there yet. Will Julien become an acceptable defender (I think so) that can hit lefties (not sure)? Does Lee just have a really high floor (I think so, gets him here faster) so that he's can't miss but probably not going to be a superstar (could be)? Will Lewis experience a sophomore slump (he might)? Right now Jenkins looks like a man among boys, but what happens when/if the boys catch up to him (you never know)? This is of course to say nothing of injuries. The next 12 months will tell us a lot about their future. Somebody is going to get traded and some of us aren't going to like it. It will all depend on the return.

I agree with pretty much everything here. I would add that a championship won’t be won or lost by 3 guys in a core, plus crowning on an inexperienced Lewis and a complete wild card in Buxton as “the core” would keep me up at night. Good to excellent seasons will need to be had by Kiriloff, Wallner, and Julien, as well as by some pitchers in order for this to happen. Maybe a rookie or two will show up, maybe not. Maybe they’ll pull off a great trade or a lucky one. MLB isn’t the NBA. At least 10 and usually more like 14-15 players play in every game. You need lots of strong contributions to win a championship. Do the Twins have a core like that? Maybe. It’s a long off season yet plus a long and unpredictable 162 game season until we get to find out. Go Twins!

This is exactly correct. People forget that the San Diego trade wasn't really Taylor Rogers for Emilio Pagan. It was really Rogers for Paddack, with Pagan and Brent Rooker thrown in as filler. They have all had quite a weird ride, but when the Twins traded for Paddack, it was pretty obvious that they thought they could unlock more in him. That really hasn't changed in that he's still a young pitcher, but now he has more to prove. Do I think he can hit 120-140 IP? Maybe. He will have an entire offseason of conditioning and he has already made his post TJ debut, so that's out of the way. The real question will be whether the team can manipulate his time on the roster to make him last until the end of the season. It will take a little creativity, but I think they can do it. Also, too many are writing off Ryan and Ober as "3rd/4th/5th starters". No. That's what they slotted in as last year (whatever that actually means. . . ). There is no reason that they cannot continue to develop -- Ryan pre-injury might have been the Twins best pitcher. Then he got injured (and stupid - which he won't do again) and had to start over. He'll be just fine going into the season and should be better. Ober was relatively healthy last year. If he's healthy for a second year, it will start a streak! (Sorry, bad reference there). It will obviously take more than 5 starters, but the foundation is there. Add a one good rotation starter and a veteran to stash at AAA with Varland, and I think they will be just fine. Now, to find that starter. . . .

But how soon will he be able to throw in the field in game conditions? They might want to protect that arm a bit more than that.

Obviously if you include Santana, he's at the top as one of the best pitchers the Twins ever had. The semantics are a little wonky, but he's basically a Rule 5 guy. Don't sell Shane Mack and Doug Corbett short though. They were both pretty terrific players, even though they didn't play for the Twins long enough. The rest - Pressley didn't get really good until after he left, Salas and Wayne were just OK - probably aren't major pickups. Let's take a look and see if we can get lucky again!

Let's hope!

At least some movement. This is a good sign that they’re not just sitting on their hands and waiting. They would likely not share this unless they were at least in a negotiating situation.

I’m not an SWR hater or fan, but I do know he needs to get around to putting it all together to live up to the hype sooner rather than later. I’m patient, but. . . . All that being said, bringing a pitcher up too soon and letting him get shelled is probably more damaging to him than it is to a hitter who is overmatched for a while. So in that respect I don’t want the Twins to just dump him in the rotation either. The biggest order of business has to be to get the TV contract figured out. That will answer some of the uncertainty more than any other speculation will..

I'm not sure I've ever seen everybody this riled up before. Wow! The bottom line is that the Twins are going to acquire a starting pitcher (or 2), almost certainly through trade. If we want that pitcher to be a "#2" or better, it will absolutely take a prospect or two that we really would rather not trade. Last year we traded the batting champ for a pitcher like that, and many were upset about that as well. Simply put, you aren't going to get a high level pitcher for Kepler or Polanco. They just don't have that kind of value. As to which prospects to trade and which to keep, I'll put that on the front office. They have about 100 times as much information about each of them as well as how they perceive them fitting in with the big league team in the future. I don't really think there are ANY prospects that are totally off the table, as there are no sure things out there, even if the world ranks them highly. I'd bet my David McCarty jersey on it! It's a long off-season. Be patient. Maybe in the meantime they could get a TV contract moving. That would help clarify many, many things.

Spectacular! These always make my day!

“I don’t know about you, but when I see the White Sox make a decision on something borderline, I make the assumption that they’re wrong” THIS. It should be hard to take a franchise with some solid talent and decent payroll into the crapper, and yet the White Sox have managed.

Here's an interesting comparison. . . Puckett had a higher BA but Mauer had a higher OBP. Puckett had a little more power but Mauer won three batting titles to Puckett's one. OPS+ is identical. Mauer's peak was higher but Puckett's career was good until the end. Except for the championship teams involved, they are more similar than different. Puckett got in on the first ballot with 82% of the vote. I think Mauer will either make it in or be tantalizingly close his first year.

As a potential add on to your list, do you really think Alcala will eventually put it together and make things happen? I know the Twins have decided he is worth tendering an offer to, but that might be wishful thinking at this point.

While these are definitely guys on the fringes, it’s still a tough call. The reality is that none of them may ever develop into an effective MLB pitcher, but with the ridiculous extreme variability of relief pitchers, it’s also possible that one of them (or more!) could be good to excellent as soon as next season. Some will certainly be gone as roster space is taken by acquisitions, but two or three will likely stick around. For my money, SWR stays just based on age and being a part of a major trade, then it is Headrick based on left-handedness. I think Balazovic has the highest upside, but seems least likely to find it out of any of these guys, which makes him a little tantalizing (nice way of saying frustrating). Winder and Sands are completely fungible and easily replaceable with pitchers just like them off of the free agent list or waiver wire. OR, I could be wrong and Sands or Winder will make the all star team next summer for the Kansas City Royals.

Mattingly and Williams are in the Hall of Very Good - stats no better than Mauer and don't play catcher. If Mauer is only a maybe, they become no way. A Rod and Clemons are the steroid poster children, that's a different argument but one I'm not willing to have. Andy Pettitte is a guy with solid counting stats that benefited from pitching on a bunch of really good teams - a little like Jack Morris, who probably wouldn't have gotten in were it not for the 1991 WS. Good players all, but probably not hall of famers. Your mileage may vary.

Completely agree with this. A factor that makes his candidacy more complicated is that Mauer is definitely viewed in more favorable terms outside of the Twins market than within it (but without getting the big market bounce). Here, he suffered from unrealistic expectations after he signed his long term contract, which hurts his image immensely, even if he didn't deserve it. Somewhere along the way, some Twins fans decided that since he wasn't perfect and immune to injury, he wasn't any good. That's unfortunate. Bottom line, I think he gets in along with the aforementioned Beltre and Helton. I personally think (and others don't, I get that) that the "first ballot hall of famer" designation is ridiculous. Hall of Famer is Hall of Famer. Period. Either he deserves to be in or not, and Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer.