Rod Carews Birthday

It's kind of like back in the day when Charles Barkley said that he knew that if he was leading the SEC in rebounding, his grades would be fine. In the same way if Kirilloff puts up a .900 OPS, his defense will be fine. The problem is multifaceted. He's occasionally be very productive, but he's been hurt a lot, which makes him unavailable. He was drafted to be a bat first player, and when he stops having the bat to make up for the glove, he becomes a lot less valuable and his defensive prowess (or lack thereof) starts to matter a lot more. I agree that this is probably it for him. He either hits (and is healthy), or finds himself replaced by another player who will. The presence of Santana is not a big deal, but the Twins have plenty of good infielders who might take over 1B and never give it back.

Actually, that was back in the days when the Twins were teaching players to go to the opposite field and put the ball in play Punch and Judy style. The complaint that Ortiz had was that they weren't letting him be the power hitter he was, and when he got to Boston they let him swing away. Presto. . . he's a power hitter. So, no. Those aren't the right dots to connect. This isn't an either/or scenario. We need players like Arraez and we need players like Max (the 2019 and last half of 2023 version) in order to have the maximum effect. In retrospect, they were certainly wrong to try to make Austin Martin into a power hitter, but they didn't know that at the time (and neither did anyone else). It was a gamble they took so that they could take someone with a good hit tool and add the power tool. Without it, Austin Martin is likely to be somewhere from a fringy major league utility guy to a decent MLB player. With it, he could be a big star. That's the gamble they took and in this case they lost. They did the same with Buxton. It took awhile, but it seems to have worked, even if he can't stay healthy, but that's a different subject.

I like the idea of getting more of the "younger" voices involved in the broadcast team. However, it would be great to grab some of the oldest Twins alumni -- i.e. Kaat, Carew, etc -- and have them stop by for just a game or two. Some of these guys may not be around that much longer and it would be a shame if we missed out on them one more time.

You might be correct. For me though, having Lewis in the OF is likely to result in a better, more athletic OF defensively (he’s certainly more athletic than Kirilloff or Julian), while keeping everybody in the mix offensively. I don’t think Rocco wants a full time DH unless something obvious forces his hand like a Thome or a Big Papi. He would like to use it as the half day off for key contributors. I think Buxton’s parking place there at the beginning of last season was one of the reasons for the team’s slow start offensively.

Correa certainly has enough of a track record to give a person faith that there will be a bounce back offensively, and probably defensively as well. It’s a beautiful thing to have a shortstop who is good enough to be at least OK while having the worst offensive year of his career. That’s a pretty great floor level. Lewis, on the other hand, hasn’t had that kind of major league track record. All signs point to success, but you never know what will happen going forward. I’m thrilled to be at the point where we can speculate about a situation like this. One of the things that I hope is happening with the Twins is that we are developing players whose floor in their worst season is still more than playable. Simply put, not everyone has to have a career year to go far in the playoffs. A couple of people likely will have that career year, but it won’t take the whole team doing so in order to have success. My hilarious example for this is the 1965 Twins. Harmon Killebrew, arguably their best player) was hurt part of the year and had arguably the worst year of his prime (and still managed a 145 OPS+ (!!!!!), over 4 WAR and MVP votes) but the team managed to win a bunch of games and make it to seven games against the Dodgers in the World Series. There were plenty of other seasons that went extremely well for players (ahem, Mr. Versalles) but what an amazing team that was to sustain through an injury laden season for their biggest star.

WOW! That’s a ridiculous level to maintain! Count me in!

I have a tremendous amount of long term faith in Lewis to become a star, however, like all of last year’s rookie crop, there will likely be some speed bumps along the way — hopefully none of them are injury related and the fans exhibit some patience (!!!) with them. I think that in time Lewis may get moved off of third base (or not, and that’s OK too). I think a lot of whether he gets moved actually depends on Kirilloff. If Kirilloff displays star level talent at first base, then I think he keeps that spot and Julien stays at second, with Lee becoming the likely third baseman and Lewis going to the outfield. If Kirilloff doesn’t step forward, then I think Julien is destined for first base, with Lee at second and Lewis at third. The first situation would be unbelievably great, and the second would be OK as well. This season will tell a lot about what happens long term.

I think you are correct about that. My guess is that part of the trepidation is just Lewis having a little bit of the yips about the outfield since he got hurt there so quickly (and weirdly). I probably would too until I got used to the idea. Give it a little time and that flexibility may show itself again — or he may be asked to show it again!

I hope you’re correct. Max has at times demonstrated that he can be a top notch player, however, if there is one thing that he has consistently shown, it’s his ability to be inconsistent. I just don’t feel like you can ever count on a particular level of production.

I think it would be great to sign a “#10/Break Glass in Case of Emergency” starter to store in St. Paul. I’m most interested in Dallas Keuchel, as he was very useful in that role last year, and Jake Odorizzi, as he is also a known guy. Do these guys have anything left in the tank? Well, for Keuchel, he probably hasn’t changed much in the last year. . . I completely agree that I’m not interested in an old retread starter to come in and be the “new” 5th starter on the team. I only want one of these guys around for emergency purposes.

I am very pleased that the Twins didn’t get rid of either Vazquez or Farmer for this year. I think they were more valuable than keeping Polanco and are more valuable than Kepler will likely be this year. Farmer an excellent defender who can replace a number of positions (even for more than a day or two if necessary) on the field. His bat is the right match for what the team needs as well and it will probably be better this year if he can avoid getting hit in the face (ouch!). Vazquez is also a very solid defensive player who had a bad offensive season. However, his 65 OPS+ last year was well above the Drew Butera level (48 OPS+ for a CAREER), plus the potential for a bounce back is there. Camargo is waiting in the wings, but I doubt we’ll see a year that only uses two catchers again any time soon. His day will come. Either of these two could be starters on many teams and having them as bench players is immensely valuable from a production standpoint, and from an experiential standpoint they have much to offer younger players.

I agree. However I think we all know that GM’s are certainly nuts. Hence the irrationality I referred to earlier.

I like Lee. I think he has a chance to be good. However, calling him a possible "generational talent" seems like an impossible bar for him to achieve and a recipe for fan disappointment. That's one of the things that led to people being critical of Joe Mauer, who was an exceptional player. You're not just calling him a star or even a hall of famer, but someone who will be one of the icons of the game, and that's too much. Remember, if he isn't absolutely dominating in the minors (i.e. video game numbers), he is pretty unlikely to do that in the majors.

The ranking of potential impact is more than likely directly tied to whoever gets an opportunity to spend the most time on the 26 man roster. None of these guys are likely to get a shot without an injury (or several) happening at Target Field. However, we all know that injuries happen (we just can't predict who, nor timing and severity) so someone is likely to get that opportunity and if they spend more than a week or two on the roster, will likely be pretty good. The roster itself is strong enough that it is unlikely anyone currently on the 26 man plays themselves out of a job so I think it will all be tied to potential injury (or possibly a trade). I do agree that the most likely (and largest) impact could come from Louis Varland. He seems likely to get opportunities and seems to have the skills to take advantage of them -- aka Bailey Ober last season.

Trade value is often driven by age/service time/controllability and what is perceived as the potential upside. It's what makes some of the pitchers the Twins want so difficult to get. They are projectable and controlable (i.e. cheap), making them very valuable in trade -- many of them (perhaps most) are actually less valuable (in trade talks) once they pitch a year or two and don't show the same upside. Many of them never recover that lost value. Lee and Julien are much the same. The more he looks like "can't miss" with no service time, the more valuable he becomes. It's why Julien (who has absolutely done more at a higher level), may or may not be more valuable in trade than Lee, as Julien has some service time. As I said in my post, there is plenty of irrationality in trade talks and values, but if you're trying to make a trade, you have to buy into it.

I am in agreement with you, however, the question could be whether the Twins would be better off parting with one of Julien/Lee in a trade for a starting pitcher, and that's a really tough one to answer. If you can pull off an Arraez/Lopez type trade it's a no brainer, but it could also be a Mahle trade, which would be terrible. If you keep them both, you could have Julien/Lee/Correa/Lewis, with Kirilloff as DH for the next four years or so, which is a pretty good group if they are all playing to capabilities.

With a solid beginning to the season in St. Paul, Lee's trade value will likely be at it's peak, so that would be the time to pull off a trade if that is the direction they go. The question is whether Julien's proven success has a higher value than the potential for success that Lee represents, and that is an answer that is TBD. Trade markets can be a little irrational, so it's not a sure thing one way or the other.

Easily the position on the team that STILL has the most depth. The platoon of Julien/Farmer is really good and Lee/Martin/Castro/Hellman in waiting is hardly a problem as well. If all of the positions on the team were like this one, we would go very, very far.

For their career prospects, both Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach need to impress every chance they get. Neither are making the opening day roster, but they really need to mash at AAA to prove they are healthy and talented enough to make an impact when called upon. In the bullpen, there will be a scramble for the last spot, but the core of the bullpen is very strong (Duran, Jax, Theilbar, Stewart) so instead of fretting about four spots, we're really solid in three of those four. I don't want to say it doesn't matter, but the eighth guy in the bullpen. . . . ? I'm most concerned about guys who aren't fighting for jobs. How healthy are Correa's feet? Can Buxton play CF on a consistent basis? Is Kirilloff THE guy at 1B or is he just A guy who plays some 1B? Can the sophomore class (Julien, Lewis, and Wallner) avoid a slump? Those are (some of) the things that will determine the Twins' success or failure this season.

Not much is less exciting than a tie. . . In a spring training game that doesn’t count. Glad they got their work in, but yikes. . .

Sorry if this is mostly cross-posted, but I think the information applies. There are plenty of things to like about this deal. Here is how I see the various factions of it. #1. The straight up trade of Miller for Doncon is probably OK in and of itself. Doncon is younger with more offensive upside. Miller may have an MLB glove but right now his bat is nowhere to be found. That may change, but it hasn't happened yet. Besides that, we don't need a SS for awhile, so having a younger prospect is more useful/valuable to us than having one closer to the majors. #2. Margot is a decent 4th outfielder. He's not someone to get excessively excited about, but he is a solid ball player. Definitely a step above Garlick, Cave, etc., and a good insurance policy that can play all three OF positions and hit enough to keep a job. #3. Prospect Blocking. Margo blocks Martin in the same way that DeSclafani blocks Varland. If we give Martin the job, we have no backup plan at AAA with upside. In the same way that there is value in having Varland in AAA, there is value in having Martin there. DeSclafani is the fifth starter because it allows them to keep both him and Varland (who will be at AAA). If Varland is the fifth starter they have nothing to do with DeSclafani. #4. Player Development. This move tells me that they weren't ready to give Martin a job and want him to have some additional healthy time in AAA. They don't want him playing twice a week coming off the bench for the Twins, but would rather he played nearly everyday in St. Paul. This is true if they see him as a future important piece or if they want to trade him midseason. IF he's ripping it up in St. Paul, his trade value could go up a lot. #5. Setting the floor. We've seen this move a lot of times. Margot's floor is higher (or more consistent) than Martin's. Even though Martin's ceiling is higher, he is less of a sure thing. #5. Midseason moves. Santana, DeSclafani, and Margot are easy trade-aways at the deadline IF you no longer need them and could be filler for a more substantial trade move for a starting pitcher. I also think that Margo will wind up with more WAR this season than MAT, and I like MAT but he’s not getting any younger. Your mileage may vary, but I think it's a decent move. You may not, and that’s OK too.

Thanks for the info. Nice concise summary of a complicated scenario. The technology and changes certainly can account from some of the skepticism from old, retired pitchers about today’s players. Change (and what they don’t understand well) can lead to that. I think you are right to question whether the lack of time off in the offseason is a good or bad thing. I get the benefits of not having to shake the rust off during spring training, but I also wonder if that time off to rest didn’t prolong the careers of many past pitchers in the league. It’s also hard to know whether the prevalence of TJ injuries/surgeries represents entirely new injuries or whether many of the career ending injuries of the past were actually the same but labeled as “dead arm” or “blown out arm”. There are always going to be outliers of guys who could pitch well in their old age (Neikro, Verlander, Ryan), but most don’t get there.

Boy, you don't look at the news for one day and the Twins make a trade! There are plenty of things to like about this deal. Here is how I see the various factions of it. #1. The straight up trade of Miller for Doncon is probably OK in and of itself. Doncon is younger with more offensive upside. Miller may have an MLB glove but right now his bat is nowhere to be found. That may change, but it hasn't happened yet. Besides that, we don't need a SS for awhile, so having a younger prospect is more useful/valuable to us than having one closer to the majors. #2. Margot is a decent 4th outfielder. He's not someone to get excessively excited about. Definitely a step above Garlick, Cave, etc., but a good insurance policy that can play all three OF positions and hit enough to keep a job. #3. Prospect Blocking. Margo blocks Martin in the same way that DeSclafani blocks Varland. If we give Martin the job, we have no backup plan at AAA with upside. In the same way that there is value in having Varland in AAA, there is value in having Martin there. DeSclafani is the fifth starter because it allows them to keep both him and Varland (who will be at AAA). If Varland is the fifth starter they have nothing to do with DeSclafani. #4. Player Development. This move tells me that they weren't ready to give Martin a job and want him to have some additional healthy time in AAA. They don't want him playing twice a week coming off the bench for the Twins, but would rather he played nearly everyday in St. Paul. This is true if they see him as a future important piece or if they want to trade him midseason. IF he's ripping it up in St. Paul, his trade value could go up a lot. #5. Setting the floor. We've seen this move a lot of times. Margot's floor is higher (or more consistent) than Martin's. Even though Martin's ceiling is higher, he is less of a sure thing. #5. Midseason moves. Santana, DeSclafani, and Margot are easy trade-aways at the deadline IF you no longer need them and could be filler for a more substantial trade move for a starting pitcher. Your mileage may vary, but I think it's a decent move.

I definitely agree with almost everything in this article, but it must be acknowledged that sometimes the biggest factor influencing team health is simply LUCK - good or bad or both. A great trainer will absolutely help to keep people in good shape health-wise, and will certainly help speed recovery, there are enough wildcard type injuries that can happen to really mess things up. Here's hoping for another fortunate year!

It’s not thrilling. It’s not sexy. But it sure is necessary. It’s a long season and if we want our pitchers to stay healthy and productive, getting them into this maintenance pattern is absolutely essential. Since this type of routine seems to be pretty universal among teams, I would be curious is there are any individual pitchers out there who do something radically different, just because that’s what they need/are used to doing. I also wonder how much/little this has changed from back in Bert Blyleven’s days with the team.