Rod Carews Birthday

“ Which player is the most critical building block? ” I think that the most critical building block is actually Correa. He has the kinds of baseball skills and leadership skills to make those around him better. There are other good players, but to me, he’s the only guy that is THE guy.

I probably read these two articles incorrectly. Not sure if this is a ranking of most likely to be traded (I can’t imagine that’s true) or a ranking of projected return from a trade (can’t see that either). I think that it’s some combination of both, or likely a “buncha” players that could be traded, who we think of as core players. I think “high” likelihood of trade on an individual basis would only be Paddack, Vasquez, and Castro. I think that the chances of Correa or Buxton being traded are close to zero. I think that all of these players are potential trade chips if you can trade something from a slight surplus for something that fills a need. Individually none are likely to be traded, but collectively, I would bet somebody gets traded.

I think this is pretty accurate. The parts that were directly in the trade didn’t do anything for anybody, with the caveat that it’s possible the Twins could gain a little something out of it yet. However, without the money saved there would likely have been no Carlos Santana, and I’m pretty certain life without Santana would have been even uglier than it was with him.

I think that in order to improve this team, some trades will need to be made and that means that we will need to trade someone that we would rather not. For a 6-10 list, this seems reasonable, but I’m anxious to see 1-5 as well. For me personally, Brooks Lee would be higher on my list of players to trade because I’m not convinced that he’s going to be as outstanding as some think he will be, and Matt Wallner would be lower because he’s the best true slugger that we have. I would rather not trade Ober, but for the right offer, I’m willing. Since Ober, Ryan, and Lopez all become free agents at the same time in a couple of years, moving one of them now to stagger that impact might be a good idea — particularly if we can fill another need by doing so. The pair of Jax and Duran. I think we definitely should trade one of them. Not sure who has the higher value. Jax had a career year last year while Duran had a bit of a down year, but Duran has the track record of being ridiculous. Having both is a nice luxury, but capitalizing on value now might help the team a bit more. Unfortunately, no one is going to give us a big haul for a relief pitcher, no matter how good they are, so we should be prepared to be disappointed for the return (which means that they may not be dealt after all). My 5-1 looks like this. . . Lopez AND Ryan occupying one spot at 5 (both medium, like Ober). Only one of the three would be dealt, but I think Lopez and Ryan are ever so slightly more likely than Ober. Next at 4 would be Julien AND Larnach (both high). They both have potential but might be the odd man out of the team’s plans. Return for either of these guys wouldn’t be huge. Number 3 is Vasquez (very high). They will try to trade him, but finding a team to pick up a lot of his salary will be difficult. This trade will only be made possible by another, bigger trade for a young catcher. At number 2 I have Paddack (boiling high) He can be a serviceable pitcher, but his price tag and the availability of young pitching makes him an easy trade candidate. I think Willi Castro (the hydrogen fusion heat of the sun) is the number 1 candidate to be traded, which makes me sad because I really like him. His return could be medium-ish, but with a player or prospect added, I think could bring a piece of at least some impact. These guys aren’t all going to be traded. My over-under number is 2.5 on this list. Who will be traded is all entwined with who else is traded and who is acquired. For example, if we make a “big” trade and get a catcher of the future, Vasquez is as good as gone. If we don’t, he’s probably back, even at that price tag. I think there are certainly prospects that could be traded for some good value as a part of a package.. Luke Keashall comes to mind, as would one of our lower level pitchers. If one of Hellman or Kiersay makes the team next spring, I think the other one will be dealt. I’m sure there are others that would be candidates as well. If my list frustrates you, remember that I’m the guy who wanted to trade Max Kepler for a bag of used baseballs in the summer of 2023 right before he got really hot. So. . . What do I know?

I believe you’ve pegged the off season well. I won’t like it, but I wonder if the easiest trade to make would be to trade Pablo Lopez. I don’t think I like it either, but Ober was essentially just as good last year and Ryan was maybe a little better but not as reliable due to injury — AND they don’t cost much. If my math is correct, all three are controlled for three more years, which means they all come up at once for free agency. IF you could trade Lopez for a young rotation piece that you like and/or a first baseman/catcher, you have freed up $20+M and maybe not weakened the team as much as you think, PLUS you have some money to spend in other areas. I know, it seems crazy, and I don’t really want to see it happen, but it might be the solution to both financial issues and to solidifying either the catcher position or first base. It just might make too much sense not to do it.

If you could make a trade for a starting level catcher for Luke Keashall as the centerpiece, I would grab that in a second. I think Keashall could become a fine player, but locking up the catcher situation — one we are generally not happy with — for the next few years would be amazing. I don’t know if the right answer is Rushing, Tell, Quero, or somebody else, but this would be well worth it. I think that every prospect below ERod, Jenkins, and Raya should definitely be on the table for trades, and I think you listen even on them (although I would need to be blown away to bite on one). On the major league side, Buxton and Correa aren’t going anywhere, but otherwise, I think you also listen. I would always be hesitant to trade starting pitching (like Ryan/Ober), but the right deal might change my mind. The Twins lineup is good enough that improving it will involve subtracting somebody that we may actually like.

This is indeed the right answer. Most of us could only hope to have Kiriloff's baseball career, and even though it didn't live up to MLB All-Star standards, he should be commended for it. It seems to be apparent that his back issues (or some other injury) are a driving factor in this, because if he were healthy, he would certainly be able to play next year somewhere, whether it were with the Twins or not. Hopefully, his back can recover enough to give him a normal life. Good luck and thanks, Alex!

I agree that Lee did OK in the field last year, but if he loses any more speed, it seems likely that it would affect him quickly and greatly on the defensive side of the ball. I come back to him being 23 and slow. That's an unusual combination for someone who isn't a hulking slugger. In the immediate term, I'm more concerned about his bat. Last year was kind of a loss, so he's got to get it going this year or he becomes just another average guy. Not sure what happened with Castro on the basepaths. In 2023, he was excellent and a real sparkplug on the bases, but in 2024 he seemingly couldn't make it happen at all. I'm guessing that the truth lies somewhere in between, but that's pretty weird.

The Wallner number is a little scary but let’s hope he can eliminate some strikeouts to not need such a gaudy ball batted in play number. The one that really scares me though is Brooks Lee in the 13th percentile for sprint speed. It is to be expected for catchers (Vasquez) or really old guys (Santana), but not for YOUNG infielders. And here’s my big concern. If that’s his speed now, what does it look like five years from now or when he’s 33 or 34? It seems unlikely that he gets faster as he ages. Is there anyone his age currently in the league that’s slower?

This article gets me excited about he potential future of the team. I really hope ERod comes through and becomes the kind of excellent hitter he has been in the minors. Our track record lately has been a little spotty. If he's hot in spring training, I say keep him in the lineup somehow -- you can always move Larnach, et al to DH to make it work. If he isn't awesome in the spring, send him to AAA. I think the important part is that the team does what is best of HIS development so that he can become the star that we are all hoping he becomes. I don't want to stall his development by keeping at St. Paul, but I don't want to rush him to the majors before he's ready. The timetable is for him in the long term, not for a little instant gratification for the Twins and fans.

EXACTLY

You are absolutely correct. We can all control our own reading. My argument is with the tone of the article - establishing a sense of urgency under demonstrably false pretenses. It is also that Twins Daily maintains a solid group of writers -- some I like much more or much less than others (and that's OK and normal) -- and I expect quality writing from the collective group and not just clickbait. That's why I called it out in what was intended to be a humorous fashion. Clickbait is for trying to lure readers on the general internet or social media by making people say "OMG, I have to see this!" I would argue that it is not for a site such as this where an established base of readers wants high quality information. That's why I signed up and I'm sure many others did as well. I would call it constructive feedback.

I hate to pile on, but. . . Stay tuned! Next we have an article that asks this question. . . . Is Kirby Pucket really one of the top 25 MN Twins in history? OR Was Rod Carew actually a good hitter?

Actually I would. I think the odds of Yunior Severino being a serviceable slugging type first baseman are probably only about 20%. However, I think the odds of Kiriloff being a full-time productive player are less than that. MAYBE Kiriloff IF HEALTHY ENOUGH TO PERFORM has a chance of being better than that, but at this point I'm just playing what I believe the percentages to be. In reality I think first base will be covered by some combination of Julien and Miranda. The defense won't be amazing, but I think that they will both eventually hit and be healthy enough to perform. OR, I could be completely wrong! In reference to your edit. . . even without the edit, I think that there are better options out there for the 40 man than Kiriloff (maybe some that we haven't traded for yet). Having space certainly increases your flexibility for trades/rule 5 pickups/waiver claims/free agents (cheap ones), and I like that.

I believe this is the key. To me, Kiriloff is the next guy to remove from the 40-man on the position player side of things. We have too many players that are very similar and to me, he is the one that looks to be least likely to succeed. It's not that he's not talented, but it's that he doesn't seem likely to be able to realize that talent at the major league level. I think he looks like a 5% chance of success vs. 50% chance of complete failure vs. 45% chance of slogging along at the same level, which is also probably failure, plus we lose the opportunity to figure out some of the other players on the roster, like Julien and Miranda et al.

These three players certainly have the potential of being good major leaguers, but let's tap the brakes a little bit. Let them prove it at AAA a while before we get greedy. If all of those sure fire stars and MVP candidates would actually come though, I'm happy to admit I'm wrong. A little more time in St. Paul won't hurt any of them (in fact some of them haven't even played there yet). At this point, I'm still waiting for last year's can't miss impact prospects to have that aforementioned impact. It isn't popular to say this, but we really don't know yet what we have in Lee, Lewis, and Julian. They might put it together and still be excellent, or they might not, and trend lines and injury issues are mixed. I THINK Wallner seems to be coming of age, but I'm also still not sure what to think about Larnach and Miranda who trend up a little, then down a little.

Carew wasn't an awesome defender. He wasn't a butcher, but there were no gold gloves to be had. He was definitely better at 1st than at 2nd. I'm in agreement on Julien. He needs "something". I just am not sure what it is. The talent is there but he seems to have forgotten how to do anything with it. Some sort of mental re-set seems to be in order.

Not sure, but that's probably the kind of trade that could be done to work this out. Personally, I'm in the keep Ryan camp, but I could trade Lee.

If the Twins can fix the rest of the offense, then carrying a guy that doesn't hit well at catcher is acceptable. He provides a lot defensively and probably does quite a bit to help those young pitchers. That is actually quite a lot. IF they had someone to replace him, then I'm all over trading him for salary relief. However, that guy doesn't exist in the organization yet. Perhaps another trade could fix that.

Hard to say. I'm not convinced yet, but he has certainly earned another chance to show us more. He definitely gets the award for best use of eye-black, hands down.

Was his fielding OK when he had a 130 OPS+? At that OPS+, he's not likely to be a net negative. Nobody's defense is that bad. Well, at least it wasn't this bad. . . . That guy was terrible. . . .

Every single player should be for sale every year. . . but only for the right price. I'm not sure if dealing Miranda is a good or bad idea in a vacuum, because in a vacuum we don't know what the return will be. I would deal him (in a package probably) in a second for a front line starting pitcher with some control, or for a big powerhitter that plays great defense. However, dealing him for an A ball flyer or a mediocre relief pitcher is a non-starter for me. I don't think there is anyone who is truly untouchable after the season the Twins had collectively, but I also think it is foolish to have a fire sale for no reason at all. That's how you become the White Sox. It's easy to say, "Maybe we should" or "Maybe we shouldn't". What I would like to see is an article with some specific comps around the league that have a similar value, along with some actual proposals for said deals. I know we don't know who is willing to deal, but it's really no more speculative than an article like this.

So, if I interpret you correctly, the player that was playing much improved (over last year) defense for the first couple of months this season, who is also the player that had an OPS+ of 130 last year, isn't worth developing at all? That seems unusually harsh. Not every player development is linear. It's pretty common to have a dip after a solid debut (the so-called sophomore slump). I would agree with @JD-TWINS in that the problem seems to be at least as much mental as physical for Julien and that he may be outstanding if he can figure that out. He may not work out, as may many players not work out, but I think he is certainly worth giving another chance or two to unlock what he can do. By the way, you know who else wasn't a good second baseman, particularly when he was young? Rod Carew. No, I'm not comparing the two of them as complete players, but defensively they are more similar than alike. The solution ultimately was to move Carew over to first base, where he graded out better. Maybe that's in Julien's future as well.

So other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?

I hate the idea of trading either of these two guys, but it would likely be the best way to get a pretty serious return in trade. Whether that makes the team better depends on how well those young starters can take over the rotation spots. The fact that Lopez, Ober, and Ryan all become free agents at the same time is probably reason enough to do something about it, but I feel like we've tried for so long to have a decent rotation that trading one away would be very disappointing.