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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    Certainly anyone can be traded for the right value, but what would that value be? If I'm sending away a solid MLB #2/3, I want back a prospect pitcher who projects that well as a starting point. Then, I want a hitter who will make a real impact on this lineup OR a starting level catcher that would make Vasquez expendable. Do I think it is likely that anyone offers those things? Nope, and that's why you keep Ober.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    I agree with the need to make some switches, but when Sands and Jax were in the rotation, the Twins were DESPERATE for any good starting pitcher. Luckily the times seem to have changed.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    Nope. Trading a star player for prospects is something you do when out of contention at the deadline, not something you do over the winter. That being said, I would need much more in return for three years of Lopez.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    Big fan of Willi Castro, but he's probably a luxury that the Twins cannot afford to have on the payroll. Not having him around makes Baldelli's job a little more difficult when the inevitable injuries happen, but much of his production can and will be replaced by the smaller efforts of other players. Losing Castro is a negative, but I think the Twins will survive just fine. The real question I have is what he is actually worth in a trade. So, assuming that the Twins pick up none of his salary, can we get a team's # 8 and #12 prospects, or is that too much to ask? I don't think anyone will give us a top 5 prospect but if we can get two other prospects, the trade looks pretty good to me. Or, if that doesn't work, does somebody have an extra major league first baseman or functional catcher lying around to trade?
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think he has more value to the back of our bullpen than he does as a trade candidate. Could he start? Perhaps, but there are more relievers who tried starting and failed than those who succeed. Again, he is too valuable to mess around with. Keep him where he is and we will likely be very happy.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    Don't you think he's being showcased in the Arizona Fall League in hopes that some team is impressed by his hitting? I do. IF there is a trade that involves prospects, I would be that he would be one of the guys moved.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    THIS. And Hunter's years of less than 100 games were 99 and 98. Hunter was basically always healthy. The comparison really ends there. He had a very long productive career and wound up with 50 WAR. That doesn't quite put him in the HOF, but he certainly is in the hall of very good. Although Buxton is halfway there, I would put my money on the under for him. Even though his rate stats are good, I just can't imagine him staying healthy for enough games to accumulate those kinds of stats. Much of Buxton's value as a player comes from his ability to play plus defense in CF. Moving him to the corners makes him less valuable by definition, AND his offensive numbers don't hold up as well in those spots. Hunter was an unusual player in that he was a better hitter from age 31 to 36 than he was from 25 to 30. That made his offensive numbers hold up well in the corner spot even though he didn't move to the corner until fairly late in his career.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    Upon reading this article, I was drawn to looking up each of these past players' debut seasons (and career). It was decidedly a mixed bag as some went on to more good years and others flamed out quickly. One player who I think we certainly under-appreciate is Denard Span. His first two years were really excellent and his overall career numbers are solid as well. Back to this article, it strikes me that any of these players could make an impact, albeit in very different ways. The easiest to see would be ERod, as any amount of ineffectiveness or injury would open a spot for him to come in and shine. I'm not sure what to make of Keaschall. He seems very promising but I think there are probably too many guys in the way who are likely to get their chances to succeed or fail before he gets there. The two pitchers are talented, but unless they go to the bullpen, I would be hard pressed to see them in the rotation unless something went horribly wrong with our pitching staff. I think the most likely outcomes for this year would be ERod getting his shot and Prielipp coming up through the bullpen. The others probably need to wait. On the other hand, Zebby Matthews, who while not officially a rookie, could really break out if given an opportunity this year. I'm anxious for the new season already!
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    So you’re saying there’s a chance!
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Wow! NO. I can't fathom giving up much for a light hitting, good fielding backup outfielder. Certainly not a starting pitcher. I would send Randy Dobnak, but that's about it.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Why is it that we have seemingly cast aside any hope of Julien becoming a big league regular? He had a terrible year last year, but was outstanding the year before with the bat. In fact, his career numbers are still better than most of those who are being counted on. What exactly has Lee done to give us confidence that he will be a big league regular? Lewis can’t stay on the field. Keaschall looks like a good minor leaguer right now with a solid future, but we don’t really know that either. I’ve said this before on here — an 850 OPS will excuse every fielding problem that we think he has. I wouldn’t bet against him getting that if he gets the time on the field.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    If he’s an excellent bat, no one will care if he’s not a great defender. An 850 OPS will overcome a lot of doubts, and he could be capable of that if he figures things back out.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Since Lee seemingly had a freshman slump, how bad would he have to be to have a sophomore slump?
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    So instead of a "throw the bums out" election, this was a "throw the bums in" election!
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don't necessarily quibble with the metric chosen, although more data could have been important and enlightening. However, I think a comprehensive listing of Twins MVPs would have been in order for this article along with a title (less click-baity for sure) like "How Do Recent Twins MVPs Stack Up Against Twins All-time MVPs". By the title of the article you imply that Willi Castro must suck because he is "among the worst", when in fact, he played very well, was very valuable, and the team was lucky to have him. That does him a disservice. Others, on the other hand, underachieved at an extreme rate, which is why someone with lower level stats is the MVP. Not calling this to attention moves the blame from poorly performing players to someone who performed well.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that yoga is a fantastic idea, but not ONLY yoga (or not forever yoga). Changing it up is pretty important. The difficulty with the non-stop training in specific areas is that it builds up very specific muscles, allowing others to atrophy and throwing it all out of balance. Lack of flexibility is also a huge problem. When kids play whatever sport is in season, it is really good cross-training, even though they don't know it.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    Well. . . at least we're not the White Sox!
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I've long been a believer that managers get way too much credit and way too much blame for what they accomplish with their team. I think this article reinforces that opinion for me. Team success has much more to do with success (and failure, and injury) of individual players than it has to do with which buttons the manager happens to press. That doesn't mean there are no bad managerial decisions. However, the "good" decisions tend to be balanced by the "bad" decisions, and vice versa, with the whole group of decisions tending to result in something near zero. In 2019, Rocco Baldelli was a "genius" and this year he was an "idiot". Neither of these are true but yet we, as fans, choose to look at it that way. Recently the Guardians replaced their "legendary" "genius" manager and the new guy took them to unexpected heights this season. What does that say? I'm also not sure that all of those base running results are really about the manager. If Rocco were managing Ricky Henderson, all of those metrics would look better, but the Twins aren't built that way. An article this past week pointed out that the Twins don't bunt because they aren't suited to bunt as individual players - that one definitely passes both the eye test and the foot speed test. Don't misunderstand my skepticism of metrics for managers, it is a worthy pursuit, but much of the evidence of success or failure will end up being anecdotal. Did decision A apparently lead to outcome B and was that a good or a bad thing? What is the clubhouse atmosphere? Does the manager tend to put players into situations in which they can succeed? No numbers. No statistics. Equally important (perhaps more important) to the evaluation.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    We can HOPE that it will make a difference, but there are certainly no guarantees. I've been disappointed often enough that a solid 1/2 season sounds like a good deal to me. A "perfectly healthy" Byron Buxton could get hurt swinging at the first pitch on opening day next year. That being said, I would rather have him going into the offseason healthy than recovering from surgery. Byron. . . no skydiving, no snowboarding, and no bull riding this winter!
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    Some of these guys could be helpful, but I worry that we are overreacting to this past season’s team. Yes, there were certainly times when some additional team speed would have been good to have, but if the hitters hit, there is much less problem with that. I’m supportive of more team speed but I don’t just want to go out there to get guys who “battle their tails off” but can’t actually hit.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is a solid idea if you feel good enough about your cadre of starters to make it happen. The other thing is that this can be a floating target a little. The team could start on a six man rotation schedule, then if someone needs a couple of starts off for minor injury, etc, you flip back to five. Then, when the starters are available again, you can flip back up to six.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    No huge surprises. I was hoping Severino could put it together and become a power hitter, but it looks like that’s not going to happen.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    Count me as a person who is on the fence about Brooks Lee's future. I don't think that he is going to wash out and be out of the league, but I'm not sure he is destined for stardom either. This year, to me, is his prove-it year. Up until now he hasn't even close to lived up to the image the hype machine created for him. For many teams, with a normal payroll, signing him to the contract you outline above would be a chance worth taking, as that is only the kind of money that you would pay someone who is just "decent", plus having an option for some additional years is nice. But for the Twins, on the limited budget that they often have, long-term money isn't a great thing to add to the bottom line. I THINK he will be at least OK, but I definitely don't know that. I know that this is a ridiculous comparison (apples to Buicks?), but the Dobnak contract seemed like a good idea at the time and now we would really like that measly $3M back for this year's payroll.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    It wouldn't shock me if Miranda wound up being a decent first baseman defensively, while hitting reasonably enough to keep the job. However, it also wouldn't shock me the other way and he washes out. He's a very strange player. He has enough of a track record that we should be able to project him better, but that track record was so inconsistent and injury affected that we can't really do that. For me, I'm ok with him as plan A at 1B. I also think that is where Julien winds up as well. They are both as athletic as Arraez, who we were comfortable using there (perhaps only while he was a batting title contender though). I could see a platoon between the two or perhaps a little more equal time share, like we do with our catching tandem.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    FANTASTIC! This was a signing that was greeted with skepticism by many. It turns out that Santana had a lot left in the tank. Way to go! I wonder what it would take to re-sign him? I hate playing against Father Time, but it might be worth a shot.
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