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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    It is indeed a classic look! It also looks to be in the best shape of it's life!
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    This seems like a welcome development. If his curveball can be dialed up like his fastball has been in the pen, he could really be a terrific reliever. I think we all need to pause and take stock of the fact that a guy like Varland will likely be on the outside looking in (at least temporarily) when the final bullpen group is announced. In many (most? . . . all?) previous years, we would be asking Varland to quickly develop some pitches so that he could be our #2 or #3 guy out of the bullpen. What's fun is that he might become that guy but what's even more fun is that we don't desperately need him to be that guy on day one. With good health, this should be quite a fine group.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    While you always want your team to be #1 at every position possible, middle of the road is an OK place to be if it works in the scheme of the rest of your team. That makes me comfortable with this year's catching situation. Cartaya and Camargo may or may not be the future of catching with the Twins, but we will learn a lot in the next few months of play. As the third option, I think they are fine for now, and I hope they develop further. The catching situation after this year definitely needs to be addressed, but I don't see any reason to panic about it. Yes, we should probably draft a catcher, but that only helps for a few years down the road. This is something that could likely be addressed in trade or by taking a band aid approach in free agency. Yes, they are on the clock to find the next solution, but that clock isn't really that close to zero that panic needs to ensue.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    Wait! You mean if I get rid of my 1987 Yugo I can hit my way back to the majors instead of independent ball???? Time to go shopping!
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    I would agree with this entirely. We as fans don't really know all of the things that are going on inside the clubhouse and who people really look up to. People require different types of leadership. For some, the best leaders are fiery and public, but others respond better to the good friend or the quiet approach. We also only know the outside things that are public, and sometimes, that's probably best. I do agree that Buxton has the accomplishments, seems like a good guy, and has seemingly bonded well with CC, which would certainly speak well to his potential as a leader. I would be curious what the crossover is in leadership between the hitters and pitchers, or if they pretty much operate in their own worlds.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    Fun article and a good reminder of why we are fans to begin with. Go Twins! Let's win some games!
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that the Julien renaissance probably looks like something a little bit south of his rookie season offensively, but likely north of it defensively. As has been written about by many, he needs a change in approach to adjust to the major league pitchers' adjustment to him. I think that's doable. It's not like he hasn't hit in the past at every level, as well as (briefly) at the majors. His "passivity" at the plate frustrates many a fan, but would you rather have a Max Kepler weak pop up or weak ground out? The strikeouts and the weak contact are both outs and neither are going to do anything for the scoring situation, and yet we scholarshipped Kepler for years. For Julien, a little more aggressiveness early in the count might lead to more of the 131 OPS+ player that we saw in 2023. I would be very pleased with a solid hitter at the 115-120 OPS+ level. If you assume that his defense is never going to improve (except it did) then he is destined only for the land of the DH, but I would maintain that the improvement that we saw for a while at the beginning of last season (before he turned into a real mess everywhere) is probably more indicative for what we can expect. If you've already made up your mind about his defense, there are plenty of other productive players in Twins history that you would have missed out on. The combination of a near .800 OPS hitter with a near average defender would certainly play. Now if he can just get back there!
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it is in order, because what we are expecting of him is so much greater than Julien. For the most part people have Lewis’ name written in the lineup in pen and are expecting him to be one of the top offensive forces on the team. That means his success or failure have much larger consequences for the team’s outlook overall. So, while we may think his floor is higher than Julien’s at this point (maybe), but if he is sitting on his floor the Twins are in trouble.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    It does seem like this is probably the year for Julien to either do it or not. My money is on him to put it back together and play well. I don’t think he’s going to be a big slugger or defensive wizard, but in his best form he has enough power to be very valuable and enough glove to hold his own at second base. Because of the number of players available at second and first, I’m not excessively concerned about him putting it together (or not). I think the position will get covered, even if it gets a little messy in the short term. I’m actually at least as concerned about Royce Lewis at third base. Between injuries and fatigue, he was a pretty big mess last year and we are not expecting him to be merely the good version of Eddie Julien, we’re expecting him to be a star and a vital cog in the offense and defense. The let down for the team is much more serious if Lewis crashes and burns than if Eddie Julien does. Both of them on the upswing will really help this team offensively.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Maybe, but I don’t think it’s that cut and dried. Correa will obviously be fine. Lewis has throwing issues but he’s young and athletic and I think will figure it back out. He looked fine there initially before his problems developed. Second base is a little messy — but it has been messy for a while. Castro would be fine for sure. I think Lee’s glove will play well there, even if his bat isn’t there yet. The drop off from a gold glover in Santana to France/Miranda/Julien will be noticeable, but again, I think the relatively inexperienced Miranda/Julien and the no longer injured France have the potential to be average. Julien/Miranda look to me like they will play a lot of DH anyway. In summary, if everyone plays their worst, they will be terrible. But, if everyone plays to potential, they will have an approximately average infield defense. It’s not a slam dunk but it’s not the end of the world either. If we can live up to potential scoring runs, it won’t be a problem. If we can’t score runs, the defense won’t matter.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Agreed. I remembered his offensive game going poorly, but those really were brutal numbers. I wonder if he would be better off making adjustments in St. Paul, where the pitching is less scary and the pressure is less. It’s easier to do that when you’re not facing guys like Tarik Skubal.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    Perhaps the cure for this is also “more cowbell” (la sonaille?).
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it’s a combination of knowing they needed to add a little bit to ensure that the team remain competitive, both for fans and for ownership sale marketing purposes, and an optimistic awareness that the sale might bail them out of paying the bills before they are all due.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    Fascinating read! I don’t know that it helps fans much to know the specifics of this, but it certainly illuminates some of the high level analytics that teams, coaches, and players have at their fingertips. Back in the day, managers would only have the eye test to say “well I think that’s a pretty fast swing,” which is nothing if not biased and a wild guess filled exercise. And this is just the tip of the iceberg!
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    There is also the "battle" at first base. Miranda would seem to have earned it, with Julien thrown in there as well. However, the Twins have signed several first base options in the off season to seemingly create a competition -- Ty France being the latest (and likely best). IF Lee takes over second base (a big if at this point), that leaves one of Julien/Miranda/possibly France as the potential DH (with certainly much more rotation unless someone is just burning it up). I happen to think that any of the three will be able to hit, (with Julien still a little bit of a question mark). It probably boils down to which one can play a respectable first base defensively.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    Agreed. Nathan to me is the real candidate among the three. He was dominant for a pretty long time and compares very favorably to HOF relievers. Loved Hunter, but while he was exciting in many ways for a long time, just didn’t have the really big peak years that position players need for selection. Santana just didn’t have a long enough career. Even a couple more seasons that were just “good” might have done the trick. I think EVENTUALLY Nathan may get in through the eras committees. Let’s hope it doesn’t take as long as it did for Olivia and Kaat.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's not quite that simple. The bulk of any projection is based on what MANY members of your team will accomplish. So, even though it is unlikely (at best) that Gasper will replace Santana's output, it is likely that some or all of that will be made up for elsewhere. I think one of the reasons for the somewhat optimistic projection is that almost no Twins hitter had a high quality offensive season AND a relatively healthy season (played a lot of games) at the same time. Buxton and Correa were pretty good, but they didn't play that many games. Will they play more games while keeping their rate stats similar? Possibly, maybe even probably. However, the amount of potential growth to come from guys like Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Miranda is pretty substantial, which accounts for the likely loss of impact at 1B. I would personally take the over on whether at least 3 of the 4 will have a better 2025 than 2024 and that's without factoring any potential rookie contributions which likely also move the bar forward. YMMV.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    While there are certainly a few more complicated interactions than those listed, this article does a great job of boiling down individual player needs/goals for each to have a good year. In fact, I have a hard time mustering much of an argument against any of the points. The success or failure of the team will be dependent on how many of these players make these strides. If it is 25%, it will be good for those players, but it won’t matter much and the team will be pretty bad. If it is 75%, there will be much joy in Mudville and the team will be exceptional. 100% is unachievable, but it’s nice to dream.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    Rah rah and style is fine if you have the other two. It just doesn't work alone, and my fear is that the team becomes obsessed with the rah rah and forgets the important stuff.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    I guess, but I think the article was just arguing that making a splashy move was as important as making the right move. I disagree with that. Making moves to make moves is just churn, which usually doesn't result in anything gained -- it's style over substance. Having spent 35 years teaching an elective area to H.S. students, I learned long ago that a program of high quality and deep substance will outdraw and out achieve one based on rah rah and style. Indeed, times may be changing but quality never goes out of style.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    If you can effectively identify the right pitchers to take from the HS level, it’s fantastic, because you can get a player before someone else has a chance to grab them. On the other hand, focusing on college age pitchers means that you are depending on them developing in college, which may or may not happen, or that they can be damaged goods once you get them (i.e. Rice). One benefit of grabbing college level hurlers in the draft, however, is that they can (usually) get to the majors faster after you draft them.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    I wouldn’t trade the pair for any other, unless I could cherry pick two other specific ones off of the top 10 list. We’re pretty lucky to have them, and as discussed here and elsewhere is what makes the bullpen elite. Our projected #3 guy, Sands, would likely be number two on most teams and an unfortunate #1 on others. Forcing good relievers like that down in the pecking order makes a ton of difference. By the end of the season, I expect to see Varland in a solid role in the pen as well. The wild cards at this point are Paddack — will he be here, will he be starting? — and Stewart — can we keep him healthy? As usual, a lot of noise is made about the innings from our starters. Absolutely, it is important for starters to go as deep as they effectively can in order to not work the pen. However, the Twins’ innings from starters is well above average (I believe #2 in the league in 2023) so wanting more innings is more of a want than an actual deficiency compared to the rest of the league. I like the starters. I like the bullpen. If this team can hit a little, I like our chances!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it's important to spend some money on bullpen arms if you don't have enough good bullpen arms. Right now, I think the Twins are in a pretty good spot -- it's one of the reasons I'm glad Jax is staying in the pen. Certainly every good bullpen is just an injury or two away from mediocrity, but I think that any extra money they find under their pillow would be better spent on a bat somewhere. So. . . yes, I believe their bullpen philosophy is justified -- at least with this current group of players.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    It is pretty difficult to refute that the Twins haven't made a lot of amazing last minute additions to the team by waiting out the market in the past few years, but I would argue that no one else has either - at least not while shopping in the same budget range as the Twins. They have had a few successes though, so I suppose they have played that game about as well as anybody else has. If the Twins had the budget to go after higher levels of free agents or be more willing to take on larger salaries, it would be much simpler to acquire players of impact for the team. However, given their current situation, I really doubt that the reason for their lack of success is a lack of strategic timing. It's $$$.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    Rankings by their nature are pretty subjective unless you establish objective criteria -- trade value, value to future of team, ultimate career value, WAR, this year vs. future vs. career, etc. That being said, it's a fun exercise. For me, there are two misplaced people on the list. I think SWR should be higher on the list -- he's done it well at the MLB level for most of a season and that is worth a lot. I think Brooks Lee should be lower on the list -- he needs to prove he can hit. After a flashy start with the bat, he was pretty much terrible, looking confused and lost before making enough contact to ground out to the infield. I think it is also worth noting that these two players really moved in opposite directions in the past year. SWR was being written off by many and now has climbed in peoples opinions, while Brooks Lee was the "surefire rookie of the year" candidate who now doesn't look very shiny. I hope SWR can keep it going and I hope Lee can recover.
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