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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, "veterans" are part of the reason the Twins might trail our contemporaries in the youth movement. On the position player side, we've got a below-average 40 year old starting, plus a below-average 32 year old locked up for more seasons -- Cubs and Astros don't have any starters over 31, much less bad ones. On the pitching side, we're a bit closer in age but lacking in quality. 30+ year old relievers aren't necessarily a bad thing to have on any club, but only if they're actually good.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I was using the current 25-man roster as a guide, which is why I noted how many current 25 years olds would drop out of the count next year. Still not sure where you came up with 2 and 4 for the Astros and Cubs next year, respectively. Both should have 5 based on their current 25-man roster (including DL and the two pitchers optioned for innings control) and 2016 season ages at B-Ref. Twins will have 2 as of now (3 if you count Buxton).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, since he was optioned today, Buxton can't be recalled for 10 days unless someone in MLB gets injured. So we can't, for example, cut bait on a reliever a week from today and bring up Buxton. It would interesting to hear from someone why they chose to end the rehab assignment quickly and option him, rather than just keep him on rehab longer. Seems like it's not in anybody's best interest -- Buxton loses service time now, and the Twins risk losing an option year on Buxton if he stays down there 20 more days in 2015. I guess if he gets injured again now, he would go on the AAA disabled list and not accrue service time for the remainder of 2015. But 2015 MLB service time is mostly irrelevant for Buxton now anyway, since he was recalled after the supposed "super 2" arbitration eligibility date.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    John Manuel of Baseball America said he would have ranked Buxton #2 at midseason if he was still eligible for the list. That was after his debut struggles and injury. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects-chat/ He's probably slipped a tiny bit (BA's midseason #1 was Corey Seager, who jumped from #5 preseason), but no way would he be out of anyone's top 10 at this point. 39 PA's just can't have that much of an effect. (Now, if the injury proves more severe, or he continues struggling at AAA/MLB, that could shift him down further. But at the moment, I think it's still safe to consider him the #2 prospect.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    They could easily and justifiably bench one of Hunter or Mauer every day. Roughly speaking. Sano could get 50% of starts at DH, 50% at 1B, Mauer the other 50% at 1B, and Hunter the other 50% at DH. Outfield spot open! Not that I mind Buxton getting some AAA reps especially as he works his way back from injury, although I would have kept him on rehab longer rather than optioning him, and long ago called up another OF who could be part of the future (Arcia) to see some action in that open outfield spot.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Arcia was optioned to AAA from the DL each of the last two seasons. In May 2014, he was recalled ~11 days after the option, so he didn't burn an option year (which requires 20 or more days on "optional assigment" in the minor leagues). After his May 2015 option, obviously Arcia hasn't been recalled yet. So by optioning Buxton now, we have to recall him before August 30th to avoid burning an option year on him in 2015. Seems like we could have left him on his MLB rehab stint longer, which wouldn't have counted towards days on optional assignment. (Hopefully option years don't matter for him, but he is young and who knows what the future may hold.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    By B-Ref, Astros and Cubs each have 8 such players (under 26) right now, if you count McCullers and Velasquez who both got optioned to control their innings. 3 on each team are 25 so would leave the group next year. Twins are a little behind. They have 6 right now if you count Buxton on the DL, with three 25 year olds.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Texas tied us on Wednesday, and took a half-game lead on us Thursday, before we reclaimed a half-game lead on them last night.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    All those guys (except Alvarez I think, who I already noted) were already on the 40-man roster, or had recently been on the 40-man (maybe DFAs?), or in the case of Speigner, was on another team's 40-man (he was a rule 5 pick).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    John, how exactly is #2 true? Robinson is overall a worse hitter than Hicks and Dozier, true, but he's not pitcher- or even Fryer-level bad, that you just hope he can advance the runners with an out rather than K'ing or bouncing the ball back to the pitcher. The likelihood of getting a base hit is about the same with Robinson as Hunter and Dozier (admittedly not for extra bases, but once you sac bunt you're not looking for extra bases anyway). And how likely is #1 to be true? Robinson has zero career bunt hits, and zero career sac bunts before this season. Donaldson and Hawkins were prepared for the bunt, and even the announcers were expecting it.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. But St Louis non-pitchers batting 7-9 had 21 sac bunts during Robinson's two main years there. Peter Bourjos (Robinson's effective replacement in St. Louis) is 6-for-12 in sac bunt attempts in just a season and a half. Pete Kozma has been deployed similarly this season, and has 4 sac bunt attempts. And as I added in another post, Robinson has zero career bunt hits. I think some posters were taking it for granted that Robinson should be able to bunt -- he certainly didn't look good doing it last night.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Roughly speaking, Shane Robinson has a 30% chance of reaching base safely in that PA, and a 25% chance of a base hit, the latter being basically the same as Hunter or Dozier (or probably Hicks, for that matter). Telling him to bunt reduces that to virtually 0%, considering that the Jays were playing for the bunt, have a great defensive 3B, and that Robinson's record suggests he is not an especially good/experienced bunter (frankly, given his attempts at bunting, they are lucky the runners advanced). That's HUGE. Also, look at the pitching situation. Hawkins had thrown 8 pitches that inning, and Escobar and Nunez had made contact on all 6 they had swung at so far, with a called strike and a very close ball. He's going to be around the zone because he doesn't want to fall behind or walk the #9 hitter there. That's an opportunity to send the runners, avoid the DP, and let Robinson put the ball in play. NOT give up an out. I guarantee that Toronto was happy we bunted there.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Washington guaranteed the option year, but also had to promise him the exclusive closer's job for him to approve the deal.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    And if Oswaldo Arcia was a good defensive second baseman and a plus baserunner, he'd be a hell of a player. Is this really that hard to understand?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Houston hasn't been .500 since April 19th. They haven't been fewer than 7 games above .500 since April either.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I agree. And I mentioned it somewhere above. Kepler should be in AAA already, so that skipping a level isn't an issue.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, that's not an absurdly high BABIP, and Kepler's good performance extends well beyond his slash line. He's walking almost as much as he's striking out, for instance. Drop his BABIP 40 points if you want, but what does that do? Takes away 8 hits, mostly singles?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. If we win, we apparently didn't need the help. But if we lose, any moves wouldn't have helped enough anyway. The maddening thing is that we're generally not getting blown out either. Our starting pitching (where no one was recommending external moves) has been acceptable (Duffey excepted). An extra bat or arm in the pen (several of which were available for non-top prospects) could have made a HUGE difference in multiple games recently.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Why is "do something once they got there" suddenly the standard, when it never was for the 2001-2011 Twins? Especially since the playoffs have since expanded. I'm not sure it's the trade deadline approach for the vast majority of contending MLB teams either. (Also, an aside: Cap'n Piranha, you were ultimately correct that Papelbon was traded for meager return, although it was probably more about his no-trade clause and closer demands than anything else. Would you have endorsed the Twins acquiring him cheaply, and moving Perkins out of the closer spot?)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above. I thought I made it clear the context of how I see them as similar. It's about similar development paths, NOT the kind of hitters/players they are.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Kepler's SLG is largely driven by his high batting average and doubles/triples. His HR rate is lower than Hicks' at AA at the same age. I don't think they are particularly similar as players, but I think they are similar in that neither has shown either the dominance of Sano or the consistency of young Mauer that would suggest skipping AAA is a good idea. They can both still be very good MLB players, but don't strike me as the kind that can be rushed.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if you see my B-Ref link above, Robinson has ZERO bunt hits for his MLB career, and had zero successful sac bunts prior to this season. I am not sure he's even a good bunter, even though he's the type of player you would expect/hope to be. He certainly didn't look good bunting last night, pulling the bat back on a down-the-middle strike, then bunting a pitch level with his head up in the air. Maybe it wasn't "awful" in that it didn't end the game, but I can't endorse that bunt call at all.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Robinson and Hunter are about equally likely to get a base hit in that situation, and also have similar probabilities of a DP (Robinson hits more balls on the ground, but is faster). Obviously Robinson doesn't have the XBH potential to tie the game in that at-bat, but he seems to have very similar likelihood of runner advancement if you let him swing away: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinsh01-bat.shtml#batting_situational::none http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01-bat.shtml#batting_situational::none Like I mentioned above, you might get some benefit from Robinson being a threat to bunt too, that Hunter would not get. I doubt Donaldson confers with Hawkins if Hunter is walking up to the plate. Also, if Hunter were to PH and reach, there would be no one to pinch-run for him (his run isn't that important, obviously, and it would be great if he reached, but he would become a DP liability on the bases).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins weren't fully committed to Arcia and Vargas (and their 2015 handling suggests they were not), they could have done worse than keeping Colabello around. Could have kept him instead of one of those relievers that we refuse to call up. That said, I don't think his injury was that huge of a factor in 2014, and his 2015 success could probably have only been achieved in Toronto. (I am starting to think *I* could manage an above-average OPS+ there somehow. )
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Still waiting for our local media to ask the tough questions about Mauer's beard. It was first reported that he grew it for April warmth, then the Wild playoff run. If he has any kind of baseball superstition, the beard should be long gone, and the sideburns should be back. Also, if Mauer's two young daughters are anything like mine, they will regularly order him to shave.
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