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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm right there with you on Melky, I didn't like him for us on that contract. But Rasmus took a one year deal, for less money than Hunter, apparently without much of a starting guarantee. And it looks like he would have been perfect for us (could have started in CF to begin the year, then shifted to a corner or even 4th OF to make room for the kids). When all is said and done, Rasmus could easily have been worth 2-3 wins overall over Hunter/Schafer/Robinson -- which right now is the difference between us and a playoff spot. No word on Rasmus's clubhouse DJ skills...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    True, his initial numbers in AAA look pretty good so far. Still would be nice to get him a little further on his MLB acclimation path this year, but it's shaping up that we'll have to choose between that and another Arcia MLB evaluation this September, barring injury.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting about Rasmus -- I know some of the speculation was that he would be looking for a full-time CF gig, but he hasn't been a regular CF for Houston, and for that matter he seems to have been in a platoon / part-time role at times, even in the corners (he's been healthy most of the year, but has fewer OF starts than Hunter). Could have really given us some mix-and-match options, without displacing Hicks or Rosario. According to B-Ref, the OPS+ difference between Rasmus and Hunter is worth about 5-6 batting runs so far, or about half a win. Defensive difference is about a full win, and Rasmus also picks up about half a win on Hunter on the bases and in positional adjustment (Rasmus has played some CF, Hunter some DH). One could add a slight further adjustment for Hunter requiring Robinson as his caddy.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I remember some advocated for a Neshek reunion. Hard to argue that wouldn't have made a difference!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    For what it's worth, park factors are probably making a difference here. Despite similar OPS figures, there is a bit of a difference in OPS+, wRC+, and batting runs (Rbat B-Ref): Rasmus: 109 OPS+, 110 wRC+, 3 Rbat Hunter: 99 OPS+, 101 wRC+, -2 Rbat Cabrera: 107 OPS+, 100 wRC+, 3 Rbat Rasmus in particular has offered plus defense, including covering some CF, and plus baserunning at B-Ref. He's averaging 2 WAR between B-Ref and Fangraphs right now. Cabrera's averaging 1.1 (Fangraphs dislikes his defense), and Hunter 0.5 or so. The nice thing about a Rasmus pick up is that we could also have been spared some of Schafer/Robinson -- he would have offered a CF alternative from day 1.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that might be giving Perkins a little too much credit here. He was openly skeptical of Pinto already in the offseason when we first signed Suzuki, when he had barely even thrown to Pinto. I think he latched on to the framing thing as a numerical justification of his preconceived beliefs (which he sort of admitted in a quote here). Not that Pinto is any great shakes, but I don't think pitch framing was ever really in the top 3 reasons Perkins didn't like throwing to Pinto.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not so much development. I obviously don't think a few weeks in MLB is going to fix Arcia or fully acclimate Buxton. But both could/should be parts of the 2016 opening day roster, and both have a TON of question marks about them in that regard. I'd rather try to answer some of those questions now, rather than kick that can down the road, which could throw off our offseason priorities (do we sign a FA OF starter, or risk going without one?) and in Arcia's case, could make for a very uncomfortable roster crunch next spring since he is out of options.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? That's how you read this? Doesn't sound like he'd be terribly OK with that. Sounds more like the inn is full to me.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Out of curiosity, are there any catcher conversion examples? Off the top of my head, Buster Posey did it as a college sophomore. I can't recall anyone who did it as a pro -- any ideas?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Many would be shocked because it didn't happen -- Hicks did get a MLB call up last September. He didn't in 2013, but he wasn't sent down until August then either, so he already had 4 months of MLB time that season. Arcia had a month this year, and Buxton had 2 weeks. If the Twins can't get either of them more than a token MLB appearance yet in 2015, and Hunter "going out the right way" was a big reason why, that would be a pretty bad decision.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I doubt that more than 1 or 2 odd posters actually suggested a full benching or cutting of Hunter, and Bonnes seemed to be directing his statements towards the community at large. If you want to leave out the "unhinged" statement, fine. But Bonnes has also explicitly argued there isn't room for Buxton right now. THAT is not a extreme minority viewpoint around here at all.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Shields is still "a player of consequence" even with that contract. He's among the league leaders in GS, IP, and K's, and a 3.75 ERA / 3.35 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at. (He also has an opt-out after 2016, so if he is good next season, SD may actually pay him less than Nolasco's remaining guarantee.) Arcia is out of options and has no place to play in SD. And SD seems pretty good at developing pitchers and/or attracting FA pitchers, so I am not sure they need pay to stockpile guys like Meyer and Stewart. They are still interesting guys, but it just feels like a video game trade to pile them all together in one deal to get a good player.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I *really* doubt you can package together 5 players who are *all* currently disappointing or underperforming (or almost outright failed) for 2-3 players who are not. Not that those underperforming guys each have zero value, but I highly doubt you can just pile up such players in any trade. The sum is less than the individual parts, so to speak.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the thread starter and site founder has repeatedly asserted that a reduction in Hunter's playing time is "bordering on unhinged". Between that and Sano, Hicks, and Rosario, it certainly sounds like the OF/DH inn is full at the moment. And we're very near the point where Arcia and Buxton should be getting MLB reps regardless of their AAA performance (and actually, AAA will not be a 2015 option for either of them anymore in less than a month).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If May stays in the pen the rest of 2015, and his pen usage is consistent with the last couple weeks, he will finish with around 120 IP total for the year. This after 144 IP in 2014, and a pro high of 165. Are we going to hear next year about how we have to control *his* innings? Or look for him tiring down the stretch in 2016? May in the pen is a win now move for 2015, but I wish we were prepared to move him back yet this year once "win now" is no longer a concern.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Twins last 3 wins have all been comebacks with the winning run plated in the 9th inning. With all the blowouts and noncompetitive losses, I'd say our "luck" in close games has been neutral the past month or so.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    We're pretty close if some are arguing there aren't enough opportunities for Buxton and Arcia right now...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Like Buxton, Berrios will only burn an option if he's sent back down for 20 or more days in 2015. So if he started Saturday, was optioned out Sunday, we could recall him on or before September 4th and not burn an option. (Not perfect, as the Rochester season goes through Sep. 8, but we could keep him around for a few more days before optioning him too -- I notice Achter is still on the active roster...) For guys who figure to be in the mix for next year's opening day roster anyway, it's a great idea to get them MLB experience when opportunities are available beginning in August.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure how valuable that is, on a team that's below league average in all of those categories. Ryan Doumit had comparable ranks in his Twins seasons.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, but often if "Plan B" is on a guaranteed contract, by default they become "Plan A." If you can guarantee Torii stays in the Paul Konerko role, I guess that's okay, but it's also not clear how valuable the Paul Konerko role really is -- he didn't help the 2014 White Sox all that much, and they had room for him because Adam Dunn was their DH on an expiring contract. Presumably our DH could be a younger guy we wouldn't want to take starts away from. Also, Jordan Schafer was our Plan A in CF this season. I think even with Torii, we'll have a better Plan A than that in the OF corners and at DH.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, if they do that it doesn't matter much. But they could have left him on rehab until August 27th. And either way, barring injury they would have to demote someone for 3 days to get Buxton back here before roster expansion. (And I wonder if that person could be recalled again before the 10 day period? Not sure it applies in September...)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not well-versed in these stats, but Fangraphs said he was great against the fastball in 2014, and poor against it in 2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12101&position=1B/DH#pitchtype His 2014 sample was 50% larger, and his playing time more regular too. I suspect that his limiting factor might be something other than fastballs.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Would love to see Kennys assume Dannys position at shortstop!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, a September 1st recall would unnecessarily burn an option year, when they could have left him on rehab and optioned him August 13th and kept the option year at the cost of 3 service time days. So my teeth-gnashing would remain totally on point.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    In fairness, Buxton's initial call-up was timed with a Hicks injury. It's possible that the team thought he was close to ready so they called him up for a few weeks MLB action, and planned to send him back down to AAA when Hicks returned. They didn't really have that option until now.
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