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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The difference might not be evident in total money, but just whether he is willing to sign such a deal at all.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hi Vanimal, love the show! Question: I have a, uh, friend who is wondering if TD posters are at risk of having their identities revealed by hackers, like he heard happened recently to Full House stars Mary Kate and Ashley Madison. I think my, uh, friend is worried about his wife finding out about his online activities here at Twins Daily. That's crazy and could never happen, right? Right?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Rule 5 is fine. Teams regularly carry a Brian Bass, Swarzak, Robinson, Nunez type anyway. Graham isn't the problem, it is the rest of the pen and its mismanagement.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    No, the implication was that he said he expected to contend, but then when faced with actual contention, he opted for an extremely conservative approach, apparently looking ahead to 2016 because he didn't particularly feel the 2015 contention was worth investing in. It's not lying but it suggests his earlier proclamations didn't mean a whole lot. Personally, since his career long track record features similar conservativism/inaction, I don't think it was really bailing on the 2015 team or delaying more aggressive moves for 2016+. Which is perhaps more frustrating.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It's based on the Pythagorean formula.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Incorrect. He could be placed on the DL, but he can't be sent down. The 90 active days requirement is to prevent teams from stashing Rule 5 picks on the DL all season.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    RAR is the runs based version of WAR. 10 runs in that metric is approximately 1 win.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh look, May got one out today, with a 1 run deficit. How cute. Hope he can vulture another win...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    John, I accept that bullpen plan under normal circumstances. But these were not normal circumstances. O'Rourke was facing RHB in a close game in the 7th. Our other options were mop-up Graham and Achter. To let them blow a 3-run lead to the heart of the order in the 7th without using May was criminal. Nor am I sure why May had to be limited to 4-5 outs, tops. I think he recorded 8 outs or so in his last outing, despite not being particularly sharp, with 3 full days of rest since. In a close game against the Yankees, I would sure as heck rather try throwing May for 8 more outs if he was able, than let Graham throw with the lead on the line just so I could limit May to 4-5 outs.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Johan trade was with the Marlins, swapping Rule 5 picks. He had to stay in MLB his full rookie season in 2000. 2001 he saw his first AAA time.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Then use May to get out of the 7th and for the 8th, and go from there. If half your pen is unavailable, adhering to rigid roles with the remaining arms is a pretty terrible approach. Saying they were "forced" to use O'Rourke and Graham when they did is letting them off the hook.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the implication is that TR said he expected them to contend, but then acted differently once they actually were in contention.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    John, how were they "forced" to use O'Rourke and Graham when they did last night? May was on 3 days rest, as many days rest as Duffey had on Saturday. I haven't been able to confirm, but was Molitor saving May for a later inning? If so, that is massive bullpen mismanagement...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Was May the acting closer last night, so he couldn't be used in the 7th inning? Not that I endorse it, just trying to figure out why May wasn't used. No mention of May in the Strib game story:
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Details here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-fox-reportedly-agree-on-partial-in-market-streaming/ You will still need a cable/satellite subscription, so it is not an alternative to those, just another benefit (phone/tablet/computer streaming). Sorry, cord cutters! Although if you know somebody with a cable/satellite subscription...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Which is still inexcusable. The runner at third wasn't all that important but forcing him at home was.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That quote doesn't say anything about before the play, which is what you were disputing. I think the implication is there was a moment of doubt or hesitation during the play.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    AL OPS with an 0-2 count: .420. Twins pitchers against on 0-2 count: .511 (ranking 13th in the league, just ahead of Baltimore & Detroit) Twins pitchers have allowed only 2 HR on 0-2 counts this season. AL OPS *after* an 0-2 count: .468 Twins pitchers against *after* an 0-2 count: .552, lowest in the AL Still only the same 2 HR. Just eyeballing it, we have the worst opponents batting average on or after 0-2 counts, and the difference between us and the league is primarily extra singles allowed in those situations. Of course, we also have the worst opponents batting average overall, and rank 12th in opponents OPS overall too...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Perkins game-entering leverage index for the season is 1.81. Andrew Miller's is 1.62. Perkins has 11 one-run saves, and 10 two-run saves. Miller has 12 and 6, respectively. The save is the wrong stat to use to praise Perkins, but it's also a bad stat to use to criticize him.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No. It's easier to increase a .037 ISO by 16%, because it is already so low, than it is to increase .200 by 16%. The difference in the former is literally 1 extra base over 167 AB like Vielma had in the first sample. The difference in the latter would be about 5-7 extra bases in the same sample. A common example of this is batting average. A hitter who is 0-for-19 will increase his AVG by .050 with a hit in his next AB. Another hitter who is 9-for-19 will only increase his AVG by .026 with that same lone hit in his next AB.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    .128 ISO isn't a slap hitter. Eddie Rosario had a .137 ISO in AAA this year. According to MILB, Buxton's "GO/AO" ratio is basically the same at AAA as it was at AA this year (0.64 vs 0.58). 2015 comparable on the Twins MLB roster is Dozier at 0.60.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what I suspected. He was fine through 2011-2013. But the trend the last two seasons has been troubling (especially when he wasn't a Miller-level elite K guy to begin with).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Even by K/9, he was down in the 6's in the second half of 2014 too, same as now. That's close to Brian Duensing level (career 6.0 K/9 in relief).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    There wasn't a 0% chance until that runner crossed the plate. In any case, I absolutely don't want Nunez computing those percentages until that runner crosses the plate. That's not his job. I don't think anyone is suggesting that Nunez thought there were two outs before the play. But I think it's a valid question that he may have had a brain fart at the very moment the ball was put in play and coming toward him, not necessarily believing that there were two outs but even just unnecessarily querying his brain one last time for the number of outs and where to throw the ball could have been enough to throw him off and cause the bobble. Regardless of what happened before the bobble, he deserves plenty of crap for allowing his brain to shut off afterward as you say. His *one job* on that play was to get the ball to the catcher. I get that they're human, but an MLB player can't completely lose focus in that critical moment, to the point of making a nonsense throw, completely divorced from your *one job* on the play, at any time before the winning run crosses the plate.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure the intent of your snark, but... Kershaw has allowed more than 3 ER in a game only 4 times all season. Once was last week, the other 3 were indeed in April and May. Through the third such game, May 21st, Kershaw was averaging 6.5 innings per start in 9 starts (8 times completing 6 full innings, never throwing fewer than five and two-thirds), with 11.26 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 2.86 FIP, and 2.26 xFIP, to go along with his "crap" 4.32 ERA. It's not really comparable to Gibson's current 6 start run of 5.5 innings per start (only twice completing 6 full), 7.36 K.9, 3.27 BB/9, 4.71 FIP, and 4.21 xFIP, to go along with his 7.91 ERA. Give him back 3 runs to get to a league-average inherited runners scored rate and he drops down to a 7.09 ERA.
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