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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    "In A+" is slightly misleading because Stewart is in the best pitcher's league of the 3 A+ leagues. The FSL has a league ERA of 3.21, while the other two A+ leagues are at 3.57 and 4.22. (Sadly I don't have a good source for minor league ERA+) He's also only 21st among *ERA title qualifiers* at that level (1 IP per team game), which is not a great way to gauge minor league performance. Gonsalves and Hu both have notably better ERAs, but neither "qualifies" because they also have innings at other levels. (And off the top of my head, Giolito and Alex Reyes are a couple high-profile guys who don't "qualify" for your list because they were already promoted to AA midseason.) And even with these limitations of your list, there are 3 more guys ahead of him who are just 1-5 months older, which isn't really a meaningful age difference among prospects. His 2015 performance hasn't been bad or disastrous, but it's hard to spin it as a positive at this point. At some point "holding his own" needs to make way for actual sustainable success separating him from the pack, just to hit that back-end MLB rotation target.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I remember his ERA was close to average, but he also gave up more unearned runs than the average pitcher too, so his RA was worse.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Baseball has had a few such ceremonial retirement contracts, although not technically one-day contracts: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22757
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not having a plan (or having a terrible one) to go almost a week without perhaps your only reliable reliever, yeah that sounds like a quality issue. I don't think anyone has complained that the Twins have too few relievers this year, in terms of quantity. In any case, it seems we all agree it was a terrible move. Which is a shame, because it has offset what looks like a solid move with Duffey so far.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    "Engelb Vielma Is Making Noise" Probably just him pronouncing his first name.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you misread that post. May's spot start took away our best recent relief option by far for nearly a week, for meager benefit (3 IP in a bullpen game, when the other 6 Ip were likely coming from bad relievers). That IS a quality argument, not a quantity one.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Overall performance? Last I checked, he was notably worse than league average in run prevention this year. It is clearly not just the K rate that is worrisome.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I probably wouldn't believe it. Even elite pitchers actually need to develop their breaking stuff, you can't just shelve something you expect to be a wipeout pitch for multiple years/levels. If they are emphasizing the slider less with Stewart, it's almost certainly because it's not a wipeout quality pitch and they don't think it's his ticket to the big leagues anyway. Any minor limiting/controlling of the pitch for injury concerns probably wouldn't affect his stats that much (or would be dwarfed by the effects of inning/pitch counts).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If Graham is any good, Atlanta has zero incentive to work out a deal. To get Diamond, who was less a buy low injury guy and more of a stalled out low-upside AAA guy, the Twins had to give up a relief prospect not unlike Nick Burdi. You want to give up Nick Burdi just so you can put Graham in AAA, and use Darnell/Hamburger/whomever in his place? When you already have multiple weak links in the bullpen anyway?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Shifting goalposts? Did anyone say that? You could make the same claim ("didn't cost them the season") about almost any move, that's just the nature of the game.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana did look OK in his first few weeks in Rochester, but not so good to earn a quick ticket back. Again, he came back up when Buxton got hurt, seems like really convenient timing to say he had earned another look at SS at that exact time (especially when they used him at SS first, then a couple games in CF just before Hicks came back, then back at SS).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    True, he will still be 2 years away from arb after 2016. Twins have historically been pretty gun shy from early extensions, though -- they even waited until the most obvious extension candidate in the world Mauer was eligible for arb and already won a batting title. Would be nice to see some more aggressiveness locking up elite talent early, even if it is ultimately only $5-10 mil savings. It would be a good sign for this FO.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Is anyone really asking that we sign more starters? I haven't really seen that, except trying to flip Nolasco for an upgrade like Shields. I think plenty of people voiced reservations about committing that many resources to #3 upside starters. Each deal wasn't so bad on its own, but they probably needed to draw the line at some point, maybe put the resources towards a run at an ace if none was developed internally.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Those looking back on the Liriano trade, don't beat yourselves up too much. Escobar wasn't that great a prospect at the time, there was really no way for us fans to know he'd become a passable starting SS. Credit to the Twins for seeing that potential and helping him flip that switch at the plate, although ironically as this thread suggests, it was the Twins who have doubted him in that role more recently.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry to pick on you. It is just a trigger for me when I read the word "fine" in your comments. I actually agree witg you, more or less, in regards to Rosario vs. Santana.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Just meant that we should have options, we don't have to tough it out with Rosario if he's got a ~70 OPS+ early next year, with no improvement in his peripherals. I don't know if Rosario is quite that good of a prospect, that we should have to ride out a valley if, say, Kepler keeps raking in AAA. Rosario he might be near his peak offensive performance unless he improves his peripherals anyway, and it's more or less average (which is good and has value, but if that's also his peak, that reduces his value and future outlook).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I am always suspicious of such numbers quoted right after a big game. Although you don't even need those numbers to clearly see that Escobar should be the starting SS now, and should have been so since May at the latest.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The most puzzling thing is that they actually demoted Santana, then recalled him a few weeks later when Buxton got hurt -- and immediately began starting Santana at SS again! As if the only reason they sent him down with his .525 OPS was because of a roster crunch or something...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the thread started with the premise that there was a problem with Graham being on the roster. There isn't. There was actually plenty of room to use him and a "Rule 6" selection (or even multiple rotating "Rule 6" selections, although I wouldn't be in a huge rush to rotate them).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry for the digression. Back to the topic at hand, I think I'd keep Rosario on a pretty short leash for 2016, which should be fairly easy assuming we don't trade another young outfielder. I don't think he's likely to crash quite as hard as Santana, but there's a decent chance that he regresses and that his current line is close to his peak.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That's why I was careful to separate the two phrases, to avoid the inevitable inappropriate pictures.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll say this, given the Twins 40-man roster recently, there should be no need to try to "sneak" anyone through Rule 5 like Gilmartin. If a guy is a realistic Rule 5 pick like that, just add him to the roster, use him like you used Thompson, Darnell, etc., and get the benefit and flexibility of being able to option him as needed. Of course, you can still make your own Rule 5 pick from another org, which I have no issue with. Graham is not the problem with this year's bullpen. Pressly was not a problem in 2013 either.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I am just razzing you, for your optimistic reputation. The first Google hit for "Seth Stohs" + "be fine" right now is this tweet from you in March: "The Twins will be fine in center field. Schafer and Robinson both solid defensively." Next two hits I found: From February 2015: "Both [Duensing and Stauffer] have good track records of success and are still in their early-30s. They should be fine" March 2012: "Can't take anything from Marquis' performance tonight. He'll be fine. He's had a career of being pretty solid. No need to worry about him."
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    2018 meaning after 2017. Plouffe has 2 seasons left until FA.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Question, Seth: are there ever players/prospects who you think will *not* be "fine"?
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