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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You must hate a lot of parks. Denver, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston, and the White Sox all have ballparks with roughly equal or greater average seasonal home run park factors as the new Yankee Stadium since it opened in 2009, according to ESPN. Philly and Toronto are also comparable in that measure since 2012 (when the most recent new MLB park opened).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you actually know "the pitch framing stat" debited Suzuki on that, or are you just assuming that so you can justify your preexisting hatred? If those pitches were balls for 90% of pitchers/catchers/umpires, the pitch framing stat isn't going to blame Suzuki much for it.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Neither were Rosario's.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really "priority baserunner", more like "only baserunner of consequence." I am not sure it's ever "too late to throw home" in that situation, until the runner crosses the plate and the game is over. What if it was a high fly, deep enough to score the runner but high enough to let an outfielder get back to catch it? Are you fine with the OF just tossing it in to second base at that point, or putting it into his pocket for a souvenir? Maybe if Nunez throws the ball home like he was supposed to, the runner misjudges and tried to slide around Suzuki and misses the plate on his first pass? Who knows? It was unlikely to end well for the Twins at that point, but I don't want Eduardo Nunez to make that determination for himself while there is even a 1% chance remaining for a good outcome.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I would dispute both points. Nathan was a very good closer, but he's well behind a lot of other guys as reasons for Twins success those years. Heck, in our 5 best seasons by regular season winning percentage for the decade, Nathan only pitched in 2 of them. And the 2004 Game 2 blown lead was clearly on Gardenhire. It would be like if Perkins had mowed down the Yankees in the 10th and 11th innings last night, and then lost the game in the 12th -- you wouldn't honestly put much blame on him after that, would you? (The 2009 Game 2 blown lead was all on Nathan, however, and predictably he was hiding an injury at the time.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd say his strikeouts "diminished to the point they became a problem" last year (2014). First half K%: 30.1% Second half K%: 17.5% Compare that to this year (2015): First half K%: 25.2% Second half K%: 14.0% League average for AL relievers is 22%. Agreed though that from 2011-2013, his second half performances were not an issue.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    An optioned player does not actually burn one of his available "option years" (out of 3, usually) unless he spends 20 or more days on "optional assignment" in the minors. Buxton's first such day was August 10. Like in May 2014, Arcia was optioned but recalled about 10 days later, thus not burning his final option that year.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    So you think they would burn an option in exchange for saving ~3 days worth of MLB minimum salary? Because otherwise they could have let him rehab 3 days longer before optioning him. If they do unnecessarily burn that option, for that piddly amount of cash, that will be frustrating, even if Buxton *shouldn't* need it down the line.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    As long as the player is on the 40-man roster as of September 1st, you can generally get them on the playoff roster somehow (injury sub).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I have found no reason he wouldn't be eligible for the AFL. There does not appear to be a limit on AFL appearances, provided you meet the other eligibility criteria (service time, roster dates, etc.). Perhaps they won't bother sending him a third time, but he should be eligible. I have to imagine they'd want to reward Kepler's 2015 season with at least a token call-up. He's healthy, performing well in AA, already on the 40-man roster, and he's not super-young anymore (turns 23 this winter). Seems like a perfect confluence of factors.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to AA playoffs, judging by last year, it's just two rounds, both best of 5, with no off days in each round. So if Chattanooga's regular season ends on Sep. 7, they will get Sep. 8-9 off, and could be done as early as Sep. 12-14, or Sep. 18-20 if they advance to the finals. Twins regular season goes through Oct. 4, so that's still 2-3 weeks for potential AA call-ups. (FYI, Rochester is unlikely to make any postseason, so potential AAA call-ups could see almost a full month of MLB time.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    True, probably not Sep. 1st. But the Chattanooga season ends on Sep. 7, and the AFL doesn't start until October 13. (Forgot about Chattanooga playoffs, I guess) So Kepler is either on the bench in Minnesota during that time, or sitting at home.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Robinson would have to be waived to be removed from the 25-man, and they're not doing that. Like Boyer before his injury, I am sure Robinson is viewed as meeting expectations and will finish the season with the club, at minimum.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    More fallout from the Buxton option? Buxton is due back between August 20 and August 28, if they don't want to burn an option on him. Which suggests they might be delaying other moves they could make today (like recalling Vargas for a reliever) because they want the flexibility to exchange that reliever with Buxton soon.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but maybe $5-10 mil committed to Hunter is helping dictate the one-year contract limitation for bullpen guys. We just gave up prospects to acquire Jepsen at 1.3/6 or so. I could see a Neshek at 2/12 type being more palatable to this FO with a little short-term cash freed up. In any case, re-signing Hunter in 2016 is a terrible idea for many more reasons than just cash.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Hunter as a backup in 2016 is a bad idea, simply because he can't play CF (nor does he have experience in LF) so you'd need a 5th outfielder too. So that's two guys where you only really need one, essentially doubling the number of "stay fresh" starts they'd be poaching from regulars (at minimum -- I am sure Hunter would take some starts at DH too, and probably more than a regular backup in RF as well). Not that I think he'd agree to a backup role, or that we'd attempt to use him that way, but he wouldn't be a good fit for it regardless.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Like Jepsen, the real fault was not getting someone better than him. Hopefully we won't have to debate his re-signing.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You may be right. It's hard to gauge with terms like "bust" and "write him off". Obviously no one HAS to write him off for a couple years unless they can sell him high in trade, and if he actually makes it as a 4-5 starter for awhile, he probably won't be bust either.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2014 argument, that he was still pitching well allegedly without the slider, was intriguing. I can't imagine it really applies to his 2015 season so far. He's still young, but his ERA is league average, and if you include unearned runs he's notably worse than league average. He's notably worse than his team average in the same marks. His H/9 and BB/9 are also worse than league average. So it's not just K rate anymore, and it's beyond what a good ground ball rate can mask at that level. And just because he's 20 (almost 21), with his pedigree he should not struggle *that* much against the 23-24-25 year olds who are still toiling in A-ball. Not saying that he's bad or a bust, of course, but lowered expectations for him at this point seems to be a rational response (and doesn't mean writing him off).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    And below is another note at Fangraphs on Stewart, from this April. No hint about holding back on breaking stuff from either Stewart or minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-grichuks-barrel-kohl-stewarts-moxie-opening-day-arrives/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Was it ever officially confirmed that the Twins actually severely restricted his slider usage in 2014? I mean, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they monitored and controlled it, but it's a fairly big jump from that to shaving 50% or more from what his K rate should be with some use of a dominant breaking pitch at his level. I can't find any real reference to it. Mostly just speculation after the season, like this from his 2015 adopt-a-prospect thread: Another reference from January said "Stewart said last weekend at TwinsFest that his goal is to find himself in Double-A by the end of the season." Obviously the pitcher may have different goals than the team, but that doesn't sound like a guy who would be artificially lowering his K rate for a second straight season in A-ball: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minnesota-twins-rotation-bring-on-the-kids/
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Protecting young arms is all fine and well, but I think you are dramatically under-rating the necessity of actually using and developing the slider pitch, even at ages 19-20 in the lower minors. If Stewart can't really work on his slider until he's 21 in AA, that's probably going to be a strike against him.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, after his lost 2011 season, Morneau has been pretty consistent at the plate. The big change for him after that was slashing his K's upon leaving Minnesota (and getting a nice BABIP boost in Colorado). Mauer may not have that luxury either, as his K's had already jumped before his injury. Walks actually do show up in box scores. At least most modern ones.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, who really needs 40-man protection this winter? Here's the list of new 2015 40-man eligibles from Jeremy's org chart (hasn't been updated since the winter, but probably pretty good for this purpose): Bard, Luke Baxendale, D.J. Duffey, Tyler Haar, Bryan Harrison, Travis Hicks, Dalton Jones, Zack Melotakis, Mason Muren, Alexander Polanco, Joel Rogers, Taylor Valera, Rafael Vielma, Engelb Wade, Logan Walker, Adam J.T. Chargois wasn't on the list, I guess he was injured so long. Duffey's already been added, but otherwise, I think only Rogers, Chargois, Baxendale, Walker, and Vielma are doing much of anything at their current levels, and Rogers might be the only one who'd be a likely Rule 5 pick. Not a lot of holdovers distinguishing themselves either (Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, etc.). Given the FA and chaff currently on the 40-man, there shouldn't be a roster crunch this winter.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    We're 2.5 seasons into his pro career, through high-A ball. If they've really shelved a good pitch for that long, that might be without historical precedent too.
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