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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the original suggestion wasn't to consider it at this point. It was to consider it at this time next year if his performance hasn't improved by then.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Happy that I am that May is starting, he isn't remotely stretched out. Is it basically a bullpen game, with Duffey taking Hughes' regular spot in the rotation? If it's a regular spot, shouldn't that go to Berrios? EDIT: I guess Miller followed up with a tweet "Tyler Duffey likely here for just one start". May will have to get up to speed pretty quickly. And of course, that leaves our pen back at near zero...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe related to this? "Phil Hughes leaving Target Field now to get a shot to treat his back. Had to shut down bullpen session Tuesday due to pain." - Phil Miller (@MillerStrib) August 13, 2015 EDIT TO ADD: Ah, beaten to the punch. Hughes to the DL, apparently.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Why? It's so late in the season, we probably wouldn't even have to burn an option to send him back down. And he's not coming up from AA or some such -- he's very close anyway, and he's clearly the best option. And of course, it could be a spot start *audition* for more starts or even a September MLB relief role.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if that's really all that clear, from the facts we have. Back in January, MLBTR said "It had been widely assumed that Rasmus would pursue such a pillow contract (one year deal) in the wake of his underwhelming 2014 season to potentially set him up for a richer multiyear deal next offseason." If Rasmus defied conventional wisdom and wanted a multi-year deal coming off of his 2014 season, it almost certainly would have been a Phil Hughes 3/24 type deal which in many ways is even more team-friendly than a one year deal. Before signing with the Astros, he was strongly connected to the Orioles, who were reportedly hoping to land him for "$5-8 million" according to MLBTR. He was also connected to the perpetually frugal Rays. Both of those teams, plus the Astros, planned to use him in an OF rotation (so not everyday, and primarily in the corners) from day 1. Seems there was a reasonable chance that if the Twins had offered $10.5 million early, to take the opening day CF job instead of Schafer (particularly before the Dec. 2nd deadline to offer Schafer arbitration), Rasmus would not have waited until January to sign. Make it $12 million (MLBTR's predicted contract for him, and the salaries of Hunter + Schafer) and it would be even more likely. I am sure the Twins did not view Rasmus as their "type" so I don't think it was anything about his market that turned them off. They simply prioritized Hunter, and have also shown a willingness to roll the dice on Jordan Schafer types in various roles on the roster (see also: the bullpen).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Better stick in 2015? Curious how you figure that. Basically same batting average (1 hit difference), but notably better OBP and SLG for Rasmus. 15 point different in OPS+/wRC+, roughly the same difference as between Hicks and Hunter at the plate this season. I agree with your other points, which is why it's hard to make it a wash. Notably better in the field, on the bases, AND at the plate is awfully hard to wash away with intangibles (and whatever his previous reputation, Rasmus appears to be providing positive intangibles in 2015 too).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    We're on a message board. I am obviously not claiming absolute certainty about anything. Nor did I completely reject anything or limit my analysis to OPS+. Quantitatively, Rasmus has: - virtually the same batting average (-.004, or 1 base hit difference) - better OBP (+.015) - better SLG (+.034) - overall, better OPS+ and wRC+ (+15 each), roughly the same difference as that between Hicks and Hunter at the plate this season (or the same relative difference as between Dozier and Plouffe at the plate in 2015) - also overall, better Rbat (+7), roughly the same difference as that between Willingham and Parmelee in 2014 - better defense (+24 runs by Rdrs/yr, or equal UZR/150 but spread across all 3 OF positions, either way advantage Rasmus) - better base running (+3 runs by B-Ref, +4.4 by Fangraphs) Qualitatively, Rasmus has: - played across all 3 OF positions as needed - accepted a bench role at times as needed, apparently without adversely affecting his or his team's performance Rasmus also signed with a team whose 2014 record was equal to that of the Twins, for less money and less guaranteed playing time, so he wasn't exactly an unrealistic target either. I am not opposed to qualitative credit in the least, but that's a decent-sized and thorough gap to overcome (including some qualitative advantages for Rasmus in 2015, despite his prior reputation). If you want to wash away any difference between, say, Hunter and Rios last offseason, that's fine. But Hunter vs. Rasmus, 2015? Personally, I am not comfortable just washing that away. Obviously you and other posters disagree.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Invoking Revere and Sano sure seems like a reference to height.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, if you're just going to eyeball it with that kind of analysis ("living room time"?), I'd guess most every MLB decision or transaction will be "a wash."
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. Arcia went down just before Rosario and Hicks came up anyway, right? I think Rasmus's flexibility definitely reduces the amount of "running somebody out there we didn't like". One could have gotten creative to get both Rasmus and Hunter in the lineup, especially with our short leash for Vargas at DH, but that probably would have been overkill and it would have eventually cost opportunities for Rosario or Hicks too.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be changing the very definition of the strike zone, which would be a much bigger deal than the umpire effects of pitch framing, IMHO.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Not my intent. Just disputing the notion that pitch framing implies bad calls. I'll delete the offending paragraph(s).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't recall any "rumors" that were remotely that specific about the Twins and Shields. A quick search of MLB Trade Rumors yields zero mention of James Shields connected to the Twins, even dating back to last November when Shields was freely available just like Ervin Santana: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/james-shields Jeremy Nygaard speculated about a possible Shields deal before the deadline and mentioned some of these names, but that was not a "rumor" any more than your speculation here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19417-article-they-couldn’t-could-they…/
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd start by just moving him back to his catching playing time. Give him a full day or two off per week. It's not a benching, not a platoon, not a part time role, just a slight reduction from his career-high rate of games started and plate appearances this year. It's a logical consequence of having career-worst seasons two years in a row. (You could even leave him in the #2-#3 spots in the order for now, which is a much less important battle than playing time.) If he doesn't bounce back over the next year or so, our current 3B/DH/OF options give us some latitude to scale his playing time back a bit further without much fuss.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not the "idea" at all. It's that pitches are fast, the strike zone is small, and there are a lot of borderline pitches, whether called by man or machine. And around any margin, there are different ways to interpret what is observed, and different factors that contribute to that interpretation. Nothing inherently bad about it.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Part of this is a chicken-and-egg problem (or some kind of cause-and-effect?). We targeted Hunter very early, almost from the moment the World Series ended, and never showed any interest in signing Rasmus. Our aggressive approach with Hunter reduced Rasmus's theoretical opportunities and contributed to his lengthy wait. I am normally receptive to your line of reasoning, and yes we'll never know anything for sure, but in this case, given what we know (he signed for less with an identical record 2014 team, didn't even get a guaranteed everyday job, much less in CF which we could have offered), I think an early offer to Rasmus instead of Hunter would have had a decent likelihood of landing the player around Hunter's price.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    We weren't fine in CF for the first month-plus of the season. Or the 2-3 weeks Hicks was injured (remember Danny Santana starting in CF again?). Do you also remember Escobar's 27 starts in LF? Rasmus would have given us the same flexibility he gave the Astros in that regard, where he has covered for injuries and under-performers at all 3 outfield spots, while taking his share of turns on the bench when needed too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, Rasmus playing time is mostly a function of the Astros usage of him. The fact that he signed with a team with that usage plan for him, from day 1, and has performed well with that usage, would have bode well for his role with the Twins.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Hypothetically, if we had better set-up options, maybe we're more likely to move Pelfrey or Milone to a bullpen role, for non-setup work, rather than May. (In fact, we did briefly plan to move Pelfrey to the pen this spring, when we presumably thought our set-up options would be better than they turned out to be.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure an emergency 5th outfielder is the best use of a roster spot in that scenario, especially if Molitor continued to give him at least a start a week to "keep him fresh".
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Hurts nothing? What's more useful? A) Hunter, Hicks, Rosario, or Buxton available to start, pinch hit, pinch run, or be defensive replacements (all but Hunter on the latter two) or B ) Hunter, Hicks, Rosario, and Robinson available to start (preferably not Robinson), pinch hit (all but Robinson), pinch run, or be defensive replacements (again, all but Hunter on the latter two) Keep enough guys around on the bench or in the bullpen who "hurt nothing" by themselves, can, in fact, hurt. I don't mind Buxton getting a few more reps in AAA at the moment but there's no question he would make the team better.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it could have been for both reasons. Initially they didn't use him as a leverage guy, but the past few weeks he has been in the mix for those appearances (although we've had so many blowout losses, those appearances are few and far between). Might have still happened with a better pen, although it could have happened a little differently -- maybe they keep him stretched out better for return(s) to starting in 2015.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure what impact you thought Rasmus would have. He's beating his career OPS+ and having his 3rd best WAR season of his career, second best since 2010. His team is in first place despite a significant injury to their star RF, a poor season from their opening day CF, and an even worse showing from the LF who shared time with Rasmus early in the season. EDIT TO ADD: Also not sure what your expectations for Hunter were. He's slightly under-performed his ZiPS projection, with very mixed reviews of his defense.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure why the fewer PA should have wash out anything. It certainly doesn't by WAR. Rasmus missed 6 games with an infection, and 3 games for the death of his grandmother. Otherwise, his fewer PA is the result of the Astros mixing-and-matching with other outfielders, flexibility the Twins could have also benefitted from.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Rasmus has hit HR at about the same per-PA rate. Also, he's most frequently batted behind .269 OBP Evan Gattis, which has probably impacted his RBI rate.
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