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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Pelfrey has been a positive for the Twins this season, but he's not the kind of option teams go out of their way to add to their rotation for a stretch drive (meaning, give up valuable pieces for). August waiver trades, almost by definition, don't return valuable pieces to the selling team. Do you remember who the Twins gave up to acquire Pavano, Fuentes, Rauch, Nevin, and Borders in August? Do you remember who we acquired for Morneau, Willingham, Correia, Carroll, and Delmon in August? Here's recap of recent such deals: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/notable-august-trades-2012-14.html The Mets did very well in their August 2013 deal, but they had a 138 OPS+ / 5 WAR outfielder and a 85 OPS+ catcher to package together.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler strikes me a bit like Hicks circa 2012 -- a good but not dominant hitter, who has taken some time to adjust to new levels (although he's taken pretty quickly to AA). Not the kind of guy I'd necessarily skip a level to rush to MLB. Perhaps a midseason promotion to AAA would have been warranted, though, so we wouldn't have to skip him a level to give him a September call-up, or if we need him coming out of spring training next year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Being a single parent is even tougher when your own child launches a projectile at you. "Denard Span of Minnesota Twins hits mother with foul ball" http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=5043987
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Shane Robinson had zero successful sacrifice bunts in his Cardinals career. B-Ref shows a single failed attempt in 2012. He is now 2-for-2 in sac bunt attempts for the Twins this year. Yay! http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinsh01-bat.shtml#batting_situational::none
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I mentioned upthread, but I don't consider Robinson to be a generically "weak hitter". This is basically his third full season in MLB, and he has been just under the league batting average in all three. The power leaves something to be desired, which is why pinch hitting with Hunter might have been a good play, but in terms of getting a hit, Robinson is not Butera, Fryer, 2015 Herrmann, or a pitcher up there. His likelihood of simply getting a base hit is about equal to Hunter and Dozier. Actually, I could see some argument that letting Robinson hit instead of Hunter makes Toronto prepare for a possible bunt, and maybe reduces the chance of a DP, without losing any likelihood of a simple base hit. But I don't think actually making him go through with the bunt, on the first two pitches, the second of which was way out of the zone, was a good idea in that situation. Also, if Hunter is no longer viewed as a good hitter in that situation, and is ceding more starts to Robinson... maybe there actually is room for another outfielder/bat to get playing time?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    While we're discussing bunts, how about Sunday's game? Bottom of the 10th, tie game, leadoff walk, Rosario swings and fouls the first pitch, then spends the next two pitches squaring to bunt (a take and a bunt foul) before striking out on the fourth pitch. Interestingly, in Sunday's game, Robinson was due up next, but Hunter pinch-hit for him, and hit a grounder to shortstop which did NOT result in a double play -- Nunez (the same runner who was on first last night) still advanced to second base, no bunt necessary...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    If you think those two pitches were "hard and in", you may want to go back and look at them. The first one was middle of the zone, outer half of the plate, Robinson pulled the bat back and it was called a strike (how often do inside pitches get called strikes on pulled back bunt attempts?). The second pitch was middle of the plate, about level with Robinson's head. Here's Gameday: And here's the strike zone map from Toronto's broadcast: Here's Martin set up on pitch #1 (almost exactly where it came in): And here he is, in a very similar spot set up for pitch #2: And regardless of how/where they were pitching him, put your shoes on their feet for a minute. If Perkins came in with a 2 run lead, and put the first 2 runners on, we'd be ecstatic if the other team decided to bunt with the third batter (assuming the third batter wasn't a pitcher or Butera/Fryer, and he wasn't -- for all Robinson's shortcomings, his batting average is just a hair below league average this year, basically the same as Hunter's and Dozier's so far).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    And for the record, I am not basing my opinion on that. It is simply a matter of how precious outs are. Robinson, for all his faults, still has a 1-in-4 chance of getting a hit (not much different in that specific regard than Dozier). Giving away that chance has a cost. Ask Toronto how they felt about the bunt, it seemed like they welcomed it.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, "two hits needed to tie" is not accurate. It assumes only single-base advancement, and only on hits. (But with runners at 2nd and 3rd, we have no problem assuming the runner on 2nd will score on any hit?) Also, while DPs suck, by definition playing to avoid them has a cost.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to mention, Toronto was expecting the bunt and in fact welcoming it (Hawk was pumping strikes) and Donaldson is a great 3B so there was very little chance of Robinson reaching on the bunt, and actually a fair chance of him screwing it up too.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily, a non-bunt out could also advance the runners.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, May didn't allow a HR until his 5th start. Just walked the yard.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    We should have given Colabello $184 million in 2010!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I endorse this.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey could slide into the pen for a bit, and we could skip his next turn with the off day Monday
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    If Duffey was indeed more ready, what kind of line would Berrios have put up tonight?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    They actually did shell out $55M dollars over 4 seasons for a 32 year old this past offseason, so I don't think it's that crazy. And that was at a position where we already had other significant investments and major league caliber (or soon-to-be MLB caliber, i.e. Berrios) players. The AAV difference was $3.25 mil, or half of Suzuki's annual salary. The total guaranteed portion of Suzuki's extension would have almost exactly covered the difference over the first 4 years.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    They extended Suzuki when they knew Martin was about to hit free agency. That's not a valid excuse. Many of us suggested they wait on re-signing Suzuki, specifically because Suzuki-level catchers or better are available every offseason and the Twins should have explored other options. Actually, given the position the Twins were in (already committed to a lot of SPs, and few catching prospects anywhere in the org), signing Martin instead of extending Suzuki and signing Santana probably would have made a lot of sense, with similar financial implications.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the link. How did AJ even think to run on that? Gotta love it, though, unless you're a fan of the Angels (or good umpiring ).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, the Twins bullpen is +0.4 WAR this year, according to Fangraphs. 25th in MLB, but not negative! Maybe that's what TR was looking at, at the deadline. "This bullpen is better than replacement, so I better not replace them!"
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Why is Duffey a more logical choice than Berrios? Other than Duffey needing Rule 5 protection this winter. Berrios has roughly the same innings at the same levels, 3 years younger, with notably better K/9 and H/9 rates, only marginally worse BB/9, and basically the same career HR/9 (granted Duffey has been stingy with the HR this year).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Uggla regularly rated as notably below average by defensive metrics. And Dozier's 2014 WAR was better than any single season WAR of Uggla's. Heck, by B-Ref, Dozier is on pace to have almost as many WAR the past 3 seasons as Uggla had his first 5-6. Dan Uggla's first 6 years, with average or better defense at 2B and plus baserunning, is a pretty awesome player.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Why should Arcia have to re-prove himself against AAA pitching for the third time? He never really failed against MLB pitching to begin with either (~100 OPS+ overall, and significantly better against RHP). Given what we've seen of Arcia's personality, he's almost certainly frustrated by his assignment right now. Continuing to hold him down doesn't seem to be a productive move.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    A quick combing of Baseball Reference suggests this was perhaps only TR's 4th trade of players not on (or recently on, in the case of DFAs) the 40-man roster, in his 17 years as GM.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Bryant has been quite a good baserunner, and has been a better than average glove at third base (and Plouffe has shown us how valuable that is). That's adding a lot of value. I'd say your sample size should be the other clue that Bryant is better at the moment. Sano is still riding a .404 BABIP, and Twins fans know how sustainable that is. He could/should be good, possibly as good or better than Bryant, but he's not there yet.
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