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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's Fangraphs WAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1961&ind=0&team=8&rost=&age=&filter=&players= Hunter in a 10th place tie with Koskie. By wRC+ (rate stat), he's 38th.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Splits page at Fangraphs, then scroll down to the Advanced section: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=10123&position=P&season=2015
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That poster was me, but the money here went from Oakland to the Mets to cover part of Clippard's salary.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Torii can beat Knoblauch's peak, can he? It came in some lost seasons, but Knobby was pretty incredible for a few years there.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair to mike, some posters have been resisting almost any present day trade proposal with the argument that we need to shoot for 2017 instead.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I meant international pre-2009. But yeah, add Cuba and Asia to markets where the Twins likely had/have an erroneous assessment of risk. (Even after Target Field opened)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't spend anything internationally until Target Field was almost open, four years after it was approved. And I am not sure they ever broke slot on a draft pick, until the spending caps.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Also the place to look for stats influence is not major free agents, the pool is too small. There should be more evidence in the smaller, marginal acquisitions, like Boyer, Stauffer, Robinson, etc.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that I am saying TR ignores the stats department in player procurement, but there's not a whole lot of evidence either way yet.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    According to this article, the other two guys in the stats department were hired full-time around November 2013, which is exactly when Nolasco and Hughes were signing. And if the stats department was pushing TR to sign pitchers based on FIP, they should have explained the outfield defense part of that equation before 2014 too. You could also make the argument that the pitchers most willing to sign quickly and reasonably that winter were the ones who most recently underperformed peripherals/expectations (certainly fits Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey). We didn't necessarily have to target them due to FIP or whatever. (The later offers to Garza and E. Santana seem to support this interpretation too -- we just really needed to sign some pitchers!)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I can't speak for jimmer, but it seems the Twins advanced stats focus has been much more on game strategy rather than player procurement. It feels like TR is still flying by his own rules in that department, just with a bigger payroll. Not sure how much of that is TR, or how much of that is our nascent stats department still trying to get a handle on analyzing our own players, much less players around the league.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Segura is only 1 year younger than Escobar, has the same service time, and hasn't performed appreciably better either. Heck, even Segura's big season was just a 105 wRC+, and Escobar's was 102 last year.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt. But look at how long it took the Twins to come around on paying international amateurs and draft picks (and a lot of it by coercion, with caps and slotting). That suggests to me that their risk evaluation is sub-optimal.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, his 2012 pace was great. But everyone knew it wasn't really sustainable, probably not for the rest of 2012 and certainly not for 2013-2014. He was basically the same guy he was 4 months earlier. I am sure his stock had risen, to the point that if were declared a FA he would have received better than a 2/14 offer, but I doubt it had risen to the point where a team would surrender a worthwhile asset to get him at that price. Years of control generally aren't that valuable at the deadline, particularly for a $7 mil AAV mid-30's DH. Heck, a lot of teams might prefer the flexibility of going year-to-year with such a player. Jason Adam was a C prospect when we got him. We probably could have fetched something better in 2012, but it still doesn't mean it was worth making the deal. Multiple C/C+ prospects aren't that great, especially if they required 40-man roster spots, etc.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    They generally don't change hands 4 months into a multi-year deal, no.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I like Shields, and wouldn't have minded him instead of Ervin Santana last winter, but I don't want to bail SD out of that backloaded deal. I suspect they are trying to get out from the money owed him, which suggests they probably won't eat a significant portion of it yet -- just that they would be willing to accept little in return.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, Jean Segura isn't that good. Career 85 OPS+ propped up by a fluke first half in 2013, which will probably unduly influence his first arbitration award this winter. Average-ish defense by UZR and DRS. Only 3 more years of control too (all at arbitration salaries). He also turned down a contract extension from Milwaukee, for what it's worth.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, LA's ownership and front office were a mess until recently, and they were kind of a standout among big markets in that regard. I think Goin was basically a one-man show until November 2013 too (coincidentally around the same time Molitor was brought to the MLB staff?).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt they have used some stuff the past couple years. But I really doubt they are "playing possum" Seth. That would mean basically nothing to other front offices, and it would just antagonize fans. Why would they do that? Obviously no one is divulging secrets, but I think they've been pretty forthright in how they've viewed/applied advanced stats, both for good and for bad (fortunately much more good recently!).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I also think this is a bit of a chicken-and-egg statement. Contenders are often the only ones who bid seriously, due to the conservative approaches of the Twins and others. Those are often the only real options for a player.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it is hyperbole, but yes, he would have come here for double, if we had made that offer. I think 10-20% more would do it, in most cases. How about Cliff Lee as a FA after 2010? We were allegedly willing to rent him for Hicks + Ramos a few months earlier, but not willing to bid straight cash on him? We had a winning team at the time.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't define "elite" as what the market offers in any given offseason (or trade deadline). That's how you get "elite" signings like Barry Zito. I am implying the Twins fail in that they don't bid at all for top free agents, ever. That's an avenue of improvement that should not be closed to the Twins, not due to lack of baseball smarts, and not due to lack of revenue. Same with international amateurs, pre-2009, or drafts pre-slotting.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    From the article: Interesting omission of Josmil Pinto...? If it was over the winter, I guess it would have been while he was in winter ball, but given the state of our catching corps, I think I would have paid Josmil handsomely to stay home and join this program.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd say they were middle of the pack at best until now. It's not a matter of advertising, it's just the facts we know of how it started and who is staffing it. Now, I suspect, things are evening out a lot. Shifting, PitchF/X, and pitch framing are so ubiquitous now, nobody can get a huge advantage out of any of them. And Statcast is basically a league-driven thing. So the Twins are probably middle of the pack now, and bunched together in a pretty large pack. I don't see them separating from that pack though (not up but fortunately not down either).
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