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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Where is there a pretense of accuracy? This reminds me of ZiPS critics getting hung up on Player A being projected for 22 HR and Player B 20. Those are just the projection results, it is not a weakness of the system. And an ordinal ranking by glance at the standings might work for 1 race, but there are ~10 teams across 5 races here. Unless you are a savant, a glance at the standings is not going to produce a more meaningful picture than these projections.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is claiming accuracy, beyond KC being a mortal lock. It is a projection. If you can just glance at the standings and come up with better percentage chances for each of the pile of teams still in contention, and each of the ways they could make the postseason, more power to you. But I kinda doubt that is actually true.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Tampa is currently playing Oakland, worst record in the AL, and has 3 home games left against Miami, 3rd worst record in MLB. Twins don't have any opponents left who quite compare to those two clubs.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    2-3% hardly seems like a wild swing. There are only 40 games left, a 2-3% swing after one seems perfectly reasonable.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I stand corrected! Guess it is strength of schedule. We still have to play Tampa on the road too, that is probably a big factor.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    KC has the best record in the league by as wide a margin (6 games) as the next best teams have playoff spots. 12.5 game lead in the division, plus 11 ahead of the wild card, with 40 games to go, they are about as close to locks as you can get for postseason play. (Remember, that 100% isn't just the division, it is division or wild card odds. It is all but mathametically impossible for KC to completely miss the playoffs at this point)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It is postseason odds, not wild card odds. Tampa has a small chance of winning their division yet too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You can use a different 25 man roster for the wild card game. So you can leave off a SP or two, and further load up on relievers (or a bench bat).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    In the offensive environment of 2000, that was actually good for a 80 ERA+, virtually identical to Graham's so far this year. And Santana was 4 years younger than Graham is now.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    dWAR is a counting stat, and Wieters has barely played the last two years, so it shouldn't surprise he is near zero. Plus, Suzuki's dWAR is mostly just the positional credit which all catchers get according to playing time. His Rfield, the measure of his actual defensive performance, has been negative the past two years.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Next year we probably want him to start through September (and hopefully into October). Wouldn't it make sense to let him get a taste of MLB starting action in August, then work out of the pen after the minor league season ends in September? Control the innings however you want, but I'd like to keep him in use so we don't have to talk next year about how he's never pitched a MLB length season before. (I have a feeling that innings limits might come up for May if he returns to starting in 2016 too.) Also, get him on the 40-man for September 1 and he is a playoff option, should our remote chance come to fruition.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If it is any consolation, he should be fairly easy to resign, if we so desire.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I was talking about the delay since July, mainly.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You'd be hesitant to drop Aaron Thompson from the 40-man right now? Any particular reason?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You did say Duffey's two starts were "more evidence" of the imprecision of scouting reports. Just seemed a little premature (and ironic, given your imprecision claim was based on the scouting sample being too small). Put another way, I don't think a 45 scouting grade means a guy can't occasionally exceed the level. Just like a guy with 45 power can go on a little HR binge, it isn't evidence that the scouting report is necessarily wrong. If Duffey can keep showing this curve and getting good results from it for a year or two at this level, which we all hope he does, that's the better time to really say the scouting report missed something.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, he could come up now, and then go back to the minors to start 2016 and we get that extra year of control too. And projecting pitchers is tougher than hitters. Should the 2005 Twins not have called up Liriano for September? He got hurt and optioned a few years later and still got the extra year of control (not that it did us much good).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Think we are talking about different things. I was responding to a post that suggested our delayed bullpen trades meant some young guys got experience in the meantime. I don't think that happened, thus there was no benefit to delaying these bullpen acquisitions.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It has been two good starts. Which is probably a smaller sample than the scouting reports you claim are invalidated.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, better late than never. Although it does feel like they are still misjudging the pen, if this is primarily a reaction to Perkins.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure you used Duffey as an example of the problems with scouting reports? Or was it just coincidence you brought it up in this thread? Not to mention your dubious claim that "everyone just takes these reports at face value." Just because people cite them doesn't mean they aren't aware of their limitations.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Which young guys got experience recently? Achter and O'Rourke are both about 27 years old, and could have gotten that experience earlier in the year. Graham has been getting experience all year, as has May. Worst case, the Twins slow conservative approach, against all reason, cost them a critical 2-3 wins, for no tangible benefit.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the Angels are on pace to claim that spot with only 83.5 wins, so it is possible we won't need 88.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I think using two Duffey starts to condemn scouting reports is perhaps a greater example of an over-reach based on a small sample...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    What's strange about it is, why now and not July? Or even the first week of August? The Twins were an even more likely playoff team at those points, our pen weakness was plainly evident, and I doubt that the asking price for Neal Cotts was any higher than now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Following up on this, Stewart's RA per 9 (so, ERA including unearned runs) is 4.13, versus 3.83 for the whole FSL.
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