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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Now I think you're doubling down on the sarcasm, right? Earlier in the thread, you said Berrios wouldn't be "ready" until 3 weeks into 2016, but also said it wasn't about service time -- that's what triggered my sarcasm detector...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I knew you meant fans were naive, but it's also naive to suggest the Twins are focused more on service time for a pitcher than other MLB teams. Seriously, how many pitchers have you heard about who were held back months beyond when they were apparently ready, just to avoid Super-2 or get an extra year of control like Bryant and Longoria? I can't think of any, really, much less in a pennant race with a record and experience similar to Berrios. Also, the Rays haven't flipped assets like the A's. They've signed Archer, Moore, and Davis to long-term contracts. They also called up all 3 of those (plus Price, Hellickson, and Odorizzi) to help the MLB club in a September pennant race.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    This is an argument for aggressively pursuing an extension with a player before they are a mere year away from arbitration, like Dozier was this past winter. We will still have plenty of time to do that with Berrios regardless of when we call him up, unless you think he will immediately pitch like prime Pedro Martinez his first year in MLB (which even Pedro didn't do until his 5th year in MLB).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you might be exaggerating Berrios' upside here too. He could be quite good very soon, but he's probably a #20 range MLB prospect with a career minor league ERA around 3. He's probably closer to Matt Garza level prospect than elite like Giolito or Urias now, or Strasburg, Price, Felix, etc. in the past. He could take things to another level eventually, a few guys certainly do, but you can't always hold back assets thinking only of their best-case scenario. That means two things for your argument: 1 ) his age-28 FA season probably isn't as unobtainable in a contract extension as you suggest. Even if does ascend to elite, it might take him a couple years (as it did Pedro Martinez and others). 2 ) it probably won't be all that difficult to justify him starting 2016 in the minors for 4-6 weeks. I doubt he's elite that quickly. We somehow used Santana and Liriano out of the bullpen for multiple months when they were apparently ready to be elite MLB starters, I am pretty sure we could send Berrios to the minors for a month. (This might actually be prudent if we want to conserve his innings a bit yet in 2016, with an eye toward possible postseason competition.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Responding to my own post, if the Twins recalled him Sep. 1st and didn't like how he adjusted to MLB or saw some warning signs of fatigue, I think they could option him back to the minors so he wouldn't even get the full 34 service remaining in 2016. For example, optioning him on Sep. 16 would leave him with only 15 days service time for 2015, so they could call him up as early as May 1st next year and still get that extra year of control. (And by my count, that would only mean 19 days on "optional assignment" for 2015, so the Twins would still retain the full 3 "option years" to use on Berrios in 2016 and beyond.) Even though we're only fighting for a wild card game right now, I think you'd have to be crazy to not at least give this a try in 2015. As demonstrated, you can always option Berrios later to save service time.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor nitpick, Berrios is only 21. So, if he came up today and never went back down, he'd be eligible for free agency after his age 27 season. So the "extra year of control" would be his age 28 season. That said, there is no reason the Twins couldn't call him up Sep. 1, and then option him to AAA to begin 2016, then recall him on or after May 20th or so and still get that extra year of control. If that was so important to them. But, do you know of any teams that have played such service time games with pitchers? It's much less common than it is for position players, and I think that's for a good reason.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually that start was over 3 weeks ago, and was followed by a minor league demotion for rest (and a nice return to MLB earlier this week). Outside of that one start, McCullers has been damn good pretty much every other game this season. The Astros are on a run of 9 straight games allowing 2 runs or fewer, I can't imagine their pitchers have been struggling too much lately. Actually, a closer look shows their SP have allowed more than 3 runs only once in their last 19 games, dating almost back to that poor McCullers start August 3rd.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure that poster is being sarcastic.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Twins are naive enough to base this solely on service time. How many pitchers have been held back for service time reasons in MLB? Even the Rays, perhaps the most frugal organization in MLB, which gave Wil Myers his 5th and 6th months in AAA just to avoid Super-2 in a playoff season, have regularly called up top pitching prospects for September pennant races.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although usually a starter goes to the bullpen in that scenario. Santana won't be able to, hence we may need another arm, if not a SP than at least someone capable of long relief. I guess Duffey might be that guy if Hughes comes back to the rotation, but frankly that staff could still use the help of someone like Berrios if he is capable of providing any.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know how this is decided, but perusing the official 25-man active roster this morning, Escobar is still listed as an outfielder: http://twins.mlb.com/team/roster_active.jsp?c_id=min
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    He's going to get 2 more starts if he finishes at Rochester and is allowed a 20% innings increase over 2014. So 5 more total would really just be 3 additional starts. I think if you want to deploy him as a starter, you could aim to give him 5 starts through the rest of the regular season and the wild card game. I don't think you should get too cute about planning for the postseason beyond that, though. If you get to that point, you don't have to ride him like Bumgarner 2014, you could just use him like rookie Bumgarner in 2010 (1 start per series), assuming he is still effective, of course.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting observation. Just eyeballing last year's arbitration list, Brandon Crawford would have been a comparable in terms of service time and performance to Escobar this winter, and he got $3.18 mil. I'd guess Escobar will come in at notably less than that (maybe splitting the difference between Crawford and what utility comparable Nunez got last winter, $1.03 mil).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, didn't mean to pick on you. It's just a pet peeve of mine when small sample stat lines are brought up right after a big game/series. Any way you slice it, Escobar certainly looks solid enough at the plate the past 2 years to be a starting shortstop in MLB right now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The announcer is correct, ba-REE-ohs. For reference, Baseball-Reference has player name pronunciations, right after the name at the top of the page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=berrio000jos
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios actually now has the same number of *starts* as he had in 2014 (25). We talk about innings, but without a dramatic increase there, maybe starts is a better measure for a lot of guys, considering the entirety of a starting pitcher's preparation schedule? I'm not sure if an extra 2 outs per start (his innings increase right now) should be more of a precautionary limiting factor, than simply a few more turns through the rotation. If we apply the same 20% rule to starts as we've previously done to innings, he could have 5 starts remaining. I could definitely get behind giving him those starts at the MLB level. If he adjusts quickly and succeeds, we could even take protective measures (6 man rotation, skipped starts, pitch counts, etc.) to leave open the possibility of a few extra starts beyond 30 if needed and if he is still looking strong. I wouldn't be bothered if they want to approach him in the bullpen for September too, but either way he deserves a look in MLB.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly, and he should be watched closely. But his performance and starts/innings right now don't suggest he's particularly close to this threshold. That's fair, although lots of young pitchers have done it successfully without any issues. Again, like the total innings concern, he should be monitored closely during any relief "conversion" process, but I don't think it is warranted to not even try simply out of "what if" fear.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct on the 40-man, but all that means is we can add Berrios to that by August 31, recall him up Sep. 1st when rosters expand, and decide later if we want him to replace someone on the 25-man roster for the postseason. Rochester is all but eliminated from playoff contention. They are 5.5 games back in their division with 12 to play (and only play the 1st place team 2 more times), and they are 7 games and 3 teams back of the wild card. Hopefully that is no longer any kind of consideration.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man roster, as is Jason Wheeler. I can't see either being protected this winter, nor is either useful to the MLB team this September, given that we already have 4 LHP in our bullpen, plus Darnell on the 40-man at AAA, plus Taylor Rogers who could warrant 40-man protection this winter too. (Plus LHP Milone who might be on the rotation bubble if Hughes comes back or Berrios is inserted.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt Escobar is our best SS candidate, but it's not really fair to make this comparison after a rare 2 HR game for him -- that's pretty much a selective endpoint to favor him! His SLG in this time frame jumped 86 points just last night. And over the last 2 games, his AVG and OBP jumped almost 30 and 20 points, respectively. Santana has a .604 OPS in AAA during this time, that's the comparison I most prefer. Escobar beats him handily using any endpoints in 2015.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not listening to the announcers, but I notice the Rays TV broadcast displays OBP along with the triple crown stats.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    It's almost certainly their player projections. BP and Fangraphs both project the Twins to be the worst team in the AL the rest of the way (and have been doing so for some time ), and their projected odds are a near match. Taking out the player projections at Fangraphs reveals much better odds for the Twins.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs has the Rays behind us too. In their season-to-date stats mode, we actually have the best chance at the second wild card! And an even better chance in the coin flip mode.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Related to my post above (and most posts I've been making lately ), this sounds like another argument for promoting Berrios. Not that Graham was necessarily a good option for a playoff roster, but we don't really have a multi-inning reliever now with him on the shelf (assuming they like May as more of a traditional setup man right now). We wouldn't even get the benefit of moving a starter to the bullpen for the postseason thanks to Ervin Santana being ineligible. We really could use another trustworthy live arm for the wild card game and potentially beyond.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. Rule 5 picks only need 90 active days in their first season, and Graham is well past that. He can be optioned next spring. If he is out the rest of the year, Graham will give them another "flex spot" for playoff rosters, along with E. Santana and Nolasco. Basically anybody on the 40-man as of Sep. 1st will be eligible to "replace" these injured players come October. (I don't even think position matters for these replacements, although they do for injuries during the postseason.)
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