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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite accurate, there is no 25 man roster right now. Florimon was added back to the 40-man. (Hey, Guerra pitched for the Pirates earlier this year! Does that prove "good teams want him around" too?)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know, but it they are willing to let him throw out of the bullpen this year, then letting him reach his innings limit by starting in AAA is even more inexplicable.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Wimmers will be 27 this winter. He went unclaimed last winter after a better (albeit shorter) AA season in 2014. I doubt he needs to be protected.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Walker for sure? I am not so sure about that. From what I've read, he's not even a good corner defender. Seems like a bad fit for a Rule 5 pick. Rogers, Chargois, and Jones would seem to be the mostly likely on this list, as they can be stashed in a bullpen and all have high-minors experience. In any case, I did the math upthread. You could protect Chargois, Walker, basically all 8 possibilities that Berardino mentions, and still have 40-man room for Berrios this winter if you want. It's not that hard.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    As has been repeated many times, losing that game wasn't the problem -- the problem was taking May out of the pen for a week around that game. If not Berrios, Graham was going to pitch multiple innings in the bullpen game anyway, might as well let him start it and only use May if needed. Exactly! We could have used May in the bullpen in the Yankees series (and in the preceding Texas series). But he wasn't available, because we wanted him to lead off a bullpen game against Kluber. Berrios doesn't even have to enter into it, pulling May from the pen for a week for that abbreviated start was an incredibly poor decision.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana's 2015 hitting struggles started before his playing time was diminished, unfortunately for the Twins. Escobar hit very well in a utility role to finish 2013 and begin 2014 too. I wouldn't read too much into the timing of his 2015 slump.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would you mention the walk off triple for Florimon, but then not mention he was DFA'd the next day, went unclaimed by every team in baseball, and was outrighted to the minor leagues? Doesn't sound like any team wanted him around MLB, much less "good teams". And Butera was deemed expendable by the Dodgers and Angels, and I think he's only sticking with the Royals right now because they have the most durable catcher in the league in Perez. It's not clear that any other team would want to keep him around other than as a 3rd string guy in AAA. EDIT: Frankly I am not sure what we are arguing about. But I'd guess about 30 out of 30 MLB teams don't want Florimon on their MLB or perhaps even 40-man rosters, and Butera might be very close to that figure too (leaving out the Royals, obviously).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, and an earlier thread brought up Tyler Glasnow as a comparable. I thought I refuted that partially (and Glasnow did some refuting with a disastrous start yesterday in AAA, 5 walks with only 1 out recorded). But also, Pittsburgh is 6 games behind their division leader, and 4.5 games up on the second wild card. So they have a lot less to play for in the last month than the Twins too -- adding 1-2 wins for them probably won't change their postseason odds or seeding at all. (Additionally, they already have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, so it would be much harder for Glasnow to contribute marginal wins than Berrios for the Twins). The Twins, trailing a playoff spot by a game, are much more in a position of need, and their below-average staff gives them a clearer opportunity to add marginal wins by upgrading some innings.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine, Berrios can be optioned to begin next season. Most posters think he should start next year in the minors anyway. Doesn't really have anything to do with seeing if he can help us in a pennant race right now.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Losing Aaron Thompson off the 40 man roster will not hurt in the least. I am flabbergasted that people keep suggesting this. Seeing if one of the best prospects in the game, dominating at the minors highest level, could contribute to an MLB pennant race would be well worth dropping Aaron Thompson a month ahead of schedule. Dude turns 29 this winter, and is apparently well down our depth chart at the moment.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, it would start the clock, but that clock can also be paused with options. They could look at him for 2 weeks, then option him back down if it doesn't look like he will help. They are so close to the end of the season, he won't spend 20 days on optional assignment so he won't burn an option this year, so it will only cost them ~14 days service time and a 40-man spot to see if he can help. Pretty minimal cost, his chances of contributing don't have to be that great to make it worthwhile.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I think depending on how this season unfolded (like, if he hadn't fallen off the last month or two), there was a real chance he could have been asked to start again in 2016.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, calling up Berrios now wouldn't burn an option year in 2015. You only use an option year when you get sent down. Once added, he would have to be optioned in 2016, but presumably they will be willing to do that anyway. I doubt they are concerned about having an option year available for him in 2019 (although they might if he missed time to injury anyway).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Berardino narrows it down to 8, but even among those 8, only Rogers seems a likely Rule 5 pick this winter. There is no upcoming 40-man crunch, certainly none that should affect talent like Berrios (as it did not affect Buxton a few months ago).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not simply a matter of having an injured/ineligible player to replace. I think there is a reason adding non-40-man guys still requires approval from the league, while you can mix-and-match however you want with your 40-man and DL guys. I'm not sure anything as extreme as K-Rod (added Sep. 15) has been attempted since K-Rod. You are right, though, Ervin Santana's upcoming ineligibility gives them the best argument.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it has been proposed and calculated before -- Bill James talked about Pennants Added, and there are a few articles using the metric name Playoff/Postseason Probability Added -- just doesn't seem to be currently available anywhere. Someone at TD should do the math to promote Sano before MVP voting season concludes!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Shorter version: plenty of room 40-man wise to see if Berrios can help us in 2015.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    From the article: That's 8 guys you'd even think about protecting right now. With the 60-day DL, we've got 42 guys on our 40-man at the moment. 5 of them will be FA and automatically removed after the season, 3 more are strong non-tender candidates who could be brought back on nonroster invites (Fien, Nunez, and Robinson), and at least two more can and should be dropped at anytime (Thompson and Fryer). That gets you to 40, so all you have to do to find a spot for Berrios is decide one of those 8 above are not worth protecting (Jorge hasn't even pitched in high-A yet, Vielma hasn't appeared above high-A, Melotakis has apparently been injured all of 2015, Jones and Chargois are both walking 6 per 9 at AA while they are league average age, and we know about the flaws and slumps of Walker and Harrison). And/or decide to drop a guy like Achter, Darnell, or Pinto, all of whom will be 27 next year and are way down the pecking order (or Tonkin who will be 26 and out of options next spring). Upon closer inspection, probably several of those 8 will not require protection, leaving us room to sign an additional MLB FA or two too (or acquire 1-2 MLB players in trade) as needed.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    It does appear that simply being in the org at the Aug. 31 deadline is the strict requirement, although I don't think anyone has grossly flouted the 40-man roster expectation since K-Rod in 2002. It is doubtful that the Twins would push that envelope, and unknown whether MLB would be as accommodating of such a request anymore now that they have dramatically streamlined postseason roster rules.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Who was dropped from the 40-man roster to add Eric Fryer?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Glasnow is slightly behind Berrios development path. He has fewer pro innings than Berrios, hadn't pitched above A ball entering this season, was injured earlier this season, and only has 6 starts so far at AAA (and has yet to pitch beyond 6 innings in any of them). He might be closer to Berrios circa September 2014 than 2015. It appears Glasnow also has more pitch count restrictions (only 3 times topping 90 pitches this year) than Berrios (who has topped 90 pitches 20 out of 26 starts).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not the trade-off at all. Seeing Berrios get a start or two (or relief appearance or two) in MLB this this year would only cost a start or two next season. That's all it takes to find out if Berrios could help us in this pennant race. If it turned out he could help the MLB team and was not fatiguing, and he pitched the rest of the season here, it would probably cost 5-6 starts in 2016 to get that extra year of control, max.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That is terrible planning. Why? Because it only takes ~6 days service time to audition him in MLB this year. If he doesn't look like he will adjust quickly or is fatiguing, you can option him back down after 6 days. The hold him down for 21 days next year instead of 15 to get your extra season of control. He only nets 34 days extra service time this year if he is actually good and helping. Also, pitching out of the pen, he wouldn't blow by any innings limit (particularly if he hadn't been allowed these last couple starts in Rochester). Don't' want to move him to the pen? Fine, but this team has been in contention since June, no reason we couldn't have adjusted his schedule (skipped starts, extra long AS break, etc.) to allow Berrios to make September starts in MLB. So yeah, not even attempting to use him in any role during a pennant race, given our current pitching staff, seems like very poor planning.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Red Wings playoff chase? They held their deficit at 5 games, still with 7 to play!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Except saving May for that spot start and letting him recover took him out of that vital setup role for about a full week, contributing to several losses during that time.
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