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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, yes his recent hot streak isn't sustainable. I hope no one is arguing that. But his improved offensive output for the last 2+ years certainly looks sustainable, that is why I referenced that timeframe. And his 2014 ISO wasn't "right in line" with his previous career, it was a career high at the time, at any level (outside his partial 2013 at AAA, which as I said appears to be when he took his big step forward at the plate -- I would doubt he could have taken another such permanent step forward the past month, though).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No worries, the 2015 Vikings are just following the 2015 Twins blueprint. Remember that opening week for the Twins?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Check Escobar's power dating back to his 2013 stint in AAA. I don't what exactly he did then, but he has been a markedly better hitter since that point, over 2 years ago.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, I am aware of that, and that scenario has already been discussed here and is laid out separately at the link I provided. But the post I was responding to was specifically asking what if 3 teams tied for one wild card berth, presumably that could be the Twins, Rangers, and Angels or something like that.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Complete playoff tiebreaker procedures: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. The team with the home-field advantage tiebreaker would have an interesting choice: win 2 games at home to advance (as "Club A"), or 1 game on the road (as "Club C").
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. While tiebreaker games are technically regular season games, they don't "count" when determining other possible postseason berths or tiebreakers.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really during the regular season. Davis is clearly the "8th inning guy" rather than a strategically deployed Bullpen Ace as Brock described. Their closer is considered a worse pitcher than their setup guy, but that's more an accident of seniority and isn't uncommon around the league. Of course, KC's "7th inning guys" are so strong right now, it probably doesn't matter all that much to them. But the Bullpen Ace model could benefit teams with a weaker pen, where you don't necessarily want to rely on Fien/Boyer to get critical outs, nor do you want to waste perhaps your only shutdown guy on a lot of garden-variety 9th inning, bases empty save situations.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Correlation does not imply causation. It's quite likely that other issues were making the slider less effective (generating less K's and more walks), and he was then forced to rely more on the fastball. (Just glancing at the numbers. he's also using a change up more in Pittsburgh too.) The Twins certainly deserve some blame for not getting the most out of him, but it wasn't nearly as simple as "throw more sliders."
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FA relievers, just from the trade deadline: Mark Lowe, Tommy Hunter, Joaquim Soria, Tyler Clippard, Jonathan Broxton (mutual option) Others include Shawn Kelley, Darren O'Day, Antonio Bastardo. There are a few more with club options, etc. If the Twins want, they should be able to score one of these guys for Neshek/Gregerson type money.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, this issue still exists. Forum users don't see John's lovely italicized Ticket King plug including the promo code at the bottom of his "That's The Ticket" articles.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    There is going to be a shake-up in Washington, but I think it will be higher up than the bullpen. (In fact one of the reasons for the shake-up will probably be their managing of Storen and the pen in general.) Papelbon will still be in the picture, but their new manager and coaches may not have the same issues with Storen. Even if it's not all lollipops and sunshine, the relationship might be repaired enough to allow them a healthy showcase for Storen in 2016. For all the Nationals and Storen have struggled recently, he still has a career-best 11 K/9 on the season, as compared to Jepsen's career-low 7.3 in Tampa. Storen also has a notably better walk rate and is a full 3 years younger, for those that note the connection between age and velocity. He was also 29-for-31 in save opportunities, with a 1.73 ERA, when he was replaced at closer, for what it's worth. What do you think a deal similar to Jepsen's look like, in terms of Twins prospects now? Just eyeballing prospect lists, and the closest level/rank comparable to Hu might be Gonsalves. I wouldn't do that when I could just sign a decent FA setup man in the 3/15 range (Storen's final arb season may cost $7 mil anyway).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    And let's not lump all Mauer criticisms in the same boat -- folks complaining about Mauer pre-2014 were by and large ridiculous. Folks who began expressing criticism/concern about him in 2014, though, seem pretty reasonable to me.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer has certainly been steady lately, which is better than some of his other recent stretches. His slash line during this 33 game on-base streak is .280/.368/.384, for a .752 OPS and 108 wRC+. Almost the same as his overall 2014 performance (105 wRC+). Not a great sign going forward when this qualifies as an extended hot streak for him, but given our roster at the present moment I'll take it.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey wasn't really dominant at any point at AAA this season. I don't think that's a useful standard to use. In fact, everybody and his dog knew that Berrios would start this year at AA, and given what he showed at that level last season, it was clear that, if healthy, he was almost certainly going to be promoted to AAA by midseason. There's no way anyone could claim surprise that he started breezing through AAA lineups by late July, and that he took it to another level for a couple starts in August. But I don't think the Twins were caught flat-footed on his development -- I think it was just TR sticking to his preseason plan for Berrios. Whether he was primarily trying to protect Berrios' future, overrating the usefulness of the 40-man spot, overrating our current MLB pitcher staff, etc., hopefully that decision doesn't leave a sour aftertaste on the season.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    For anyone else wondering, the between inning entertainment has been moved over to the 1st base side at the new park. Saints season ended tonight, hope I wasn't the bad luck!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Nationals are a mess at the moment, but they are still clearly going to try contending in 2016, and I don't think they have a deep pen or they wouldn't have targeted Papelbon. Not sure they would have any interest in dealing Storen cheaply. So, he'd cost more than Jepsen, and I would rather address the bullpen in FA if that is the case.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, the Yankees rotation is so thin, and their 2015 bullpen so reliant on resting Betances and Miller, that I suspect the Royals would rather play them coming out of a wild card game than almost any other playoff contender on 3 full days rest.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The Royals will get 3 days off after the season before the start of their ALDS anyway. It will be no problem for them to use their regulars if ALCS home field advantage is on the line.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what I hope too. Having 6 starters gives us some flexibility in that regard, hopefully making up for the lack of flexibility due to not having aces and trailing in the standings...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Given their top starters aren't aces, that's all the more reason they need to play match-ups (L/R, ground/fly ball, ballpark, opponent, etc.) over the next 3 weeks rather than set their rotation with October 5-6 in mind.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the doubts mentioned by others, Plouffe is only controlled for 2 more years. Why give up their only internal catching solution, for an equivalent length (and more expensive) corner infield solution?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody has ever accepted a QO yet. If he doesn't get the pricey 4+ year offer he wants this winter, a 1 or possibly 2 year deal is a real possibility.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    But on a short term deal, he stands a reasonable chance of returning that pick when the contract is done (like Ervin Santana for the Braves).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If that is the case, then Milone probably shouldn't be starting every 5/6/7th day in the meantime either. We should be optimizing our lineups starting now just to get to a game 163 or WC game.
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