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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It would be interesting to see how they handle Game 162 on Sunday. I guess it would be Gibson on 3 days rest, which would as you say mean Pelfrey on regular rest again for a potential Game 163. Once we're in the postseason, though, I absolutely think it would be a 4 man rotation. I don't know exactly who those 4 would be, so Pelf could sneak in. But if Milone or Hughes isn't healthy enough to pitch on that schedule, they will be replaced (or alternate), I doubt we would add a 5th guy to every turn. (An aside, if we got into a game 164 tiebreaker scenario, Santana could start it on 3 days rest, although he could also be available in relief for a game 163 on 2 days rest.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at some non-winning out scenarios... If the Twins go 3-1, the Rangers can't be caught, so we'd need the Astros to go 1-2 (or worse) AND the Angels to go 2-2 (or worse). If the Twins go 2-2, we'd need to Astros to get swept AND the Angels to go 1-3 (or get swept). And both of these would likely result in game 163 and possibly even game 164 tiebreaker scenarios. (Texas and KC, once their respective divisions and seeds are clinched, might even be somewhat inclined to help create a massively messy tiebreaker for the wild card teams...)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for doing some research. Of course, winning out is still hard. Fangraphs "coin flip mode" gives us only a 8.2% chance of claiming that last wild card. Although one factor in our favor is it's difficult for the Royals to overtake Toronto for home field. They are a game back now, and would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker. A Toronto win and KC loss today would reduce Toronto's magic number for home field to 1, essentially making the final series completely meaningless for KC.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Video of the play and response: http://m.mlb.com/video/v511644483/mincle-tempers-flare-after-ramirezs-bat-flip/?game_pk=416002
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't stay up to see this part of that game, but that jumped out at me from the play by play log too. That inning went double-strikeout-strikeout, then they intentionally walked the lefty Kipnis who was 0-for-4 to get to the switch-hitting Ramirez who was 1-for-3 with a double, already trailing by 6 runs.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Just realized with the rainout, either Hughes, Milone, or someone on short rest will have to start game 162...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Professional athletes in general are not known to be "realistic" about such things. And Minnesota isn't really Hunter's "home" either, it's a team that he came up with and returned to but I honestly don't know how interested he would be in a major career change (either part time player or coach) to stay here.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? It seems odd to me to assume that they would ask him to accept (and that he would accept) a bench role for the first time ever. Could happen, but there doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest it yet. The more likely scenario right now is re-signing him to start in RF again.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, I get it now... Angels-Rangers play each other this weekend, so at least one of those teams will wind up with at least 75 losses, which would presently tie the Twins and Astros.... previous post deleted!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought the main objection to this specific trade was including Chih-Wei Hu? The jury would still be out on that part, I would think.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember, the Oakland loss in July, we actually trailed 1-0 until the 9th when we scored took the lead, aided by a throwing error and HBP (before a Mauer double and a Sano sac fly). And then Perkins only blew the lead on an infield single with 2 outs, a wild pitch, and a bloop single to bring him home. (Fien actually lost the game quickly in the 10th.) Hard to get too worked up about that loss, or that performance by Perkins.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually liked the Jepsen move, and didn't mind the May move to the pen either. Could have used another good arm out in the pen, though.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Was it over when A-Rod bombed Pearl Harbor?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you mean Phil Cuzzi here?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    As for the other stuff going on that day, yeah, if the current playoff format was in effect, Tampa/Boston and St. Louis/Atlanta would have just been playing for home field advantage in their respective wild card games. Although who knows, the wild card games might have been pretty exciting too. The 2011 postseason actually featured 4 series that went the distance, including the World Series. No postseason had featured more than one such series since 2004, and no World Series had gone 7 games since 2002. I think the excitement of those "do or die" games is what really prompted the additional wild card, to guarantee two such games every October no matter how the regular season or postseason plays out. The 2011 season ending drama is probably just as likely to re-occur under the new system, except now it will be shifted down to the 2nd wild card spot. This year's AL is shaping up to have that chance.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    And let's not forget the Twins were walk-off winners that day too, to avoid 100 losses!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That was John's #7, "Saturday game to the Yankees, when the Twins had a big lead and blew it." Probably should have been more aggressive getting Milone out of the game in the 7th, before our 4-run lead was reduced to 1. Although interestingly, it was that game where May pitched a fantastic 8th inning protecting a 1-run lead that made me think he would be a bullpen weapon in 2015, which was partially undone by the oft-cited spot start in mid-August.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Right, on the topic of this thread, it makes even less sense. The Twins DL'ed 2 pitchers in the days leading up that spot start (retroactive 3-4 days, of course), and still had Aaron Thompson languishing on the 40-man. They could have easily recalled the AAA starter who was already scheduled to start that day (Berrios) rather than pull the best arm from their bullpen for a week to lead off a bullpen game (in which he would be followed by Graham for multiple innings, opposing a healthy Kluber -- odds of victory not good anyway). http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/transactions/#month=8&year=2015&team_id=142 More specifically, they could have recalled Berrios and Tonkin for the game on the 14th, then optioned Berrios after to recall Duffey to start the 15th.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    1. How about limiting his innings in August? Berrios was breezing through AAA lineups by the end of July, and was still 57 innings from his +20% limit. 3. Is your contention that the Twins decided at the beginning of August that they only needed one additional arm, and that they had to choose between Duffey and Berrios? That's a more damning accusation about their handling of the situation than your "myth" #2, that Berrios ending the year as a starter at AAA was predetermined.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    John, just to make your list complete, the above should be 6a, and it should be followed by this one: 6b. Four days after the "Let's just throw May back into the rotation for 30 pitches" start, when the Twins blew a 3-run lead to the Yankees in the 7th inning, plumbing the depths of our bullpen with O'Rourke and Graham in a high-leverage relief spot. (Bringing in Graham, with the bases loaded and a 3-run lead, to face A-Rod? Arg. Maybe this game should make the list on its own merits, apart from the May decision.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, me too. That August spot start was a perfect time to audition Berrios without affecting Duffey or the other starters, and maybe steal a win -- but most importantly, keep May in his vital bullpen role that week. Heck, even starting Graham might have netted us a win or two against Texas and NY just by keeping May in the pen, although a Berrios audition could have greased the wheels for him assuming some valuable innings later on (instead of, say, Achter). Long story short, that "bullpen game" took arguably our best reliever at the moment out of commission for the 7 games surrounding it (and since he wasn't injured, we didn't even get the benefit of the roster spot to add a reinforcement). TR and the Twins have actually been really good/lucky in this regard -- in the TR era, they've never fallen just short of the postseason with such an obvious in-season culprit as the May/Berrios mid-August hijinx. We've either made the postseason handily, fallen way short, or generally had to point to less tangible losses (2008 and Smith's previous winter trades comes to mind). I am still enjoying this season, but I hope they can make it happen this final week to lessen the regret over this move.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    They weren't back-to-back, there was a game in between, and Perkins got the loss in the PIT game but didn't blow a save/lead -- actually we never led after the 5th (Pelfrey!) Tied at 3 through 7, PIT scored 4 in the top of the 8th off Fien and Duensing, we somehow scored 4 in the bottom to tie, and Perkins gave up a run in the 9th which proved to be the difference.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The "SABR crowd" generally doesn't think that much of WPA except as a fun toy as John uses it here, charting the path of a game. It's an opportunity stat, although one nice thing about it compared to RBI is it works negatively too. If Mauer grounded out there instead of doubling, he would have seen a tiny negative WPA penalty. But if Sano grounded out after Mauer's double, he would have seen a larger negative WPA penalty. In terms of WPA, with greater opportunity comes greater risks and greater rewards. Another benefit over RBI is setting up a run has some value, even if as we see in the Mauer example it's not as big as actually driving in the run (although in later innings the two events are probably closer in value).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer's double was obviously nice, but in terms of WPA, no, he should not get credit for what followed. With 2 outs and nobody on, Mauer had very little risk of negative WPA in his plate appearance. Sano and Plouffe had the risk of stranding a runner at second. WPA is an opportunity stat, like RBI, just have to keep that in mind.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess most baseball fans both enjoy the competitive moments AND like discussing close losses. They are not mutually exclusive activities.
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