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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. $18 mil cash, I guess.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember buy low candidate Matt Kemp? He netted the Dodgers a starting catcher. If they don't go far in the playoffs, Mattingly likely gets the boot, not Puig.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't there rumblings of arm issues, even before the trade? Given his recent performance, I think his best bet may be a 1-year make-good type of deal, rather than a depressed 5 year deal in a market with a lot of top SPs.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Precise service time games aren't really part of the Twins "right way" either, see Joe Mauer 2004 or Miguel Sano this year (coming up 22 games after the assumed Super 2 date had passed). But, pitcher wins and batting average FTW! (By the way, in case you didn't notice, .248 is pretty close to league average these days, and when you add in some power and walks, it was actually a better overall hitting performance than even Suzuki's career high .288 AVG last year.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I bet Dozier didn't say this at midseason, when people's evaluation of his first half performance landed him in the all-star game.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there is a chance that giving Mauer some reps in the outfield corners might help by taking his mind off his performance at the plate. Think of all those years he was a great hitter -- as a catcher, he probably didn't even have time to think about his approach at the plate too much. I am sure he works hard at first base, but there's just no way his guaranteed daily 1B duties get that much thought. After awhile, playing corner OF probably wouldn't either, but the act of moving him around the diamond a bit might. Many theorized that unburdened from the responsibilities of catching, he would be even better at the plate, but clearly that hasn't happened. Maybe he needs to think about something else, and relax at the plate? Not saying it's guaranteed to work, of course -- the more likely cause is that he's simply aged at the plate -- but I think it's worth a modest shot. Probably won't make him worse at the plate, and gives us a little more flexibility to substitute and work other guys into the lineup.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, maybe Tsuyoshi Wada, plus a few prospects -- I guess you could prefer the Twins 3-6 starters, but I can't see any way they make up for the likely massive gap between Arrieta-Lester and Duffey-Berrios. Arriea might be the best pitcher on the planet right now, not just in quality but in quantity (durability) too. And of course, the Cubs may go out and get another free agent SP too, which could make Lester a very nice #3.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, our previous GM Andy MacPhail has a lot of career parallels with Epstein. Hired for his first GM job very young by a new ownership group, inherited a good core group of players, made a few moves to win a World Series, reloaded and won a second World Series a few years later, then moved on to bigger money/control (and potential rewards) leading the Cubs.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Donaldson passed his concussion test and expects to play tomorrow, according to Jays radio team.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins "went after" Maddon? I bet Max Scherzer's name was mentioned when Scott Boras was checking up on our plans for Mike Pelfrey last winter too. The ample evidence of the Twins conservatism dwarfs a single anonymous and unconfirmed report we asked about Maddon, perhaps too late to matter. We can debate how much it matters, but I am surprised the Twins thoroughly demonstrated conservative nature is even a point of contention here.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe I didn't explain it well. Again, not that the Twins could have gotten Maddon or Epstein specifically, but the Twins GM and managerial progressions are about the exact opposite of that aggressiveness / forward thinking. And that same stark difference is also plainly evident in our player acquisition processes.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    In terms of strikeouts relative to league, young Radke was probably better at that than Gibson so far. Also, Radke pitched a lot of innings, even for his era. Combining innings and run prevention, Radke was a legit ace for about 5 years there.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Was that first year really worth that much, going forward? If he was worth 5 WAR last year, that took the Twins from 65 to 70 wins, dropped our draft/waiver/Rule 5 position 3-4 spots, AND prompted the possibly ill-advised extension despite signing Ervin Santana too.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you read my post? I said Maddon was another example of aggressiveness from the Cubs, an aggressiveness that is absent from virtually every Twins move. I really think you are missing that point here, and getting sidetracked by "Twins didn't do specific move X because of Y." The point is, the Twins NEVER make ANY moves like move X (and often using the same justification Y).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean when the 73-win Cubs bought Maddon, Lester, and Montero to help jump start their return to contention? That's precisely the opposite of the Twins "right way" to rebuilding.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    In terms of experience and salary, Hughes was a closer asset match for Feldman than for Arrieta, that's all I was saying. (And indeed, ultimately the Twins may have been better off flipping Hughes as the Cubs did Feldman, especially if Ervin Santana was next on their FA shopping list.) You are missing the point if you think the problem with Pelfrey and Correia is that they were blocking internal options. Putting it in those terms is exactly the issue many of us have with the Twins thinking. The Twins are too often content to simply fill roster spots with mediocre players (even in projected mediocre rebuilding seasons) rather than looking for higher upside / flippable assets.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins, when not signing/extending middling veterans, always seem to default to an "in house guy who they think might work out." Players, managers, GMs, you name it, and that is again an example of a difference between the Twins and Cubs. The Twins did not expect to compete, but bought Ervin Santana anyway? The 2014 Twins were only 3 wins behind the Cubs (and actually 4 wins ahead of the Cubs by pythag), with no Cardinals in their division. They could have almost certainly explored the market and still re-sign Suzuki, but instead chose to extend him in July -- for two years -- and preemptively pass on the offseason catcher market altogether.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? That wasn't an "Arrieta trade" at all. Pierzynski was a starting catcher with 3 years of team control remaining but getting pushed out by the #1 prospect in baseball, Nathan had just completed a fine season as MLB setup man, Bonser was a stalling former 1st round pick, and Liriano was an interesting young international pitcher coming off a season lost to injury. It was a fantastic trade for the Twins, but none of the principle players or teams involved resembled the Twins/Cubs and Feldman, Arrieta, or Strop circa 2013.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. The Astros attempt at network ownership failed last year, and I understand the new network is fairly widely available. The Dodgers channel was bought by Charter Cable this summer so they've gained too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The only difference? The Twins paid Phil Hughes $24 mil just to take that chance. Arrieta started in AAA for the Cubs. (And Hughes' track record suggested he was much more of an known quantity, both for good -- higher floor -- and bad -- lower ceiling.) We're not necessarily saying the Cubs have magic coaches that made Arrieta great, but Arrieta had potential and was cheap to acquire once the Cubs made the front-end investment in Feldman with an eye to flipping him for a project. Meanwhile, the Twins picked up Pelfrey and Correia that year, with an eye to keeping both for multiple seasons, and repeatedly used MLB rotation spots as rewards for AAA veterans.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Another example of the difference between the Twins and Cubs -- the Twins needed a catcher the last two winters, and only signed a backup with demonstrated little trade value, then locked him into a multi-year extension when they should have kept looking for real solutions at the position.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Point is, the Cubs aggressive moves made it more likely they'd be the recipient of such "luck."
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I took it as one example of an aggressive move that Chicago makes, that the Twins don't, not necessarily a specific move that the Twins should have or could have made. Heck, Epstein himself is there because the Cubs were aggressive at bringing in someone from outside the organization too. Again, not that the Twins could have landed Epstein specifically, but it's hard to imagine a less aggressive front office leadership sequence than Bill Smith, Terry Ryan (again), and Rob Antony as (occasional acting) GM-in-waiting.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably, but "bottom third" could mean ranking 21st but with an actual dollar amount close to the median and really not that far from ~10th place or so, slotting just after the billion-dollar mega-deals. Using Vanimal's newer link above, Cleveland was the median team in average annual rights fee at $40 million. Assuming we're not signing bad deals, there's really no reason the Twins can't top that if they want to. Another way to look at it, using Forbes' list, we're "bottom third" in total revenue but within 10% of the median and 20% of 9th place. http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#page:1_sort:5_direction:desc_search: In modern MLB, there just isn't that big of a difference between 10th and 20th, or perhaps even 28th (basically, everyone but Oakland and Tampa). As you say, a $125 payroll would bump us all the way up to 11th in that measure (and coincidentally, it would be about equal to our 2015 opening day payroll plus our Forbes estimated operating income of $21 million...). With the rebuild hopefully moving into the rear view mirror, there's really no reason we can't support that level of payroll now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The same company owns both the Jays and the TV channel, so I'm not sure that rights fee is all that accurate.
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