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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course it could have been better, but I'm not sure I'd say this series was "not good." That feels too greedy (and too influenced by the fantastic series we saw recently in 2011 and 2014). There were two ninth inning comebacks, plus an eighth inning comeback. A 14 inning game, and a 12 inning game. Even though it lasted only 5 games total, and the Mets bats fell silent (they batted .193, and only .159 outside their Game 3 victory), I think this meets the minimum threshold for "good" series. If it was any better, like if the Mets had been the beneficiaries of one of those comebacks, it would have been damn good, borderline great. World Series can and often are much worse than this, in terms of competition and interest. By my count, since the introduction of the wild card, this one is no worse than 11th out of 21, and I could see an argument putting it a spot or two higher too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    1986 Game 6 was already tied when Buckner made his error, so the Red Sox could not have closed out anything at that point. (A lot of people forget that it was a wild pitch earlier in the at bat that brought home the tying run.) Given that, it's not far-fetched at all to say the two errors are comparable, in terms of WPA. (According to the article, Buckner's error was still bigger, probably owing to the fact that Murphy's came in the top of the 8th inning.) Also note that this is just looking at single-game WPA, not taking into account the series state -- obviously by that measure, most of the biggest plays in history happened in a game 6 or 7: http://grantland.com/features/mlb-win-percentage-added-world-series-championship-kirk-gibson-bobby-thomson-david-freese-mariano-rivera-yogi-berra/ Note this list still doesn't include Buckner's error.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the link. Agreed on the Twins, and it would be nice to see some baby steps toward that reorganization already (maybe TR up to president, with a new young GM he could work with for a few years and potentially hand over the reins if all goes well.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I forgot about Krivsky. They actually have 2 former GMs if you count Smith (I won't). I know St Peter is the business guy, but this org seems to rely way too much on TR for its baseball direction. There are always bad GMs, but how many teams have handed the keys to a guy with Smith's background? Then after having to take the keys away, leave a guy with Antony's background in the #2 spot? Didn't mean to spin this discussion toward the Twins, but man am I worried if/when TR has to step down again...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    What's that structure? Non-baseball president? Just curious. I would guess that number has been trending downward. Not just presidents, but more organizations seem to have multiple former or legit future GMs around the top, in addition to their current GM. How many other teams have both a St. Peter and a Rob Antony type in their top 3?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Ramos has a career 93 wRC+, and Suzuki's was 92 through the same age...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not all 30 year catchers are equal. Lucroy has a 109 career OPS+ entering his age 30 season, peak of 132 at age 28 (last year). Suzuki at the same age, 86 career OPS+ with a peak of 98 at age 23. Lucroy could have a relative falloff similar to Suzuki and still be a very worthwhile upgrade at the catcher position the next several years.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is saying a Bautista breakout is something you can predict reliably, but I also don't think it's fair to say he deserves absolutely no credit. If TR found him and had the coaches in place to facilitate his breakout, Encarnacion's breakout, a Devon Travis power surge (so far), a flukey breakout from a fringe guy like Colabello, and wisely gave contract extensions to Bautista and Encarnacion too, I'd sure as heck give TR some credit.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    We all grant that the Dickey trade has been bad, although d'Arnaud was actually acquired by AA in another trade. Plus d'Arnaud missed a good chunk of time this year, so I'm not quite sure swapping him for Martin is a negative on the ledger. The rest of the deal, yeah. But it does nothing to look at the bad deals without also considering the good ones. Obviously every team would be better off if you erase only the GM's worst moves, but the question is, what is the net effect? The Donaldson deal looks incredible so far. Anthony Gose for Devon Travis looks pretty spectacular too. Both Reyes deals seem like taking advantage of pretty good opportunities. Venturing beyond trades, he got a comp pick for Melky Cabrera to offset the one lost in signing Martin, and also got a comp pick (that turned out to be Marcus Stroman) for taking a chance and drafting a guy they failed to sign a few years back. Once you add in his scrap heap turnarounds, I think it's fair to conclude the Jays are better off with AA's moves.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    He was assistant GM when they acquired Bautista, and probably not a Rob Antony-style assistant GM. Plus, how is Bautista a complete aberration when they also achieved largely the same turnaround with Encarnacion? As well as on smaller scale, with Colabello, Valencia, Devon Travis, etc.? I think some of that "luck" is assembling a coaching staff to get those performances out of players too. For example, doesn't it feel like Arcia would be more likely to break out in Toronto than in Minnesota? Wouldn't you love Minnesota to have that kind of reputation for successful turnarounds?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    For as long and mostly successful as it is, Gardy's career has been one of the more insulated of the major managerial candidates. Same organization for 27 seasons, 11 as first base coach under just one manager and pitching coach the whole time, and then 13 as manager with just one pitching coach, mostly same coaching staff that hasn't worked much elsewhere... I would worry that Ron's probably not helping bring in the best coaching talent with his network.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's an interesting review, I think from 2011: http://www.ballparkratings.com/viewpark/n/Target_Field/f/Amenities (Emphasis mine) I don't like playing the Yankees, and I don't like keeping company with the Yankees in this regard either...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the link, that's a pretty good summary. Looking forward to some St. Peter feedback. On that thought, it would be nice to see a Twins stadium representative participate in relevant discussions here, Jack Goin-style, rather than just drop in to scrub stadium news leaks.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting to see the evolution of the "team president" position around the league. The days of Jerry Bell or Dave St Peter holding that title are fading fast!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Heat Death? Maybe they should have stayed in the air conditioned Dome...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Good question! While I don't know that'd root *against* the Twins, I think more and more I find myself rooting *for* entertainment first and foremost. Generally, that means close games, and close series, even though it increases the chances of an ultimate Twins defeat. An occasional blowout win is nice, of course, but I don't know that I would enjoy a World Series sweep as much as perhaps even a 7 game series loss. I doubt 1987 or 1991 would be as fondly remembered if the Cardinals or Braves had simply rolled over for us in 4 or 5 games. After a close series loss, like the Royals last year or the Rangers in 2011 etc., I could see the theoretical sweep win looking more attractive. Before my time, but I get the sense that the 1965 Twins series loss wasn't that disappointing by itself -- the more disappointing events were falling out of the race in '66 (a problem alleviated today by expanded playoffs), falling just short in '67, then getting swept out of the playoffs in '69 and '70.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like Zobrist wouldn't leave the team, but with quite a few conditions: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25356799/heres-ben-zobrists-world-series-plan-if-wife-goes-into-labor Personally, in that unlikely event, I'd just start Colon in his place, and roll with zero backup infielders. If a second unlikely event occurred and an infielder got hurt during Zobrist's absence, I'd think Alex Gordon could shift back to the infield for emergency duty for the remainder of that game, and the injured player could be replaced on the roster following the game. Will be moot if the Mets don't get their act together -- they've done practically nothing at the plate since Gordon's game tying HR in game 1.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I heard Zobrist's wife is very nearly due to give birth, and there are no leave exceptions during the postseason, so that explains the extra infielder Mondesi.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, they still have Dyson, he's a pretty good pinch runner. But he probably also profiles as a worthy defensive replacement for Rios too. (Heck, given the season Rios has had, Dyson has a case for starting over him.) And if you start Dyson, or insert him for defense in the late innings, it would still be nice to have Gore available if Perez or Morales reach base with an absolutely critical run. Dyson is also a viable pinch-hitting option once the series moves to NY.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    With Zobrist-Escobar-Moustakas starting, I am not sure why. If any of them get injured, you can make a mid-series replacement and add Mondesi then. Otherwise, you're not going to remove any of them when healthy, except maybe for a pinch runner in exceptional circumstances... which is why you carry Gore, who looks like the king of pinch running in exceptional circumstances right now. I love pinch runners in the playoffs (Jarvis Brown!) but I guess it probably won't matter much either way.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope it wasn't my misinterpreted sarcastic sentence that turned you off, I thought I was being reasonable and tried to clarify.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Dykstra does have a lot of missing money from those years... and his walk rate did increase in his first two Phillies seasons but so did his power, etc. I wonder how he allegedly blackmailed the umps with this information -- I imagine a very surprised catcher overhearing it as Dykstra stepped into the batter's box!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    "Realistically should have done better" is putting it mildly -- this has been an epic 13 season long beat-down. From http://m.mlb.com/news/article/144113494/yankees-continue-to-dominate-twins Add postseason and regular season, and that's a .264 winning percentage. They also note that "the Yankees appear most often on teams' "bottom" two list -- 11 times" so it's not just the Twins that struggle against them (I would be interested to see those teams and their records vs. NY), but nobody has struggled against anyone to the extent of the Twins vs the Yankees since 2002, which is especially bizarre given our generally solid regular season records during that time. Also note that during our 2002-2010 run, both Detroit and Cleveland dispatched the Yankees in playoff series, and additionally the White Sox beat the Angels immediately after the Angels dispatched the Yankees.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    They certainly battled, many times I thought they'd finally fold up but they managed to hang in there almost to the very end. The two Yankees series and the season finale Royals series followed a bit of a predictable pattern though. Going into the year, I actually thought a losing season would be fine as long as the team actually followed through on a good showing against the Yankees. Admittedly hard to do in any given single season, but it didn't happen this year for whatever reason.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it speaks to their priorities. Especially after they specifically censored the bar news leak here last Friday to protect their own official announcement of it Monday, that suggests "new bar" is a lot more important to them than it is to many of us.
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