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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Plouffe's value is probably a function of demand as much as anything. Saying he's got 2 years of control is great, but if not a lot of teams are in the market for a 3B right now, or willing to pay much for a 3B, it doesn't matter. And I don't think the 2016 Twins are better off simply selling Plouffe for whatever we can get this winter.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Palka's not a catcher. OF/1B.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't mean he was progressing slowly, just that he wasn't young for the level.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Fine deal, but keep in mind he was a 23 (now 24) year old in the hitters paradise California League.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    His newborn's middle name is Royal -- I suspect he re-signs with KC.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    TR mentions the possibility of spot starts at 3B for Park, although he is viewed as primarily a DH: http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_29092466/twins-win-negotiating-bid-korean-1b-byung-ho
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    If Plouffe is likely to make roughly half of $16 mil AAV on the open market in 2 years with no comp pick attached, then why do you think his trade value would be very high now, or appreciably lower next winter? Sounds like he just isn't worth that much, period, which means you're probably not getting many great trade offers and your best course of action might simply be to hold on to him for the time being.. Not a lot of guys with that FA profile get dealt early, or if they do, the return is modest. What did Freese fetch a couple years ago? Bourjous?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Wright is basically their Mayer, he's not getting dealt. And he actually is still pretty good, 2.7 bWAR in a down offensive year in 2014, and 128 OPS+ coming back from injury in 2015. In fact, his injury/medical situation is so unusual, there is a good chance he eventually retires early and/or insurance picks up a large tab. But they are hoping that won't be necessary for a few years, and there is zero percent chance they deal him and replace him with Plouffe this offseason.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This is quite possible to dismiss, I just did. . Seriously, that trade idea is so nuts for SD, it boggles the mind how often it gets repeated around here.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Those Cubans are usually quite young and/or have had a long layoff.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yankees are committed to Headley, and the Mets are VERY committed to Wright.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, though, MLBTR didn't list the Twins among his potential matches: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/2015-16-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html That could make for a revised estimate.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if this what you meant, but Plouffe is gone after two more years (eligible for FA following the 2017 season). I'm not sure his value is that much more now that it will be next winter. (Of course, I don't think his value is as high as some folks here do, owing largely to demand.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that you also commented on that same poster's suggestion back in June, in case that is what you were thinking of. Plouffe does't beat them by raw fWAR -- Lowrie and Valbuena combined for 7, versus Plouffe's 6.1. Plouffe does beat them in bWAR, although Lowrie logged most of his innings at short and DRS didn't care for his defense there. Of course, Plouffe has a WAR per PA advantage, but it's slight (roughly half a win over a full season) and almost all due to defense, further muddied by some positional differences (Valbuena and Lowrie haven't had anywhere near Plouffe's ample opportunity to become a competent defensive third baseman). Valbuena actually has more Rbat than Plouffe, in fewer PA the last two seasons. As you say, they have issues at first, probably in the outfield and catcher too, and most teams have some kind of issues on their pitching staff. I would be shocked if a speculative half-win defensive upgrade at third base would be any kind of priority for them. Which is probably why I can't find any such suggestion anywhere, except by one commenter at one site.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Covered in depth in recent various Plouffe and catching threads. Short answer: a Brewers team dealing Lucroy is entering serious rebuild mode, and having Plouffe the next two seasons is probably pretty meaningless for such a team.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, it doesn't much matter. If they sign Park and don't protect the next Gilmartin, there are still 39 other guys they are preferring to protect over Gilmartin too. A quick glance suggests names like Achter, Darnell, O'Rourke, Tonkin, Herrmann, Pinto, and Nunez probably need to go before we're down to Park being a questionable 40-man addition for Rule 5 purposes. (And that's not even counting Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Graham, Fien, and Pressly, who still have some potential but hardly have locks on future 40 man usefulness.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure it would matter. Any guys you remove from the 40-man at that point will be available as a simple waiver claim, which is much easier than acquiring them by Rule 5 because it wouldn't have the 25-man roster restriction. Also, any prospects you protect now for Rule 5 can't be removed from the 40-man until next March, I think (so teams can't just protect guys for Rule 5 and remove them immediately after, although the waiver process mentioned about should be enough of a deterrent). Either way, the debate shouldn't be "Park vs. prospect", it should be "current fringe 40-man guys vs. prospects".
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope nobody is digging out trade proposals from the comments section here. Searching the site, I found only one other mention of it, from June, by the exact same commenter, suggesting it is an extreme minority opinion: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/7/27/9053813/trade-target-trevor-plouffe Seriously, I have no idea why the Astros would pursue Plouffe in trade, for perhaps their #1 org prospect, with Valbuena and Lowrie under contract and producing at a roughly similar rate, unless they can flip Valbuena or Lowrie as part of a bigger upgrade at another position.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I figured there was a way to do that at Fangraphs!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Careful, that fWAR list is actually the total stats of the players that qualify as 3B for that team, not just the stats of each team's starting 3B. Notice the Twins have 842 PA, and the Red Sox only 563, the Diamondbacks 1228. See my B-Ref link above for a more accurate look. Still, with your list, while in theory these teams could benefit from Plouffe, few of them are likely to seek him. Red Sox -- Sandoval under contract, Holt and Shaw as potential internal replacements DBacks -- Jake Lamb had better WAR/PA than Plouffe (all of their negative 3B WAR comes from Yasmany Tomas) Yankees -- Headley doesn't profile much different than Plouffe Padres -- given the position full-time, Solarte might not be much different than Plouffe Cleveland -- did pick up Chris Johnson late in the season, also Urshella was their #7 preseason prospect Angels -- declined QO for Freese who isn't much different than Plouffe Astros -- Valbuena/Lowrie produced close to Plouffe Nationals -- Escobar produced close to Plouffe Your best bet is probably Cleveland, who is in our division -- they'll probably prefer to sign Freese or Uribe or deal for a Valbuena/Lowrie type before they give us good value for Plouffe.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Great point. Here you can see 2015 positional WAR by team: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2015 Twins are 14th, but within 0.1 of 17th. Teams below 17th: WSN LAA PHI ATL ARI SDP NYM NYY DET CLE CHW MIL BOS Just not a lot of good matches in this group. I am sure plenty of teams would take Plouffe off our hands if we're selling, but we're not necessarily going to get great value or our preferred positional return (i.e. a catcher or prospects to flip for a catcher).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Missed marketing opportunity: Park's former team in Korea was the "LG Twins". Sadly they traded him in 2011 before he became good (hey -- sounds like our USA Twins!)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I read that Park actually played (or at least practiced) some at 3B in 2015. I have no idea if that would be part of the Twins calculus here, probably not and I hope not...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    But Gardenhire's experience is only with small-market hardware stores: http://puckettspond.com/2012/03/06/the-best-actually-worst-twins-radio-commercials/
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Freese isn't a "true" third baseman? Positive UZR I'd be wary of that strict of a qualifier. Positive UZR his last 2 seasons and 4 of his last 5, basically average DRS for 3 of his last 5 seasons too. Juan Uribe is a older, but he has a 114 OPS+ and average or better third base defense the past three years too. It's a thin market, for sure, but when the Brewers, Braves, Padres, and White Sox rank among the top teams with 3B needs, it doesn't necessarily mean the 3B available are going to see massive spikes in value (as evidenced by the Freese non-tender).
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