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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to Sparky and the DH, I stumbled upon this at Wikipedia, referencing a game just before the Twins-Tigers series in 1987: That was the last Toronto victory of the 1987 season. It put the Tigers 3.5 games back with 8 to play -- and they wound up finishing in first, 2 games ahead, thanks to the Blue Jays 7 game losing streak!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They would only lose the DH if they moved Herndon to a defensive position. Grubb, Heath, Madlock, and Morrison would have still been on the bench when Morris pinch-ran. Morris also had 2 pinch running appearances during the 1987 season, and 7 in 1983 and 8 in 1980! But only one other pinch running appearance outside those 3 seasons that I can identify (1979) from B-Ref (although it wouldn't surprise me if those records weren't complete). The Tigers did lose the DH late in Game 2 that series, with starting catcher Mike Heath being removed for pinch hitter Johnny Grubb, and DH Matt Nokes shifting to catcher in the 8th inning. Interestingly, since no relief pitcher was used, starter Jack Morris was simply inserted into the lineup in Heath/Grubb's spot in the middle of the 8th inning (and did not wind up taking a turn at bat).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Arcia could become/resume being a useful batter and still not have any value, particularly given the Twins roster. I don't think anyone is crazy about Zunino, but he's a catching alternative that the Twins would actually be willing to play behind the dish. Remember he was also super-rushed to MLB by Seattle, he debuted in MLB almost exactly a year after being drafted, and despite his struggles at the plate, he has only spent 15 games in the minors since then. Fortunately, I think that also means he has 2 option years remaining, which would give us some flexibility to try to fix him.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Jesus?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    According to Fangraphs, he hit 16 of his 28 HR that year to the opposite field: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=4.9 Not exactly a recipe for sustaining that level of power. (Surprisingly, he did almost equal that opposite field ISO/wRC+ rate performance in 2013, although fueled by more doubles over fewer balls in play, due to more strikeouts.) Mauer actually had as many pull HR in 2009 (5) as he did in 2015. Upon moving to Target Field in 2010, his pull ISO and wRC+ actually improved a hair over 2009. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=4.7
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Morneau was a month away from free agency (and a $8 mil AAV pay cut) when he was traded. It would have been almost unprecedented for a team to extend such a player before his contract was up, and even re-signing him that winter seemed unlikely, simply due to pride (guys tend not to re-sign with the same team for a huge pay cut). And Mauer was still on pace to catch 100 games in 2013 when he got the concussion just days before the Morneau trade. It wasn't at all clear yet that he needed to move to 1B full time.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Prospects just aren't that predictable, especially pitchers, and especially with zero MLB experience. Even at Berrios' level, 60% of such prospects falling short of Gray's MLB production to date seems reasonable, if anything a tad on the low side. They are still valuable assets, but if the future success of such prospects was any more certain than that, they would be insanely valuable assets, and you'd see a radically different market around them. That said, I like Berrios, our current SP group, and the FA SP market enough that I'd pass on this proposed deal too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I meant the latter, I thought that was clear? You don't decline to pay someone an amount by offering to pay them that amount... And I only meant it in terms of salary inflation. If you are in the market for a frontline starter, and you can get one today for the same price as one 8 years ago, it's probably not a bad deal. (Given that you are correctly identifying which guys are the frontline starters, of course, not forcing Zito-like deals.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Good question. The tricky thing for Cueto is I see four clear "aces" (assuming Greinke opts out). While they will all certainly get paid, I am not sure the market can support four Scherzer-type contracts in one offseason. I could see one or two of these guys getting 7-year Scherzer type money, and the others having to field 5-6 year Lee/Lester type offers.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Morneau's own injury and 3 "meh" seasons at high salary were pretty much 100% responsible for the Twins not re-signing him. The DH spot was also still wide open for either player if the Twins wanted to keep both for 2014.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The key isn't just trying to sign him longer, it's to sign him earlier. The Twins didn't ink him for 4/33 until Mauer already had a ton of leverage, having just won a batting title and guaranteed at least a $3.3 mil arbitration award. Maybe the Twins tried to lock him up earlier, but all the evidence we have suggests otherwise -- the length and timing of Joe's deal is virtually identical to that of Milton, Guzman, Mays, Radke, Hunter, and Santana. Despite Target Field getting approved in 2005, they didn't begin committing any of their future windfall to players until at least 2008. I believe the Twins approached Joe with a Metrodome-era-budget mindset, and it doesn't take hindsight to suggest that was the wrong approach.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    His April 2014 performance is surprisingly similar to his 2015 Toronto performance, in K%, BB%, ISO, and BABIP. However, I do recall he wasn't pulling the ball with much authority in April 2014. This year, pulled balls in play has been his best split for the Jays (6 HR, 1.000 SLG in 42 AB). Healthy, I think he probably would have settled in around a league-average bat for us. There's a lot of Blue Jays magic at play here, they really seem to get the best out of sluggers. I wonder what they could do with a healthy Arcia?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately he still isn't arbitration eligible this winter, by my count about 55 days short. Hopefully the Jays give him a bit of a raise regardless, but I don't see him getting a multi-year deal.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Guerrier was a waiver claim. That list was compiled over 20 years, back to when Rule 5 and draft compensation rules were different. Ortiz was going to be Rule 5 eligible a year earlier than he would now. When we dealt Greg Swindell, he returned draft pick compensation to Boston a few months later. And with only 12 guys on your list, over 20 years, you're still reaching down to the Ford/Casilla level of useful spare parts for a couple seasons. Plus 5 of those guys came directly or indirectly thanks to the trade of a 29 year old star as we were slashing payroll preparing for a franchise sale/move/contraction -- think TR will get that opportunity again?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Gray is only controlled the next 4 seasons. I agree those frontline guys will get $20 mil AAV, for 5-7 years, but that's still within the Twins means. Heck, 6/138 was what we declined to pay Johan Santana 8 years ago in the Metrodome -- if the bidding for a current frontline guy is anywhere around that now, we can afford to be players if we really want to land a frontline guy this offseason.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. That's one of the more realistic Arcia trade proposals I've seen. Not sure if we're the team to reform Zunino's strikeout ways, but I think I might endorse that move too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No modern FA SP contract has been for 8 years except Mike Hampton way back in 2001. 6-7 years seems to be the max. 5 year is not impossible under the right circumstances (Cliff Lee). I don't think two 7 year FA SP contracts have ever been handed out in the same offseason. With Greinke, Price, Zimmermann, and Cueto, I suspect someone is going to have to consider 5 year offers. There is an interesting lower tier of pitchers this winter too (like Samardzija) which might depress the market of the elites a little more. Not that we'll get a steal or a bargain in FA, but the bidding may well be in a range that we find reasonable. In 3 years, Mauer's $23 mil AAV comes off the books, Nolasco/Santana's combined $25 mil expires, after a 4th year, Hughes' $13 mil will be gone. They are at absolutely no risk of not being able to afford their up-and-coming players in arbitration, even with another big 6-7 FA contract now. In fact, I'd guess they'd even still have the flexibility to add another major FA in the next few years if they wanted.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally root for the underdog, and the Cubs are definitely a historical underdog, but their losing ways are one of the strongest constants in this sporting world. I don't want to lose Cubs jokes, Back to the Future references, etc. We all saw what happened when the Red Sox finally won, they quickly became almost as insufferable as the Yankees. Let's keep the Cubs the "Cubs". I hope they lose in extraordinarily interesting fashion.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure how the Rays screwed up. Maddon had an opt out in the contract, almost certainly at his or his agent's request (teams generally don't advocate for them), and he exercised it.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know the Japanese game, but a "malicious contact" rule already exists in the US, at least at the high school level that I am familiar with. Slide into the base and you're fine, even if you contact the fielder. Hasn't caused any confusion or controversy that I am aware of. Pretty simple really, especially compared to the new MLB home plate collision rules (which have also been implemented pretty seamlessly).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Acually, yeah. I know the Twins aren't likely to pursue that option, but if they really want to add a frontline SP this winter, FA would be the way to go unless they can swing a more favorable Donaldson-type trade for Gray. There are a number of good candidates, some of whom will probably settle for 5-6 year deals which will expire before Sano, Buxton, Berrios, etc. hit free agency (and Mauer's deal should expire before they even reach arbitration).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Using RA9-WAR, the K/9 leading rotations that you noted ranked 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, and 28. Using ERA- as I used, 2, 6, 8, 10, 12, 25 By either measure, they were 5 good starting staffs plus the Padres. What you claimed offered a better correlation with success than K/9 was BB/9. The top 6 teams in BB/9 for 2015 ranked 2, 3, 7, 8, 13, 14 in RA9-WAR. Outside the Padres (who had some notable defensive issues), that's not a materially different correlation than that of K/9. How about BB/9 in 2014? The Twins starters ranked 6th in MLB, and 30th (dead last) in RA9-WAR.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure why, but Fangraphs only shows 33 recorded pitches for Blackburn, total, under the PitchF/X tab. So I wouldn't exactly trust those speed readings.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That's an interesting one! Sure would be hard to turn down Gray, although his K rate isn't that high and I'm a little nervous about pitchers leaving Oakland. On the flip side, if I'm Oakland, I might also like that deal.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. It was pretty clear from the get-go that Mauer was both a budding superstar and a likely Twin for life. I think you can absolutely make a case they should have been more aggressive in locking him up longer and earlier, especially once he returned from his knee injury and Target Field funding was secured in May 2005. Now, maybe Mauer wasn't willing to sign earlier or longer, but given TR's established conservatism and his similar 4-year contract terms from that era (Santana, Hunter, Mays, Guzman, Milton, Radke), I'm inclined to think that TR and the Twins didn't approach Mauer as aggressively as they could have.
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