Otto von Ballpark

Actually, it was two years ago (after 2013) that the Twins added Kepler to the 40-man. Kepler was even more raw at that time, but he would have been a little easier to hide than Walker, given he has pro experience in all 3 outfield spots plus first base. Plus he was only 20 years old at the time -- the opportunity to get a young guy with upside like that is rare enough to often be a Rule 5 risk worth taking. Walker turns 24 this month, so even with some potential and upside he's in a much broader bucket of talent. Still, I have no real issue with protecting Walker today, Kepler in 2013, or other borderline Rule 5 eligibles we want to see some more. The issue is usually protecting/re-signing guys like Schafer, Fryer, and Thompson at the expense of guys like Gilmartin or another selection in Rule 5.

I hope they provide some compelling postseason games, but ultimately I think I want the Cubs to fall short again. Now that they Red Sox have broken through, the Cubs underdog status is one of the few constants left in the baseball universe.

Toronto is a major media centre, but ESPN prefers major media centers. Actually I don't know why ESPN was brought up, I doubt they really care -- they don't broadcast any postseason games after the AL Wild Card anyway. FOX would be the ones affected, but by this point, I would hope they aren't too hung up on ratings. Even the Red Sox in 2013 didn't provide much of a ratings boost. Far more important now seems to be getting a 6 or 7 game series. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_television_ratings#Television_ratings_by_year.2C_1984_.E2.80.93_present

Clemens was there by 1999. I guess the 1995-1997 teams were good but pretty innocuous, ALDS losses to the Mariners and Indians plus a reasonably competitive World Series win over the Braves. Plus Seinfeld appearances which were fun. But 1998, the year Seinfeld ended, they acquired Knoblauch and steamrolled the league, I think they firmly moved back into "team to hate" territory.

Hard to hate the late 90's Yankees? That's when I learned to hate them. When I was growing up, I learned they were a historical powerhouse but they were very much a bumbling, stumbling big market mess under Steinbrenner in the 1980's. Interesting but benign. But by 1998-2000, 3 straight World Series, 12-1 W-L record in them... very boring for a fan looking for some compelling baseball action outside the local 9. In college, I remember celebrating the Diamondbacks win over the Yankees in 2001 as if the local team had done it, even though most of us couldn't have identified the Diamondbacks before that and probably haven't thought about them since. Actually, the Gardy-era domination has probably shifted my Yankee hate more toward frustration, often directed at the Twins, although anti-Yankees is still my #1 non-Twins rooting interest.

Only if we can move Morneau back to catcher.

The AFL roster suggests they will protect Walker. And it's not necessarily a bad move for the Twins -- our Rule 5 eligible list isn't that deep or great anymore, it guarantees you can work with him a bit more, and you can still cut him anytime you want after March -- but that still doesn't mean he's all that likely to be selected by another team in Rule 5. He had a pretty brutal second half, he might need some work just to become a "AAAA" slugger much less a MLB asset. Not sure if teams would really be lining up to pick him.

In modern MLB, it's easier to hide players at the back of the bullpen than it is on the bench. Most teams have a max of 3-4 non-catcher bench spots available, which could be further reduced by platooning etc. Every team already has minor leaguers that could improve with some work, and they can do that work immediately because they don't require a 25-man roster spot for a season when they are clearly not ready. Just eyeballing the Phillies org, they probably have at least 3 OF who should be playing in MLB ahead of Walker right now, plus multiple OF prospects who should reach MLB in 2016. And getting a player "for free" in Rule 5, especially one you plan to bury on your bench, isn't without its costs. First, assuming you don't have any internal Rule 5 eligibles of your own worth protecting and developing further in the minor leagues, you will have one less roster spot to add a different Rule 5 guy, a waiver claim or nontender from another org, or even for a Marlon Byrd type free agent, who could be signed and potentially flipped at the deadline. Next, while you have Walker locked into a roster spot next season, you have one less 25-man spot to use for waiver claims, as well as evaluating your own players and Rule 5 eligibles next season. And finally, even after a lost season on the MLB bench, you have to protect Walker again next winter, potentially passing on more Rule 5 bets, potential FA flips, and/or leaving some of your own Rule 5 eligibles exposed, just to finally get a look at him in regular game action again in 2017. Now, all of the above costs can be outweighed by the right player, but it's awfully hard to balance it out when the player has a big glaring flaw to work on and will likely have to wait a full year before they can really work on correcting it. If it was as easy and fruitful as you suggest, I think we'd see significantly more players selected in the Rule 5 draft and sticking with their new teams. Position players getting the true "buried on the bench" treatment are particularly rare.

Their previous deal with FSN was 8 years and didn't even have exclusivity (~25 over the air games yearly). Why would we expect the current deal, exclusive to FSN, to be twice as long, at minimum, for a static yearly amount with no out clause? FSN didn't have THAT much leverage, where else were they going to find 150+ major sports events to broadcast every summer? 15 years would be the length of many of the multi-billion dollar deals, without the money benefit. 30 years would be downright insane.

Do you mean those as Adam Walker Rule 5 comparables? Hamilton was the #1 overall pick and #1 overall prospect before his missed seasons, and while a bit of an unknown quantity at the time of his selection, he wasn't coming off of a 35% K rate season either. Bautista was a third basemen, Bonilla mostly a first baseman at the time although later moved to third, and both he and Bonilla were a year younger than Walker (Rule 5 draft pool was larger back then), and neither had struck out in 35% of their plate appearances. Both actually had/have notably low K totals, often walking nearly as much as they strike out.

Given past Rule 5 draft results, we're more likely to lose a marginal reliever than a marginal corner OF.

Yup, and like Trevor May in 2014, Buxton only spent about 20 healthy days on the active roster during the time of the 25 player limit in 2015, well short of the 45 day requirement to lose rookie status by that method. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp

By WAR, Sano basically equalled Rosario in 2015, despite playing only half the season AND getting a positional DH penalty during that time. Sano accumulated batting runs (Rbat) at basically an equal or higher rate than anyone in the league with that level of playing time not named Trout, Cabrera, Cruz, or Donaldson. Plus, like the Escobar SS decision, much of Sano's lower playing time was out of his control. If Sano had simply been called up on June 8 like Correa, that would have cut the Rosario-Sano games played gap in half. I don't like to reward really small sample guys, like Brett Lawrie 2011, but I think half a season is past that threshold.

Not at the MLB level. You think Adam Walker, striking out 35% of the time against AA pitchers, is a strategic weapon against even average MLB relievers right now? Not to mention, teams aren't using the Rule 5 draft on speculative pinch hitters.

With advancement on the line, not a chance. Did you see the Twins-Yankees series in July and August? Regardless of personnel, not a thing has changed in attitude between these two clubs since 2002. Since then, in addition to last night, the Yankees have been beaten in playoff series by the following teams: Detroit (3 times) Texas Cleveland Boston Anaheim (twice) Florida (And even our division mates the White Sox beat Anaheim after Anaheim beat the Yankees.) But 4-0 in series (and 12-2 in games) against the Twins...

To be fair, the Dodgers in particular, and to a lesser extent the Mets, could have aggressively tried to match those records if they had to. Maybe the Pirates and Cubs don't get to those win totals if they aren't the only teams with a huge incentive to catch the Cardinals. Unless you abolish divisions and adopt a balanced schedule, you're not going to find a system that on balance is any more "fair" than the current one.

But the choice right now isn't Walker on the Twins 40-man or someone else's 40-man. The choice is Walker on the Twins 40-man or someone else's 25-man for the entire 2016 MLB season. If Walker is considered anywhere near the boundary of 40-man protection, it should be noted that corner OFs are very rare Rule 5 picks, especially those who have yet to even appear in AAA. I only found one such player in the Rule 5 draft results dating back to 1997 (Jason DuBois, 27th of 28 picks in 2002, would be ineligible under current Rule 5 rules, returned to his original organization that spring): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft#Notable_Rule_5_draftees EDIT: Coke to 70charger, knew I should have refreshed before posting!

In terms of arbitration, MLBTR just released their estimates: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2016.html

Not quite sure about that. He's been good, no doubt, but Teixeira probably tops A-Rod's contributions even with time lost to injury, although he's out right now too. Considering position and defense, I think Gardner and McCann have rivaled A-Rod's contributions as well. Betances has been pretty darn valuable for them too (as has Miller, plus Tanaka and Warren in the innings they've pitched).

No rooting interest? When the Yankees are involved? I actually like the current wild-card format. Incentivizes winning a division, and guarantees two win-or-go-home games every year regardless of how the regular season or postseason shakes out. (Aside from brief moments, MLB postseasons were largely boring affairs from 2004-2010.)

I think the top end solution can come internally (and that's the likely route for the Twins to attempt). But yeah, TR's future/legacy probably depends a lot on that bet.

True, but Dave only calls for a World Series appearance, not necessarily a win. So that's two GMs a year. Looked at another way, every year there are 7 postseason series victories (not counting the wild card game). 21 seasons since TR took the helm, so 147 postseason series victories, or an average of 4.9 per franchise. TR has one in that time. 8 franchises have zero or one playoff series win (again not counting the wild card game) since they expanded in 1995. Jays, Cubs, and/or Pirates have a chance to leave that group this year, but otherwise it's a group that generally (and oftentimes rightfully) gets picked on a lot: CHC CIN MIL MIN OAK PIT TOR WSN I think it's fair to ask the Twins to leave this group within the next 4 years.

I think Dave's expectations for the Twins are about right. Long story short, I think they need to achieve the playoff success that eluded them from 2002-2010, and a 4 year window for that goal starting now sounds about right.

I've seen $100+ million as Chris Davis' projected contract...

Hicks is a great choice, as evidenced by his near-unananimous selection. Gibson was improved too, although less dramatically than Hicks. Milone obviously improved over his brief 2014 Twins debut, although his actual 2015 performance was more or less in line with his Oakland career. Pelfrey obviously deserves some recognition for his injury comeback, although interestingly his rate stats (including innings per start) and FIP were pretty much identical to his 2013 Twins season. But he finally got his run prevention to be a rough match for his peripherals, as he did in 2 of his 4 full Mets seasons too.