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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Ventura might be their ALDS game 1 starter, with Cueto following in game 2.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Royals still have something to play for too. They are tied with Toronto for home field, although they lose a head to head tiebreaker. Toronto's magic number for home field is 3, hopefully it is down to 1 by the end of the night Friday...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules Three-Club Tie for Division Championship & Tie with Club Outside Division For One Wild Card Spot: After Clubs have been assigned their A, B, C and D designations (In this case, Club D would be the Club outside the Division), Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D. 1. If Club D wins, it would be declared the Wild Card Club and the winner of the game between Club A and Club B would be declared the Division Champion. 2. If Club C wins, then the winner of the game between Club A and Club B would host Club C. The winner of the game would be declared the Division Champion and the loser would be declared the Wild Card Club.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Was May or another good reliever warming up earlier in the second, when the score was still 0-0, 1-0, or even 2-0? Or Hughes, our best long option? Seriously, I don't know. But I get the impression that Molitor is not going to bring in good arms early, which is a much bigger obstacle than simply getting the starters out early. Even when Pelfrey was removed, it was only 4-0 in the second, hardly a time to give up on the game by going with Graham (especially when some suggest in other threads that the 8th inning 2 out intentional walk down 6 runs had some strategic value in pursuit of victory).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Relative to all discussions about sports, I'm not sure if this one seems particularly trivial.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    As you pointed out, the Twins clearly walked Kipnis because Ramirez is a much worse hitter. I don't necessarily think it was stupid, but the context made it abundantly clear that the Twins had a low estimation of Ramirez's abilities. That's not "personal" in a personality sense, but I think it's pretty common for professional athletes to feel slighted by that kind of obvious negative judgement. And when that player immediately hits a home run, suggesting the Twins judgement was wrong, you can't really be surprised if he wants to rub it our face. I don't really like Ramirez's display there, but it's a little too common among pro athletes for me to label him as "stupid", and there's no honest way for his fellow pro athletes on the Twins to claim surprise at it as a high-road justification for their own boorish display (which hopefully ends there).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point, I forgot about the Yankees. Same record as the Rangers right now, and they have a similarly straightforward path to the postseason: any combination of two wins or Astros and Angels losses. That would actually be a more messy 4-way tie too, since no division title would be at stake, it would be guaranteed to cover two days.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't matter how quickly you go to the pen if your first two options are going to Graham and Duensing for multiple innings each.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh, you'd think Kipnis would have more than 6 IBB's this year if that was the case. Fortunately, since it has been so infrequent, it's easy to review those occurrences. All 5 previous times Kipnis was intentionally walked in 2015, a runner had just reached second base immediately prior to Kipnis's plate appearance (actually twice on wild pitches during Kipnis's at-bat). Four of those times, the run differential was 2 or less at the time of the intentional walk. The Indians starting lineup has featured Ramirez batting behind Kipnis 14 times season, and another 10 times with Aviles (.600 OPS) behind Kipnis, but not once had Kipnis been intentionally walked to bring up either Ramirez or Aviles. Twice each Santana and Lindor, and once Yan Gomes. I think you're over-rating the number of "automatic" intentional walks without a pitcher due up.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, in the Twins comeback against Detroit, they were only down 5 in the 9th, although they ultimately scored 7 runs that inning.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually a 4 team tie may not necessarily result in two nights of games, depending on who wins the first games. A 3 team tiebreaker is guaranteed to have two nights of games. I don't think MLB is too concerned about tiebreaker fairness, especially when it is primarily head-to-head record. Remember, they flipped a coin instead of using head-to-head record to decide home field advantage as recently as 2008. I think MLB would like to avoid ties that disrupt their scheduling. Complex tiebreaker games may not actually be "do or die" and would make it harder for MLB to schedule and promote the two wild card games that are guaranteed "do or die" contests, not to mention the larger postseason. My guess is MLB would prefer simple two team tiebreakers.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Ramirez is actually an interesting player. Just turned 23 years old, but he debuted in MLB at age 20. .304 average in the minors in mostly pitcher's leagues, and not a BABIP fluke (very few strikeouts), and what looks like developing power. 120 wRC+ at AAA according to Fangraphs. Still a rough bat in MLB but good versatile glove and baserunning, worth 3.4 WAR at B-Ref in 621 career MLB PA so far. Only 5'9" tall. I could see him having a chip on his shoulder about being pegged as a non-prospect by many despite his performance and now a "futility infielder".
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, you ignore that there were 2 outs, a 6 run deficit, the runner at second for the previous two batters (both of whom struck out), a switch hitter due up (with an earlier double off another RHP), and a pitcher effectively rehabbing on the mound. Kipnis is a nice player, but you don't normally intentionally walk him in that scenario unless you think very little of the batter behind him. Once that is established, I think it makes sense that the batter would feel slighted, and especially excited by an outcome that runs counter to the opposing team's judgment of him. It can still be a jerk display, and the Twins are welcome to respond in kind (although I'd stop short of throwing at batters, ever), but acting like the kid is an idiot completely ignores the context of the play.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    There's nothing remotely "self defense" related about throwing a pitch at a batter, or spanking a child.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Ramirez is a switch hitter, so it wasn't really for platoon reasons. And the defensive position of Kipnis is completely irrelevant in that situation. In fact, the most telling thing was that we brought in Nolasco to pitch for the first time at any level in almost 4 months. That's not something you do when you want to aggressively hold a 6-7 run deficit for the last 2 innings of a game. That's something you do when you recognize a game is out of reach and you want to get a look at a guy and hopefully have him soak up a couple innings. Edit to clarify, I also don't think it was a personal jab at Ramirez, but Ramirez probably felt slighted as would many pro athletes in that situation. Probably just as slighted as the Twins dugout felt by the bat flip when down by 9 runs.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It was a different era, but Berenguer actually did start 6 games in that 1987 season, and topped 100 innings (at roughly 2 IP/G average) in each of his four seasons in Minnesota. I have to imagine he was next in line for a start if needed that postseason, and his usage/leash would have resembled more of a regular starter than any of the Twins current relievers.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios almost certainly would have improved the results. Even if his only appearance was the August 14 spot start and he lost it, Trevor May probably wins us at least a game staying in the pen that week. Any other benefit from Berrios would have been icing on the cake (and there was more potential benefit, most easily in the form of just being the first man out of the pen in close games ahead of Achter and Graham, not to mention other starts or even possibly forcing his way into later inning appearances).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you write this without mentioning Berrios? That's the biggest "what if" for me, and it's notable because it doesn't require hindsight, better health, a trade partner, unforeseeable circumstances, or anything really. He was right there, in the face of an obvious need on August 1st, ready and presumably very willing to be promoted or at least managed with an eye toward a later promotion.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Still, when you are willing to give Pelfrey that level of leash, and the first guys up out of the pen are Graham and Duensing to pitch in multiple innings each, and our offense was silent and/or the other team's pitchers cruising, I don't think you can point to one play like that as a real difference-maker. You can make a good argument that Pelfrey should have been pulled before Lindor's plate appearance, and certainly after with 2 runners on and Carlos Santana due up. Could have gone with a higher-leverage arm like May to try getting out of the jam and maybe pitch another inning, and then let Hughes start an inning fresh as a "second starter" if you will. An out call there probably just means the trouble is shifted to the third inning from the second, but the same basic problems remained for the Twins.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    According to this tool, an out on that play would have reduced their chance by about 5%. http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.0.1.0.1
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately, with Trevor May's back, I don't think he's an option to go 3 innings right now. I could see a Pelfrey start, with an extremely quick hook (probably should have been in place last night, with Hughes and Nolasco ready for long relief).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB has to be relieved that there is no longer the chance for a 4-way tie! The only outcome that brings the Rangers down to the Twins would also vault the Angels above both teams. Still a chance for a 3-way tie for the 2nd wild card, or a 2-way tie for the west division, with the tiebreaker loser also tied for the 2nd wild card.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    IF the Twins win out, they have pretty good odds. The problem is, winning out is pretty low odds to begin with. As the original poster said, if the Twins go 4-0, we will be tied or ahead of one of the Angels or Rangers. That forces a game 163 as long as the Astros fail to win out (at least 1 loss). We still (almost) control our own destiny! Go Twins! Go Diamondbacks!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    To me, it looks like Ramirez is looking out to field the whole time, not into the dugout. He carried the bat with him at the beginning of his trot, by the time he flipped it he would have been near the middle of the Twins dugout and would have had to turn his head almost completely to the side to look in there. I think the direction of the bat flip and the height of the flip are what angered the Twins. And I am no lip-reader, but Suzuki's profanity is clearly evident.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Probable starters, according to ESPN: Twins - Indians/Royals Duffey (5-1) Bauer (11-12) Santana (7-4) Young (11-6) Milone (9-5) Ventura* (12-8) TBA (Gibson?) Cueto* (10-13) * will be pulled early, I imagine Astros - Diamondbacks Keuchel (19-8) De La Rosa (14-8) McHugh (18-7) Hellickson (9-11) McCullers (6-7) Ray (5-12) Angels - Rangers Heaney (6-3) Holland (3-3) Weaver (7-12) Perez (3-6) Santiago (9-9) Lewis (17-9) Tropeano (3-2) Hamels (12-8) (probably not Hamels, assuming they clinch division before Sunday)
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