Otto von Ballpark
-
Posts
20,669 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
74
Content Type
Profiles
Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
-
Will Miguel Sano become a superstar?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Turd Furgeson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It's not even as if Vargas was part of the good vibes from the winning month of May, in fact he was benched then demoted in the first half of that month. Then recalled on June 8, the exact same day that Carlos Correa debuted. I am not one of those discussing 600 vs 700 career HR for Sano here, but it is pretty clear he is in Correa's class as a young impact player in MLB, and probably was on June 8th too. -
Will Miguel Sano become a superstar?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Turd Furgeson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Maybe so. But Sano is SO GOOD, and Vargas (God bless him) so meh. Why wasn't Sano up in June? Presumably the rust was off. How often do you see a guy this well regarded, and this immediately impactful, kept on the sidelines until July? -
Yes, so between that and Nolasco, those are two flex spots to find useful players this September. I'd like to see Berrios considered.
-
There still could be as many as 3 weeks left in the MLB season when the AA playoffs are over for Chattanooga. I think you have to give him a cup of coffee at that point.
-
Will Miguel Sano become a superstar?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Turd Furgeson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Did we lose a win or two by waiting to call up Sano? We waited almost a month after the supposed Super 2 date passed, we didn't have a good record in June, and in particular I think our DHs during that time were rather uninspiring. Seeing how good Sano has been, and how many games he has single-handedly impacted, it makes you wonder why he wasn't simply a Super 2 callup just like Correa. If it was to give Vargas another shot, that seems an even worse decision than the Santana over Escobar decision around the same time... -
Also, since you are able to load up on relievers for your wild card game roster, I think that means getting a guy like Berrios on your 40-man as of Sep. 1 is more important now than pre-2012. If your starter gets knocked out early in that game, or it goes extras, do you want to be stuck relying on your normal guys to go multiple innings, or do you want the possibility of another good arm like Berrios available like Finnegan was last year? Also, being on the 40-man on Sep.1 would make Berrios eligible to replace any injured pitchers during the playoffs too, even if you didn't think there was a spot for him on your original playoff roster. Otherwise you might have to call on the likes of Tonkin, Achter, Thompson... (actually Meyer would be an interesting option too)
-
I think the guy you are replacing has to be on the DL as of Sep. 1, or on the 25 man roster on that date then on the DL as of October. So you could get some more flexibility by being more aggressive with your DL assignments just prior to Sep. 1. (Example, if we DL'ed Robinson before Sep. 1, come October we would have the option of either re-activating him or picking any other guy from the 40-man like Kepler, Arcia, etc.
-
Doesn't matter when the player goes on the DL, he can be replaced by anyone else on the 40-man come October. Basically, in October, anybody who is still on the DL gives you a "flex spot" to drop someone from your Sep. 1st 25-man and replace them with anyone on the 40-man (as of Sep. 1). So Nolasco will give us one such flex spot. Perhaps Boyer if he doesn't come back.
-
I am not assuming that at all. What I am saying is, it's worth finding out. If he comes up and struggles, and doesn't look like he's adjusting well, then shut him down. Small cost for a potentially nice benefit in 2015, given our current pitching staff. I am not assuming he won't tire or won't get hurt, any more than you are assuming he will. The Royals had an amazing bullpen last year. Do you think they regret adding Finnegan to the mix for September and October? I don't know if Berrios will react like May to a bullpen switch, but he's our best shot to add a few additional shutdown relief innings at this point. I think we might wind up kicking ourselves if we don't even try it. I doubt we'll wind up kicking ourselves over the lost 40-man spot over the winter and ~30 days MLB service time, if Berrios scuffles in a couple low-leverage appearances and then is shut down.
-
Berrios would have to be on the 40-man roster on Sep. 1st, though, to be eligible to be a postseason injury replacement. K Rod was added to the Angels' 40-man roster on August 31, 2002, although he wasn't promoted to the 25-man roster until mid-September.
-
I know the Pirates have been cited as a recent example of being cautious with young arms in a pennant race, but those were very different situations. 2012, Gerrit Cole. Cole was drafted in 2011 and did not pitch as a pro that year, only 15 innings in the AFL. So yeah, they probably wanted to cap him at around 132 innings across 3 levels in 2012. (And Cole scuffled some at AA that August, and only made one appearance at AAA to finish the season, so he was hardly comfortable yet at the highest level of the minors.) Glasnow is another one they appear to be holding back this season, although he has fewer pro innings than Berrios in the same number of pro seasons, and also had an ankle injury earlier this season (which I guess could mean he's further from his innings limit too, should they decide to call him up soon). And Cole and Glasnow were both more "elite" prospects than Berrios, for what it's worth. It's very hard to find guys comparable to Berrios experience, health, and level who were held back in a pennant race.
-
Look at what May is doing out of the pen for us now. Give Berrios a couple weeks and he could be a real weapon out there too, when we desperately need it. With nothing "lost" but a 40-man spot for a marginal player over the winter (there will be a few) and 30-40 days service time which could be easily recovered to begin 2016 anyway, I don't think you can hold back out of fear or precise service-time plotting.
-
I am sure all pitchers tire at some point. Right now, Berrios doesn't look tired at all. And if he's not likely to tire within the next 20 innings (the 20% increase over 2014) -- why not have them in MLB? You're letting fear rather than fact dictate your decision-making. If you've got an actual concern about the pitcher's health (Gibson scuffling at AAA in 2011, or even just blowing past the standard innings progression), then go ahead and shut him down. But with no evidence of elevated risk, and large potential benefits to a MLB pennant race, that's foolish. And if Berrios suffers a major injury within his next 40 pro innings (which is when many suggest he should be in MLB regardless, by the end of April 2016), the "lost" service time will be the least of the Twins concerns about him. Just look at the two oft-cited Twins examples -- Kubel in 2005 and Liriano in 2007. The injury itself affected their careers far more than the service time spent injured (and indeed, both were optioned after they were healthy anyway, recovering some service time).
-
The definition of "sunk cost" vs. "stunk cost"
Otto von Ballpark replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Other Baseball
Brock, is there any relevant baseball usage of the term "sunk cost", to you? -
I've read some warnings against using minor league FIP. I don't think it is as meaningful as MLB FIP. Especially in a small sample.
-
Agreed. Although to keep his innings limit, they should have him up in the pen now. Each start they give him in Rochester takes away from the innings he could log in MLB. It won't be a valid excuse to claim he's at his innings limit when the Rochester season ends, because it will have already been the Twins decision to let him log those innings in Rochester rather than the MLB pen (or spot starts).
-
Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man roster.
-
Great, but I wasn't arguing against an innings limit (which as your Cardinal example shows is very different than a shutdown). Severino was just a comparable prospect in this pennant race who isn't getting shut down. I think one might have trouble finding a prospect comparable to Berrios in health, level, and pro experience who got shut down in a pennant race.
-
Darnell will turn 27 years old this winter. He's on a nice little run as a starter, but his rate stats during it are basically the same as last year which got him converted to relief to begin 2015 anyway. (And his relief work seemingly left something to be desired, as he wasn't called up to help the MLB pen earlier this year.) Dean also turns 27 next May. His K/9 this year is Blackburn-esque, and his career line is more volatile than Blackburn's minor league line too.
-
Huh? St. Louis has been the poster child for using pitching prospects in the MLB pen. And Tampa, despite being one of the most frugal MLB organizations, has called up the following pitching prospects for September pennant races: 2008: David Price 2009: Wade Davis 2010: Jeremy Hellickson 2011: Matt Moore 2012: Chris Archer 2013: Jake Odorizzi Not sure what your point is here at all. Also, while the Yankees get a bad rep over the usage of Hughes and Chamberlain, I think the record suggests maybe those two weren't as destined for stardom as the hype machine had us believe. (And I'm not even suggesting the Twins use Berrios as the Yankees have pushed Severino -- all I am saying is don't shut him down.)
-
Nightengale Article: Clubhouse Chemistry
Otto von Ballpark replied to JB_Iowa's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Hunter was a free agent before 2013 too. I wonder what people would have said if he signed with us for 2013-2014 instead of Detroit. Hicks skipped AAA and looked mostly hopeless those years anyway, so perhaps no blame for Hunter? Arcia had encouraging seasons, Plouffe and Dozier had breakouts. Would Hunter have gotten credit for those? Maybe some credit for Escobar, Santana, and Vargas in 2014 too? Don't get me wrong, Hunter solidly filled a spot on this year's team, helped us score a couple wins in May which was the foundational month of our season success, but I am really not sure you can give him any credit for other player's performances. -
Service time considerations for pitchers are extremely speculative. Should the Twins have worried about service time with Liriano over 2005-2006? He got injured which suppressed his value anyway, and slow rehab meant they were able to option him and recover a good amount of service time. Also, barring injury the Twins are unlikely to change their MLB rotation 3 weeks into 2016. If Berrios starts in the minors for 2016, he will probably be down for 2 months. Which means you could still have that potential 7th year of control even if pitches out of the MLB pen this September.
-
This is Berrios' third full pro season. He's healthy and does not appear to be fatiguing in the least. I get gradual innings control, I don't understand the hurry to shut him down completely. Luis Severino has been ranked similarly to Berrios, is virtually the same age, had been pitching at the same levels the past two seasons, and had notably fewer innings than Berrios prior to 2015. And the Yankees certainly aren't looking to shut him down as a precautionary measure during a MLB pennant race.
-
That's fine, in terms of innings. But you'd also be shutting him down after 5 months this year, and then asking him to go 6 months next year (even if he starts 2016 in the minors). I suspect we might hear about the longer season as an excuse and/or they might take additional precautions next season, trying to ease him into the longer season, that they could avoid by stretching his ~160 IP this year over 6 months.
-
Some inconsistencies in these arguments: - Buxton didn't have to be added to the 40-man until 2016 either, and may only see a few weeks regular playing time as Hicks' injury replacement anyway - Rochester is out of the playoff picture as much as Chattanooga is in it - Berrios only has a few starts left, perhaps, but that's partially because they have resisted calling him up so far. - Also, 3 starts would just about exactly equal pitching the rest of the MLB season in relief - We will want Berrios to start April thru September next year. Innings aside, is shutting him down completely with a month to go in 2015 the best way to get him ready for that? Or are we setting ourselves up for another shutdown etc. in 2016?
