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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No, I just wanted to correct the common misconception that Cleveland "sold off parts" this past winter for primarily budgetary reasons, that's all. If you just want to disagree with that poster, I would simply say the Cleveland payroll and FA spending has tracked pretty close to that of the Twins in recent years.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Everyone is someone's "kid".
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too: - traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+) - traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89) - traded Alonso (55 OPS+) I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years. On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    They are also beholden to players in the FA market, but if a GM can't ever convince a decent FA to sign, I think that's a bit of a mark against the GM. I expect my GM to have some ability to persuade. They won't convince every FA, or fleece every other GM in trade, or get $200 mil to spend on a FA. But procuring an extra $1.2 mil / 8.5% to execute their preferred draft strategy (one apparently done by 23 other teams?) seems like a reasonable baseline expectation for a GM's persuasive abilities. Again, this is hypothetical. It is quite possible/probable the 2017 Twins preferred Lewis anyway.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really much of a track record. Samardzija was in his 3rd season as a SP. ERA+ figures of 107 and 89 before the half season of 134 that got him traded. Boyd was at 85 and 101 before this season's 123. I don't know much about Boyd's stuff, but he is a lefty starter with 11.9 K/9 and leading the league with a 7.10 K:BB ratio.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway. (Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe. But it's also quite possible Gore accepts the same bonus amount to be the #1 overall pick too. I will quote an old post of mine on the subject: "since we had the top pick, we also had an ability to negotiate (in specifics) and commit early to a selection, a resource that no other team had. It appears we chose to spend that resource on Lewis, and it may have been as much of a factor in his quick signing as anything else." And as Mike alluded to, the Twins would up with enough wiggle room that they could have paid slot money at #1, signed all of their other picks, and still not suffered any future draft penalties.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about this. The A's gave up Addison Russell for 1.5 years of Samardzija and 0.5 years of Hammel. That was considered a bit of an overpay by the A's, although they turned around and sold the last 1.0 years of Samardzija for some quality pieces too (who arguably turned out better than Russell). Here, it's 3.5 years of Boyd and 1.5 years of Greene. I guess if they think Boyd's season is a mirage, they might jump on this, but otherwise, I think a prospect around Lewis's ranking seems like a fair expectation as a starting point.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you are going for a humorous characterization, but this implies Odorizzi didn't play due to the coach's decision, which isn't true. He couldn't play because he is on the injured list.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams absolutely could sink it all into one guy -- but then they'd be able to sign virtually no one else. It could be an iffy strategy. Plus, you could weight the bonus pools even more than they are now -- if small market / losing teams get $20 mil to spend, versus $5 mil for the top big-market clubs, they won't even be able to do that strategy with a clear #1 pick. As for players taking less money, Durant was a pro who already banked quite a few million, no? He didn't take D-league money when he was drafted.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    "Baseball’s ‘robot umpires’ are here. And you might not even notice the difference." https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/07/10/baseballs-robot-umpires-are-here-you-might-not-even-notice-difference/
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you miss the part about "bonus pool based on record"? The Cubs bonus pool was only $5.8 mil for 2019; the Yankees, $7.5 mil. If those clubs want to sink it all into one guy, some other clubs could really clean up.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Twins playoff issues were related to a lack of pitcher strikeouts. Our offense often disappeared, we gave up some inopportune dingers, etc.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, I think so. Baserunning is a component of WAR, and I assume outs on the bases have an impact. That said, it might not have that big of an impact, since WAR is likely looking at it in a context-neutral way. And Buxton has probably accumulated enough baserunning value otherwise to offset this gaffe pretty well.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't forget -- in the Cano trade, the Mets also salary dumped Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak. Bruce now has a 123 OPS+ and 1.8 bWAR overall so far in 2019 (and has been even better since coming to the Mets division rival Phillies). Swarzak now has a 2.61 ERA and 11 K/9 overall so far in 2019 (and has been even better since coming to the Mets division rival Braves!). Although to be fair, Edwin Diaz was doing pretty well until recently -- he had a 1.64 ERA through May 28. Still, that trade has not worked out well for the Mets...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Or were they just standing around in case there was a replay review?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Link? They are still saving Zobrist money, so every analysis I have read shows them as under that threshold. For example: https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/6/18/18683584/craig-kimbrel-ben-zobrist-cubs-trade-deadline Also, they would be fools to count on Morrow for anything at this point, but if he does come back, the same principle applies: better choosing from Kimbrel plus their other relievers, than simply choosing from the other relievers.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Better choosing between Kimbrel, Strop, or Cishek than just Strop or Cishek, though.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Larry Craig in an MSP airport bathroom stall could be our mascot!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins still have 8 hitters, all from their opening day lineup, with 250+ PA this season. (And the 9th spot would be catcher, where they have low PAs primarily due to splitting the position rather than injury, although Garver did have a stint on the DL.) By comparison, the Yankees have only 5 guys meeting that 250 PA threshold, and only 4 of them were from their opening day lineup. Plus a couple extended pitcher injuries (Severino, Betances) where the Twins have had virtually none. SpoTrac has the Yankees with 23 players missing 1310 days so far in 2019, worst in MLB. Even if you think Ellsbury and Tulowitzki shouldn't count, they are still way ahead of the Twins who have missed the 4th fewest days at 357: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the blown save is getting overblown a bit. Kimbrel didn't pitch well, but he didn't get hit either. There was a one out walk (bad Kimbrel), then a bloop double just out of the reach of Contreras (the Cubs catcher who was playing in RF). Then a grounder to second, where Russell hesitated then threw home late, then a sac fly. If Contreras or a real outfielder makes the play, it's a fairly easy save. If Russell throws home right away, it may still have been a save but a fairly adventurous one. If Russell takes the out at first, it's a blown save going into extra innings but not necessarily a loss. Not a good game for Kimbrel -- he needs to miss more bats, obviously -- but not a disaster the box score would have you believe either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they were ever a week away from blowing it up to the point of dealing Scherzer. They still had too many long-term assets to do that. Rendon and Doolittle, on the other hand, were probably close to the trading block. As well as Kendrick, Dozier, etc.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor isn't opposed to it, but I wouldn't say he asked for it: https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/07/06/rangers-starter-mike-minor-scratched-sunday-start-vs-twins Sounds like the Rangers have given him the choice of a quick hook vs an occasional skipped start.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm pretty sure Radke's shoulder was already bad enough that he deferred on surgery the previous offseason, to pitch one last year. Yes, he didn't actually go on the shelf until August 2006, but it was hardly a surprising outcome. And here's how the Liriano injury situation started: So even if they didn't know much about his health before the 4 PM ET deadline on July 31st, they had pretty much the entire August waiver trade period to address it. (Edit to add: looks like Moyer and Wells were both dealt that August. Again, not Liriano replacements exactly, but better than doing nothing!) Even so, there was no way we were going to be able to lean enough on Johan and rookie Liriano to make up for the rest of that rotation anyway. It doesn't take post-trade deadline hindsight to figure that out. You might be able to consider it good luck that Boof Bonser put together a couple good months down the stretch too -- not enough to offset the loss of Liriano, of course, but it's not like it was all bad luck. (The performances of Reyes and Neshek in the pen have to be considered very good luck too. Plus a little good luck in Punto's season, and Rondell White's solid second half.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Arizona certainly wasn't going "all-in" for 2019 but it was hardly supposed to be a tanking year. They lost two FA but one (Pollock) was a probably a good "no sign" considering his age/health/performance history, and the other (Corbin) was probably just too expensive. They also got multiple immediate contributors back for an expiring asset in the Goldschmidt trade. I expect they will do some more selling of expiring assets if they fall further back in the race this month, but probably not much selling of 2020-2021 assets without a substantial return. FWIW, just my usual reminder that Greinke has a limited no-trade which includes the Twins too.
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