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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe you are thinking of de Grom, not Wheeler.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Even with Liriano, Radke was our #3 at the time and his shoulder was attached with duct tape at the time. I think we needed some form of SP addition at the 2006 deadline (and instead we actually subtracted SP by dealing Lohse, who admittedly struggled for us in 2006 but immediately regrouped for 11 starts of 103 ERA+ for the Reds down the stretch). And no way were we going to lean on Santana and rookie Liriano like Johnson/Schilling circa 2001 anyway.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Bold move for a team just 2 games out of the wild card. And kind of silly -- it's not like Minor is a rookie or coming off a lost season. He threw 157 innings last year. From 2010 to 2014, he threw 160, 180, 180, 205, and 167. What are the benefits of giving him a random 6 inning start off for no specific reason?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Bullpen game sounds like a bad idea. Mejia isn't really stretched out (much less dependable enough) to count on him eating a lot of innings. Yeah, your pen can recover over the break, but why put yourself through the trouble -- extra innings in such a game could be a disaster! And assuming you activate Odorizzi after the break, you're going to need to demote a pitcher then anyway. So you're not really losing anything by demoting a reliever and calling up Smeltzer on Sunday -- actually, that could reset the 10 day option clock on a guy like Littell earlier, meaning he'd be eligible to return sooner, rather than letting him stay on the MLB roster through the break. You can also plan to lean on Littell (or whomever you plan to demote) on Friday/Saturday, so your other relievers are more rested for Sunday.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I presume they'll exchange a reliever (presumably Littell again) for Smeltzer to start on Sunday. Smeltzer started last night too, so he's lined up perfectly to take the start.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that's quite the motivation. Odorizzi was scheduled to start again Sunday before the break, and that will have to be a AAA pitcher now (presumably Smeltzer).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    They did, but then they traded that clone to Houston for 2 more prospects...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It's also possible we cloned Berrios, and the clone is joining us in Oakland.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Is offensive potency simply a matter of raw HR totals? How many other teams are on pace to break that record (set just last year)? Relative to league, the 1963-1964 Twins were actually better at hitting HR than the 2019 Twins. And of course there's OPS+ and wRC+ for more general offensive performance, and the Twins are doing very well in those categories... but not the best in history.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Morton and Odorizzi are both scheduled to start Sunday before the break, so both could get replaced. (FWIW, Bauer and Boyd are also scheduled to start Sunday, which could rule them out as replacements.) That could open the door for Berrios or Rogers. (They'd have some competition for those spots, of course!)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the tip, but I couldn't find any reference to Betts leading the OF players vote? I don't doubt you, I'm just curious if this tweet might point to a reference with more players vote information. https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/with_replies
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know why you'd say that -- every all-star game starter last year got at least 2 PA. The last starter to get only 1 PA was catcher Salvador Perez back in 2014.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    You might not want to nitpick other posts too much while simultaneously making the claim that the 2019 Twins have "the most potent offense in MLB history."
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Aaron Bummer?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That assumes the Mets are willing to sell low. Especially given their circumstances, where they're already invested in competing now and the foreseeable future, I don't think they will.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Re: www.baseballtradevalues.com FWIW, they currently assign Pressly a $27.4 mil median trade value, versus $4.5 mil combined for Alcala and Celestino. Yes, I know that includes Pressly's extension. Looking at relievers currently controlled for 1.5 years: Yates 18 Giles 10.7 Greene 9.6 Colome 6.5 Jared Hughes 2.2 Dyson 0.3 I wouldn't have put Pressly last year as high as Yates, but probably close to the Greene/Giles neighborhood (Pressly's salary was cheaper than both).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a cool site, and it's certainly better to use that as a rough estimator of trade packages than simply packaging all of the Twins injured or under-performing minor leaguers. But that site can't account for context. Just because the White Sox traded Sale for prospect package X doesn't mean another team will trade a pitcher equivalent to Sale for an equivalent prospect package Y. The White Sox were in a position where they valued the prospects more than Sale; the Mets, Reds, and Nationals probably aren't.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at Twins position by position: C: They only took 2, and Sanchez and McCann look deserving. An argument could be made for Garver but he does trail those two quite a bit in PA. 1B: Cron's not particularly close. 2B: Same for Schoop. SS: Polanco's starting, when he arguably should be a reserve behind Bogaerts. 3B: Not close. LF: Not particularly close. CF: Fair case, but largely based on defense. RF: Good case, but dependent on recent hot streak. DH: They only took 2 and Pence and Martinez are both pretty good, although Cruz is right there in the conversation. SP: They took 8, and Odorizzi got one of those spots. Yes, Berrios has a case over John Means, but so do about 15 other AL SP. RP: They only took 4. Rogers may be better than Greene, but so are 15 other guys again.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless Polanco was a reserve. But I'm sure something else could be identified to complain about then too. Lindor actually had a great case -- a few weeks ago. His OPS was still over .900 just 2 weeks ago. The day of Kepler's 3 HR game in early June, which launched him into all-star conversation, Lindor had a 140 wRC+, ahead of Bogaerts (although both behind Polanco). Carlos Correa was even with Lindor and Bogaerts at that time too, which probably further divided the player vote. In the real world, it's hard to construct a good voting mechanism. There's always going to be a binary decision line (in or out) that isn't going to necessarily reflect the nuances of the actual vote. Should we really be outraged if Lindor got 150 player votes, Bogaerts 140, and Correa 130, or something like that?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler has a case, but he is hurt by having his hot streak so close to the balloting. But on the other hand, Bogaerts should be starting over Polanco by most metrics, but Polanco's hot start got him the top spot.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, the AL roster has 7 outfielders, and all of them are in the top 10 in WAR for OF qualifiers at Fangraphs. The only ones in the top 10 that didn't make it are the two whose WAR depends the most on defense, which unfortunately happens to be Kepler and Buxton, plus Tommy Pham. (Kepler would have an argument on offense alone too, although much of that is due to this recent performance -- in mid-May, he was still sitting at a mid-.700s OPS, which is about impossible to overcome in a contest like this without a better track record.) Rosario doesn't have much of a case. 18th in wRC+ (min. 180 PA), 24th in WAR. He wouldn't be an embarrassing pick, of course, but he doesn't really stand out among those remaining.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting -- do you have a source? I hadn't seen any details about the player vote. Obviously reputation goes a long way, but I don't think this is a fair example. He slumped a bit in June, but in late May, Betts was sitting at a 135 wRC+, better than Kepler's current 130 (and way better than Kepler before that 3 HR game in early June). So even the 2019 timing of the vote could matter, in addition to reputation.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Weren't these reserves voted by the players themselves? I wonder how recent those votes were done -- Kepler and Rosario had a bit of a hot streak lately, and Cruz was on the DL not too long ago?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gibson pitched an extra inning just fine yesterday.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Possibly, but: only Cole was a non-rental among this group. I don't think the other trade returns have too much bearing on a potential Vasquez package. Additionally, Vasquez has much more team control remaining (4.5 years) than Cole did (2). He's also performing better -- remember, Cole was coming off 100 and 107 ERA+ seasons at the time. He had tons of talent, but was still seen as a bit of a project to fully unlock it (not unlike Chris Archer?). Even so, Moran was coming off a 133 wRC+ at AAA, only had 37 MLB PA, and was still 50 FV at the time per Fangraphs. Feliz had a career 32.7% K% in MLB. And Musgrove had a 1.44 ERA in 31 innings out of the pen to make the Astros postseason bullpen, suggesting a good floor if his return to starting didn't work out. They weren't great prospects anymore, but I think those 3, as much shine was off of them, could still be considered ahead of Romero (struggling in AAA pen), Gonsalves (injured), and Gordon (cumulative 61 wRC+ at AAA in 578 PA) at the moment. Pittsburgh may also be learning from its mistakes, and may consider itself in a different position now too -- especially with the failure of the Archer trade, they may be moving beyond the point of trying to salvage their Marte/Polanco era. By all means, if Pittsburgh wants a package of these types of players for Vasquez, we should pursue it aggressively. But I wouldn't count on it.
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