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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Puig is only guaranteed $17.5 mil for the next 2 years. He will have another season of arb control beyond that, but nothing guaranteed of course.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Dodgers already spent some of their prospect cache in the Hill/Reddick trade. If a few of their guys really are untouchable, there probably isn't a worthwhile package to be had there anymore.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And we're not looking to deal Dozier because of money, so there is no harm in picking up a speculative piece with the payroll we would be shedding. I have no problem with Puig at 2 years, $17.5 mil (again, assuming he's not the centerpiece of the deal).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point, I had forgotten about Heyward -- although indeed that trade only very broadly resembles the Dozier situation. Heyward had just turned 25 years old when they acquired him, just a year older than Miller. (And Miller had already lost some of his shine at that point, resembling the "#3 starter" type that so many here want to avoid leading a Dozier return.) The Cardinals also got a pretty good bullpen weapon in Jordan Walden in that trade, although he succumbed quickly to shoulder injury. And with the death of Oscar Taveras, the Cardinals had a pretty obvious hole in their outfield plans for Heyward to fill, unlike their current crowded infield which would require jettisoning someone on a long-term contract to fit Dozier.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that Wong started the year poorly (64 wRC+), was demoted briefly in June, and came back much better and closer to his old self (99 wRC+) whom the Cardinals already awarded a long-term contract. He's also a plus defender and baserunner. I would be mildly surprised if they decided to move on from him at this point. They've got a crowded infield, but more likely they move on from Peralta and mix-and-match Wong, Carpenter, Diaz, and Gyorko. The Cardinals also don't have much of a recent history of dealing top prospects, IIRC. And while the Cubs are obviously very good, I don't think the Cardinals are sweating that much. Given their payroll constraints, Pittsburgh has likely peaked for awhile, and Cincinnati and Milwaukee are still very much rebuilding. If they can't win the division, the Cards should still be firmly in the wild card mix again without making any splashy moves (which again, I don't think they have much of a history doing -- it would be almost like predicting a splashy move for our Twins!).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Or, more likely, it just means the Twins aren't likely to trade him. But I agree, it has been a bigger conversation this offseason than what I was expecting, which has been fun and interesting even if nothing materializes.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I see no reason to think Castro would be fluent in Spanish. I don't know his precise ancestral roots, but it sounds like they've all been born and raised in America dating back at least a couple generations: http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Burning-desire-to-win-5259737.php In college at Stanford, Castro "majored in sociology, with an emphasis in business and economic sociology": http://www.gostanford.com/news/2013/4/17/208432460.aspx
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    On the other hand, though, rentals often inflate returns, because the acquiring team is guaranteed a pennant race (and sometimes virtually guaranteed a postseason berth) with the new player. I guess the Dodgers have about as good of a chance as anyone for 2017 right now, but I'm not sure we can really project an offseason return for Dozier based on rental trade returns plus a bonus for Dozier's contract control.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The new front office guys did talk to Plouffe's agent very recently. So the call about his release wasn't at all unexpected. Also, would it really be better to leave a voicemail saying "call me back" only to have Plouffe hear the news by some other means first? (Note by that point, the info was out of the Twins control, as it had been filed with league)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    After a non-tender, the Twins could re-sign Plouffe the same as any other club. If it seems rare, it is probably because nontenders are relatively rare themselves. But it does happen -- just eyeballing last year's nontender tracker at MLBTR, I see 3 guys who re-signed with their previous club. (Marginal players, admittedly, but virtually all nontenders are.) Jack Cust was a notable nontender and re-sign back in the day. I just don't think there is any evidence that teams are losing an exorbitant number of talents like Plouffe thanks to the arbitration system. (Heck, Plouffe himself is 30 years old and has been Twins property for 12.5 seasons, it does not appear the Twins are even losing him egregiously early.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Martinez was brought into a tie game for a trivial upgrade defensively over Coco Crisp, when Francona knew that Martinez was his last bench player. That was silly. The Indians still needed to score to win, and putting Martinez in the lineup hurt that chance far more than he upgraded the defense over Crisp.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Personally, I think Francona made the bigger mistakes in game 7. The eventual winning run was an intentional walk! The last out was Michael Martinez with a career 37 OPS+. Kluber didn't strike out a single batter, struggled mightily in the fourth, yet came out to start the fifth. Bryan Shaw was hit hard but allowed to keep pitching with the game on the line (and given two extra baserunners by IBB to boot).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    But if you're saying they can't sign ANY free agents, that's not comparing them to the Twins, or almost any team in MLB. That's comparing them to the Rays, or the A's. Every team in MLB has a spending power advantage over those clubs. The reason I am leaving out Heyward and Lester is because they haven't contributed much to their turnaround so far. The Cubs turnaround to a playoff caliber roster was largely complete when they brought those two aboard, especially Heyward. Maybe they or a future FA will put them over the top, but that wasn't the context of the discussion, it was the turnaround that I think you attributed too much to their FA spending power.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you subtract ALL of their FA signings, they were a $74 mil payroll team on opening day. That's not a valid baseline for showing their dependence on free agency above an average team. The average MLB payroll on opening day this year was $131 mil. Subtract Lester and Heyward, and the Cubs were right around that figure, with plenty of WAR remaining to clear the playoff threshold both this year and last year. (And I think they've only added about $9-10 mil in salary this summer in trades -- the remaining 2016 salaries for Chapman, Coughlan, and Joe Smith.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The controversial part is implying their spending is an equivalent part of their turnaround as their other moves. They got to be a 90 win team with a great core basically without any great spending.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Cubs have awesome spending power. But the fact is, the Cubs flexed relatively little of it under Epstein, with the exceptions of Lester and Heyward relatively recently and to relatively minor effect so far. No matter how many times you keep citing David Ross as one of "8 free agents with 1+ WAR" doesn't change that. The bulk of the Cubs plan to date is absolutely something the Twins could try to emulate if they wanted. I think we will see the Cubs financial power come into play more the next few years, as they maintain and build further on their success thus far.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I think "another, and another" exaggerates. Outside of Lester and Heyward, they've made exactly two $50 million signings -- Zobrist and Edwin Jackson. If you want to combine Lackey and Hammel into one $52 mil signing, fine, but that puts them at 3 which is basically no different than the three the Twins have signed in the same period (Nolasco, Santana, and extending Hughes). Twins were probably around $125 mil in 2011, adjusted for a few years of inflation. I think we'd be thrilled with ~$125 mil payroll and back to back playoff appearances, which is where the Cubs would be at right now even without Lester and Heyward. I have no doubt the Cubs have an ability to buy, and it will help them, but it hasn't helped them a ton yet. Lester is about it, and as has been noted, they still have a great starting staff without him. The value will come if Lester puts them over the top, or if they can still make more moves even if Heyward remains a dud, etc.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    McLeod's brand-new 5 year contract with the Cubs probably precludes it.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Hammel and to an extent Lackey hardly fit the description of "spending lots of money." Their combined guarantee ($52 mil for 4 player seasons) falls right between Nolasco (4/49) and Santana (4/55), and also less per year than the Hughes extension (3/42). Zobrist is in that department too (4/56). Other Cubs free agent acquisitions with 1+ bWAR include Fowler (1/13) and Ross (2/5). If a new Twins front office can better target guys in that range, more power to them! Lester I will grant, as well as Heyward, although the latter clearly hasn't contributed much if anything to the Cubs turnaround so far. Take away those two, the Cubs still make the playoffs this year and last, with a payroll in 2011 Twins territory.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is claiming MacPhail was perfect, just that he had an overall positive record here. And every World Series team in history is probably the beneficiary of good luck. His Cubs did come close to the World Series in 2003, closer than the Twins have come since MacPhail left. And while MacPhail obviously can't take too much credit for things after he left those jobs, both the Cubs and Orioles made the playoffs the first year after he left with rosters he largely built, which somewhat offsets leaving the 1994-1995 Twins in a bad position when considering his career record.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it took a bit more than luck to take Griffith's collection of players and get two titles out of them, plus two more competitive seasons in 1988 and 1992. Or at least, MacPhail put them in good position to take advantage of good luck? Also, Radke, Hunter, Koskie, Guardado, and Hawkins were all drafted in the MacPhail era too, so he didn't leave the cupboard completely bare.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Erickson turned out to be a pretty effective workhorse for a decade. The shape of his career was admittedly a bit weird, but I'm not sure I'd be disappointed if Berrios basically doesn't miss a start for the next 10 years and posts a 105 ERA+ in that span. Radke would be a step up from that, I suppose, although the difference isn't as great as it might seem. Radke's career ERA+ was 113. The big difference is that Radke's effectiveness lasted an extra two years, while Erickson got hurt at 32 and hung around until the bitter end. Ervin Santana was maybe another step below (career 101 ERA+) although he's showing signs of better longevity right now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a matter of them being conniving. It's just a matter of comfort. And once we establish there is a need to go outside, they might be most comfortable with the outside hire who is interested in making the least amount of waves. (Again, that's not my take on Falvey yet, but that's how I understand that concern.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't worry, the Twins still have a week to make the significance of the 100 loss threshold seem quaint by comparison.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a binary, either-or thing. There are degrees of maintaining the status quo, and one of those degrees would be hiring a less aggressive outside candidate. I don't share that particular fear of Falvey at this point, however.
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