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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Vernon Wells to the Angels? Matt Kemp for Yasmani Grandal is probably another one. The previous Arizona regime dealing Eaton and Skaggs for Trumbo was pretty baffling. A lot of folks here laughed at the White Sox trading for Shields, and they might have been right (although the White Sox didn't pick up the full contract or give up a whole lot in talent).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair to Arizona, they are in the same division as the Dodgers and Giants. Those are some formidable opponents, which probably prompted some of this aggression. Same for San Diego's aggressive moves under Preller. Another recently discussed former GM, Anthopolous, was probably working under similar considerations with Toronto in the AL East. The Twins fortunately don't have a comparable team in their division. (Cleveland has some good players especially pitchers, but is pretty frugal/conservative.) The Twins shouldn't feel the pressure to be too aggressive, but certainly some smart aggressive moves could help!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Preller hasn't done that badly in terms of prospects, though. His first offseason, he indeed gave up Trea Turner and Joe Ross. He also gave up Yasmani Grandal, although he wasn't a prospect anymore. But he also got Justin Upton and Craig Kimbrel relatively cheaply, as well as Wil Myers and Derek Norris, who have generally been solid (Norris' recent collapse notwithstanding). Then in his second year, he turned around and got a nice prospect haul for Kimbrel, and also got Pomeranz for Alonso and flipped him for a top prospect, moved Cashner for prospects, flipped Rodney, and managed to unload James Shields in the nick of time. Also got a comp pick for losing Justin Upton. If you account for Turner's crazy BABIP and Ross's low ceiling, and give him credit for adding Margot and Espinoza, Preller has probably been close to net neutral in terms of prospects. Still has Renfroe, Nix, Allen, and even Hedges too (who is no longer prospect eligible but is only 23 and has showed some promise in AAA). His main problem seems to be targeting the wrong MLB players and not getting enough present-day performance from them (i.e. Kemp).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Garver could easily get some starts behind the plate in Minnesota in September, in addition to AFL starts in October...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't that actually suggest the Twins have a better shot? If he wanted to stay in Toronto enough to take a hometown discount, we'd pretty much have no chance to sign him -- we'd have to out-bid them by a considerable amount. At least this suggests we could out-bid them slightly and win his services. Not that I endorse it or think it is likely for any number of other reasons, but in theory, the Twins chances at landing a player should only improve the less likely he is to re-sign with his current team.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Good thing nobody is doing that? Doumit and Herrmann were first brought up in this discussion as examples to suggest the Twins were "cutting edge."
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Although Moncada's AFL season could be cut short: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/red-sox-promote-yoan-moncada.html Sounds like they might be having him focus on 3B work too. I remember Kubel appearing in September 2004 for the Twins and our playoff series, then going to the AFL to gruesomely injure his knee...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth answered above, but the key detail here is that it is not simply "20 days in the minors" -- it is 20 days on optional assignment. And players not yet on the 40 man are not on optional assignment, so any prior days in the minors for them this season do not count toward that number. Berrios used an option this year, because he got added to the 40-man then optioned. But getting added to the 40-man and recalled does not use an option (like Duffey in 2015).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Herrmann wasn't often deployed in a flexible arrangement by the Twins. In 2014, he almost exclusively played outfield (1 inning at catcher), and in 2015, he almost exclusively played catcher (2 innings in the outfield, plus 4 at first base). Similarly, Sano wasn't given an additional position -- he was completely moved. Whatever flexibility they gained by giving him an outfielder's glove, they probably lost by simultaneously taking away his 3B glove (although they eventually backtracked on that, shortly before pulling the plug on the outfield idea entirely). Danny Santana has followed a somewhat similar pattern -- setting aside whether it's a particularly new/good idea to have bad players who are position flexible, Santana was almost exclusively an infielder in 2015 (only 3 starts in the outfield), and has been almost exclusively an outfielder in 2016 (only 3 starts in the infield). The Twins positional flexibility arrangements of the last few years have largely been of the "semi-permanent move" or "emergency" variety.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, Garver last year posted a 116 wRC+ in the FSL. Virtually identical to his 118 mark in AA this year. If that earned him his promotion to AAA as you claim, there was definitely a case for him moving up midseason in 2014 or 2015 too.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The idea put forth here is that frequently going over an inning (higher pitch counts) has worn him down, to the point where he is less effective across all of his outings, regardless of length. He's been in the multi-inning role all year, and his ERA has been steadily climbing all year, so perhaps there is something to it. Not that Tonkin is any kind of great pitcher, but there is evidence to suggest we haven't been putting him in a position to succeed to the best of his abilities. Heck, a lot of people here have been endorsing Pressly as a key bullpen cog going forward, and his run prevention has been almost exactly the same as Tonkin's except Tonkin has given up 4 more HR (leading to ~8 more runs overall). I wouldn't be surprised if Tonkin's profile makes him slightly more prone to allowing HR, but his advantage in K rate could be enough to balance that out, assuming he was deployed similarly to Pressly. Probably worth finding out in a lost season, rather than seeing if he can handle long relief -- if we don't see him as anything better than a long reliever, he should probably be dropped from the 40-man this winter, frankly.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The other day I calculated it, when Santana had been on the active roster this season, he was playing at a 409 PA full season pace.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure -- which is worse, promoting Schafer because you don't plan to sit Grossman, or promoting Schafer and STILL sitting Grossman?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, a Palka or Walker recall today would have provided a fine positive story...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The team votes on rookie of the year? Also, "spin on Dean"? The context of the comment was the team's decision to bring May back to the bullpen at the beginning of July. It has nothing to do with Berrios.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Twins are "slow promoters" to any great degree, but it is interesting/odd that Garver will turn 26 this winter and might have zero MLB experience (or perhaps just a couple token September appearances, if they do indeed call him up after Rochester's season ends but fail to deal Suzuki). While that may look unavoidable because he started the year in AA, and Garver was a 22 year old college draftee, but we also sent him to rookie league ball at age 22, and then we made him spend a whole season, his age 23 season, at A ball in Cedar Rapids even though he hit quite well the whole year (while at the same time, we pushed Turner to skip that level and not hit so well at high-A and AA). And it doesn't seem like we held Garver back to work on his defense -- in that whole season in Cedar Rapids, he barely caught 50% of his games. Org filler Michael Quesada took significant catching reps from Garver that year, and again the following year at Fort Meyers, before apparently washing out of pro ball by his 26th birthday. And while I don't think Garver is some great prospect, I also wouldn't point to his modest minor league batting lines as evidence that the Twins were wise to hold him back. Adjusted for league, his batting lines have been pretty consistently good-to-great in pro ball, and his K/BB rates have been very good too, suggesting a player who could have been challenged more: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa578988&position=C/DH
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The poster referred to Garver's age in the very next sentence, which you blatantly omitted from your quote. You can disagree with him, but don't be dishonest about it.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That wasn't Nick's opinion by late June: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23013-article-setting-up-for-the-second-half/ Maybe it still was in May: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/trevor-may-is-leading-an-evolving-bullpen-r4673
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Some of these, you might not want to count before they hatch. Also, might not want to lead with O'Rourke, the guy who cleared waivers a couple months ago and could be a minor league free agent in a couple months. Also, while this looks like a decent list in absolute terms, how is it in relative terms? I would guess every team in baseball has found and developed a handful of guys who have produced as much as O'Rourke, Tonkin, and Vargas to date. And a guy like Sano probably would have made MLB no matter what organization he signed with. From results it seems pretty obvious that the Twins have not done well at producing MLB talent above their peers recently, hard to argue with that.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The triples were kinda the main reason folks expected Rosario to regress, no? Also, how is Park not a bust? Maybe not top 5, but he has to be a considered a bust for 2016. Even if you think the wrist was a factor, you considered other injury cases as busts. Also, Nolasco only failed to bust because he set expectations so low in 2014-2015. I have to imagine anyone picking him to bust were predicting a continuation of his 2014-2015 performances, which was mostly true.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Would it help if the 21st one was yourself? Only joking -- the system doesn't allow that.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if you're aware, but TD has that feature: http://twinsdaily.com/index.php?app=core&module=usercp&tab=core&area=ignoredusers But I'll try not to give you any more reason to use it!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You can't enjoy an internet message board without learning to look past some of the posts/posters (present company perhaps included ).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope the new GM doesn't make a major move like that right away based on the recommendations of the old scouts / front office / coaches that are responsible for producing the current MLB staff.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Correcting myself -- the first time since rookie league in 2013. The larger point still stands, Garver and Turner were not teammates during the 2014 or 2015 seasons.
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