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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Especially with MLB rosters expanding to 26 next year, a 45 FV prospect like Duran entering his age-22 season would be a pretty easy Rule 5 pick for a few teams around the league.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, although the current Diamondbacks are in a better position than the 2017 Tigers, so they actually have a use for Greinke at the moment and for 2020-2021. That's tricky. The Mets may only be on the edge of the 2019 race right now, and could fall further off soon, but they're really built to win (or at least, try to win) over the next couple years, and Syndergaard -- on modest arbitration salaries -- is a big part of that. I'm not sure how much Lewis or the other top Twins prospects would make up for that -- it would represent a pretty big change of course for the Mets, I would think, so I wouldn't see this as particularly likely, even if the Twins were willing to pony up.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought about the Giants and Mets in this regard too, although both are well shy of the luxury tax threshold, and both have a capacity for high payrolls. They probably wouldn't be opposed to shedding some salary, but probably not enough to part with really good talent to do so. And the Twins should be aiming for really good talent. Maybe the Twins could add a guy like Jeurys Familia or Mark Melancon if we take on a good chunk of their salaries, but we can afford to aim higher than that. I don't think the Mets or Giants would use decent trade chips like Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Smith just to unload some other contract (unless it was more than I'd want the Twins to pay!).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say the Reds are in a perpetual rebuild. They were a perennial contended who started their rebuild midway through 2015, as they were about to lose some pending FA, and they expected they were ready to take a step forward this year. Seems like a reasonable timeline. In addition to Castillo under long-term control, they've extended Suarez and Gray, and they just promoted top prospect Senzel this year. They still have Iglesias for a few years more in the pen if they want, plus emerging relievers like Garrett, Stephenson, etc. They've got a few other recent top 100 prospects like Winker and Mahle contributing. They're far from perfect but they're not about to tear the club down. They absolutely should be sellers this year, but I'd expect that to mean expiring contracts (Roark, Puig), and maybe relievers. To pry Castillo could take multiple elite prospects, and frankly I'm not even sure the Twins could pay that price right now even if we wanted to, with Lewis scuffling, Kirilloff sidelined with more wrist problems, and Graterol shut down with shoulder concerns. (Edit: not to say those guys aren't still top prospects, but they're not exactly at peak value at the moment either.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I say we wait a couple years, and get him for Drew Butera and Dustin Martin instead. Edit fun fact: Dustin Martin never made it to MLB, but is still active in pro ball as recently as this past winter in Mexico: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin002dus
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    HRs are probably a bit easier to acquire in 2019 than pitching. No surprise that Seattle is still trading aggressively. Too bad they don't have much desirable pitching right now...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds good in theory, but the Marlins are already last in MLB in payroll, and they are shedding about $27 mil in Castro and Prado after this season. If they were to salary dump Chen, they'd probably just be under immediate pressure from MLB and the MLBPA to turn around and spend it again. I'm guessing they'd rather just move their better assets for the best prospects possible, and leave Chen out of it. The Twins could still be in the mix, of course.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You think they're losing a lot of customers through the tobacco ban? I'm guessing they make money from the stadium ban -- tobacco users rate of attendance probably doesn't fall off much (if at all), and they're probably more likely to purchase concessions if they can't use tobacco. You think MLB isn't motivated by money too? The insurance costs could be considerable. Remember, they're paying for lifetime insurance for every guy who's ever suited up in an MLB uniform. When that populations chews at 5x the rate of the normal population, the extra premium costs are going to add up. Obviously we don't know how they rank the reasons, but if they save money AND get good PR, I wouldn't say they're doing it just to feel good about themselves.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a lot harder for insurers to get meaningful data about an individual's alcohol usage vs tobacco usage. And as for chew vs smoke, it has been my experience that insurance companies don't differentiate between the two. A quick Google search seems to back that up: "While tobacco chewers might not be at the same level of risk as smokers for respiratory or other debilitating health conditions, insurance companies place all tobacco users -- including those who chew -- in the same smoker risk category and hit them with higher premiums" https://budgeting.thenest.com/insurance-cost-chew-tobacco-31513.html
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB teams save money by discouraging tobacco use. MLB teams make money through concession sales. All of that seems perfectly consistent. Are some of their reasons/justifications less meaningful than others? Certainly, but that doesn't mean the other reasons don't exist. FWIW, those "3000 calorie platters of artery clogging garbage" at the ballpark are generally priced so as to discourage their mass consumption.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And what was the point of your hyperbole? To be dismissive of legitimate justifications for the tobacco ban (responding to my post about health insurance costs). Not quite. The primary argument I made about banning tobacco -- which you dismissed with your hyperbole -- was health insurance costs, which are affected more by tobacco than alcohol. That said, this website from 2012 says that 18 MLB clubs had clubhouse alcohol restrictions -- I imagine that number has only gone up: https://www.shazamlaw.com/blog/2012/03/rules-against-drinking-spreading-through-mlb-clubhouses.shtml Here's another article from 2013 that says "You can drink on team flights traveling on the road, but on flights home, not one team authorizes drinking." https://www.shazamlaw.com/blog/2012/03/rules-against-drinking-spreading-through-mlb-clubhouses.shtml It sure seems like MLB is taking reasonable steps to deal with alcohol use among its players too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    You've dismissed legitimate justifications for the tobacco ban all through this thread. You called the ban "just something for some folks to feel good about". You also called them hypocrites for not banning hot dogs and soda, so I'd argue your use of the term is pretty loose to the point where it doesn't have much practical meaning.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't think it would be difficult to comprehend, when I said that a business can justify taking one step to save themselves money and improve the health of their employees without taking every possible step to do so. Yet here we are.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it's about the kids, really -- MLB gets an immediate, direct benefit if they discourage players from using tobacco and help players quit. Indirect benefits beyond that are just gravy. That said, those indirect benefits are also not just about fans like us seeing a player doing it on TV or at the stadium. It's about the culture. That minor leaguer who chews will go on to be the town ball teammate that chews, or the high school coach that chews. Or he'll have a kid that's more likely to play ball -- and more likely to chew, regardless of what his father says about substance abuse.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    There are plenty of laws already concerning use of alcohol. What point exactly where you trying to make by bringing it up repeatedly in this thread?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't stop there -- cars are dangerous too! Your concern about alcohol is just selective, feel good policing if you're not also banning cars.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    So a business can't justify taking one step to save themselves money and improve the health of their employees unless they take every possible step to do so. Got it.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    A few factors: Seager looks to be a flyball hitter (although he did ground out twice in this game). Gordon (the lead runner) and Smith are pretty fast (and Long's probably not a slowpoke?). And if you walk Smith, then if Seager doesn't hit into a double play, Encarnacion comes up with men on base. Ideally they want to avoid Encarnacion, and not rely entirely on Seager's DP odds to do it.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Big Sexy?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Balazovic was adjusted -- he had the same FV preseason as Rortvedt and Blankenhorn. Maybe they just need more data before they adjust those other guys? We're still looking at pretty small samples in 2019.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Kirilloff previously jumped from 50 FV to 60 FV in 2018. My guess is that the current drop is health and/or position related, rather than performance?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing MLB teams, paying for the player's lifetime health insurance, consider it a big deal?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    We could have bought a little help FOR the pen...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No, international money is generally specified as such. My guess in these situations is that the cash is fairly nominal, akin to a waiver fee. But I admit I don't know exactly. (Can someone turn on the "Jack Goin" Bat-Signal?)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How about "We Can Work It Out"? Some others: "You've Got to Hide Your 'Pen Away" "The Fools on the Hill" "While Our Offense Gently Weeps" "Get Back" (sung to Taylor Rogers)
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