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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I was primarily wondering if Parker had done any analysis of how the leg kick looked at AAA, and how it looked in MLB. But it was nice to see some positive clips about Buxton regardless!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe. I guess I didn't see what the leg kick looked like at AAA. Anybody checking MILB.TV archived games?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It worked for Dozier!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    According to the metrics, Maybin wasn't a defensive liability until 2015 (after missing a lot of time in 2013-2014). At his peak, Maybin was an average hitter, plus baserunner, plus defender (by the metrics), and a 3-4 WAR player. But that peak only lasted 2 seasons, and it looks like the defensive value started deteriorating in his age 26 season...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair -- this year's moves have seemed especially baffling. Although maybe it doesn't matter? If all he was going to be doing at Rochester was more reps with this poor excuse for a leg-kick, would it really have mattered if he spent an extra couple months there? Would it have just been wasted time?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It's important to note, this particular "demotion" was basically just an extended rehab stint. The Twins did the same with Arcia in May 2014. I think late April 2016 was his first "real" demotion. A bunch of folks here were encouraged by this one. His OPS was climbing last September, and his K rate dropping. Hit a couple HR near the end of the season. Seemed like most folks here thought he had made enough progress to open 2016 in MLB, even if he was still very much a work in progress at the plate with most of his value coming from defense.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's kind of where I am at. I certainly think Buxton can make it, but he has SO far to go, and seems to get injured so frequently, he may be 3-4 years into his MLB career before he gets to an acceptable level. And even then, who knows how well his adjustments will stick long-term. I keep coming back to Carlos Gomez, who became a great MLB player at ages 27-28 -- but before and after that, has been useful at times but pretty "meh." And it seems Buxton still has a lot of work to do to even get back up to the Gomez career projection.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    None of those guys had remotely the K struggles that Buxton has had. Most of them just had low BABIPs, some just lacked power. That's not all that unusual. Buxton's K's skyrocketing, and not appearing to get any better over time? That's unusual. Some of those guys weren't as dominant in the in the minor leagues either -- Carlos Gonzalez had a 90 wRC+ in AAA the same year he posted a 67 as a MLB rookie. Is that drop off really comparable to Buxton's? Brandon Phillips had a .757 career minor league OPS (in a higher-offense era), compared to Buxton's .885.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    How can this description not concern you, if only for the injuries? Can this guy even stay healthy long enough to fully implement the massive adjustments he still obviously needs to make?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty sure no one has made such a complaint. Some folks said it was a big win because Santiago is better than Nolasco. Others questioned whether the difference between them is all that great, particularly in the context of the Twins current needs. If that is how you interpret such a debate, I am not sure what to tell you. I'll grant you this -- at least you didn't chime in to say how all of our opinions are wrong as judged by your experience in real-world business and management situations!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The 16 pages of discussion contain a modest debate about the value of the deal to the Twins, including the "so what" post you responded to. I don't think anyone in this debate so far deserves to be mocked for "expecting an ace" in return for Nolasco.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Should Melotakis count as a "power arm"? I'm not predicting future greatness for Jones, but it feels like maybe the Brewers made a mistake on this one? Looks like they had to the perfect opportunity to keep Jones with minimal effort, first half of the season on the DL, second half active on a team well out of playoff contention. Will be interesting to see if we protect him this winter, or I guess the Brewers or someone else might get another Rule 5 crack at him.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    6 IP, 5 R for Nolasco tonight. But great K and BB rate! Classic Nolasco. True to form, Santiago went 5 innings, yielding 4 runs -- slightly fewer innings, but a slightly lower ERA too!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Um, no? B-Ref WAR is based on actual runs allowed, not FIP components. With park factors, like ERA+. And they aren't mutually exclusive, you can use both. They both establish that Santiago has been better, but WAR is nice in that it can reward pitching more innings, which is a skill and can have some value, and in general WAR can put the comparison in terms of runs and wins, which is easier to compare. How much money is 10 extra ERA+ points worth? What might be a better investment, +10 ERA+ or +10 OPS+? Like any stat, WAR isn't perfect, and I am sure teams have their own proprietary things that are better, but I think it is clearly a useful tool in the toolbox for these fan discussions.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    WAR at B-Ref is not based on FIP. Not sure to whom you are responding, but that is the WAR I was using (and I noted as such in my post).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Did Carlos Santana not read this article?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not everyone thinks he will be non-tendered! It is Santiago's last arb season. Pretty much every non-elite guy looking at non-trivial scratch is kind of a borderline non-tender by that point (i.e. Plouffe). But at this point, if I had to guess, I'd guess he was tendered. But the new GM should have all of November to sign or trade for someone before that decision has to be made.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. A low-risk flyer. The fact that he was healthy and eating innings with a 82 ERA+ isn't very valuable on its own, although I suppose some desperate team could plug a hole with it, especially in August -- it's better than, say, calling up Kyle Lohse! or perhaps trading for Kevin Correia circa 2014 -- but I think it easily satisfies a threshold of more general interest. He's been healthy and non-disastrous this year, I think it's fair to say he'd generate decent interest as a $3-4 mil flyer or August hole-plugger. This trade kind of confirms that -- I doubt the Angels would have made this deal if Nolasco were really on the cusp on release, like Edwin Jackson last year. They may have done something around Santiago for Meyer, but they wouldn't have agreed to pay Nolasco $8 mil next year if he was an absolute zero.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not saying he had value to the Twins. What I'm saying is, a pitcher eating innings with a low-80's ERA+ generally still has some absolute value in the league. Particularly if they have some past record of decent performance like Nolasco, solid peripherals, and a great case for change-of-scenery (he's only ever struggled this much in Minnesota). Heck, the Dodgers paid $1.5 mil in salary (plus I think a modest cash payment to the Twins, I thought I heard $250k) for less than 2 months of Kevin Correia in 2014. Someone would have paid $3-4 mil for Nolasco right now if we were willing to eat the rest of his salary, I am sure, just as a low-risk flyer / innings eater.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    More on the surprising timing of the trade: while it was made on the non-waiver deadline day, and couldn't have been made in August (Meyer would have been claimed), the entire trade could have been made in the offseason too. On flexibility: by making this trade now, while it does give the new GM the choice to tender Santiago or save $8 mil this winter, doesn't it also preclude the new GM from being able to salvage something more from Meyer and, to a lesser extent, from Nolasco? Meyer still had an option year in 2017, and Nolasco still had time on his deal. Hopefully our new head of baseball ops is looking at the personnel and practices that contributed to Meyer's and Nolasco's problems here, and working to address them quickly. Obviously, we won't know for sure, but it feels like this trade, and the Santiago or $8 mil savings options, could have still been on the table in October.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. Although it should be noted that Milone is and will be cheaper. Acquiring Santiago and intending to tender him probably precludes us from taking a cheap flyer on Milone or another SP this winter -- not that I have a lot of faith in Milone, but given his track record, there are probably worse ways to spend a couple mil for rotation depth. A buy-low FA SP might have been an interesting use of the spot too. Didn't you often make the point that more expensive players are generally harder to cut/demote/replace? Santiago at $8 mil next year should have a shorter leash than Nolasco at $12 mil, but both are way ahead of Milone at whatever he is going to make (have to imagine an arb cut would be in his future, if not a nontender and cheap re-sign), or some Bud Norris like FA. Milone could probably even be sent outright off the 40-man roster to AAA again as needed (he will still be short of 5 years service time for a bit longer, so he couldn't elect free agency without forfeiting the salary).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I know, I thought that too. The argument can cut both ways, depending on what you need from the rotation spot, etc. Mediocre innings do seem to have some value -- maybe not to us, but to someone else in a different situation.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think our Twins-colored glasses obscure a few facts. As bad as Nolasco has been, he didn't have zero absolute value. He had severe negative value relative to his salary, but healthy and eating innings at an 82 ERA+ level this year, he had some modest absolute value. A little credit to the Twins, I suppose, for not unloading him before he was back and healthy, and for not shuffling him to the bullpen yet which could have sapped his value further. And likewise, as frustrating as Meyer has been, he didn't have zero absolute value either. He had negative value relative to where he was 1-2 years ago, but he too still had some modest absolute value. More credit to the Twins for keeping him away from surgery this long, even if he's missed a lot of action -- shoulder surgery would have reduced his value much more than being inactive with an apparently clean MRI. As disappointing/frustrating as they were, neither pitcher was in particular danger of being released for nothing. That we combined them to get Santiago + Busenitz, or $8 mil salary relief + Busenitz if we non-tender Santiago, was a little surprising because of the combination and the timing, but it really wasn't that far off from their present value (even if you like the trade).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll agree that Santiago is better at the moment, but the edge probably isn't that dramatic. As recently as July 1st, Nolasco was actually having a slightly better 2016 season than Santiago. Even now, after a nice past month from Santiago, the difference is fairly slim -- 0.3 WAR for Nolasco, vs 0.9 WAR for Santiago. 2015 obviously Santiago has an advantage (1.8 WAR) over Nolasco's lost season. In 2014, Nolasco was exactly replacement level, but Santiago was only worth 0.5 WAR himself. In 2013, Santiago was worth a nice 2.8 WAR, but Nolasco wasn't far behind at 1.8 WAR (pre-Twins, obviously ). This is all bWAR, mind you, so it's not counting any FIP advantage. These numbers include Santiago's better performance with runners on base. Not to mention, Santiago's career high in IP is only 180, a mark that Nolasco exceeded 5 times in the non-DH league, and was on pace to exceed again in 2016 despite his age and mediocre performance.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is on you to find a link or example that says otherwise. The Dodgers in particular have sent tons of money with players, and every player that has been dealt again, the third team inherited the Dodgers contribution. "Send cash" is just shorthand, I am sure you can find many examples of trades reported as "team X will pay this part of player Y's salary" too.
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