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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's probably the least of their differences. Smith had a 12.2 K/9 over the last 3 years. Only 9.0 this year so far, but it has been climbing since his return.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I could see that he's a bit overrated. But Bickford is still a nice prospect, though, shooting up to #65 on MLB's list. He would have represented good return on Santana (assuming the Giants picked up most of the salary). And Bickford plus an MLB ready catcher in Susac looks like a fantastic haul for Will Smith.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily. Susac has been in AAA, and might just be Lucroy insurance for an offseason or 2017 trade.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Jim Pohlad is currently checking that media guide as we speak...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Jeremy just retweeted Bickford and Susac for the Brewers' Will Smith. EDIT: And MLBTR confirms: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/giants-acquire-will-smith.html Still makes you wonder what was out there for Perkins a few years ago...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought something like that happened in recent years (an injured player was exchanged?), but I'm not sure I've ever seen a healthy player returned to offset the injured player...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I will withhold my analysis of the trade until I find out Pat Light's opinions on Billy Joel's 1980s-era output...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It was nearly an hour ago that Jeremy reported "Santana gone" but his source did not indicate a destination. And no one else has reported much of anything new on him since then -- shortly thereafter, Morosi tweeted the Blue Jays were discussing him, but has since tweeted about the Jays interest in Hellickson too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    3 seasons, assuming we didn't promote him right away this year -- he is presently 30-some days shy of 4 years service time, since he's been in AAA most of the year.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    To me, Drew Hutchison is already arb eligible, making $2.2 mil this year, with only 3 years of team control left (and actually, he's only 30-some days away from 4 years service time, so you couldn't promote him right away this year). Plus his performance, and lack of top prospect pedigree even from a few years ago, he's more like Tommy Milone now than the primary guy the Twins should be targeting in return for a good asset.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but in the post I was responding too, no such distinction was made. Besides, most guys from AAA/AA with 3+ years of experience aren't going to stay in the top 100 if evaluators think they're near the ceiling. It's a game of chance with any prospect, but I think "top 100" is a useful generic construct. Elite prospects rarely get deal, so it's useful to have a term for the next tier (beyond which might be 200-300 guys with fairly interchangeable cases).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    With big salary relief too, I lean toward this. Reid-Foley (at first I thought it was two guys ) is already "breaking out" according to Sickels, and I don't think he is talking about acne.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are getting significant salary relief, I don't think you'd have to insist on all 3 of those players.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If they are currently a consensus top 100, it generally means something is going right for them. You pretty much have to be playing well, with a bonus for top picks/signings who don't have much experience yet. It's no sure thing, of course, but it's way better than a project (or even a bunch of them) like Pat Light. Nick Gordon was perhaps a "fringe" top 100 guy after 2014, Tyler Jay after 2015... Alex Meyer after 2011 (his draft year), etc. Agreed on your skepticism about this org's ability to develop that talent, but I don't want us to stop acquiring talent either. Hopefully those issues get addressed this winter too.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a link to Jeremy's Twitter, if you all want to follow that: https://twitter.com/jeremynygaard Latest update: he likewise has been unable to confirm anything in regards to Santana...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Who cares about where Jay Bruce plays? He's been in Cincinnati for 9 years, with a 111 OPS+ and 16 WAR. Sale would be a mega-deal, and those are pretty darn interesting. There will likely be multiple top prospects involved if he were traded, and very interesting to watch their careers develop to help see who "won" the trade. Puig would probably be a challenge trade, like Cespedes for Porcello etc., and those are also pretty interesting. I don't like it when teams get stars cheaply, usually involving circumstances other than talent acquisition -- the Yankees trade for Bobby Abreu comes to mind here, when the Phillies were being cheap/dumb. But most of the recent prospect-for-stars deals are pretty interesting, from a baseball/talent perspective.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect Light goes back to the AAA International League, where he has been the past few weeks (and most of the season) anyway. Abad's roster spot is taken by Berrios, with Duffey shifting to the pen. Need to do more to get Chargois in before September.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the info! Pat Light is also on the 40-man roster, and is in his first option year. I'm not crazy about Light, but I am encouraged that we were willing to deal Abad for him. Abad is not the kind of guy you haggle about trades returns over.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Check Baseball Prospectus, or Cot's (which is part of Prospectus now anyway). They have Bundy at 26 days service time entering the 2016 season. I think B-Ref's contract status gets broken when a player doesn't have any service time the previous season -- Buddy Boshers is a good current Twins example. Another place to check is the transactions list at Bundy's MILB page, where you can see he was optioned every year from 2012-2015 (thanks to signing the MLB contract), and he also avoided the MLB disabled list during that time.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    My Santana trade theory: any decent return in terms of players/prospects is probably worth dealing him, assuming the acquiring team is picking up the salary. It not only frees up a spot for a younger pitcher right away, but it gives the Twins more time to try to reclaim some value from Nolasco and/or Milone who otherwise could/should be dropped for nothing soon. Such a deal would also provide ample financial resources to finance a different MLB SP flier, if we prefer. All of that should be considered as benefit from the deal, in addition to the actual players/prospects received in return (players/prospects who could also help support another trade, if we wanted to go that route). But, my working assumption is that no team is willing to give up much in players/prospects as well as take on the whole salary, so I won't be surprised that he stays a Twin.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm with you on the relievers, but I do wonder about Suzuki. We really don't have an alternative right now. As crazy as it seemed a couple months ago, Suzuki at $6 mil doesn't sound bad for 2017. (Maybe we could rent him to a team on the condition that they void the option, like Lucroy tried to negotiate ) Of course, either Texas or Cleveland should be desperate enough that we could still acquire something enough to make it worth our while. But probably better than the "flier" that we'd deal those relievers for.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins aren't done with Suzuki to that extent, I am pretty sure of that. Who exactly would replace him? True, but the Twins won't necessarily be able to find the team that wants to trade for them in August -- they will be restricted to negotiating, for a 48 hour window, with the worst team that claims them. Maybe the Padres want to trade a low minors lottery ticket for Abad or Kintzler in August? Too bad, if one of Braves, Reds, Rays, or Diamondbacks wants to try claiming them for free, if only so they themselves can try flipping them to the Padres (or whomever) for that low minors lottery ticket after the season.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Dave, I think it was your post that first led me to believe we got a real top 100 prospect back for Nunez. Did you follow the later discussion on that? Because he was #91 only on BA's midseason list, which excluded 2016 MLB graduates but didn't include new 2016 draftees or signings. Mejia was the #5 Giants prospect on that list, a system, that preseason only ranked #19 by BA. He wasn't on MLB's midseason top 100, he wasn't in Sickels preseason top 175 and might not make it this winter either -- I think he was a solid return for Nunez, but I don't think he was that surprising.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the fact that Suzuki, Abad, and Kintzler both offer relatively affordable control beyond 2016 hurts them in August waivers. A team that's no longer in contention could reasonably claim them and have waiver priority, but they would have no urgency to immediately meet the Twins trade demands either. Santana is a little bit better, as his salary would probably clear most non-contending teams, although once he falls to big spending contenders like the Dodgers or Blue Jays, they'd probably just rather take on his contract than give up good prospects. The best scenario would probably be clearing, and then having the freedom to shop them later when a new need develops, although either way, you're not likely to get much in return.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but the point of FIP and fWAR is to say, Stroman's peripherals are sound, and he doesn't have a long history of under-performing them like Nolasco (yet). Combined with the fact that Stroman is throwing more innings than Santana, and the spot they'd be filling is likely the Jays 4th starter spot (behind Sanchez, Happ, and Estrada), and it's very hard for me to see that Santana is a "big upgrade" over him. Also, Stroman's injury was not related to his pitching arm, so I wouldn't hold that against him, other to say that it gave him MLB service time without the additional MLB experience/evaluation. He looks to be arb eligible this winter as a Super-2 unless they option him soon. Still, I could see a package with Stroman as the centerpiece being a good return for Santana. Santana's got the track record, but Stroman is controlled longer, cheaper, and 8 years younger, just entering his "prime" years -- it wouldn't take too much in additional prospects to make that a good trade. If I had a big reservation, it's that I am not confident the Twins could help Stroman develop further, but that's hopefully a problem that will begin to get addressed soon. Another way to look at it: how do you value Gibson vs Santana? A number of posters have been saying they'd require a greater return to move Gibson than to move Santana right now. Well, Stroman has been better than Gibson, is younger, has less mileage on his arm (and no TJ surgery yet), with less service time...
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