Otto von Ballpark

Better than feeding him cheeseburgers!

Well, I don't necessarily expect them to post MLB's second best record from now through 2020 either, or win a world series. I too will bet revenue and payroll don't grow much, but I'm also expecting some performance regression. If they keep up this pace and get those arb awards and contracts you predict, we might see more growth though.

FWIW, Severino was coming off 5.3 and 4.8 bWAR seasons. Berrios had 3.9 last year and is on pace for 3.3 this year. Buxton did have a 5 bWAR year in 2017, that was part of his arb calculation, although yes, the lost season drags it down. But much of that WAR is still defense though -- are there any crazy arb comps for that profile? Keirmaier and Enciarte signed extensions, but those figures don't necessarily support the idea that Buxton is going to get crazy arb awards. I bet he loses some more time between now and the end of 2020 too.

The QO is a good incentive to negotiate an extension. The team won't want to pay $17 mil in 2020; the player won't want to be limited to a 1-year term. So they should have some mutual interest in getting a deal done (probably not now, but after the season once the QO is made -- I guess "re-sign" might be better terminology than "extension" in that case).

It's not just increased attendance. If the team really keeps up this pace for awhile, sponsorships and ad revenue should go up significantly too. More leverage for improving TV broadcast revenue. And postseason brings its own extra revenue. And while they spend approx. 50% of their current revenue on payroll, I don't think the 50% figure necessarily holds for potential additional revenue. For example, if they reach the WS and can extract an extra $10 mil a year from FSN, it's not like their expenses/profit need to automatically go up by $5 mil. Maybe the marginal rate would be 60 or 70 percent or something.

Who cares? They're not plan their roster and payroll based on TD reaction. (Or are they? Should I use more emojis? )

Severino's extension pays him $10 mil as an arb2, doesn't seem unreasonable that Berrios would get something like that too, either in award or extension. Buxton is only making $1.75 mil in arb1 too, so I don't think he will necessarily blow way past $10 mil in arb3 in award or extension. That change plus the Rosario estimate seemed like you were trying to frame the numbers to fit your conclusion rather than the other way around.

Evidence? These same teams actually use to sign FA too but have stopped. Teams aren't too shy about rebuilding anymore. Maybe they will take one of these guys back for a Zach Duke type (like the Twins took De Jong), but they're not discounting valuable assets for MLB readiness. I just don't want to read a lot more Gonsalves trade proposals!

We're pretty close to last year's payroll right now, and we're expecting to add something midseason, so it seems more than a one-off thing. If we really keep playing like this, over 2019 and 2020, why wouldn't they push it close to $150 mil? Add a Verlander type as a final piece for a great team? They'd be raking in some good revenue by that point.

I think I already mentioned, but your revised projection is pretty close to what I'd guess at this point. Those numbers already work, even if some of your estimates are on the high side. What significant talent do you think we'd need to add in FA? We're already the second best team in baseball. But seriously, I think we've got internal replacements for Schoop and Castro. We can keep one of Gibson/Odorizzi or sign someone similar in FA. By 2021 we should have replacements for Cron, Cruz, and Marwin too. If we're signing someone to a multi-year deal, we can easily work around any 2021 commitments if we want. If it's one year contracts, then maybe some of our core isn't working out and we'll be making adjustments anyway (i.e. unloading Rosario).

If these guys prove to be second-best-record-baseball good, then they'll probably have enough trade value where we'll want to swing some deals for baseball reasons rather than salary reasons. (And as I mentioned, if they continue to be second-best-record-in-baseball good, we probably won't have a firm $130 mil salary limit in 2021 either.)

I think they're good players and they will get paid. For them, I was mainly referring to how your original $20 mil estimate became $29 mil.

It's still pretty easy to make up ground at this point in the season. Dozier is still about 73 OPS points behind Schoop, or 18 points of wRC+, but Dozier's OPS has gone up 71 points and his wRC+ 17 points in just the last 5 games (14 PA, 6 H, 2 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 HBP). Obviously that's a pretty good 5 games, but it shows what a mini hot streak can do to one's overall numbers. Of course, Schoop could go higher too (although he seems to be stabilizing?), and midseason is just a month a way. I wouldn't bet on Dozier to catch Schoop by then, but they could get close. Dozier's career numbers are still ahead of Schoop, 107 wRC+ to 98, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him gain ground.

Hey, the 1998 Vikings definitively proved that OFFENSE wins championships*! * Division championships

The Mets just extended de Grom; they just traded for Diaz, they have Syndergaard, Conforto, and Matz controlled through 2021 (and Alonso, Rosario, and McNeil even longer). They're not a perfect team, and they've got challengers in the division, but but nothing about their roster or actions suggest they are in a rebuild or close to starting one.

Ew, I hope Molitor was zero factor in the Pressly trade. (And FWIW, I seem to recall we were making changes with Pressly similar to the Astros changes, and his 2018 stat line was bearing those fruits already before the trade.)

Pressly was pretty good with the Twins in 2018. There were some articles about us working with him on the same kind of stuff Houston did too, and his last month or so with us with pretty darn great. His Astros success seems just a continuation of that process.

Thanks for putting in the work to make that list! Not sure if the Rays are "set" in the bullpen, if their bid for Kimbrel is any indication. And the Yankees and Astros might be willing to add to a strength -- they both did last year with the Britton and Pressly trades, respectively. It seems like the top contenders are rarely "set" in terms of a bullpen.

Hadn't thought of that. I think it could be close. Upthread, I had suggested one of Larnach, Jeffers, or Rortvedt (and maybe a lotto ticket?) to get Giles today. So in effect, this would be another one of those guys, plus a pitching prospect, for Stroman. Maybe you'd have to upgrade the pitching prospect? I don't think Gonsalves would be involved, especially not while he's on the shelf. I don't know how they'd view Alcala or Duran. I guess Graterol would be off limits -- Balazovic too?

Perhaps, although if his presence helps us to play Kirilloff, Larnach, and others cheaply at 1B/DH (and cover some OF too as needed), we may not need the salary relief.

To be fair, the Marlins did get top prospects for Yelich, they've just failed so far (and Yelich took off). They also got well-regarded prospects for Realmuto, although those prospects might find the same fate! I guess the Ozuna trade was more about shedding his rising salary. The Twins should be able to hold onto Rosario if that's all the market bears.

The Marlins indeed traded Ozuna after what would correlate to Rosario's 2019 season (arb1), and didn't get much in return, even coming off a 149 OPS+. Maybe that was just the Marlins being the Marlins, but there might not be a great trade opportunity available. Rosario's still primarily a corner OF with a career 111 OPS+, and a peak of 122 so far.

I won't drag this out any further, as it's abundantly clear we disagree, but just for the record: these aren't the only two options (trade Scherzer for something now, or get nothing for him in 2 years). With as good as Scherzer has been (8.7 bWAR last year, 3 bWAR already this year), and as much as his remaining salary obligation is dropping all the time, it's quite likely that Scherzer can still fetch a Graterol, Gordon, Larnach type package a year or more from now. They'll get a lot more data on their own young players in that time too, as well as the fates of Strasburg and Rendon. It's true that Scherzer gets no-trade rights if he's still in Washington at the end of this season, but I'm still not seeing that significantly weakening your estimated return. Verlander had a full no trade, wasn't quite as good as Scherzer, had an extra year of control (but also another year of cost -- Detroit had to send $16 mil to effectively pay for a chunk of that extra year), and he still fetched 50, 45, and 45 FV prospects from the Astros per Fangraphs. (The three Twins prospects you mention were 50, 50, and 40 on Fangraphs preseason list, and that was before Graterol's recent shoulder issue.) Given that you also preferred the Angels trade Trout rather than sign him long-term and render the "lose him for nothing in 2 years" aspect moot, it seems you just simply favor very aggressive rebuilding action over even 2-3 seasons of 20-40% projected playoff odds, which is fine for your personal preference, but worth noting that MLB teams generally don't seem to take that position. I hope I've helped you understand why -- trading a legit superstar like Scherzer would take those 40% down to almost zero overnight, and it would take a pretty optimistic projection from Graterol, Gordon, and Larnach, as well as other good moves, to even get back to those same 40% playoff odds in 3 years, much less top them. Teams generally consider themselves better off by keeping the legit superstar and their current chances, while working to make smart moves around the periphery to improve their chances 3 years out. (Those moves aren't always so smart, or don't always work, but then again, neither would the same front office trading Scherzer!) I'll bow out now, as I think I've said all that I can say. (Probably several times, I am sorry. )

Swap out Parker and the FA for Kimbrel and the 2021 version of 2019 Parker ($1.8 mil guarantee) and there's no extra thinness, and a net cost of only $2.3 mil more than your projection. (And a reminder: I didn't particularly want Kimbrel at that price for 2021, but I'm just saying that it can and should have been an option on the table. Hopefully the FO was right that there's a better option soon to be found!)

To be fair, his revision drops one of those (but it also shows a $133 mil payroll with $15.5 mil allocated to Parker and a FA RP)