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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Dave, I think it was your post that first led me to believe we got a real top 100 prospect back for Nunez. Did you follow the later discussion on that? Because he was #91 only on BA's midseason list, which excluded 2016 MLB graduates but didn't include new 2016 draftees or signings. Mejia was the #5 Giants prospect on that list, a system, that preseason only ranked #19 by BA. He wasn't on MLB's midseason top 100, he wasn't in Sickels preseason top 175 and might not make it this winter either -- I think he was a solid return for Nunez, but I don't think he was that surprising.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the fact that Suzuki, Abad, and Kintzler both offer relatively affordable control beyond 2016 hurts them in August waivers. A team that's no longer in contention could reasonably claim them and have waiver priority, but they would have no urgency to immediately meet the Twins trade demands either. Santana is a little bit better, as his salary would probably clear most non-contending teams, although once he falls to big spending contenders like the Dodgers or Blue Jays, they'd probably just rather take on his contract than give up good prospects. The best scenario would probably be clearing, and then having the freedom to shop them later when a new need develops, although either way, you're not likely to get much in return.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but the point of FIP and fWAR is to say, Stroman's peripherals are sound, and he doesn't have a long history of under-performing them like Nolasco (yet). Combined with the fact that Stroman is throwing more innings than Santana, and the spot they'd be filling is likely the Jays 4th starter spot (behind Sanchez, Happ, and Estrada), and it's very hard for me to see that Santana is a "big upgrade" over him. Also, Stroman's injury was not related to his pitching arm, so I wouldn't hold that against him, other to say that it gave him MLB service time without the additional MLB experience/evaluation. He looks to be arb eligible this winter as a Super-2 unless they option him soon. Still, I could see a package with Stroman as the centerpiece being a good return for Santana. Santana's got the track record, but Stroman is controlled longer, cheaper, and 8 years younger, just entering his "prime" years -- it wouldn't take too much in additional prospects to make that a good trade. If I had a big reservation, it's that I am not confident the Twins could help Stroman develop further, but that's hopefully a problem that will begin to get addressed soon. Another way to look at it: how do you value Gibson vs Santana? A number of posters have been saying they'd require a greater return to move Gibson than to move Santana right now. Well, Stroman has been better than Gibson, is younger, has less mileage on his arm (and no TJ surgery yet), with less service time...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That is definitely the concern about the starting pitchers. Nolasco isn't getting dealt today, and probably not Milone either (hence why Duffey is headed to the pen for Berrios). Even Ervin Santana stands a fair chance at clearing waivers, or at least falling far enough to give teams like Toronto a decent shot at acquiring him in August.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Modern waiver trades rarely produce worthwhile returns.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but teams aren't "buyers" in December the same way they are "buyers" in July. I think Erv's market may be similar this winter, but I doubt it will be better, which was the original assertion.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    But they also have a lot more supply in the offseason. There is no FA market right now, and a bunch of teams are unwilling to trade MLB assets (because they too are contending). I'd add, I think teams are more likely to be optimistic about players bouncing back over an offseason rather than in-season. (For example, the Twins might have more hope this winter that Nolasco will finally have a decent year in 2017, as compared to their optimism about Nolasco having a decent final two months in 2016 when he's already had 4 months of 5+ ERA pitching this year.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Bundy is out of options, yes (thanks to being one of the last draftees allowed to sign a MLB contract). But he's not arb eligible -- he was on optional assignment pretty much all of 2012-2015. He's only briefly been on a MLB disabled list, late last year. Cot's has him with only 26 days MLB service time entering this season. So he can't be arb eligible until after 2018: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/ All that said, Baltimore isn't trading him.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Big upgrade? Stroman has the same FIP and thus fWAR as Santana in 2016, plus he is averaging more IP per GS than Santana too. He was pretty darn good as a rookie (2 bWAR, 3 fWAR in just ~4 months in 2014), plus he came back pretty strong from missing 5 months for a non-arm injury in 2015. For a guy who peaked at #55 in the BA and MLB top 100, that's solid. Also, Stroman actually hasn't used any of his options yet. He was added to the 40-man roster in May 2014, and optioned for only 12 days that year (and you have to spend 20+ days on optional assignment to burn an option). He's been on the MLB roster or DL ever since then. Maybe they'd option Stroman or send him to the pen to conserve his innings this year (and bolster the pen, where Storen let them down), but I don't see them dealing him in favor of Ervin Santana. Long-term, Santana would probably replace RA Dickey, who is a free agent after the year and having a worse season than Stroman (slightly better ERA than Stroman, but much, much worse FIP).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    He had to choose the list when we most certainly could have been interested in acquiring him.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps Milwaukee did talk to him about it earlier, and gave Cleveland a chance to come to an arrangement with him (i.e. an extension, or extra cash). But it didn't work out.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the creativity of the Rosario/Abad deal. Cody Anderson seems the more likely get, as Clevinger seems pretty well regarded (B+ from Sickels). If included, Hillman would be a bigger piece than Anderson too, Sickels sounds like he might have him as a B. I am not sure they deal him without getting a C or 3B in return (they actually have 4 healthy OF who are out-performing Eddie Rosario in 2016 OPS+ right now).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    As for Sandy Alcantara of the Cardinals, Sickels also has him on the rise, suggesting a B- grade in his mid season update. Seems pretty steep for Kintzler, the Cardinals don't seem aggressive about trading prospects. Seems like they have targeted cheaper bullpen projects in the past? Their pen right now doesn't seem to bad either, yeah Rosenthal struggled and is hurt but Oh has been amazing, and they seem to have a few steady but not dominant Kintzler types already. Just noticed you also suggested sweetening the deal with a prospect, I would be curious what guys you would consider for that.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Very fun article, and good research! But I think you aim too high at times. Austin Barnes will not be a throw-in to a Nolasco-Sierra salary swap, they actually just recalled him. Also, even without Kershaw and Ryu, the Dodgers have 4 starters better than Nolasco, plus DeLeon in AAA if they choose to call him up. I don't think the Dodgers would be in a rush to make this deal before the nonwaiver deadline, and once we get to August, including Barnes would be impossible as he is on the 40-man and would not clear waivers (although I suppose he could be a PTBNL who comes over after the season). Barnes is a B- prospect by Sickels, and a good defensive catcher who is MLB ready. You have to include more value than Nolasco to get him, perhaps one of our B- prospects if the Dodgers like them, Polanco or Gonsalves? And if you acquired Barnes, why in the world would you call up Garver from AA?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Thought experiment: if we hadn't already acquired him for Nunez, would you have accepted Mejia in return for Suzuki? Abad? Kintzler? Ervin Santana?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The transaction tree is more just a trivia thing. I think absent Sulbaran, we probably would have acquired the DFA'd Nunez just the same with another fringe type prospect. That said, I hope there are even bigger things in store for this transaction tree, on the new Mejia branch!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the report! I didn't mean the Gilmartin thing to be a serious close comparison. According to Sickels, Gilmartin pretty much lost his #4 projection once he struggled in AAA in 2013 anyway, so I'd agree that Mejia definitely has the advantage right now. Just thought some of their numbers were similar, and their ages weren't too far off despite their different backgrounds.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's an interesting question. It certainly doesn't help that Milone is scuffling this year and earning $4.5 mil, but his career MLB performance to date looks not unlike Mejia's #4 type projection. And that salary may not climb much in arb, or perhaps could decline after a non-tender. Of course, it's not necessarily an either-or proposition.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    He's not a borderline top 100, unless he suddenly turns it up a notch. Nobody has him in their top 100, except BA's midseason list which excluded 2016 drafts/signings. Judging by his relative ranks from BA, MLB, and his grade from Sickels, he's probably part of a large (100+) group in consideration for 140-175 ranks overall, if more lists went down to that level. Mejia is doing just fine in terms of age, but probably not enough to warrant any bonus points. He had a better case when he reached AA 2 years ago, but he wasn't that good then. In the AFL last year and AA this year, he was probably close enough to average age (within 1.5 years) that it doesn't mean a whole lot anymore. And the AAA average pitcher age is 26.8, which you can imagine is skewed by a lot of non-prospects. But there is no shame in reaching AAA at age 23 as Mejia has done.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be, I'm no expert on that. I was thinking more statistically, and fairly generic in terms of "profile" (left handed, similar height, finesse/control oriented rather than power).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. That is encouraging -- still "projecting as a number four starter" but he also notes "with some chance to be a number three."
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the 40-man thing will be a non-issue if they make some bold moves otherwise, either aggressive trading or cuts.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Sano has been batting third, and Kepler fifth already. And for what it's worth, 3 of Polanco's 6 starts earlier this year were in the 1 or 2 spot in the lineup, so I suspect we will see him up there if/when he gets to play. The marginal increase in at-bats at this point probably isn't worth it for a guy like Buxton, who has a lot more to worry about right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Just from looking at their stats and profiles, Mejia reminds me a bit of Gilmartin.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Speaking personally, I was initially pleasantly surprised that we made a trade at all, given our reputation and still being a few days away from the deadline. Then upon further reflection, I realized that 3 days isn't that far from the deadline, and it really shouldn't have been a surprise -- Nunez was about the most obvious trade piece that TR could have possibly handed to Antony. (And of course, the revelation that Mejia is not a current "top 100" prospect in any meaningful way, as was reported on the first page of this thread.) Still a solid move that I endorse, but I don't think it tells us a whole lot about the Twins or Antony.
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