Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Washington is in a similar spot as the Mets, though -- even if the team is under-performing now, they're absolutely built to win in the near future. Rendon is a pending FA, but they still have Soto, Robles, Strasburg, Corbin, the aforementioned Scherzer, and even Doolittle is controlled for 2020. If they deal Scherzer, I have to imagine it's for an elite return.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Scherzer's deal does NOT contain any no-trade protection -- but he will gain full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player at the end of the 2019 season. So if they want to trade him, there might be some impetus to get a deal done during the 2019 season.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Beat me to the punch! Edit: although I disagree with your last line, as I don't think this would lower the prospect price.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    According to Cot's, the deferred money in Scherzer's deal is simply his 2019-2021 salaries ($35 mil each year, $105 mil total, deferred without interest to be paid over 2022-2028), so that's not too bad. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/ But he also has signing bonus installments due. $7.5 mil yet this year, and $15 mil in each of 2020-2021, so $37.5 mil. I'm guessing Washington would have to take on most of that, as it was largely used to suppress his early year salaries. "for luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer’s annual salary is $28,689,376" so I could see that as the baseline expectation for any deal -- the acquiring team takes on 3/84 or so (less the first half this year, I guess).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, by "their guys" I meant the previous FO's guys. (Darn pronouns!) Despite all the issues with the previous FO, they assembled a talented collection of ballplayers, and I think the current FO recognizes that as much as anyone. To the extent this factor could even be a tiebreaker, say between Thorpe and Smeltzer, I'm guessing it's not worth holding up a deal over it.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. And not only do I expect the Mets to hang around close enough this year, but they're built to win now. They already signed deGrom long term, and Conforto, Syndergaard, and Matz are controlled through 2021, Diaz and Lugo through 2022, plus a few more pieces beyond that. It would probably take a king's ransom to pry one of those guys away, even if they fall out of the 2019 race. Best Mets bet for 2019, if they fall out of the race, would be pending FA Zack Wheeler.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that distinction is important at all. Two-thirds of our league-dominating lineup right now is composed of the previous FO's guys. Plus our best SP and RP. As well as TD top prospects #2, 3, 5, 10, 11, 12, etc. Edit: darn pronouns!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Better yet, consume the presumed contents of your flask before you go, and I'm sure it will bring you the mental clarity required to answer this question.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    As far as I know, gates open 90 minutes before first pitch for Monday through Thursday games, and 2 hours for Friday through Sunday games. And you can freely go right up to the edge of the field down the first and third base lines at that time. I don't know about "easily". See: https://www.instructables.com/id/How-to-sneak-booze-into-a-baseball-game-or-any-eve/
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Adams doesn't have options, so it would have to be a DFA.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally agree, but I'd guess these visits may mostly occur when the MLB team is off or on the road. Still, they get the big league accommodations (travel/hotel/workout), which is probably a welcome break from minor league accommodations. I'd liken it to a working vacation, perhaps?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    In the FSL, that OPS is good for a 124 wRC+. And he's been better than that recently -- .855 OPS over the last 28 days.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Quite possibly. Depends which "top 10 prospects", of course! I'm guessing the level of guys we would prefer to deal (Rooker, Duran, etc.) probably wouldn't get the Giants to bite until July, though (if at all). Which isn't necessarily bad, as long as we keep winning -- it gives us some time to evaluate.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right, Carew always did that -- ran to first base after hitting the ball. Unlike some of my T-ball players!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Adrianza is almost 30 years old, he's a FA after 2020, and he has a career 78 wRC+ in almost 1000 MLB PA (and a MLB season high of 84 wRC+). He's useful, but not enough for most teams to give up notable value to acquire him -- especially not a team "blowing it up" as you suggest. Cave is a bit more intriguing, although his 2018 was solid but not spectacular (109 wRC+ at AAA, then 108 wRC+ in MLB with the help of a .363 BABIP). His poor start to 2019 at age 26 isn't helping. A rebuilding club should be on the lookout for guys like Adrianza and Cave on waivers or via DFA trades (exactly how the Twins acquired them), not giving up MLB assets of value to get them. (On the general subject of the Giants, Panik is of dubious value -- he may not be that different from Adrianza these days -- and Crawford might be of dubious value too given his contract/age/2019 performance. Guys like Smith, Gott, and Bumgarner might be their best/only way to bring back future potential impact players in trade -- I don't think they can afford to aim lower at AAAA/bench types when selling these assets.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Rooker alone won't get that much, at least not right now. 24 year old corner player with an 85 wRC+ and 44% K rate at AAA. That's not to say he's a lost cause or anything, he still has some potential -- but there's enough red flags that he's not going to fetch a good MLB reliever on his own right now. Also, Tyler Jay's status as a "first round draft pick" is pretty meaningless at this point. He's a marginal AA reliever. I could see a team requesting him as a throw-in due to his pedigree but he's not bringing any real value to a trade package.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless you can find another league that saw a full run increase in one year recently, I'm pretty confident the ball change is having an effect here. Especially since the next single biggest single year change in your data here is the 2019 PCL adding +.7 runs per game, also with the ball change. (My guess is that since the PCL was already an offensive-friendly environment, it's hitting a bit more of an upper bound on scoring, which is why it hasn't risen quite as much as the IL. Also, maybe its players/coaches are already a bit more adept at mitigating the effects of extreme offense?) Obviously we'll know more about the degree of the effect by the end of the year.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's another production gem from Monday night (although this is from MLB's highlights page, so I'm guessing they get the blame rather than FSN). I guess I did compare their hitting styles recently. Also, since Astudillo is more commonly known as "La Tortuga", then perhaps Luis Arraez can safely assume the nickname "Willians Astudillo."
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Only 3 starts, but his K rate has dropped by half in AAA as compared to AA, 30% to 15%.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    May is indeed out of options, so it doesn't matter -- but it takes 5 years service time to be able to decline an optional assignment (if one has options left).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, there are 27 players on track for 20+ HR in the 14 team International League. Last year, only 5 guys hit 20 HR. Yes, some got promoted midseason before they could reach 20, I'm sure, but the offensive explosion in the IL due to the juiced ball is huge. I don't mean to pick on Raley, but relative to league (wRC+), his 2019 hitting performance at AAA is still slightly worse than his 2018 hitting performance at AA, or his 2017 hitting performance at A+. And that's before accounting for the greater dependence on BABIP (Raley has a .403 BABIP right now -- I know some guys can maintain higher BABIPs in the minors, but that's Danny Santana 2014 level). That said, he's still having a solid season (especially given it's his first at AAA) and he might be a useful piece, but he's not really experiencing the kind of breakout that normally might be suggested by his AVG, OPS, and HRs.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Cron shouldn't have to look at the base in that situation, though. At least not to the extent that he misses the pitcher fielding the ball. It's right in front of him. Even if Schoop didn't do anything, Cron having to turn his head toward second base to look at Schoop already had the potential to mess up the play.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Stew posted a link to another example by Starlin Castro, also no runners on base: https://www.mlb.com/video/must-c-castro-copies-bryant-c104783183 That was a bit more "clowning" as it was right in the first baseman's line of vision. I suspect Schoop wasn't "clowning" per se but just followed through to occupy himself for a moment, and didn't expect to be seen by Cron.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    There was no one on base, so no runners to deke.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Odorizzi's play was right in front of him. So I think an error on Cron is definitely more appropriate than on Schoop.
×
×
  • Create New...