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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    But does anyone think Rob Antony will make more/better moves in the next few weeks?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Picking up from Brock's comment in the other thread: I'd add that the 2014 spring roster decisions with Antony as acting GM were not unlike many of the decisions from the Bill Smith era -- way too much deference to Gardenhire.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the "answer" question was in reference to Nunez, in the article.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think "lack of interest" would be an apt description for the Park trade market at the present time.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    So, with Yan Gomes out (potentially for the season), it will be interesting to see what Cleveland does at catcher. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/yan-gomes-dl-indians-trade-catcher.html Roberto Perez is probably more than a backup -- a good eye and decent power, plus strong defensive marks: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/17/11024080/indians-trade-roberto-perez-yan-gomes-framing-diamondbacks-nationals-hot-stove
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That's putting it mildly. According to the Baseball Cube, Davis has already matched his career college HR total (10, in 482 AB) in just 86 professional AB. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jaylin-davis
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Why call up Hildenberger now? He is still behind Chargois on the depth chart, maybe Melotakis too. He's not on the 40 man and not Rule 5 eligible this winter. Probably not worth leaving someone else unprotected this winter just to get Hildenberger a handful of innings in a lost season, no? I could see a promotion to AAA, maybe an AFL stint, to get him ready for an early 2017 debut.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    No way. I'm not that sold on Profar, and we're not that desperate for salary relief on Santana. That would be giving up 3 assets for 1. Also, Profar collected service time for his lost 2014-2015 seasons. He's already arb eligible and is scheduled to hit free agency after 2019.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    1. FA isn't the only avenue to acquire a SP for 2017-2018. (Although even in a weak market, they could probably find an interesting one year flier in FA and reassess at the deadline again next year, and an internal option might be close enough by then too. Heck, Santana himself might still be attainable at next year's deadline again.) 2. Not necessarily a better SP straight up for the 80ish prospect, but if you have that prospect and $26 mil to spend, you can probably figure out a better solution that gets you more upside for the 2016 pennant race, without precluding having enough SP for 2017-2018. Maybe the number 80ish prospect could anchor a package for Hill? Maybe you can keep your 80ish prospect, but give up a better one straight up for more upside, like the Red Sox did for Pomeranz? Most teams with $26 mil to spare probably have more cash available than that too, and can afford to get creative like the Rangers did for Hamels last year. There's are reasons that guys like Santana and his contract don't get moved much, if at all, in July. I think two of the biggest are teams want more upside than that for the stretch run, and teams willing to absorb most of the contract probably aren't too worried about filling the back end of their rotation the next couple years.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I'd probably take that too, but it feels like it might still be an overpay for the buyer. If a team has a bottom quartile top 100 prospect and $26 million to spare (Ervin's remaining guarantee minus $8 mil), it seems like they could make a stronger push in 2016 (which should be their priority right now), and still have the resources to address any remaining SP needs for 2017-2018.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's kind of my feeling too. Not that TR's record is terrible, but the consistent playoff failures, combined with multiple long rebuilds, ultimately make it a little underwhelming. Maybe it's more accurately the TR/Smith/Antony + Gardy/Molitor combo, but even if they right the ship, I don't have a lot of confidence that the next few years are going to turn out much different than the last 20 have, collectively.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, those are subjective terms. What's a fair offer, to you? Sorry if I missed it upthread. In my opinion, the posters debating about a certain type/level of top 100 prospect were pretty much looking for an overpay.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, although it's probably a sign that other teams will approach the market similarly. As much as Ervin isn't bad, and Pomeranz has a limited track record, teams are probably looking to gamble on upside right now, even if they don't just want a pure 2 month rental. From the MLBTR piece, I note that Pomeranz was in a pretty big group of "controllable arms", while Ervin is relegated to the "big contracts" group. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/trade-market-for-starting-pitchers-4.html It's unlikely that anyone will feel compelled to overpay to get Ervin Santana on his remaining contract.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Lindor's minor league components (BB%, K%, ISO) look much closer to Crawford's so far, than to Gordon's. Lindor was another guy with almost as many walks as strikeouts. Not that Gordon's components are bad, but it's a little harder to project future hitting success from them right now. His BB% is notably below the FSL average, and his K% is only a hair better. He probably needs to add something to his offensive profile (power? walks? fewer strikeouts?) along with the good BABIP to have a shot at being an outstanding MLB hitter down the line. (Not that Crawford will achieve that either, but he's got a better chance right now according to the prospect hounds.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I admit that Gordon currently has a slightly higher wRC+ in the FSL than Crawford's first year there. But wRC+ is a little too broad to conclude "better bat" based on that slight advantage. Crawford still has the advantage in most components (BB%, K%, ISO) outside of batting average (where he was no slouch at .275). Also, if you include Crawford's games at high-A to begin the following season (when he was still younger than Gordon is now), he actually had an overall 138 wRC+ at the level, in almost exactly the same number of games/AB. And almost as many walks as strikeouts! http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa737507&position=SS&type=-2&gds=2014-06-19&gde=2015-05-29&season= And beyond high-A, repeating a ~120 wRC+ with strong components at a young age at higher levels is a huge factor too. If Gordon is doing this at AAA in a year, he'll probably jump pretty high in the rankings too, particularly if he can improve his components (and rely a little less on BABIP).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    "Better bat"? If you mean batting average, that's true, but Crawford had a pretty similar wRC+ in the FSL with much better K% and BB% (and was a year younger than Gordon when he hit that level). Also, "higher slugging percentage" is double-counting Gordon's current advantage in batting average. Gordon's isolated power is actually lower than Crawford's at the same level. He's not really "slugging" better than Crawford. Not a knock on Gordon, he's still a solid prospect doing well, but there's a reason why Crawford was/is rated higher. Heck, Crawford is less than a year older than Gordon, and has already maintained those great K% and BB% figures all the way to the doorstep of MLB (even if the rest of his batting line still isn't overwhelming).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just the K rate -- he's giving up a lot of hits and walks too, and it's leading to runs (both earned and unearned). Rosario has a 5.23 RAvg, compared to the FSL average of 4.08. Last year he had a 5.20 compared to the Midwest League average of 4.29. I'd stick him in the bullpen now and see how he responds, before I have to make more 40-man decisions this winter.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Does Randy Rosario survive the winter on the 40-man roster?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not even close to all-in. Kielty was a few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, with 750 MLB PA at the time of the trade. It would be like if we traded Grossman now.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks has a 153 wRC+ in AAA this year, compared to Murphy's 57. Would have been nice to be able to give him a MLB audition if Murphy wasn't ready. Wonder if he will get a call from the Tigers soon.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I thought that too, although the example in that link (Santiago Casilla) was also widely reported as a club option. Much like Ervin's. Just seemed odd that Suzuki's was never reported that way, although I suppose no one expected the team would want to exercise it if given the choice.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If Suzuki's option next year can be exercised by the team, shouldn't it be called a "team option" somewhere? I have not seen that. For example, Ervin Santana has a "team option" on his current deal, which can also vest based on IP. By comparison, Suzuki's has only been reported as a "vesting option" with no mention of team/player. Maybe it is just semantics, and any vesting option is also assumed to be a team option? It is strange because it is usually explicitly defined, like Santana's.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    As inexpensive as Suzuki may be this year, he actually has a higher salary than either Lucroy or Norris, both this year and if his option is exercised next year.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps cross off Boston as a potential Ervin destination -- they just got Pomeranz: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/padres-trade-drew-pomeranz-red-sox.html?fv-home=true&post-id=67095
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And it sounds like the Rays will get Jepsen back anyway: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rays-in-talks-with-kevin-jepsen.html
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