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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams will protect A-ballers who are good, because they would get selected. If Graterol had been Rule 5 eligible last winter, he would have been added to our 40-man then, despite having not yet reached AA. Thorpe, Polanco, and Kepler were all protected out of A-ball too. Obviously it's easier for some teams to stash players than others, but someone will stash a good prospect even if they're in A-ball. Especially pitchers, as it seems easier to stash them at the end of the pen (or on the DL). Javier could test the theory, for position players at least, this winter -- not sure if he'll have time to advance to AA in 2019.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB already got an extra year before Rule 5 eligibility for all players in 2006. Under the current rules, Johan Santana wouldn't have been eligible for selection in Dec. 1999, and would have been property of the Astros for at least one year longer. Beyond that, remember that when guys like Polanco or Thorpe take a 40-man spot, they're not necessarily bumping any meaningful contributors from a spot. Most teams have a few fringe guys on the roster at any given time anyway. And Polanco should have been eligible for a 4th option year (if not for an unrelated issue), and Thorpe is on track for a 4th option year as well, which helps make up for having to add them early. So I could see how further Rule 5 protection might not be a bargaining priority for MLB teams.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but Harper has largely been used in lower leverage spots so far -- a .78 gmLI (game-entering leverage index). 1.0 is average. Trusted relievers are generally at 1.2 or higher; top set-up men and closers around 1.7. Hildenberger led the Twins with a 2.01 gmLI so far in 2019, and someone else is going to have to step into those spots now (and perhaps be exposed): https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2019.shtml#players_value_pitching::14
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    True. I guess they could transfer Reed to the 60-day DL without any real cost, except he couldn't be activated until May 27th at the earliest. It doesn't look like he would be activated before then anyway! Edit to add: Reed's 30 days of rehab can run up through June 5th. Although they could sit him for at least a week and reassign him to a new rehab stint -- we did that with Ervin last year when he experienced a setback on his first rehab. Gets a little tricky, because Reed may consider himself healthy enough at some point to object to that. Phil Hughes was in a similar spot last year -- healthy enough to pitch, but not pitch well, so the 60-day DL wasn't really an option. We chose to DFA/trade him, and the Padres had to release him, rather than 60-day DL him.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    They could do that too, but I'm guessing they'd feel such a move was premature for Garver and probably even Reed, given that the former could still be back sooner than 60 days and the latter is apparently healthy enough to pitch (although not pitch well). If DFA Torreyes wasn't an option, perhaps they'd consider it, though. Or maybe they just wouldn't have added Adams in that case.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, the International League K% is 23.2%. Five years ago, it was only 19.4%. I imagine it would be higher for relievers than starters too, but I don't know that split.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, they will need to open a 40-man spot. (I forgot that Morin already took De Jong's open spot.) But it would be rather easy to cut Ronald Torreyes at this point. He might get claimed with his option remaining, but he's hitting .128 in AAA and has no path toward playing time in the MLB infield.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, but it's worth noting the AAA phase is completely different than the MLB phase. Each minor league club gets its own protection list, in addition to the MLB 40-man roster list. So the only guys available in the AAA phase are significantly more marginal than the MLB phase selections. Over the last ~13 years, the most notable picks in the minor league phase appear to be Omar Narvaez, Justin Bour, and Brian Buscher. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    There's absolutely no risk of letting Graterol go, no matter how we develop him this season. We just have to add him to the 40-man by November, which we can do regardless of what level he pitches at. The upside of rushing him would be, if we have to add him to the 40-man in November anyway, we could add him on Sep. 1st and get a month of him in MLB without burning an option year (just the 30 days service time). But given his innings restrictions, it's hard to see him pitching through September, unless he misses a portion of the season earlier. He seems like a pretty clear Sep. 1st shutdown candidate, like Romero 2017 before him. Mind you, I'd love to see him move up quickly and succeed, of course!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if they had a lot of school groups in attendance.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it's been mentioned elsewhere, but there wasn't much discussion, so I thought I'd give Adams his own thread. "Twins Option Trevor Hildenberger, Will Select Austin Adams" https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/twins-demote-option-trevor-hildenberger-select-austin-adams.html Adams is out of options (as you might guess, given that he's 32 years old with experience across 3 MLB seasons). That 3.78 ERA season with Cleveland was in mop-up usage (.44 gmLI, similar to the very last guys in recent Twins pens, like Breslow, Hughes, Dean, Drake), and a very low K% (15%). His modest success then was mostly due to a low HR rate (his xFIP was about a run higher). But as the excerpt above suggests, perhaps he's a different pitcher now? He has never really sustained a ground ball rate above ~48% before, or a K% approaching 36% before. It's also fair to ask whether 36% K% at AAA is even meaningful anymore -- old friend Oliver Drake is at 46.1% this year. A lot of older guys on this list who probably won't make much difference in MLB: https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=2,4&qual=10&type=1&season=2019&team=0&players=0&sort=8,d Is Adams a diamond in the rough, or a placeholder? There weren't many attractive options for relievers at AAA to replace Hildenberger right now, so it's not clear. EDIT TO ADD: It was mentioned in the comments that the Twins 40-man is full, so another move will have to be made. I suspect Ronald Torreyes will be DFA.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Or hit him with a pitch in a key at-bat.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mind poking fun at the Marlins, but the degree to which they make "bad trades" these days is probably overrated. The Yelich trade looks bad, but the Marlins did get some highly rated prospects for him -- they've just busted so far, and Yelich took his game to another level. They likewise got an elite SP prospect for Realmuto too, even if that doesn't work out for them. Their other deals have been driven by larger salary dumps (Stanton, Gordon, Ozuna), or misguided attempts to contend (Fernando Rodney). Neither of those would seem to apply to an asset like Caleb Smith, or even Jose Urena, or perhaps anyone now that they are nowhere near contention and their current payroll level is probably ideal (low, but not too low as to draw the ire of MLB and the MLBPA). Still wouldn't hurt to keep an open dialogue, but I wouldn't count on getting good talent cheaply from them right now.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mean to be "that guy" (and perhaps you already know but it's a typo or autocorrect) but in the interest of spreading knowledge, the correct word here is "rein", as in a horse's reins, which need to be controlled ("reined in", "pull back the reins"). Not "reign" like a monarch does (although if we were fans of Royals, maybe it would qualify as witty wordplay!).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Rodriguez. We haven't signed him yet. We're the favorites to sign him once the new international signing period begins July 2nd.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref just introduced their own playoff odds page. It has the Twins narrowly edging Cleveland for the division: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-playoff-odds.shtml
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Just judging by his usage/advancement, I'm guessing the Dodgers saw Bray as an org-depth fill in. Maybe they would have been fine to keep him in that role, or maybe they were considering releasing him in the near future anyway to open up a spot for someone else, and his name came up in conversation with the Twins and they let him go to pursue that opportunity, as a bit of reward for being a good organizational solider. I don't know what that requires in return from the Twins -- a nominal amount of cash (like a 33rd round pick's signing bonus), or a little extra cash, or zero cash but unspecified "future considerations"? A question for Jack Goin, perhaps? But it seems to make the most sense, in this situation.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Another honorable mention among partial seasons: through his first 175 PA of 2001, Christian Guzman had a .885 OPS, or roughly a 133 OPS+ or so.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco has a 166 wRC+ through 168 PA this season. But he himself also had a 172 wRC+ over a 170 PA stretch in August/September 2017. Which is encouraging, that he's been capable of this before. But should also give us pause to consider how likely he is to sustain this level for a whole season. His .293 ISO so far in 2019 would have been like Trout/Betts level in 2018 -- a power spike at age 25/26 wouldn't be unexpected, but spiking that much probably would be!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know that anyone ever doubted Marwin's ability to post a 81 wRC+ for the season. Let's hope he keeps his hot streak going, to significantly best his career 102 mark.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    What was Carew's best two month stretch by OPS+? FWIW, it looks like Brian Dozier topped Carew's best seasonal wRC+ (can't find monthly OPS+, sorry) at 2B over several different two-month periods (and even one four-month period): May/June 2015, June/July 2016, August/September 2016, and August/September 2017. Knoblauch probably did likewise over his best stretches.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Truly great? Polanco was truly great in August of 2017, with a 189 wRC+. But the rest of his MLB career has been pretty average, up until now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    A trade return was never announced. Probably a marginal amount of cash? I'm guessing the Dodgers did it as a favor to give him an opportunity.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins felt desperate for wins the past two days? At 25-13 (now 25-15)?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess I should have also noted the sample size. It was only 736 PA for the season. 115-130 PA each month. So you'd expect to see some variation similar to player's monthly overall performance?
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