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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Best of luck to Jepsen, but glad to see the Twins do this. He wasn't helping the team, and his value wasn't going to bounce back anytime soon.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    And Mauer wound up at .718 last year, and .732 the year before. He's got a .730 OPS over his last 15 months. I agree that I can't get worked up about his 2016 performance, because there is nothing unexpected about it, or the Twins continued usage of him.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you're mostly joking, but there should be no reason Berrios has to be shut down at any point this year, unless we suspect he is hurt. He threw 166 innings last year. Even if your comment became true (that he makes 4 more AAA starts, covering 30 innings), he'd be at 114 total for the season with only ~12 turns through the MLB rotation remaining. Even if he managed to average 6 innings per start in those, he'd finish at 186. That would be the smallest year-to-year innings increase, either in raw totals (20 innings) or by percentage (~12%), of his pro career to date. Of course, I certainly don't need to see him make 4 more starts in AAA either...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    People are assuming it not just because he appeared in relief -- but because they also haven't said anything to the contrary. Teams usually announce changes like this. The relief appearance, with the 96 MPH velocity, AND the absence of an announcement strongly suggest that they are not changing anything in regards to May at the present time. Do you think the Twins are actively moving him back to the rotation right now and are just keeping it secret? For what reason? Don't tell me it's to boost the trade value of Santana, Nolasco, and Milone...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick wrote, "May made his first rehab appearance in Rochester as a reliever yesterday, which isn't the most promising sign, but hopefully the plan changes." The relief appearance is a relatively small component of the complaint. It's the larger plan (or lack thereof).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is really complaining just because his first rehab appearance was in relief. I think people are complaining that there has been no mention of a plan for him to start again this season, which should be a rather obvious objective by now.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Good question! Nunez is making $1.48 mil this year. While his good performance this year will boost it, arb increases seem relative to previous salary too. Probably $3-4 mil for Nunez next year, depending on his second half?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I know this is the part of the "find anything positive about Adam Brett Walker" joke/meme, but I'm not sure the evidence supports it anyway. Buxton has played both with and without Walker at only two levels: A+ without Walker (2013): 155 wRC+ A+ with Walker (2014): 106 wRC+ AAA without Walker (2015): 190 wRC+ AAA with Walker (2016): 189 wRC+
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I keep reading the title of this article as "Would Eduardo Nunez Trade You?" I don't know the answer to that question.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton won't be out of options until the spring of 2019, at the earliest. I think that is fairly distant, at this point.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    As for 1984, Willie Hernandez winning both the MVP and Cy Young is almost by definition the weirdest award season ever, regardless of what happened further down the ballot!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    You also have to remember, top baseball minds gave Palmeiro a gold glove when he only played 28 games in the field, and that was as recently as 1999. I would guess that 12 years earlier, in 1987, when they were considering their all-star roster, they still viewed Carter as an outfielder (indeed, he was never a primary first basemen before or after that year). Also, while Carter had the success of 1986, plus 20 HR and more RBIs than Hrbek at the break in 1987, Carter's batting average, like Hrbek's, was especially low for much of that first half, still under .240 just days before the all-star rosters were announced.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, while B-Ref is fantastic, I find that Fangraphs is pretty sweet for viewing splits like this for the whole league. For a modern metric view, note that Hrbek was only 4th in AL among 1B in first half wRC+ in 1987 (setting aside Dwight Evans, who accumulated most of his 1B time in the second half that year): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=1987&month=30&season1=1987&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d 5th in oWAR. 2nd in HR, but only 3rd in ISO and SLG, 7th in RBI, 10th in AVG, etc. Joe Carter was actually primarily a 1B that year too, and he had 20 HR and 67 RBI at the break.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Cool article, Bill. I didn't know the Hrbek all-star story, and I love these kinds of exercises. While first-half splits are a decent shortcut, they're not a good snapshot for when the rosters were actually decided. They were announced on July 9, so only stats through July 8th were known at the time. Not a huge deal, but it closes the ERA gap and widens the W-L gap between Viola and Hurst a little bit, for example. Although actually, while rosters were announced July 9, they were probably put together in the preceding weeks, and here we can see a few more trends. As of July 1st, Hurst actually had a better ERA than Viola, and a notably better W-L record too (9-5 vs 6-6). And Viola's best performances were more recent, as his season ERA was still above 4.00 into early June, while Hurst's season ERA had been below 3.50 since April. And past history is important too -- while Hurst being a Red Sox player was no small part of the equation, he also had a 2.99 ERA the previous year (1986), while Viola had a 4.51 mark, looking more like an innings eater that year and in 1985 than an all-star level performer. Viola's most recent "all-star" level performance was way back in 1984. Similar trends can be seen looking at Hrbek vs. Tabler. Tabler actually batted .326 in 1986, 4th in the league, and in 1987 he was at in that range again through mid-June, before dropping to .308 at the break. At the beginning of June, it appears Tabler was basically neck-and-neck with superstars Boggs, Puckett, and Trammel for the AL batting average lead. Meanwhile, Hrbek's 1987 season average dipped as low as the .220s in mid-May, and even as late as June 18th Tabler had a higher season OPS than Hrbek. After that, Hrbek had 9 HR over 15 games, but I suspect the decision to favor Tabler was already largely made. Also, I wouldn't underestimate the importance put on batting average in 1987. And I think some of Hrbek's complaint is because he wasn't looking at this own numbers in the context of the lively ball that year. 23 HR at the break would have led the entire MLB in every other year of Hrbek's career to that point, but in 1987 it was only good for 3rd place in the AL, and 7th in MLB, with a ton of ~20 HR guys right behind him.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorta. Although Polanco is cheap, and Nishi was actually more expensive than Hardy. And while he is still young, I'd venture that Polanco is probably more projectible as a competent MLB player now than Nishi was at the time. Also, I don't know that many people have advocated dealing Dozier even for a Hoey-level return. If that was really the best offer right now, pretty sure all but the most extreme posters here would pass. (Dozier's remaining guarantee of ~$16.67 mil would represent more significant salary relief than Hardy's $5.85 mil, although we didn't need that level of salary relief then or now.) Interestingly, Hardy at the time of the trade was actually younger than Dozier is now too. I think a lot more posters would endorse sending Plouffe packing for pure salary relief, since he's likely to be a deserving non-tender in the offseason anyway, and it would open a spot at 3B for Sano and perhaps some opportunities for Polanco as well.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like you might prefer their "season to date stats mode" which projects only a .383 winning percentage the rest of the way, 35-57 for a final record of 57-105: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=1&lg=div&date=current
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    "Injury prone" was about as valid an excuse to deal Hardy, as Gardy wanting more speed from his middle infielders. That might be the worst trade in modern Twins history. I mean, it doesn't appear we were even trying to get value back for him, just wanting someone to take his salary after we signed Nishioka instead. Seriously, a starting MLB shortstop for a 28 year old minor league reliever with ~6 BB/9 the previous two seasons mostly in AA...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs actually says 42-50 now, which at .462 is just a bit under our preseason projection there (.481).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler had a rapidly improving 133 wRC+ at AAA, with a 10.9% K rate, and wasn't a month removed from a staggering 50% MLB K rate like Buxton. He was most definitely a plausible candidate for promotion. Even if you wanted to keep Kepler on the farm longer, while Grossman isn't a CF, he is more than qualified to play CF for a few weeks on an MLB team with a .300 winning percentage. Given the bodies we've run out there over the past few years, I'm not sure why we'd suddenly adhere to stricter standards at the position in June 2016 to the point of jerking around an elite young prospect. (And benching and subsequently cutting Arcia too.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, although Hernandez is far from a serious loss yet either. And even now, 8 years after his Rule 5 selection, Cabrera has only averaged 1-1.4 WAR per 500 PA in MLB, much of that coming in one season with what looks like an outlier K rate. Although this is quibbling at the margins. The Twins haven't lacked the 40-man space to protect these guys, and having options through age 24 for 16 year old international signees should offer plenty of time to develop them.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    As I mentioned above, the problem with Polanco's options ending this year is not due to when they protected him, but that they gave him 92 active days in rookie league ball in 2010, so it counted as a full season. Other than that, he should be in the same boat as Kepler, with a fourth option year in 2017. Polanco would have been an aggressive Rule 5 choice after 2013, certainly, but potentially a very good one. Middle infielder, a 127 wRC+ and only a 11.3% K rate in full season ball. Compared to Kepler, OF/1B, 105 wRC+, 16.3% K rate in the same league. Or Arcia, corner OF with a 107 wRC+, 23.3% K rate in high-A in 2011. I suspect the Twins aren't out of line by protecting these guys though -- from what I recall of checking Rule 5 previews, there generally aren't guys like Polanco circa 2013 being left unprotected.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. Although, at the time of his Rule 5 selection, Cabrera was 22 years old. Kepler and Polanco would have been 20. Arcia would have been 20 too. It's somewhat moot though anyway, as Kepler does have an option left next year, and Polanco would too if not for ~3 days of roster weirdness in his first pro season of 2010. And we were still able to option Arcia last year in his age 24 season.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Buxton didn't use an option last year. He only spent 10 days on optional assignment in August. Less than 20 days on optional assignment in a season doesn't use an option year: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly. Obviously no one would make Arcia the everyday CF, and he would probably never need to play the spot if guys like Rosario, Kepler, or even Grossman were also on the roster -- but keeping Arcia's bat in the lineup should have been a greater priority than giving reps to the veteran backup CF or utility guy du jour (Thomas, Mastroianni, Schafer, Robinson).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, that is kinda the point of the criticism. The Twins were stockpiling placeholders, and adding/extending more.
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