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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Rogers has 14 appearances this season. Only once has he entered a game trailing, and it was by only 1 run in the 8th inning. So according to that usage pattern, there was really only one opportunity to bring him in this weekend -- game 1 Saturday, especially once we tied the game. And indeed Rogers was warming up alongside Hildenberger in the 8th inning, as I recall. But Hildy hadn't been over-worked either, and should have been able to get through the Tigers 7-8-9 hitters, all RHB. I suspect we would have seen Rogers, if Hildy had allowed a baserunner while the game was still tied, but he gave up a dinger instead.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2018 Dodgers wRC+ with 2 outs and RISP, by month: March/April: 102 May: 26 June: 129 July: 68 August: 61 Sep./Oct.: 66 Here's the link (you have to manually change the "Group By" drop-down menu to "Month"): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=56,59,216&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&players=&filter= For the season, the Dodgers were at 75. The two worst full season marks in 2018 were BAL (57) and SFG (65).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    How often do guys spend 30 days of rehab at AAA? Seems like most guys with that expectation start at Ft Myers and work their way back up the ladder. I feel like we will either be seeing Addison Reed in MLB, or he'll go back on the shelf, much sooner than 30 days.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't understand. The trade seems largely a separate decision from whether to re-sign him, no? Otherwise, you could argue that accepting Forsythe neutralized your "opportunity gain" because it increased our risk that we'd sign him for 2019 instead. That said, it was a fine trade, in that Dozier was a low value expiring asset on a non-playoff team -- might as well cash him in. But I wouldn't count any chickens before they hatch and start awarding bonus points for the trade yet -- I've seen too many guys post minor league lines like Smeltzer and Raley and still turn out to be relative MLB nonentities.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean to suggest or imply otherwise. But it's all completely irrelevant to the argument that Bumgarner (or any pending FA) would want/need an extension to accept a trade in July.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar didn't sign an extension at the deadline, he re-signed with Arizona after the season ended. That's not unusual -- Shannon Stewart did it, etc. Bumgarner might do that too, but in the context of this discussion -- where a poster suggested that an extension demand could be a condition required for him to waive his no-trade -- it doesn't really apply.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I highly doubt Bumgarner would even want an extension, as a pending FA. (Has a pending FA ever received an extension from a new team at the deadline before?) He almost certainly wants to hit the open market, hopefully with a great finish/postseason behind him. And he probably also doesn't want to be rushed into a sudden multiyear commitment with an unfamiliar org midseason either. More than likely, the no trade clause will be invoked to give him some control over his destination, and maybe a small cash bonus.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that even Raley's wRC+ is the same at AAA as it was at AA for the Twins last year, despite an over 100 point difference in OPS. Worse than average K% and BB% and a .371 BABIP too. Edit to add: Raley did manage to go 0-for-6 in that wild 20-18, 15 HR game last month, so at least that's not boosting his numbers!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sympathetic to players in that situation, but they do get a MLB paycheck and service time while they are in DFA limbo. Even two days on waivers is worth ~$6k for a league minimum player; a full 7 day DFA could be worth ~$21k. And they get a few days warning about their possible move (as opposed to all of the players who are traded/demoted suddenly without warning), and of course a chance at another MLB roster spot. Oliver Drake wound up making a lot of money because his teams couldn't freely send him to the minors.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It feels like that should be the case -- but in this specific case, I'm not sure there's even correlation here, much less causation. Reed threw 265 pitches over the first 40 days of 2016; he threw 281 over the first 40 days of 2017. And you think we can say he was definitely overworked by throwing 270 over the first 40 days of 2018? There's nothing to suggest that 200 pitches over 40 days should be any kind of baseline, much less than 270 over 40 days is particularly egregious. There's so much randomness and noise about player performance and injuries, it's almost impossible to judge based on the kind of information we have here. Mind you, I'm not saying there's no limit, but you can't get too fine in these judgements. Egregious usage, to me, would have to be something rare -- a reliever throwing 50 pitches in a game when he hasn't done that in forever; a high-stress 40-pitch inning; some amateur throwing 130+ pitches every other day in a tournament somewhere.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I know that. That's why I put "unrestricted" in quotes. For this mid-tier level of free agents in particular, though, a QO often effectively acts as a sort of restriction, although technically yes, they can still sign anywhere for any amount they can get. It can just be a bit harder to get an equivalent offer elsewhere with the draft pick attached.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That was a special kind of waivers called trade assignment waivers, and you're right, it doesn't exist anymore. July 31st is the only trade deadline day now. Those waivers never had anything to do with DFA or outrighting, though, just trades. Edit: and as Jeremy noted below, those August trade waivers were the only waivers that were "revocable". So there is no longer such a thing -- all remaining waivers are now irrevocable.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay. The post you responded to said "I guess the Twins could get international bonus money (the new PTBNL) or another flawed player without options like Tyler Austin" so I guess I assumed you were disagreeing with that take? It seemed accurate to me.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say they weren't negotiating in good faith. But they may not have wanted to give Berrios the Severino/Nola money a year ahead of schedule. They could have been looking for a bigger discount than Berrios was willing to give at this point. But Berrios might still agree to a Severino/Nola type deal if it's offered next offseason.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, I'm not necessarily advocating or predicting Adrianza getting cut either. I expect Cave will go first, and then perhaps a reliever, and that's okay.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say trash heap, but who's going to give up anything of value for him? Iglesias was 22nd in wRC+, and 15th in WAR, and he had to take a late minor league deal with the Reds. There are a few teams with poor shortstop production, but they generally have another player they'd rather invest at-bats in, than an almost 30 year old utility guy with a peak 84 wRC+, 70 ZiPS projection, and a guaranteed $1.3 mil salary. Shortstops as a whole had a 97 wRC+ last year, so while some guys wind up around 80, teams generally want to aim higher (or at least younger, or cheaper) than that. Just eyeballing the teams with below-average SS production so far in 2019 at B-Ref, I only see one where I might prefer Adrianza to their current starting personnel: Pittsburgh. But then again, Pittsburgh is also frugal, so the $1.3 mil salary might come into play, and if they know the Twins are looking to unload Adrianza, they'll probably just wait to grab him on waivers or only offer a token PTBNL. Someone else might take him off our hands as a utility player, but again they probably aren't interested in paying much for the privilege.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Melville are Dean are just reporting to AAA for now -- the Rockies purchased their contracts from independent league teams, but haven't added them to their MLB roster at this time.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick Burdi diagnosed with nerve injury: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/nick-burdi-diagnosed-with-nerve-injury.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Javier is regarded well enough, he wouldn't go unselected in Rule 5 in any era. (Although he may have a few more obvious suitors now.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Smeltzer has been way more impressive than Raley so far. Although even then, impressive minor league pitching performances may not mean much -- remember Littell's incredible run in 2017? Until one of these players becomes a contributor at the MLB level, I am not sure anything should really change our view of the trade. (And mind you, I don't think it was a bad trade at all.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Another poster just said games was a more important factor than innings or pitches. +70 pitches over 40 days might be completely meaningless in terms of "overuse" depending on their distribution. There is so much noise and randomness, unless something is really egregious, I don't think we can confidently point to usage as much of a factor in most situations.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to control over Berrios, we also have a team option on Perez for 2020. Also, "unrestricted" might be too far for the rest -- Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda are eligible to receive a qualifying offer. True, it would be a high salary, and they may not be worth it, but forcing other teams to give up a draft pick could also give us extra leverage to negotiate a better deal for their services. (Looking way ahead, Perez could get a QO after 2020 too. Hope he's worth it! )
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Right now, Javier is graded as a Future Value (FV) of 45+ at Fangraphs. The Orioles top pick in Rule 5 this year was an infielder with FV 40. Burdi was FV 40 when he was picked 3rd. Most of the guys picked in Rule 5 don't even get FV scores, which shows you their relative status as prospects! Barring some unusual collapse or injury this season, I think Javier would be a guaranteed Rule 5 selection if left unprotected, and likely the top pick. One of the rebuilding clubs would easily grab a $4 mil international signing from a few years ago at the cost of a roster spot. His checkered health history might even make it easier to stash him on the DL for a portion of the season too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The minor league portion of Rule 5 is very different. Each minor league club gets to protect a certain number of players too, in addition to the guys already protected on the MLB 40-man. Anyone viewed as remotely on the bubble for the major league Rule 5 draft would certainly be protected for the minor league portion.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    May and Hildenberger have as many game appearances in 2019 as Reed and Pressly had at this point in 2018 too. Is that meaningful? Is -2 appearances over ~40 days meaningful for Rogers? Also, I don't think anyone has a "sixth sense" about these issues, that they can divine meaning from these minor variations in usage patterns. Their conclusions are probably just following the larger narratives of the time -- that the 2018 team and Molitor were disappointing, the 2019 team is surprisingly good, etc.
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